Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Apple supply chain in the current environment, particularly for premium iPhone models which are expected to be more resilient to tariff changes [2]. Core Insights - The US market is projected to account for 28% of Apple's smartphone sales and 40% of its PC sales in 2024, while the China market is expected to account for 19% and 13% respectively [2]. - Production sites outside of China, particularly in Vietnam, are anticipated to meet US market demand for iPhones and Macbooks, with major assemblers like Hon Hai and Luxshare having the capacity to ramp up production if necessary [2]. - The report highlights that Apple, as a premium brand, is less price sensitive, especially for its premium models, which could provide a buffer against potential tariff impacts [3]. Summary by Sections Apple Supply Chain and Tariff Updates - US Customs and Border Protection has released guidance indicating that smartphones, computers, servers, and semiconductors are exempt from the Reciprocal Tariff, benefiting the Apple supply chain [1]. - The report includes detailed analysis of Apple’s supply chain, including production site distribution and revenue exposure in the US [1][9]. Market Share Insights - In the US market, Apple is projected to hold a 52% market share in smartphones and a 27% market share in PCs by 2024 [13][15]. - In contrast, Apple's market share in China is expected to be 15% for smartphones and 13% for PCs in 2024 [18][20]. Revenue Exposure and Production Sites - The report provides a comprehensive overview of various companies within the Apple supply chain, detailing their revenue exposure to Apple and production locations [9][10][12]. - Companies like Hon Hai and Luxshare are noted for their significant production capabilities, with Hon Hai's iPhone assembly capacity primarily in China, India, and Brazil, while Luxshare also operates in Vietnam [2].

USA: GS Economic Indicators Update (Rindels) 7 April 2025 | 1:52PM EDT Please find an update of our proprietary economic indicators below. The data behind these exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found on our living page here. The nominal GS US Financial Conditions Index tightened by 42.5bp to 99.95 over the last week, mostly due to lower equity prices, and the real GS US FCI tightened by 50.2bp to 99.62: Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec P ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The GS Financial Conditions Index (FCI) indicates a tightening of financial conditions globally, primarily driven by equity market selloffs due to tariff impacts, contributing 47 basis points to the tightening in the US FCI last week [2][4] - The global economic outlook shows a decrease in GDP growth forecasts for 2025, particularly in Asia and North America, with notable reductions in several countries [10][96] - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for March shows a global value of +2.1%, with emerging markets performing better than developed markets [51] Summary by Sections Financial Conditions Index (FCI) - The FCI is designed to assess the overall financial conditions across major economies, providing insights into GDP growth outlook and monetary policy transmission [4] - Recent data shows a tightening in the Global ex Russia FCI, primarily due to equity market performance [8] - The US FCI experienced a significant tightening, with contributions from long rates, short rates, credit spreads, and equities [32][33] GDP Forecast Changes - The report highlights a downward revision in GDP growth forecasts for 2025 across various regions, with North America and Asia Pacific seeing the most significant declines [10][96] - Specific countries like Argentina and Turkey have shown notable changes in their GDP forecasts, with Argentina's forecast increasing by 1.0 percentage points [96][97] Current Activity Indicator (CAI) - The CAI for March indicates a global increase, with emerging markets showing stronger performance compared to developed markets [51] - The CAI values for specific countries reveal varied economic activity, with Spain at +3.6% and Brazil at +0.5% [51] Wage and Price Inflation - The report includes wage trackers and inflation measures, indicating trends in wage growth across different regions [21][68] - The wage growth in the US and other developed markets is being closely monitored as it impacts inflation expectations [21][68] Fiscal Impulses - The report discusses the effects of fiscal policy on real GDP growth, indicating varying impacts across different regions, with the US and Euro Area showing significant fiscal impulses [82][83] Output Gaps - The report provides insights into short-run utilization scores across various countries, indicating how much of their potential output is being utilized [88][89]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a constructive outlook on datacenter operators, indicating they can sustain profitability levels above historical norms, despite tempered AI demand expectations [5]. Core Insights - The global datacenter supply/demand model has been updated, indicating a loosening of supply constraints earlier than previously expected, with peak occupancy now forecasted for 2025 instead of 2026 [3][13]. - Occupancy rates are projected to remain above historical levels, with a gradual loosening expected from 2026 through 2027, stabilizing around average levels seen over the past 18 months [3][45]. - Demand growth forecasts have been adjusted, particularly for AI workloads, reflecting a more gradual pace of AI training demand and a net decrease in incremental demand over the next 18 months [12][15]. Supply and Demand Overview - The current global datacenter market capacity is estimated at approximately 63 GW, with a significant portion owned by hyperscaler and cloud providers [25]. - By 2030, the total datacenter capacity is expected to reach approximately 131 GW, translating to a 6-year CAGR of ~14% [35]. - The report highlights that the mix of datacenter workloads will shift further towards cloud workloads, with hyperscale and wholesale datacenters expected to comprise about 75% of the total by 2030 [35]. Demand Forecast - The global datacenter market demand is estimated to grow by ~50% to 86 GW by 2027, with AI workloads increasing to 27% of the overall market [15]. - AI workload demand is projected to grow at a 38% CAGR, while traditional corporate workloads are expected to grow at a modest 3% [20]. Supply Forecast - The report indicates that supply sufficiency is expected to decrease by an average of 3% in 2025, 7% in 2026, and 6% in 2027, with a long-term forecasted supply sufficiency of 86% by 2030 [13]. - The datacenter supply model reflects a historical increase of ~2 GW due to actual capacity increases and adjustments to historical supply tracking [12]. Power Demand and Sustainability - Datacenter power demand is projected to increase by ~160% by 2030 compared to 2023 levels, contributing approximately 1% CAGR to overall US power demand [75]. - The report anticipates that 40% of the datacenter power increase will be met with renewables, with the remaining 60% expected to be driven by natural gas generation [76]. Grid Investments - The report estimates that approximately $720 billion will be required for grid investments through 2030, primarily focused on distribution and transmission upgrades to support datacenter growth [68].

11 April 2025 | 9:59PM BST GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagflation risks Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA +44(20)7774-1714 | christian.mueller- glissmann@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Andrea Ferrario +44(20)7552-4353 | andrea.ferrario@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Alessandro Giglio +44(20)7051-6240 | alessandro.giglio@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Peter Oppenheimer +44(20)7552-5782 | Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagf ...

11 April 2025 | 7:12PM BST Global FX Trader Dollar Wreckoning Our Thoughts on USD, JPY, CNY, Flows, GBP, EM FX, AUD & CAD, and KRW n USD: Rates up, Dollar down? That's not exceptional. Last week, we revised our Dollar outlook as we flipped our view about how tariffs would impact the currency, and developments since then have raised our conviction in this view. Specifically, we think that the design and implementation of these tariffs should have a negative impact on the currency because they have contribute ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the year-end gold price forecast to $3,700/toz from a previous estimate of $3,300/toz, with a projected range of $3,650-3,950/toz [5][7][19]. Core Insights - The gold price has reached a new all-time high of $3,245/toz, recovering sharply after a 5% drop due to margin calls during an equity selloff [3][6]. - Stronger-than-expected central bank demand and increased recession risk are significant factors driving the upgraded forecast [5][19]. - The report indicates a 45% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, which could lead to accelerated ETF inflows and potentially lift gold prices to $3,880/toz by year-end [19][24]. Summary by Sections Gold Price Dynamics - The gold price has shown resilience, recovering from a drop linked to US tariff announcements, with speculative positioning falling sharply while ETF holdings increased due to recession concerns [3][6]. - The report notes that physical demand in the East has risen as prices decreased, contributing to the recovery [3][6]. Central Bank Demand - The central bank buying assumption has been nudged up to 80 tonnes per month, reflecting a strong nowcast of 106 tonnes in February, significantly above previous assumptions [10][19]. - China was identified as a major buyer, accounting for 50 tonnes in February [13][19]. ETF Inflows and Recession Risk - Historical data suggests that ETF flows tend to overshoot during recession concerns, and the report incorporates this into its forecasting model [16][19]. - If a recession occurs, ETF inflows could return to pandemic levels, supporting prices towards $3,880/toz by year-end [24][25]. Upside Risks - The report highlights that risks to the upgraded forecast remain skewed to the upside, with potential scenarios illustrating gold prices reaching $4,500/toz by the end of 2025 under extreme conditions [23][25]. - Conversely, if economic growth surprises positively, ETF flows may revert to previous predictions, leading to year-end prices closer to $3,550/toz [24][29].

US Sector Views 10 April 2025 | 5:30PM EDT Our sector model's updated recommendations are selectively defensive Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David J. Kostin +1(212)902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ben Snider +1(212)357-1744 | ben.snider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-7 ...

Global Markets Comment: Too Early for the "All Clear" (Wilson/Chang) 10 April 2025 | 11:38AM EDT Too Early for the "All Clear" Yesterday's reversal on trade policy capped a dramatic week in markets. We have consistently argued that a reversal in the proposed tariffs was by far the most direct route to stabilizing markets. With signs of stress emerging in the US Treasury market emerging on Tuesday, that relief arguably prevented an acceleration in the market turmoil. Investors should consider this report as ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses expectations for the Treasury curve and market conditions, indicating a cautious outlook given rising recession risks and market volatility [3][6][24]. Core Insights - The report highlights a breakdown in the typical relationship between Treasury yields and risk assets during risk-off periods, with Treasuries exhibiting relative weakness despite broader risk-off sentiment [2][5]. - A significant factor contributing to the current market dynamics is the recalibration of fiscal risks, particularly in light of potential recession scenarios and legislative developments [10][23]. - The report emphasizes the fragility of the rates market, with deteriorating market depth and price impact measures, suggesting a need for close monitoring of funding conditions and Treasury auction performances [5][24][22]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Recent volatility in the Treasury market is attributed to a mix of cyclical risks and shifts in the perceived supply/demand balance for Treasuries, exacerbated by positioning and thinner market liquidity [5][7]. - The current Treasury convenience yield has decreased sharply, indicating a relative cheapening of Treasuries compared to other forms of duration [10][14]. Economic Outlook - The report forecasts a steepening of the 2s10s Treasury curve towards 70 basis points by year-end, with historical precedents suggesting potential steepening above 100-150 basis points during prior recessions [3][6]. - The intersection of growth downside and inflation upside risks poses challenges for Treasuries' hedge value in portfolio settings, complicating the investment landscape [23][24]. Foreign Selling Concerns - While there are concerns about potential foreign selling of dollar assets, the report suggests that recent market movements do not clearly indicate this dynamic, with more focus on broader demand weakness [18][22]. - The report notes that shifts in the mix of reserve assets could pose medium-term risks for supply absorption, warranting attention to Treasury auction outcomes [22][24]. Portfolio Implications - The evolving role of Treasuries in investment portfolios is highlighted, with competing forces between growth and inflation impacting their value as a hedge [23][24]. - The report suggests that a sharp deterioration in market function could increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve response to support market stability [24][26].