Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kelun Pharmaceutical is Neutral, with a target price raised to RMB 41 from RMB 39, indicating a potential upside of 31.5% from the current price of RMB 31.18 [6][4][3]. Core Insights - Kelun Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of RMB 11.827 billion for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, which aligns with the forecast [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.8 billion, a 28% increase year-on-year, but below expectations [1]. - The actual tax rate for the first half of 2024 was estimated at 36%, higher than anticipated due to the expiration of previous tax incentives [1]. - The company is a leading player in the infusion products market and a significant entity in the APIs and generic drugs sector, with growth driven by the ramp-up of innovative drugs [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 23.89 billion, with net profit estimates of RMB 3.136 billion, reflecting a 3% increase from previous estimates [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 2.20, up 2.8% from earlier predictions [2]. Valuation Methodology - The target price of RMB 41 is derived using a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, applying a 16.6x P/E ratio for the infusion and generic drug business, consistent with global peers [4]. - The valuation also considers the market value of investments in subsidiaries and a discounted cash flow approach for the innovative drug segment [4]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - Kelun Pharmaceutical's current implied P/E ratio is 15.8x, which is relatively reasonable compared to the industry average of 16.6x [3]. - Key growth drivers include fluctuations in API prices, the speed of innovative drug launches, and updates on centralized procurement policies [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for the company [1][3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 27.91 billion and a net profit of RMB 4.37 billion for the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and 2% respectively, which aligns with forecasts [1][3]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue and net profit of RMB 15.99 billion and RMB 3.04 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 11% and 7% respectively [1][3]. - The life sciences and industrial testing segments experienced steady growth, while the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors faced challenges [1][3][7]. - The gross margin improved by 2 percentage points in the second quarter, attributed to efficiency gains from digitalization and the expansion of higher-margin chemical testing services [1][3]. - The company anticipates a slight improvement in performance for the second half of 2024, driven by accelerated growth in traditional food and environmental testing [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 27.91 billion and a net profit of RMB 4.37 billion, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9% and 2% [1]. - The second quarter results were RMB 15.99 billion in revenue and RMB 3.04 billion in net profit, with year-on-year growth of 11% and 7% [1][3]. Segment Performance - Life Sciences: Revenue grew by 22% year-on-year in the first half and 23% in the second quarter, driven by traditional food and environmental testing [1][3]. - Industrial Testing: Revenue increased by 14% year-on-year in the first half and 8% in the second quarter, supported by digitalization and carbon emission certification [3]. - Pharmaceutical Sector: Revenue declined by 34% year-on-year in the first half and 15% in the second quarter, although the decline rate narrowed in the second quarter [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects a decrease in revenue contribution from soil testing in the second half, but anticipates accelerated growth in traditional food and environmental testing [1][3]. - The management forecasts a stable growth of approximately 20% in the traditional consumer testing segment and a recovery in semiconductor testing [2][3]. Valuation - The report adjusts the earnings per share forecast for 2024-2027 upwards by 1% to 2%, reflecting the company's performance and outlook, with a 12-month target price raised to RMB 15.0, based on a 21x P/E ratio for 2025 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report provides a neutral investment rating for the covered companies, indicating a cautious outlook on the real estate sector in China [25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in new housing sales, with first-hand housing sales down 23% year-on-year and second-hand housing sales showing a slight increase of 3% year-on-year [16][19]. - The report notes that the average sales area of first-hand housing has decreased by 33% year-to-date compared to the previous year, with a notable decline in sales across various city tiers [13][14]. - Inventory levels have slightly decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous month, with a total inventory month count of 26.7 months, indicating a tightening market [19][20]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - First-hand housing sales area decreased by 23% month-on-month and year-on-year, with second-tier cities showing a 7% decline [8][10]. - Year-to-date, first-hand housing sales area has averaged a 33% decline compared to the previous year, while second-hand housing sales have decreased by 3% [13][16]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the sales volume of top 100 developers may decline by 8% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the previous month's 40% decline [16]. - The report also mentions that the expectation of price increases among sellers is weakening, despite a slight increase in second-hand housing sales [16][19]. Construction and Inventory - New construction area is expected to decline by 30% to 35% year-on-year for July and August, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [3][22]. - The report tracks that the completion area is projected to decrease by nearly 20% year-on-year, with an overall expected increase of 3% for the year [22][23]. Valuation - The report notes that the current price-to-book ratios for both mainland and overseas listed developers are at historical lows, with discounts of 56% and 40% to expected net asset values, respectively [25][26].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][10]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's automotive parts business is experiencing stable growth, supported by the increasing demand for both fuel and new energy vehicles. The company is expected to become a competitive supplier of planetary roller screws for humanoid robots, benefiting from its entry into the high-end humanoid robot supply chain [7][10]. - The report highlights that the company's revenue, gross profit, EBIT, and net profit for Q2 2024 were RMB 354 million, RMB 121 million, RMB 64 million, and RMB 74 million respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 9%, 4%, 1%, and a decline of 2% in net profit [2][6]. - The report notes a slowdown in the growth rate of the automotive parts business, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in the first half of 2024 compared to 20% in 2023. The decline is attributed to seasonal factors and a slowdown in the downstream market [2][3]. Financial Overview - Q2 2024 financials: Revenue of RMB 354 million (+9% YoY), Gross Profit of RMB 121 million (+4% YoY), EBIT of RMB 64 million (-8% YoY), and Net Profit of RMB 74 million (-2% YoY) [2][6]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 34%, a decrease of 2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 21%, down 2 percentage points year-on-year [2][6]. - The company expects to achieve approximately RMB 10 million in sales from its machine tool components by the end of the year, with positive progress in commercializing ball screws and linear guide products [3][5]. Market Outlook - The management anticipates a recovery in the growth rate of the automotive parts business in the second half of 2024, with turbocharger component revenue expected to grow by over 10% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with plans for a factory in Anhui to begin mass production in Q4 2024 and a new facility in Thailand expected to start construction in the second half of 2024 [2][3]. - The report projects that the company will capture 5% of the global market share in high-end humanoid robot planetary roller screws by 2024, increasing to 15% by 2025 and contributing 8% to incremental revenue by 2027 [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the company or industry analyzed [1]. Core Insights - The neutral real rate (r*) is a crucial benchmark for monetary policy and financial markets, representing the equilibrium real policy rate that neither stimulates nor contracts economic growth [3][4]. - Recent estimates suggest that the neutral real rates in the US and other major developed economies are higher than previously thought, particularly post-pandemic [1]. - The study highlights that the differences in neutral real rates across countries are primarily driven by GDP per capita, inflation rates, and current account balances, with specific impacts quantified [1][17]. Summary by Relevant Sections Neutral Real Rate Estimation - The neutral real rate can be estimated through economic models or inferred from financial market pricing, with market-based measures being particularly useful for cross-country comparisons [4][5][6]. - The analysis includes 12 developed and 24 emerging market economies, using data back to 2000 to derive neutral real rate estimates [6]. Cross-Country Differences - The report identifies that the neutral real rates in emerging markets (EM) and developed markets (DM) have moved in tandem over the past 25 years, with fluctuations largely driven by changes in US/global r* [9][10]. - Factors affecting country-specific risk premia, such as economic development levels and inflation volatility, play a significant role in explaining cross-country differences in r* [11][12]. Key Drivers of Neutral Real Rates - The analysis finds that a 10 percentage point increase in GDP per capita lowers neutral real rates by 12 basis points, while a 1 percentage point increase in average inflation raises them by 33 basis points [17]. - Improvements in current account balances lead to a decrease in neutral real rates, with a 1 percentage point improvement lowering rates by 7 basis points in general and by 20 basis points in emerging economies [17]. Macroeconomic Stability - The findings suggest that macroeconomic stability can yield high returns, with lower inflation and improved external balances providing pathways to sustainably lower interest rates and capital costs [19][20]. - The case of Turkey illustrates that strong economic growth does not necessarily correlate with high equilibrium rates, indicating that effective macroeconomic policies can lead to lower real interest rates [21].

Election Dynamics and Polling Trends - The presidential race has shifted significantly, with Vice President Harris now leading by around 3pp nationally, up from a 1pp lead earlier [4][6] - Harris has gained ground in key swing states, particularly in Sunbelt states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, where her support has increased by 5pp on average [6] - The race remains highly competitive, with 7 swing states worth a combined 100 electoral votes now within roughly 2pp of even [6][7] Policy Implications of Election Outcomes - A Democratic sweep could lead to significant fiscal legislation in 2025, including higher corporate and high-income taxes, expanded family benefits, and new welfare programs [2] - In a divided government scenario, policy changes would be more limited, with only the expiration of certain 2017 tax cuts for high-income individuals likely to occur [2] - Harris is expected to release an economic plan soon, which may resemble Biden's budget proposal but with additional spending on areas like healthcare, childcare, and housing [40] Congressional and Senate Outlook - Democrats hold a slight 0.8pp lead in the generic ballot for the House, but the Senate remains highly competitive, with Democrats likely to lose Sen Manchin's seat in West Virginia [30][35] - Prediction markets now favor a Harris win with divided government as the most likely outcome, overtaking the previous consensus of a Republican sweep [37][38] - A Democratic House and Republican Senate would likely shift the political center slightly to the left, given the Senate's historical tendency to operate closer to the center [39] Economic and Market Influences - Economic indicators like GDP growth, consumption, and payrolls have a stronger relationship with election outcomes than equity market moves, particularly earlier in the election year [19][22] - A rise in the unemployment rate could negatively impact the incumbent party, with each 0.1pp increase associated with a 0.4pp reduction in the Democratic vote share [23] - Voters' trust in handling the economy remains mixed, with recent polls showing Harris gaining a slim advantage, though Trump still leads in some key states [26][27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Mindray Medical (300760.SZ) and a "Neutral" rating to United Imaging (688271.SS) [21][22]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the procurement amount for major medical devices in China is gradually improving, although it has not yet reached a turning point. The procurement amounts for five out of seven tracked medical devices increased month-on-month in July 2024, while year-on-year growth remains negative for all seven devices [5][6]. - The report anticipates that market growth will normalize in the second half of 2024 and into 2025, driven by a reduction in the impact of anti-corruption measures [5][6]. - Mindray Medical is expected to benefit from multiple growth drivers, including a recovery in procurement activities and the latest developments in medical equipment update policies [21]. - United Imaging is positioned to lead the domestic replacement process in medical imaging equipment, with significant market share growth expected in MRI and CT devices by 2032 [22]. Summary by Sections Mindray Medical - Mindray Medical is a leading medical device manufacturer in China, focusing on patient monitoring systems, medical imaging, and in vitro diagnostics. Domestic market revenue accounted for 61% of total revenue in 2023 [21]. - The stock is currently trading below its five-year average P/E ratio, primarily due to policy risks. The company is expected to maintain its market leadership due to a strong product portfolio and competitive pricing [21]. - The 12-month price target for Mindray Medical is set at RMB 450, with an implied upside of 73.2% from the current price of RMB 259.78 [25]. United Imaging - United Imaging is recognized as a leader in medical imaging equipment in China, with a projected market size increase from RMB 53.5 billion in 2021 to RMB 101 billion by 2032 [22]. - The company is expected to capture significant market share in MRI and CT devices, with annual revenue growth projected at 18.6% over the next 11 years [22]. - The 12-month price target for United Imaging is RMB 149, with an implied upside of 29.4% from the current price of RMB 115.13 [26].

2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 2024年8月12日 | 6:31PM EDT 美国经济日评: 7月份CPI前瞻 | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | n | Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 \| jan.hatzius@gs.com 高盛集团 | | | Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 \| alec.phillips@gs.com 高盛集团 | | n | David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 \| david.mericle@gs.com 高盛集团 | | | Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 \| ronnie.walker@gs.com 高盛集团 | | | Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 \| manuel.abecasis@gs.com 高盛集团 | | n | Tim ...

2024年8月12日 | 9:11AM CST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 宏发股份 (600885.SS): 2024年二季度业绩符合预期，汽 车继电器业务表现好于预期，2024年公司指引上调；买入 宏发股份在8月8日盘后公布的2024年二季度业绩显示，公司实现收入/毛利/EBIT/净利 润人民币37.78亿/13.09亿/6.76亿/4.88亿元（同比+11%/+7%/+1%/+28%），较我们 的预测高4%/低1%/高4%/高14%。剔除2023年二季度非经常性项目（远期外汇合约公 允价值变动损失人民币1.32亿元）的基数因素影响后，2024年二季度净利润同比下降 6%。总体而言，公司已将2024年收入指引从同比增长7-13%上调至目前的同比增长 10-15%。我们预计公司收入将同比增长15%，处于指引区间高端，得益于强劲的订单 势头（目前在手订单为2-3个月，而生产周期为1个月，2024年上半年产能利用率回升 至80-85%，而2023年为70%）。我们预计：1) 国内电力继电器招标强劲，2024年下 半年收入确认潜在走强；2) 高压直流继电器收入将保持增长势头； ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a year-end 2024 target for the S&P 500 index at 5600, representing an 8% increase from current levels [3]. Core Insights - The recent sell-off in the US equity market has been attributed to concerns over the sustainability of economic growth, with the S&P 500 index experiencing a 6% decline over three days [1]. - Despite the downturn, the S&P 500 index remains 9% higher than at the beginning of the year, indicating resilience in the overall market [1]. - Historical data suggests that buying the S&P 500 after a 5% sell-off has typically resulted in positive returns, with a median return of 6% over the following three months [4]. - The report highlights a significant rotation from cyclical to defensive stocks, reflecting investor sentiment amid economic uncertainty [9]. - The expectation of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024 is likely to benefit defensive sectors, which historically outperform during such periods [13]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500 index has seen a sharp decline, but the overall level remains above the start of the year, indicating a potential buying opportunity [1][3]. - The report notes that the current P/E multiple of the S&P 500 is 20x, consistent with historical averages [3]. Economic Growth - The report forecasts US real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025, suggesting a stable economic environment despite recent market volatility [9]. Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as Utilities and Consumer Staples are expected to perform well as the Fed begins to cut interest rates, with historical data supporting this trend [13][16]. - The report identifies a basket of Stable Growth stocks as an attractive investment strategy during periods of economic deceleration, with these stocks historically outperforming the S&P 500 [16][19]. Valuation Insights - Mega-cap tech stocks have seen a decline in valuations, with their P/E multiple dropping from 32x to 27x, yet still above the 10-year median of 24x [23]. - The report indicates that the median P/E for Stable Growth stocks is 24% higher than the median S&P 500 stock, but this premium is below historical peaks [19]. Small Caps - The Russell 2000 index is expected to be more sensitive to economic growth than interest rate changes, with a significant portion of its companies being unprofitable [25][27].