Investment Rating - The report maintains a view that a 25% copper import tariff is the most likely outcome of the S232 investigation, with a market-implied probability of 47% by the end of 2025, presenting a compelling opportunity for the 'Copper Tariff Trade' of long Dec-25 COMEX-LME copper arbitrage [4][6][7]. Core Insights - The Dec-25 COMEX-LME US-UK copper spread decreased from $1,708/t to $1,113/t between April 22 and May 20, indicating a reduced market-implied probability of a 25% US copper import tariff [4][6]. - The decline in the spread is attributed to the US making concessions on previously announced tariffs, which increases the perceived risk of concessions on potential copper tariffs [7][8]. - Rising US inventories have not materially impacted the COMEX-LME spread, as the decline is primarily due to greater uncertainty regarding future tariffs [11]. Summary by Sections Copper Tariff Investigation - There have been no official announcements from the Trump Administration regarding the copper S232 investigation since late February, leading to a lower probability of a US copper import tariff [7]. - If the US decides against imposing a copper import tariff, it is expected that the COMEX price would drop below the LME price due to high US inventories [8]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that US copper scrap exports have decreased year-to-date but have not ceased, and a blanket export ban is not anticipated [13][16]. - The UK securing concessions on steel and aluminum S232 tariffs is seen as a potential indicator that all tariffs, including copper, may be subject to negotiation [12]. Inventory and Pricing - The report highlights that the current high level of US copper inventories, the highest since 2012, is influencing market dynamics, particularly in relation to the COMEX-LME spread [8][11]. - The report emphasizes that tighter LME and wider COMEX timespreads account for the changes in the COMEX-LME spread, indicating that external factors are more impactful than US inventory levels [11].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong relative performance of large-cap mutual funds, with 50% outperforming their benchmarks year-to-date, significantly above the historical average of 37% [2][12]. Core Insights - Mutual funds have shown strong performance despite a volatile macro backdrop, with inflows to large-cap mutual funds and ETFs slowing since Election Day [2][20]. - The average large-cap mutual fund's active share has declined to a 10-year low, indicating lower alpha potential compared to historical levels [3][25]. - The average large-cap mutual fund has increased exposure to Consumer Discretionary by 75 basis points, marking the largest tilt in the last decade, while reducing exposure to Financials by 45 basis points [3][49]. Performance and Flows - 50% of large-cap mutual funds have outperformed their benchmarks year-to-date, compared to 29% in 2024 and a long-term average of 37% [12]. - Cash allocations in mutual funds have increased from 1.3% at year-end 2024 to 1.5% in March 2025, reflecting heightened uncertainty [20][21]. Themes in Focus - Active share among large-cap mutual funds is near 10-year lows, suggesting reduced deviation from benchmarks and lower alpha potential [3][25]. - Mutual funds have reduced exposure to stocks most affected by China tariffs, shifting from a 1 basis point overweight to an 11 basis point underweight [3][33]. - Large-cap mutual funds were 723 basis points underweight the "Magnificent 7," contributing to their strong relative performance year-to-date [3][39]. Sector Positioning - The average large-cap mutual fund is most overweight in Financials (+177 basis points) and most underweight in Information Technology (-466 basis points) [49]. - The tilt towards Consumer Discretionary has increased significantly, primarily driven by increased positions in Tesla [3][49]. Stock Positioning - The largest mutual fund overweights have underperformed the equal-weight S&P 500 year-to-date, with a 2% return compared to 3% for the index [4]. - Mutual funds have cut ownership in each of the "Magnificent 7" stocks during the first quarter of 2025, indicating a strategic shift in positioning [3][43].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Bilibili Inc. (BILI) with a 12-month DCF-based target price of US$23.70 and HK$185.00, indicating an upside potential of 31.7% and 32.0% respectively [7][9]. Core Insights - Bilibili Inc. reported revenue of Rmb7.0 billion for 1Q25, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 24% and slightly beating consensus estimates [1][2]. - Non-GAAP EPADS was reported at Rmb0.85, which is a 20% increase year-over-year and a 38% beat against consensus estimates [1]. - The company experienced a 4.5% increase in Daily Active Users (DAU) and a 7.8% increase in Monthly Active Users (MAU), reaching 107 million and 368 million respectively, likely aided by the Spring Festival Gala [2]. - Mobile games revenue surged by 76% year-over-year, while advertising revenue grew by 20% year-over-year, both aligning with expectations [2]. - The adjusted operating profit was Rmb342 million, exceeding the estimate of Rmb213 million, primarily due to disciplined sales and marketing spending [2]. Summary by Sections Earnings Results - Revenue: Rmb7.0 billion (+24% YoY) [1] - Non-GAAP EPADS: Rmb0.85 (+20% YoY) [1] - DAU: 107 million (+4.5% YoY) [2] - MAU: 368 million (+7.8% YoY) [2] - Mobile Games Revenue: +76% YoY [2] - Advertising Revenue: +20% YoY [2] - Adjusted Operating Profit: Rmb342 million (+61% YoY) [2] Future Outlook - Key focus areas include advertising outlook for 2Q/FY25, game pipeline for the remainder of 2025, margin expansion potential, and shareholder return plans for 2025E [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the hedge fund industry Core Insights - Hedge funds have maintained a positive return of +1% year-to-date (YTD) despite a challenging market environment, with a notable performance of +6% from the Hedge Fund Very Important Positions (GSTHHVIP) basket [2][19] - Short interest has surged, lifting hedge fund gross leverage to a new record, with $218 billion in ETFs and $948 billion in single stocks as of the start of Q2 2025 [3][35] - The median S&P 500 stock's short interest has increased to 2.3% of market cap, up from 1.8% in December 2024, indicating a rise above the long-term historical average [46][49] Performance, Leverage, and Short Interest - US equity long/short hedge funds have achieved a +1% return YTD, while the GSTHHVIP basket has outperformed with a +6% return [20][24] - Hedge funds have increased gross leverage to a record high, ranking in the 100th percentile compared to the last five years, while net leverage remains low [28][31] - The increase in gross leverage is attributed to a significant rise in short interest across both ETFs and individual stocks [35][28] Thematic Tilts - Hedge funds have the highest exposure to Cyclicals relative to Defensives since 2014, which has contributed positively to fund returns in Q2 [19][20] - Despite market volatility, hedge funds maintained steady exposure to AI stocks, with LRCX and MU joining the Hedge Fund VIP list [19][20] Sector Positions - Hedge funds reduced net tilts in Health Care while increasing positions in Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials [18][19] - The rotation away from Health Care was particularly focused on Biopharma, with BMY and CRL identified as Falling Stars [18] Hedge Fund VIP List - The most popular long positions among hedge funds include AMZN, META, MSFT, NVDA, and GOOGL, with 13 new constituents added to the VIP list [19][20] - The VIP basket has historically outperformed the S&P 500 in 59% of quarters since 2001, with an average quarterly excess return of 51 basis points [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it Core Insights - The UK and EU are working towards linking their carbon markets, which could alleviate trade frictions and benefit companies like SSE and Centrica, with SSE having 12 TWh of fixed generation and Centrica 7 TWh that could benefit from this linkage [8] - The current carbon market price difference is approximately €9/tonne, having narrowed by €32/tonne since the beginning of the year, with a £10/tonne change impacting UK power prices by £3.5/MWh and EBIT by approximately £40 million for SSE and £25 million for Centrica [8] - Centrica is selling a 46.25% interest in the Cygnus gas field for around £215 million, which includes £116 million in headline consideration and £99 million in decommissioning liabilities [9] - The Danish government has approved a new 3 GW offshore wind tender, with a total state support of DKK 27.6 billion (€3.7 billion) [10] - The US government has lifted the ban on the Empire Wind I offshore project, allowing construction to resume [11] - A significant increase in power demand is anticipated due to the rapid expansion of data centers, with a potential 10-15% boost to Europe's power demand over the next 10-15 years [14] - The report highlights a potential 40%-50% growth in electricity consumption in Europe over the next decade, driven by data centers and electrification [15] Summary by Sections UK Utilities - The UK and EU are exploring a link between their carbon markets, which could positively impact SSE and Centrica [8] - The narrowing carbon market price difference and its implications for power prices and EBIT for SSE and Centrica are discussed [8] Centrica - Centrica's sale of its interest in the Cygnus gas field is detailed, including financial implications [9] Offshore Wind and Data Centers - The approval of a new offshore wind tender in Denmark and the lifting of the ban on the Empire Wind project in the US are significant developments [10][11] - The report emphasizes the expected increase in power demand due to data centers and electrification trends in Europe [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies, including D.R. Horton Inc. (Buy, $124.93), Installed Building Products Inc. (Buy, $161.63), Meritage Homes Corp. (Buy, $67.87), and TopBuild Corp. (Buy, $295.50) [42]. Core Insights - The housing market activity scale remains flat at 4 for the week of May 11, which is 16% below the long-term average and down 7% year over year [5][10]. - New construction is expected to maintain a relative advantage over repair and remodel (R&R) activities, with building product companies like IBP and BLD being well-positioned [3]. - Spec-focused homebuilders such as MTH and DHI are viewed positively [3]. Summary by Sections Housing Market Activity - The index held at 4, indicating mixed indicators with a 2% increase in purchase applications and a 3% gain in home sales compared to the previous week [5][11]. - The 30-year mortgage rate increased by 5 basis points to 6.81%, contributing to the uncertainty in the housing market [24]. Market Dynamics - Active listings increased by 14% year over year, although they remain 14% below the 2019 average [15]. - The median sale price rose by 2% year over year, while 40% of homes were off the market within two weeks, an increase from 37% in the same week of 2019 [15][21]. Mortgage Market Update - Total mortgage applications rose by 27% year over year, with purchase applications up 18% year over year [33]. - Refinancing applications increased by 44% year over year, indicating a robust refinancing market despite the rising mortgage rates [24][35].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - Delivery Hero's Baemin is launching a bundled offering with the OTT platform Tving, enhancing its value proposition into a broader lifestyle platform [3] - The Baemin Club, which includes unlimited free food delivery and grocery discount coupons, is being expanded to include Tving for an additional fee, positioning Baemin competitively against Coupang's Wow Membership [3] - Coupang Eats has seen significant growth, with monthly active users (MAUs) reaching 10.44 million in April 2025, up from 3.2 million a year ago, while Coupang Play reached 6.82 million MAUs [3] - By integrating Tving and pursuing further content and commerce partnerships, Baemin aims to create a compelling and cost-effective ecosystem for its subscribers [3] Summary by Sections Delivery Hero and Baemin - Baemin is set to roll out the Baemin Club-Tving bundle on June 2, allowing users to access Tving for an additional W3,500/month on top of the Baemin Club fee [3] - The Baemin Club was launched in September 2024 and already offers benefits like unlimited free food delivery and grocery discount coupons [3] Competitive Landscape - Coupang's Wow Membership, priced at W7,890/month, is gaining traction with bundled access to Coupang Play and Eats delivery, featuring exclusive content like HBO and Premier League [3] - The competitive dynamics are highlighted by the significant growth in Coupang Eats MAUs, indicating a strong market presence [3] Strategic Positioning - Baemin's strategy to integrate Tving and enhance its subscription model reflects a shift towards a more comprehensive lifestyle offering, aiming to attract and retain customers in a competitive market [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WNC with a 12-month price target of NT$182, representing an upside of 48.0% from the current price of NT$123 [8]. Core Insights - WNC is diversifying its business into new regions and sectors, including automotive, LEO satellites, and 5G communication, to capture growth opportunities [2][6]. - The company has production sites in Taiwan, Mexico, Vietnam, and mainland China, and is actively planning for further diversification of its production capacity [3]. - WNC's LEO satellite user terminal solutions are expanding, with expectations for satellite revenue contribution to reach 23% by 2026, up from 20% in 2024, driven by the growing Space Economy [6]. Summary by Sections Business Diversification - WNC's revenue is primarily from the American market, but the company is expanding into European and Asian markets supported by new projects [2]. - The company is entering the automotive sector with products like Radar and DMS cameras, as well as expanding into LEO satellites and 5G communication [2]. Production Strategy - Despite tariff uncertainties, WNC has production sites across multiple regions and is planning new capacity for diversification, which typically takes 18-24 months to ramp up [3]. - Management has noted a pull-in of client demand due to tariff concerns, although this is contingent on the lead time of key materials [3]. Satellite Solutions - WNC is enhancing its offerings in LEO satellite user terminals, including power supply, antennas, and routers, and is positioned to benefit from the growth in satellite subscriber numbers [6]. - The company has accumulated experience in satellite products, which is expected to contribute significantly to its revenue growth in the coming years [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to United Spirits with a 12-month price target of Rs 1,710, indicating an upside potential of 9.8% from the current price of Rs 1,557.45 [11]. Core Insights - United Spirits is well-positioned to benefit from the premiumization trend in the Indian spirits market, particularly in the whisky segment, where Scotch is experiencing the fastest growth at a CAGR of 16% from FY18 to FY23 [8]. - The company's share of revenue from luxury and premium brands within the Prestige and above segment has increased from 26% in FY18 to 37% in FY23, reflecting its strategic focus on premium variants [8]. - Despite potential challenges from a slowdown in urban consumption, the reopening of sales in Andhra Pradesh is expected to mitigate overall growth moderation [8]. - Standalone EBITDA margins are projected to expand from approximately 16% in FY24 to around 18% in FY27, driven by productivity enhancements and operating leverage [8]. - Consolidated EPS is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14% over FY24-27, with a valuation based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 58x Q5 to Q8 EPS, aligning with the 3-year average P/E for the stock [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In 4QFY25, United Spirits reported consolidated net sales growth of 8.3% YoY, with standalone net sales growth at 10.5% YoY [1][5]. - Consolidated EBITDA grew approximately 38% YoY, driven by gross margin expansion, while consolidated PAT increased around 40% YoY, significantly exceeding estimates [1][5]. - Standalone EBITDA margins expanded by approximately 360 basis points YoY, supported by an improved mix within the Prestige segment and cost efficiency initiatives [3][6]. - Total volume growth for the company was approximately 6.9% YoY, with the Prestige and above segment growing at about 9.2% YoY, while the Popular segment saw a decline of 2.2% YoY [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Rio Tinto Ltd. with a 12-month price target of A$140.80, indicating an upside potential of 18.1% from the current price of A$119.22 [17]. Core Insights - Rio Tinto has entered a joint venture with Codelco to develop the Maricunga lithium project in Chile, which aligns with its growth and value creation strategy [1][4]. - The Maricunga project is expected to enhance Rio Tinto's lithium production significantly, potentially increasing its equity share to over 250ktpa by 2035 [10]. - The company is leveraging its Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technology, which offers higher lithium recoveries and lower capital expenditures compared to conventional methods [8][9]. Summary by Sections Joint Venture and Project Development - Rio Tinto will acquire a 49.99% interest in the Maricunga project for a total of US$900 million, with initial funding for studies and construction costs [2]. - The project aims for first production by the end of the decade, with potential additional payments contingent on production milestones [2]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The report forecasts that lithium will contribute approximately 6% of Rio Tinto's EBITDA by 2030, driven by the Rincon lithium project and the Maricunga joint venture [10]. - The company is expected to achieve a free cash flow yield of around 6% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, supported by bullish projections for copper and aluminum prices [16]. Production and Growth Outlook - Rio Tinto's copper equivalent production is projected to grow by approximately 20% and EBITDA by over 30% by 2030, primarily due to the ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine and improved productivity in the Pilbara region [16]. - The Pilbara region is anticipated to contribute significantly to the company's free cash flow improvements from 2025 to 2027 [16]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The report highlights Rio Tinto's strong market position, trading at approximately 0.7x NAV, which is competitive compared to peers [16]. - The company is recognized for its high-margin, low-emission aluminum production, which is powered by hydroelectric energy [16].