Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Ocumension with a 12-month price target of HK$6.93, indicating a potential downside of 36.9% from the current price of HK$10.98 [6][7]. Core Insights - Management expressed confidence in OT-101 (low dose atropine) with ongoing business development negotiations and expects Phase 3 data readout in May 2026, which is crucial for regulatory filings in the US and China [3][5]. - The supply of Yutiq is expected to resume in China starting from July, with FY25 sales guidance reiterated to double to Rmb800 million, approximately 50% of which is anticipated from the Alcon franchise [5][6]. Summary by Sections Business Development Focus - The primary focus is on OT-101, with management anticipating positive Phase 3 data for children and adolescents with myopia, and plans for regulatory filings in both the US and China post-data readout [3][5]. - The ongoing Phase 3 multi-regional clinical trial (MRCT) includes over 700 participants globally, with a design that meets FDA and CDE requirements [3]. - Management is also monitoring SYD-101 for US visibility, especially following its recent EU approval, with the upcoming FDA PDUFA date seen as a significant event [3][5]. - Market penetration remains a key uncertainty, with accessible pricing between US$60-90/month and potential reimbursement, but concerns exist regarding physician willingness to prescribe and competition from compound pharmacies [3][5]. Financial Guidance - Management expects Yutiq supply constraints to ease, projecting flat or slight increases in sales for the full year, estimated at Rmb50-60 million [5]. - The FY25 sales guidance of Rmb800 million reflects a doubling of sales, with a significant contribution from the Alcon franchise [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shandong Weigao Group is "Buy" with a target price of HK$7.30, indicating an upside potential of 18.5% from the current price of HK$6.16 [8]. Core Insights - The company maintains its full-year revenue growth guidance of 10-15% year-on-year, with expectations of a stronger second half due to a favorable revenue base and new product contributions [2][6]. - New product ramp-up is on track, particularly in perioperative care and the pharmaceutical packaging segment, with specific sales targets set for these products [2][7]. - Operating margins for low-value consumables are expected to stabilize post-Volume-Based Procurement (VBP), supported by cost controls and market expansion efforts [7]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - Full-year revenue growth guidance remains at 10-15% y/y, with a slower first half anticipated but a stronger second half expected due to a favorable base and new product contributions [2][6]. - The revenue split for 1H25 and 2H25 is projected at Rmb6.64 billion and Rmb6.45 billion respectively [6]. New Products and Market Strategy - The ramp-up of new products is progressing as planned, particularly in perioperative care, with sales targets of Rmb0.8-1 billion for FY25 [6][7]. - In the pharmaceutical packaging segment, pre-filled syringes are expected to grow at a teens rate, driven by new biologics launches [7]. Profitability and Margins - Operating profit is expected to grow in line with revenue, with a one-off gain of Rmb60-70 million anticipated from the listing of Weigao's blood purification business [6]. - Operating margins for low-value consumables are projected to stabilize at 15-20% post-VBP, aided by cost controls and deeper market penetration [7]. International Expansion and M&A - The company is actively expanding into overseas markets, with a focus on developing countries and a new plant under construction in Southeast Asia [7]. - Management is evaluating M&A opportunities, particularly in capacity expansion for existing products and new product categories [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies discussed Core Insights - Chair Powell emphasized that the FOMC is well positioned to wait for more clarity on the economy before making policy adjustments, indicating a cautious approach to potential rate cuts [1][2] - Powell mentioned that lower-than-expected inflation or a weaker labor market could lead to earlier rate cuts, while a strong labor market with higher inflation would delay such actions [2] - The FOMC is finalizing changes to its consensus statement and expects to announce these changes in late summer, reflecting ongoing discussions about the framework review [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Economic Outlook - Powell stated that the FOMC is waiting to learn more about the economy's likely course before considering policy adjustments, highlighting uncertainty regarding tariff inflation and its impact on consumer prices [2] Inflation and Labor Market - The potential for lower-than-expected inflation or a weaker labor market could prompt the FOMC to cut rates sooner, while a strong labor market and rising inflation would result in a later decision to cut rates [2] FOMC Framework Review - Powell indicated that the FOMC has completed necessary meetings to finalize changes to its consensus statement and is currently discussing the specific language for the new framework, with announcements expected in late summer [2]

Investment Rating - The report reinstates a Buy rating on CATL-A with a target price of Rmb323, implying a 31.3% upside, and initiates a Buy rating on CATL-H with a target price of HK$343, implying a 13.2% upside [1][9][27]. Core Insights - The report forecasts a 25% EPS CAGR for CATL from 2024 to 2030, driven by robust volume growth, product mix improvement, and unit profit expansion [2][22][27]. - CATL is expected to maintain a global market share of approximately 40% through 2025E-2030E, supported by supply consolidation in the Chinese market and strong positioning in Europe and the Rest of World [2][22]. - The blended unit gross profit (GP) is projected to increase from Rmb152/kWh in 2025E to Rmb169/kWh in 2030E, with a key driver being the recovery of the domestic battery market and stronger growth in the higher-margin overseas EV battery market [1][22][35]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from Rmb362 billion in 2024 to Rmb588 billion in 2027, with EBITDA increasing from Rmb77.5 billion to Rmb143 billion over the same period [4][14]. - EPS is expected to rise from Rmb11.58 in 2024 to Rmb22.49 in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4][14]. Market Positioning - CATL's ability to maintain a global market share of ~40% is underpinned by supply consolidation in the domestic market and strong positioning in Europe and RoW, effectively offsetting headwinds in the US market [2][22]. - The report highlights that CATL's market share resilience is crucial for sustaining its growth and profitability [2][22]. Unit GP Analysis - The report presents a detailed analysis of unit GP decomposition by geography and product, indicating a recovery in domestic battery unit GP from Rmb120/kWh to Rmb130/kWh and overseas EV battery unit GP stabilizing at Rmb275/kWh [35][39]. - The domestic ESS unit GP is expected to recover from Rmb90/kWh to Rmb125/kWh by 2030E, reflecting a cyclical recovery [39][43]. Valuation - The target price for CATL-A is derived from a combination of near- and long-term valuations, applying a three-month average P/E of 15.6x for 2025-26E and a long-term P/E of 15x for 2030E [17][27]. - The report indicates that CATL is trading at a significant discount compared to peers, enhancing its valuation appeal [1][17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Hansoh Pharma with a 12-month price target of HK$22.71, indicating a downside potential of 20.6% from the current price of HK$28.60 [8][9]. Core Insights - Management emphasizes encouraging progress in ex-China development for out-licensed assets, including B7H3 ADC, B7H4 ADC, and oral GLP-1, with a reiterated product sales guidance of double-digit growth in 2025 [1][2]. - The key product Ameile is projected to achieve peak sales of Rmb8 billion, with additional upside potential from combination therapies [1][3]. - The company anticipates deal-making opportunities from early-stage ADCs and next-generation disease modifiers for immunology diseases [1][7]. Summary by Sections Ex-China Development Progress - HS-20093 (B7H3 ADC) has received two breakthrough designations from the FDA for SCLC and osteosarcoma, with GSK planning pivotal studies by Q4 2025 [2]. - HS-20089 (B7H4 ADC) is set to commence pivotal trials in 2026 for gynecological cancers [2]. - HS-10535 (oral GLP-1) is expected to enter phase 1 trials in 2025, targeting multiple cardiovascular and metabolic diseases [2]. - HS-20094 (GLP-1/GIP) will focus on weight reduction strategies in combination with Regeneron's internal pipeline assets [2]. Sales Growth and Commercialization - Management guides for double-digit sales growth in 2025, driven by innovative drugs, particularly Ameile, which has a revised sales target of Rmb6 billion for 2025 [3][6]. - The potential for collaboration income is highlighted as a sustainable revenue driver, supported by a growing R&D pipeline with 8-10 new INDs each year [6]. Licensing and Deal-Making Opportunities - Potential licensing-out opportunities include early-stage pre-clinical assets and several ADCs that have entered clinical stages [7]. - Specific assets with deal-making potential include HS-20122 (EGFR/cMET ADC), HS-10370 (KRAS G12D), and others targeting immunology diseases [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Genscript Biotech Corp. is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of HK$27.34, indicating an upside potential of 84.5% from the current price of HK$14.82 [8]. Core Insights - Management highlighted that ProBio revenues are expected to bottom out, driven by the LaNova deal, with a projected revenue of US$95 million in FY24, reflecting a 13% year-over-year decline [5]. - The protein segment is anticipated to become the second growth engine for the life science group, with a significant increase in revenue contribution from 23% in 2023 to nearly 30% [6]. - The company expects a steadily improving bottom line, with share buybacks and dividends under consideration as profitability improves starting from 2025 [6]. Summary by Sections ProBio Performance - ProBio revenues are projected to recover, with management confident that the revenue is bottoming out due to factors such as improved funding for biotech clients and stabilizing pricing in China [5]. - The LaNova/Merck deal is expected to contribute significantly, with US$235 million booked in the first half and an additional US$75 million milestone expected in 2H25 [5]. Life Science Group Growth - The life science group has shown steady growth of 10-20% over the years, with gene synthesis having a total addressable market (TAM) of US$1-2 billion, while customized protein synthesis is expected to have a TAM 10 times larger [6]. - The company is reallocating resources to enhance growth in the protein synthesis sector, which is expected to be a major growth driver in the coming years [6]. Financial Outlook - Excluding the impact from Legend deconsolidation, the adjusted net profit for the ex-Legend businesses is expected to reach US$60 million in FY24, with consistent profitability anticipated starting in 2025 [6]. - Management expects the EBITDA break-even point for ProBio to be achieved when revenues reach US$150-200 million, with Bestzyme remaining at break-even until 2027 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the solar industry, expecting significant capacity cuts and a decline in profitability across the value chain, particularly in the upstream segments [3][5]. Core Insights - The report indicates a potential rush in installations in May 2025, driven by a policy cutoff, but anticipates a deeper demand pullback in the second half of 2025, with global module demand expected to decline by 40% year-over-year [4][5]. - The pricing dynamics across the solar value chain show a decline in spot prices for most segments, with glass experiencing the most significant drop of 10% month-to-date [19][20]. - The upstream profitability is expected to deteriorate further, while downstream segments are projected to remain more resilient [7][19]. Summary by Sections Sector Overview - Anticipated capacity cuts of 17% across the main value chain in 2025-2026 due to cash burn and market access issues [3]. - A forecasted decline in solar capital expenditure by 55% year-over-year in 2025, with average capacity utilization rates dropping to 59% from 2025 to 2030 [5]. Pricing Trends - As of June 19, 2025, spot prices for poly, wafer, cell, module, glass, and film have declined by an average of 6%, 5%, 3%, 0%, 10%, and 3% respectively month-to-date [19]. - The report highlights that module pricing has remained stable, contrasting with the declines seen in other segments, particularly glass [19][20]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global module demand surged by 74% month-over-month and 193% year-over-year in May 2025, primarily due to a rush in installations in China [4]. - The report projects that inventory days will rebound to an average of 33 days in June from 27 days in May, indicating increased inventory pressure across the value chain [13][16]. Profitability Outlook - Cash gross profit margins (GPM) for upstream segments are expected to decline, while downstream players are likely to maintain more stable margins [7][10]. - The report suggests that despite the anticipated price declines, profitability may remain resilient due to greater upstream price cuts [20].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but highlights the potential economic impacts of geopolitical risks and energy price fluctuations [2][33]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risks have increased due to military actions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, which could affect the global economy through higher energy prices, non-energy trade, and financial conditions [2][4]. - The primary economic risk identified is a rise in energy prices, with a baseline forecast suggesting Brent oil prices could ease to around $60 per barrel by year-end, assuming no supply disruptions [4][5]. - A reduction in Iranian oil supply could lower global GDP by 0.1-0.2 percentage points and increase headline inflation by 0.2-0.4 percentage points over the next year, depending on OPEC's response [4][13]. - A temporary disruption of energy supply through the Strait of Hormuz could lower global growth by over 0.3 percentage points and raise headline inflation by 0.7 percentage points [4][13]. - Spillover effects from the Iran-Israel conflict on non-energy trade are expected to be limited, as most countries have minimal trade exposure to the region [21][25]. - Historical data indicates that financial conditions have not systematically tightened or eased during previous Middle East conflicts, suggesting limited impact on growth from financial conditions in the current situation [25][29]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact Assessment - The report assesses the economic impacts of the Middle East conflict through three main channels: energy prices, non-energy trade, and financial conditions [2][4]. - Higher oil prices are expected to weigh on real incomes and spending, with oil exporters potentially benefiting [6][7]. Energy Price Scenarios - The report outlines several scenarios regarding oil supply disruptions, including: - Baseline scenario: Brent oil prices decline to around $60 per barrel [10]. - Iranian supply reduction with partial OPEC offset: Prices could spike to just above $90 per barrel [11]. - Significant disruption through the Strait of Hormuz: Prices could peak around $110 per barrel [16][17]. - Each 10% increase in oil prices is estimated to lower global growth by 0.1 percentage points and raise global headline inflation by 0.2 percentage points [7][12]. Financial Conditions - The report indicates that financial conditions have shown mixed responses to geopolitical risks, with only a modest tightening observed since the onset of the conflict [25][30]. - Historical analysis suggests that geopolitical risks from the Middle East have had minimal effects on financial conditions overall [29][30]. Monitoring and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for close monitoring of energy price risks as the situation evolves, despite a limited impact on the baseline economic outlook [33].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within the advertising sector Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant impact of AI on industry profit pools, particularly in the advertising sector, suggesting a shift in focus from individual tasks to existing profit pools that AI is likely to disrupt [12] - It highlights that AI is expected to lower costs and improve efficiencies in advertising, potentially leading to substantial shifts in how advertising budgets are allocated [19][41] - The report identifies several multi-billion dollar profit pools that AI could disrupt, including the shift of ad spend from traditional to digital channels, automating ad creative generation, consolidating ad tech intermediaries, and impacting the ad agency ecosystem [19][41][67] Summary by Sections AI Impact on Advertising - The report discusses how AI is being implemented across various areas in digital advertising, including content creation, optimization engines, and campaign execution, with major players like Google and Meta leading the way [16][21] - It notes that AI tools are democratizing advertising, allowing smaller advertisers to adopt sophisticated strategies and driving better targeting and returns [21][34] Profit Pools Disruption - The report outlines four key profit pools that AI has the potential to disrupt: 1. Accelerating the shift of ad spend from traditional to digital channels (~$170 billion opportunity) 2. Automating the ad creative generation process (~$114 billion) 3. Consolidation of ad tech intermediaries (~$25 billion) 4. Potential impact on the ad agency ecosystem (~$161 billion) [19][41][67] Current State of AI in Advertising - The report indicates that digital advertising is the subsector furthest along in AI product development and end-user adoption, with significant advancements in AI tools like Google's Performance Max and Meta's Advantage+ [16][23] - It highlights the increasing adoption rates of these AI tools among US advertisers, suggesting a long runway for growth in ad spend on these platforms [27][30] Future Opportunities - The report identifies new growth opportunities enabled by AI, such as improving return on ad spend, democratizing advertising, and introducing new ad formats [67] - It emphasizes that AI's ability to automate tasks and analyze data will reshape workflows and redistribute profit pools significantly within the advertising industry [37][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on China's real GDP growth due to demographic, debt, and de-risking challenges, while acknowledging potential upside risks from faster AI adoption [7][8]. Core Insights - China achieved a growth target of "around 5%" in 2024, primarily driven by exports and related manufacturing investments [5]. - The 2025 growth forecast is set at 4.6%, slightly above consensus, with inflation forecasts below consensus (CPI at 0.0% and PPI at -2.4%) [8][10]. - The report anticipates a widening fiscal deficit by 2.4 percentage points of GDP in 2025 compared to 2024, with total social financing stock growth expected to rise to 9.5% [8][10]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Forecasts - The report outlines that China's GDP growth is projected at 4.6% for 2025, with domestic demand contributing 4.5% and consumption at 4.9% [10]. - Exports of goods are expected to decline by 2.4% in nominal USD terms, while imports are projected to decrease by 4.2% [10]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - CPI is forecasted to be 0.0% and PPI at -2.4% for 2025, indicating low inflationary pressures [8][10]. - The report suggests further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and policy rates in Q4 2025 [8]. Fiscal Policy and Government Debt - The augmented fiscal deficit is expected to reach 13.0% of GDP in 2025, reflecting increased government spending [10][60]. - China's total government debt is projected to be RMB166 trillion, which is 131% of GDP [69]. Trade and External Factors - Elevated US tariffs on Chinese goods are anticipated to negatively impact GDP growth, although exports to other countries may provide some offset [8]. - The report notes that the US effective tariff rate on China has dropped, which may reduce the drag on GDP growth [15]. Policy Measures - Ongoing and planned policy easing measures are expected to support technology and high-quality growth, with specific programs aimed at boosting consumption and investment [63].