21 May 2025 | 10:11PM IST Goldman Sachs Asia in Focus India: Towards a better growth-inflation balance Santanu Sengupta +91(22)6616-9042 | santanu.sengupta@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Arjun Varma +91(22)6616-9043 | arjun.varma@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclo ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for VeriSilicon, with a 12-month target price of Rmb119, indicating an upside potential of 35.9% from the current price of Rmb87.59 [11][9]. Core Insights - VeriSilicon is experiencing strong order momentum, with orders on hand reaching Rmb2.46 billion as of the end of Q1 2025, up from Rmb2.41 billion at the end of 2024. Approximately 80% of these orders are expected to be delivered within one year, supporting growth from Q2 2025 onwards [2][8]. - The company is expanding its capabilities in Chiplet and GPU/AI IP, supported by private placement funding approved by the CSRC in April 2025. This funding will primarily focus on developing high-performance, low-power Chiplet platforms for AI and autonomous driving applications [3][8]. - Revenue from turnkey solutions, which include chipset design and mass production services, has seen significant growth, increasing by 41% year-over-year [4][7]. - The investment thesis highlights VeriSilicon's leading position in the semiconductor IP market in China, with a 2% share in the global IP market. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the rising demand for computing power, particularly in AI and autonomous driving applications [8][9]. Summary by Sections Orders and Revenue - Orders on hand reached Rmb2.46 billion at the end of Q1 2025, supporting anticipated growth. The product mix is shifting towards more advanced projects (14nm and above), which carry higher value [2][8]. Funding and Expansion - The company plans to utilize private placement funding for R&D in Chiplet and GPU IP/AI IP, focusing on local client needs for high-performance chipsets [3][8]. Turnkey Solutions - The revenue growth from turnkey solutions has increased significantly, indicating strong demand in consumer electronics and a diversified client base across various sectors [4][7]. Market Position and Valuation - VeriSilicon is recognized as a leading semiconductor IP and design service provider in China, with a target P/E multiple of 31x for 2029E, suggesting that the shares are currently undervalued [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating on equities for both 3-month and 12-month asset allocations [2]. Core Insights - The US fiscal concerns are expected to increase the deficit by approximately $275 billion, or 0.8% of GDP, next year, primarily due to more generous individual tax cuts [1]. - Revenue from tariff increases is projected to offset the net increase in the deficit, with expectations of around $400 billion, or 1.25% of GDP, in revenue next year [1]. - Federal debt as a share of GDP is anticipated to rise to about 120% by 2035 from roughly 100% today, indicating a need for close monitoring of the US fiscal outlook [1]. - The report highlights a potential sharp decline in the US trade deficit with China, driven by a decrease in imports following frontloading ahead of tariffs [8]. - Global population aging is viewed as less concerning than previously thought, with healthier aging populations expected to work longer and mitigate economic drawbacks [9]. Summary by Sections US Fiscal Concerns - The House Republican reconciliation package is expected to increase the US deficit by around $275 billion next year [1]. - Tariff revenue is projected to be around $400 billion, which will likely offset the deficit increase [1]. - Federal debt is expected to reach approximately 120% of GDP by 2035 [1]. Trade Dynamics - The report anticipates a decline in the US trade deficit with China, with real goods imports increasing by 3% in April but declining by 4% in May [8]. - The annualized goods trade deficit was around $1.6 trillion in April, decreasing to $1.5 trillion in May [8]. Population Aging - Concerns about global population aging are considered overblown, as healthier aging populations are expected to work longer [9]. - The fertility rate required for long-term population stability is believed to be lower than the current global rate of 2.1, supporting continued population growth [9]. Hedge Fund and Mutual Fund Trends - The average US long/short equity hedge fund has maintained a return of 1% year-to-date, despite a challenging environment [11]. - Mutual funds have shown strong performance, with 50% of large-cap funds outperforming their benchmarks [11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report raises end-2025 US 2y/10y yield forecasts to 3.9%/4.5% from 3.3%/4.0% due to a larger-than-expected decline in US-China tariffs [3]. - It anticipates global real GDP growth to slow to 2.3% year-on-year in 2025, influenced by higher US tariffs [3]. - The report expects US real GDP growth to decelerate to 1.0% in 2025, with a 35% probability of entering a recession within the next 12 months [3]. - In China, real GDP growth is projected at 4.6% year-on-year in 2025, despite ongoing challenges from higher US tariffs and domestic issues [3][13]. - The Euro area is expected to see real GDP growth of 0.9% year-on-year in 2025, amid elevated trade policy uncertainty [3]. Economic Forecasts - Global GDP growth is forecasted at 2.3% for 2025, with US GDP growth at 1.0% and China at 4.6% [15]. - Core inflation in the US is expected to rise to 3.6% year-on-year by the end of 2025, driven by higher tariffs [3]. - The unemployment rate in the US is projected to increase to 4.5% by the end of 2025 [3]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue rate cuts until the policy rate reaches 1.75% in July 2025 [3]. Sector-Specific Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring US policy and geopolitical developments, particularly regarding US-China relations and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East [13]. - It notes that uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy poses significant risks to both the US and global economies [13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The market has experienced a significant rebound, with the S&P index rising approximately 20% from April lows, and all equity markets performing well [2][3] - Oil and gas prices have decreased materially, providing a potential tailwind for the economy, assuming it does not signal a recession [2][3] - There has been a notable increase in M&A activity, with numerous deals ranging from $1 billion to $10 billion announced in the past six weeks despite tariff concerns [2][3] - Retail investors have shown significant engagement, with net buying in the U.S. reaching an annualized rate of approximately $200 billion to $300 billion [17] - The report highlights a shift in focus towards cyclical stocks over defensive ones, with a notable demand for sectors like technology, healthcare, energy, and industrials [12][24] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of tariffs, noting a de-escalation in U.S.-China tariff increases, which are now at 30% and 15% respectively, significantly lower than previous expectations [13][14] - Recession probabilities have decreased to around 35%, and GDP growth estimates for the U.S. and China have been revised upwards [13][14] - The market is currently driven by hard data such as high employment and stable GDP, rather than uncertainties surrounding tariffs [9][10] Retail Investor Influence - Retail investors have increasingly influenced market dynamics, particularly through the "buy the dip" strategy, which has been prominent during market downturns [17] - The report notes the growing relevance of retail investors, who now account for approximately 30% of daily trading volumes and 53% of equity ownership in the U.S. [17] M&A Activity - The report indicates a steady pace of mid-cap M&A activity, driven by the need for growth in a low GDP growth environment [21][24] - There is an emphasis on the challenges faced by small and mid-cap companies in a concentrated market, highlighting the importance of scale [21][24] IPO Market - The report mentions a resurgence in IPO activity, with strong investor demand and oversubscriptions for recent listings such as eToro and Aspen [19][20] - There is a backlog of companies waiting for favorable market conditions to go public, indicating a potential increase in future IPOs [19][20] Economic Indicators - The report notes a significant gap between hard data (employment and GDP) and soft data (ISM, PMI, consumer confidence), which is at one of the widest levels since the 1970s [9][10] - Concerns remain regarding inflation and the potential impact of tariff delays on the economy [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Anta Sports Products with a 12-month price target of HK$117, indicating an upside potential of 29.8% from the current price of HK$90.15 [17][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for Anta, driven by strong sales momentum in the outdoor segment and a robust multi-brand strategy that is expected to enhance market share and profit growth [3][8]. - Amer Sports reported a significant revenue growth of 23% year-over-year, outperforming consensus estimates, with a notable 43% growth in Greater China, which is seen as a positive indicator for Anta's performance [2][8]. - The report suggests that the strong results from Amer Sports could alleviate investor concerns regarding tariff impacts on Anta's profit and loss [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Amer Sports achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $299 million in 1Q25, exceeding consensus estimates of $228 million, with an adjusted gross margin expansion of approximately 330 basis points year-over-year to 58.0% [2]. - Anta is expected to benefit from Amer's contribution, with an estimated RMB 983 million associate income projected for 2025, accounting for about 7% of Anta's net income in China [7]. Market Trends - The report notes that the premium outdoor segment in China remains healthy, which is favorable for Anta's outdoor brands such as Descente and Kolon [8]. - Smaller sportswear brands are outpacing larger brands in sales growth, indicating a shift in consumer preferences that could benefit Anta [12]. Strategic Initiatives - Amer Sports plans to optimize its retail footprint in China, focusing on store productivity rather than aggressive expansion, which is expected to lead to revenue growth in the coming years [11]. - The management of Amer Sports has reiterated its commitment to expanding its compact shop format in China, which has shown higher sales per square foot compared to industry averages [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Alphabet Inc. with a 12-month price target of $220 [8][24][27]. Core Insights - Alphabet is accelerating its AI innovation, particularly through the integration of Gemini AI capabilities across its product suite, which includes Search, YouTube, Gmail, Maps, Workspace, Google Cloud, and Android/Pixel [1][2]. - The company is well-positioned to adapt to the evolving landscape of AI-powered search, with innovations such as AI Overviews and AI Mode, which are expected to enhance user engagement and monetization [2][14]. - Alphabet's long-term strategic positioning is bolstered by its extensive user base, personalization capabilities, and infrastructure, which are seen as competitive advantages as the industry transitions to AI monetization [14]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from $295.1 billion in 2024 to $406.6 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.8% [3][11]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from $127.7 billion in 2024 to $187.9 billion in 2027, indicating strong operational performance [3][11]. - EPS is forecasted to rise from $8.04 in 2024 to $10.59 in 2027, demonstrating robust earnings growth [3][11]. Key Developments - Notable announcements from the Google I/O keynote include the launch of Gemini 2.5, enhancements to AI Overviews in Search, and the introduction of new features in Workspace and Google Cloud [15][18][25]. - The AI Mode in Search is rolling out to users in the U.S., which includes features like Personal Context Mode and Deep Search, aimed at improving user experience and engagement [18][19]. - The introduction of new AI-driven tools such as Canvas for co-creation and Flow for film creation highlights Alphabet's commitment to expanding its AI capabilities across various applications [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pony AI Inc. with a 12-month target price of US$26.0, reflecting an upside potential of 45.4% from the current price of US$17.88 [18][19]. Core Insights - Pony AI reported 1Q25 revenues of US$14 million, representing a 12% year-over-year increase but a 61% decrease quarter-over-quarter. The operating loss narrowed to US$56 million from US$173 million in 4Q24, indicating improved operational efficiency [1][12]. - The company is ramping up its robotaxi operations, with fare-charging revenues increasing by 800% year-over-year. The Gen7 robotaxi model is entering mass production, with plans to deploy a total of 1,000 robotaxis by year-end [1][12]. - Partnerships with major companies like Tencent and Uber are expected to enhance user base and service integration, further supporting revenue growth [12][18]. Financial Performance - In 1Q25, gross profit was US$2 million, with a gross margin of 16.6%, down from previous quarters due to increased sales of domain controllers [12]. - The company’s net income loss narrowed to US$43 million from US$181 million in 4Q24, indicating a trend towards improved financial health [12]. - The report projects revenue growth for 2025-2026, with a slight increase in gross margin estimates to 16.2% and 16.9% respectively, supported by larger operational scale [9][11]. Revenue Breakdown - Robotaxi revenues in 1Q25 were US$1.7 million, up 200% year-over-year, while robotruck revenues were US$7.8 million, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase [7]. - Licensing and applications revenues remained stable at US$4.5 million, with growth driven by new clients in the autonomous domain [7]. Valuation and Forecast - The valuation is based on a discounted EV/EBITDA method, applying a target multiple of 13.5x for 2031E EBITDA, reflecting a higher forward year EBITDA growth of 21% in 2032E [11][15]. - The report revises revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 upwards by 0% to 1%, indicating faster fleet deployment than previously expected [9][10]. Market Position - Pony AI is positioned as a leader in Level 4 autonomous mobility, operating fully driverless robotaxis in major Chinese cities and expanding its global footprint with road test qualifications in Luxembourg and South Korea [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards US equities, indicating a narrower path for further gains while highlighting opportunities in emerging markets (EM) assets and carry strategies [2][11][30]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that while trade tensions have eased, the US still faces significant growth-inflation challenges, leading to a weaker dollar and a steeper UST curve [2][19][26]. - It notes that the expected tariff shifts have reduced some tail risks, allowing equity investors to overlook certain weaknesses in economic data [7][11]. - The outlook for growth is described as "soggy," which may favor carry strategies over cyclical risks, particularly in the context of lower volatility and a more stable inflation environment [11][39]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to experience sluggish but non-recessionary growth, with inflation remaining sticky [11][19]. - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may maintain its current stance unless significant weakness in the job market is observed [22][39]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in market sentiment towards a more balanced return outlook globally, with a focus on diversified risky asset portfolios [26][30]. - Emerging market equities are noted for their potential upside, given their current undervaluation compared to US equities [30][32]. Risks and Opportunities - The report identifies a potential rise in unemployment as a key risk that could reignite recession fears, impacting risky assets negatively [16][39]. - It suggests that the path for a weaker dollar remains wide, driven by easing trade tensions and a favorable outlook for EM currencies [26][28]. Investment Strategies - The report recommends combining diversified equity positions with hedges, particularly in anticipation of key economic data releases [2][11]. - It emphasizes the importance of diversification in both equity and bond allocations to mitigate risks associated with potential economic downturns [39].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Foxconn Industrial Internet is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of Rmb23.80, indicating an upside potential of 24.9% from the current price of Rmb19.06 [9]. Core Insights - The management of Foxconn Industrial Internet remains optimistic about growth in 2025, driven by generative AI, which is expected to significantly boost the company's AI servers and high-speed networking equipment [1][3]. - The company has demonstrated strong growth in cloud computing revenues, which increased by over 50% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with revenues from cloud service providers (CSPs) growing by over 60% year-on-year [3]. - The company is well-positioned to navigate geopolitical tensions due to its global production capabilities and strong management across various operational aspects [3]. Summary by Sections AI Servers Outlook - Management is positive about the AI servers and networking business, expecting continued growth throughout the year. The company has competitive strengths in R&D, automated production, and a comprehensive product offering [3]. - The cloud computing segment's revenue growth is attributed to both AI servers and general servers, with brand customers also showing a growth of over 30% year-on-year [3]. Global Production Sites - The company emphasizes its global production capabilities, which allow it to meet client needs amid geopolitical uncertainties. It has established production sites in the US, including Wisconsin, California, and Texas, capable of producing various AI server models [3]. - The focus on high-value products and automated production in the US enhances yield rates and production efficiency [3]. Switch Business Growth - Management is optimistic about the growth of the switch business, particularly high-speed switches, with revenue growth for 400G and 800G switches projected to be in triple digits for 2024 [4][7]. - The company's 800G switch is already in shipment, contributing to rising revenue, and it serves leading brand customers such as Cisco, Arista, and NVIDIA [4][7].