Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for HUTCHMED (HCM) with a 12-month price target of $18 for the ADR listed in the US, indicating a potential upside of 32.4% from the current price of $13.60 [12][14]. Core Insights - Increased investor focus is expected on savolitinib following data presentations at ASCO, with the company highlighting severe under-detection of MET amplification when using NGS testing compared to FISH testing [1][2]. - The company’s internal unpublished data suggests that only about 30% of patients who test positive for MET amplification via FISH would also test positive using the NGS method [2]. - The global Phase 3 SAFRON study of savolitinib in combination with osimertinib will offer patients the option of two companion diagnostics: FISH and IHC methods [2]. Summary by Sections MET Amplification Testing - Testing for MET amplification is crucial for patient selection, with a cross-study analysis indicating that NGS testing severely under-detects the biomarker compared to FISH [2]. - The MARIPOSA-2 study detected MET amplification in 14% of patients using ctDNA NGS, while the SACHI study showed approximately 30% detection using tissue FISH [5]. Clinical Efficacy - The SACHI study demonstrated a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 8.2 months for the savolitinib plus osimertinib combination compared to 4.5 months for chemotherapy, with a statistically significant hazard ratio of 0.34 [5][6]. - For patients previously treated with a 3rd-generation EGFR TKI, the median PFS was 6.9 months for the combination arm versus 3.0 months for chemotherapy, also showing a significant difference [6]. Safety Profile - The SAVANNAH study indicated a promising PFS curve separation with a manageable safety profile, although adverse events leading to dose interruption of savolitinib occurred in approximately 48% of patients [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Xtep International Holdings with a 12-month price target of HK$7.00, indicating an upside potential of 19.9% from the current price of HK$5.84 [10][11]. Core Insights - The company has reiterated its full-year guidance, expecting positive sales growth at the group level, with Saucony and Merrell brands projected to achieve 30%-40% sales growth and over 10% year-on-year net profit growth [2][10]. - Xtep's core business has maintained stable discount levels in the second quarter of 2025, attributed to healthy inventory levels [7][10]. - Management believes that Xtep's established brand recognition and ecosystem provide a competitive advantage in the growing running category [7][10]. Summary by Sections Full Year Guidance - The company expects to deliver positive sales growth at the group level, with Saucony and Merrell brands projected to achieve 30%-40% sales growth and over 10% year-on-year net profit growth [2][10]. Xtep Core - The discount level has remained stable in the second quarter of 2025 due to healthy inventory levels, and the brand is focusing on maintaining stable profit margins [7][10]. Saucony Brand - In the second half of 2025, management anticipates a broader product assortment to meet functional and fashion demands, including new fabrics and an increased focus on women's products, aiming to raise the female sales mix from 10-20% to 30% within the next 1-2 years [4][8]. - The company aims to double Saucony's revenue by 2027 through store expansion, targeting 30-50 new stores annually and enhancing store productivity [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Anta Sports Products with a 12-month price target of HK$117, indicating an upside potential of 24.1% from the current price of HK$94.25 [14][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for Anta Group, supported by solid year-to-date trading performance and effective execution across its brand portfolio. The completion of the Jack Wolfskin acquisition is noted, although its impact on forecasts has not yet been incorporated [7][14]. - The management's focus on Fila's reform under the new CEO aims for sustainable growth rather than immediate margin improvements, with specific strategies including enhanced product functionality and targeted marketing efforts [9][10]. - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming 618 shopping festival, with expectations of increased online sales and a healthy inventory level across most brands, although discounts are anticipated due to a higher online sales mix [7][11]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - May online sales benefited from the early start of the 618 shopping festival, while offline sales faced challenges due to unfavorable weather conditions. The company expects to see more discounts leading into the festival [7][11]. Brand Performance - Anta brand's performance aligns with expectations, with new initiatives showing promise. The running category remains strong, accounting for over 40% of footwear volume, while basketball performance is still challenging [11]. Margin Outlook - The report indicates that the operating profit margin (OPM) for Anta and Fila brands is expected to remain relatively flat, with Descente's margin at approximately 30%. There is room for improvement for Kolon and MAIA brands [10][11]. Fila Reform - Fila's new CEO is committed to a mid-single-digit percentage growth target by 2025, focusing on product refinement and marketing strategies to enhance brand positioning [9][10]. Jack Wolfskin and Future M&A - The management anticipates that the Jack Wolfskin acquisition will have a limited impact in the first half of 2025 but will be margin-dilutive for the full year. Future M&A opportunities are identified in brands specializing in female products and premium running [12][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of HK$33.50, representing an upside of 34.0% from the current price of HK$25.00 [9]. Core Insights - China Resources Beer (CRB) has shown continued solid performance in May, driven primarily by Heineken, which sustained over 20% year-on-year volume growth [6][7]. - The overall operating run-rate for CRB's beer volume growth in May was above the volume growth of SD% in 1Q25, with a mild increase in blended average selling price (ASP) and positive margin profiles [6][10]. - Management noted a healthy channel inventory maintained at largely one month of sales, with positive volume growth across mass-market to premium segments [6][10]. Summary by Sections Volume Growth and Performance - CRB's beer volume growth in May trended similarly to April, exceeding the volume growth of SD% in 1Q25 [6]. - Heineken remains the key volume driver, achieving over 20% year-on-year growth in May [7]. - Pure Draft experienced a narrower volume decline year-on-year in May compared to April and 1Q25, while SuperX maintained high single-digit to double-digit growth [7]. Channel and Regional Insights - Management observed a mild recovery in catering channels, particularly in hot pot, BBQ, and trendy restaurants, while nightlife channels remained muted [6][10]. - Performance in East and South China was noted as on track, with slightly better on-trade volume growth in these regions [10]. Instant Delivery and Online Channels - CRB is experiencing strong growth in instant delivery platforms, with growth rates ranging from double-digit to triple-digit percentages from a small base [10]. - Online channels, including instant delivery, currently account for low single-digit to mid-single-digit percentages of total volume, with management indicating that operating profit margins for these businesses are not significantly lower than traditional channels [10].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Keysight Technologies (KEYS) based on improved order trends and revenue guidance [6][7]. Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reported in-line quarterly results with revenue of $2.29 billion, slightly above consensus expectations of $2.28 billion, and guided for FQ4 revenue between $2.49 billion and $2.51 billion, indicating a growth of 19-20% for FY RPO [3][4]. - Baidu (BIDU) exceeded expectations with Q1 revenue of CNY 32.45 billion, driven by a 42% year-over-year growth in its AI Cloud business, leading to a 2.5% increase in stock price [5][6]. - Keysight Technologies (KEYS) reported a revenue of $1.31 billion, 2% above market expectations, and guided for FY25 revenue growth of approximately 6% year-over-year, reflecting an acceleration in order growth [6][7]. - Wolfspeed (WOLF) shares plummeted 60% following reports of the company preparing for bankruptcy, indicating significant distress in the semiconductor sector [8]. - Google (GOOGL) showcased innovations in AI during its I/O keynote, emphasizing its commitment to integrating AI capabilities across its product suite, which may enhance its competitive position in the search market [9][11]. Summary by Sections Market Insights - Futures are pulling back with NDX/SPX down 65 basis points as higher yields impact risk appetite, with US 10-year yields at 4.53% and 30-year yields at 5.02% [1][2]. - The report highlights a surge in short interest, indicating a shift in market sentiment and potential investment strategies [12][14]. Company Performance - PANW's stock fell 3.5% post-earnings despite meeting expectations, while BIDU's stock rose 2.5% on strong Q1 results [3][4][5]. - KEYS experienced a 5% increase in stock price due to positive order trends and revenue guidance [6][7]. - WOLF's stock saw a drastic decline of 60% amid bankruptcy preparations, reflecting severe challenges in the semiconductor industry [8]. Hedge Fund Trends - Hedge funds have maintained a positive return of +1% YTD, with a notable increase in short positions across ETFs and single stocks, indicating a strategic shift in investment approaches [12][32]. - The average large-cap mutual fund has outperformed benchmarks, with 50% exceeding their targets, reflecting strong relative performance despite macroeconomic uncertainties [19][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the MedTech sector, reiterating Buy ratings on several companies including Boston Scientific (BSX), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) [6][10]. Core Insights - The MedTech industry is experiencing strong operating fundamentals with organic sales growth averaging 6.7% in Q1 2025, an acceleration from 7.2% in Q4 2024 [3][22]. - Profitability has improved across the sector, although there are expectations of greater pressure on margins due to macroeconomic challenges and tariffs [3][25]. - The report highlights a widening gap in valuation and top-line growth among companies, with Boston Scientific's NTM P/E multiple expanding from 64% to 123% since December 2022 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report discusses various events and management meetings that have shaped the outlook for the MedTech sector, including investor trips and conferences [3]. - It notes that the policy environment appears favorable for MedTech, with potential tariff relief and tax reform benefits [6]. Company Performance - Organic sales growth varied across companies, with those in high-growth categories like Robotics and Diabetes showing strength, while others faced challenges due to exposure to China and macroeconomic headwinds [3][18]. - Six companies have raised their full-year 2025 guidance, indicating a more balanced outlook for the second half of the year [22]. Financial Metrics - The report indicates that the average gross margin for large-cap MedTech companies was 60.2% in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase [25]. - Operating margins expanded by 120 basis points year-over-year, supported by moderating inflation and favorable product mix [25][29]. Growth Projections - The report anticipates that organic growth will be driven by product cycles and innovation, with demographic factors and hospital financial conditions remaining healthy [18][40]. - Companies like Abbott and Boston Scientific are expected to sustain organic growth rates of at least 10% through 2027, despite some deceleration anticipated in the near term [9][10]. Tariff Implications - The report discusses the potential impacts of tariffs, particularly related to China, and suggests that tariff relief could provide upside to earnings forecasts [31][32]. - It highlights that the anticipated impacts from tariffs remain dynamic, with expectations of lower rates potentially benefiting companies like GE Healthcare [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for MongoDB (MDB) and Accenture (ACN) based on their growth potential and market positioning [9][12][13]. Core Insights - MongoDB has shown a re-acceleration in its Atlas business, with a 17% pre-market increase following a 25% raise in full-year operating income expectations, although still below previous quarter levels [5][8]. - Investor sentiment around MongoDB has declined in recent quarters, with ongoing debates about its ability to transition to a Generative AI stack [6][9]. - Accenture faces bearish sentiment ahead of its earnings report, with short interest rising significantly, but bulls point to a supportive backlog and favorable valuation metrics [12][13]. Summary by Sections MongoDB (MDB) - MDB's stock has seen a 17% increase in pre-market trading due to positive expectations around its Atlas business, marking the first re-acceleration in years [5]. - The company is experiencing mixed execution and a debate on its positioning in an AI-first world, with discussions focusing on its transition from Cloud/Mobile to Generative AI [6][9]. - The report highlights a significant uptick in customer net additions, marking the largest quarter-over-quarter gain in six years, indicating positive momentum [7][8]. Accenture (ACN) - Accenture is under scrutiny with increased short interest, reflecting concerns over macroeconomic factors and competition in the AI space [12]. - The report anticipates that if Accenture reports better-than-expected revenue results, it could stabilize its stock price [13]. - Key focus areas for Accenture include guidance for Q4 FY25, bookings growth, and the impact of government IT spending on its revenue [15].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [3]. Core Insights - The global real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.4% year-on-year in 2025, influenced by higher US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty [4][5]. - In the US, real GDP growth is projected to be 1.0% in 2025, with a 35% probability of entering a recession within the next 12 months [4]. - The Euro area is anticipated to see a real GDP growth of 0.9% year-on-year in 2025, affected by elevated trade policy uncertainty [4]. - China is expected to achieve a real GDP growth of 4.6% year-on-year in 2025, despite ongoing challenges in the property market [5]. Economic Forecasts - The LME aluminum price forecast for 2025 has been raised to $2,400 per metric ton, while the 2026 forecast has been lowered to $2,230 per metric ton [1]. - Core inflation in the US is expected to rise to 3.6% year-on-year by the end of 2025, driven by higher tariffs [4]. - The unemployment rate in the US is projected to increase to 4.5% by the end of 2025 [4]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to implement a series of rate cuts, reaching a policy rate of 1.75% by July 2025 [4]. Regional Insights - In the US, consumer spending and business investment are anticipated to be negatively impacted by elevated policy uncertainty and rising tariffs [4]. - The Euro area is expected to experience a cooling in services inflation, contributing to a decline in core inflation to 2.1% by the end of 2025 [4]. - In China, inflation is projected to remain very low, with CPI inflation expected to end the year at 0% and PPI inflation at -2.1% [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative impact on European equities due to Section 899, with an estimated decline of 1-2% in the first year and up to 5% over a four-year horizon [10] Core Insights - Section 899 introduces retaliatory tax measures against non-US individuals and entities from countries imposing "unfair foreign taxes" on US persons, which could discourage foreign investment in US assets [2][8] - The withholding tax for listed companies will start at 5% and increase by 5 percentage points annually to a maximum of 20%, affecting both active business income and passive income [3] - European equities, particularly those with significant US operations, are notably exposed, with the STOXX 600 deriving approximately 25% of its revenues from the US [10] - The report suggests that Section 899 may catalyze renewed interest in European equities as international investors may reduce their appetite for US assets [19] Summary by Sections Tax Mechanics - The withholding tax will apply to both active business income and passive income, starting at 5% and increasing annually [3] Affected Entities - Non-US individuals and entities in countries with UTPRs, DSTs, or DPTs will be affected, including foreign governments, sovereign wealth funds, and foreign corporations [4] Impact on European Equities - Earnings for the STOXX 600 could be revised down by 1-2% in the first year and by as much as 5% over four years, translating to a potential decline in European equities [10] - Companies with high US exposure have begun to reflect growing investor concerns, with a specific subset (GSXES899) particularly vulnerable to Section 899 [13] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on quality domestic exposures in Europe, highlighting sectors such as Banks, Retail, and Telecoms for overweight positions [14]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modest net change in the fiscal balance due to the reconciliation package, with an estimated $275 billion addition to the deficit next year, suggesting a cautious investment outlook [3][4]. Core Insights - The reconciliation bill, titled the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," is expected to create a fiscal expansion of roughly $4 trillion relative to current law, but the net impact on corporate earnings is estimated to be about 5% for S&P 500 in 2026, diminishing in subsequent years [3][4]. - The corporate provisions in the bill will primarily shift the timing of tax payments rather than permanently lower tax rates, impacting cash flows more than GAAP net income [4][9]. - The potential changes to business expensing will significantly affect capex-intensive companies and those with high interest expenses, particularly in the small-cap sector [9][32]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Impact - The reconciliation package is expected to have a modest direct impact on S&P 500 earnings and cash flows, with a collective effect of approximately 5% on earnings in 2026 [4][5]. - The bill's provisions, including capex and R&D expensing, interest deductibility, and foreign income treatment, will contribute to GDP growth, further lifting S&P 500 earnings by about 1% [4][31]. Market Reactions - Few sectors have shown a strong correlation with fiscal policy expectations, although renewable energy stocks have reacted to legislative developments [2][20]. - The report highlights that stocks with elevated interest expenses and low effective tax rates may face scrutiny as Congress negotiates the legislative package [30][43]. Sector-Specific Insights - The legislation's impact on interest deductibility will have a larger effect on small-cap stocks compared to large-cap stocks, with 34% of Russell 2000 companies having interest expenses exceeding 30% of EBIT [9][14]. - Consumer-facing stocks may benefit from the fiscal package, with expected boosts to consumer spending adding about 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in 2026 [31][32]. Valuation Considerations - The reconciliation bill could influence equity valuations if it leads to upward pressure on interest rates, with historical data indicating stocks typically react poorly to rapid increases in yields [34][42]. - A potential increase in the 10-year Treasury yield toward 5% could catalyze additional equity volatility, impacting investor sentiment [34][38].