Investment Rating - The report suggests a high chance of moving towards a recession baseline forecast, indicating a bearish outlook for the market [2][16][35] Core Insights - The market has experienced a significant downgrade in growth views following recent tariff announcements, with the downgrade being historically large, equivalent to a roughly 130 basis points drop in the 1-year ahead GDP growth view for the US [5][16] - The current market pricing does not fully reflect the potential for a recession, as historical comparisons indicate that typical recessions are associated with larger equity drawdowns and more substantial declines in the Fed funds rate than currently priced [16][27] - A policy shift, particularly in trade policy, is viewed as the most direct route to market recovery, with the potential for a significant reversal in intended tariff policy being crucial for stabilization [36][37] Summary by Sections Market Reaction to Tariffs - The market price action has been dramatic, with a broad-based decline across global equities and commodities following the tariff announcements [3][4] - Financial conditions have tightened sharply, and the initial focus on US assets has shifted to a more global perspective [3][4] Growth Downgrade and Policy Reaction - The report indicates a large growth downgrade alongside a hawkish policy reaction, with the market pricing reflecting a more constrained Fed response than usual [4][9] - The implied market growth decline for April 3 and 4 represents the largest 2-day move outside significant historical events such as Black Monday and the COVID lockdown [5][9] Recession Pricing and Market Conditions - Current market conditions suggest that a full recession is not yet fully priced, with only the VIX indicating levels associated with past recession peaks, while other common recession gauges remain below those levels [28][34] - The report highlights that the risks still skew to the downside unless there is a shift in the policy path, with a high chance of further weakness in equity markets and wider credit spreads if recession pricing continues to develop [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The potential implementation of an additional 50% tariff by the US on Chinese goods could escalate trade tensions, with the total effective tariff rate on Chinese goods rising from approximately 60% to 110% if enacted [2] - The initial 50% tariff is projected to decrease Chinese GDP by 1.5 percentage points, while a subsequent 50% tariff would have a smaller incremental impact, reducing GDP by an additional 0.9 percentage points [9] - The analysis indicates that a significant portion of US imports from China (36%) relies on China for over 70% of its supply, suggesting limited alternatives for US importers even with high tariffs [4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Tariff Implications - Following China's retaliatory tariffs of 34% on US goods, President Trump threatened an additional 50% tariff if China does not withdraw its tariffs, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [2][3] - The Chinese government has signaled a readiness to take countermeasures if further US tariffs are implemented, as evidenced by the People's Bank of China's actions regarding the CNY fixing [3] Section 2: Economic Impact Analysis - The report analyzes detailed trade data, estimating that a 60% US tariff on China could decrease Chinese real GDP by approximately 2 percentage points, with the initial 50% tariff causing a 1.5 percentage point reduction and a subsequent 50% tariff causing a 0.9 percentage point reduction [9][4] - The report highlights that US-bound exports contribute an estimated 3 percentage points to China's total GDP, emphasizing the significant economic interdependence between the two countries [9] Section 3: Trade Reliance - The distribution of US imports from China shows a high reliance on Chinese goods, with 36% of imports depending on China for over 70% of supply, while only 10% of Chinese imports from the US have a similar reliance [4][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating across equity regions to maximize diversification, with a shift to a more defensive asset allocation [4]. Core Insights - The market experienced a significant sell-off following the announcement of a reciprocal tariff policy by the US, leading to an 11% drop in the S&P 500, marking one of the largest two-day declines since the Great Depression [2][9]. - The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) saw one of its largest two-day drops since 1991, indicating a broad 'risk-off' sentiment across assets, with the RAI closing at approximately -1.4 [3][4]. - Historically, RAI levels near or below -2 have indicated better opportunities to 'buy the dip', with a hit ratio of over 90% for positive S&P 500 returns in the subsequent 12 months from such levels [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Reaction - The S&P 500's drop of 11% since the tariff announcement is the fifth largest two-day drop since the Great Depression, with US equities leading the sell-off across assets [2][9]. - Non-US equities initially reacted less sharply but saw accelerated declines later, while credit spreads widened, indicating increased credit beta to the equity sell-off [2]. Risk Appetite Indicator - The RAI dropped to around -1.4, with a tendency to bottom lower during previous market sell-offs, suggesting potential buying opportunities when it reaches levels near or below -2 [3][10]. - The credit component of the RAI fell rapidly, closing the gap with the equity component, although credit is still pricing a low probability of recession [3][4]. Asset Allocation - The report indicates a shift to a more defensive asset allocation, moving from Overweight (OW) equities to Neutral (N), while maintaining OW in bonds and underweight (UW) in credit [4][19]. - The probability of a sell-off for equities is now above 40%, driven by worsening market sentiment [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for the freight industry, particularly in the Transpacific tradelane due to anticipated declines in trade volumes following US tariff increases [1][2]. Core Insights - Q1 freight volume data showed positive growth, with ocean volumes up approximately 5% and China port volumes up 10% year-over-year. However, this growth is expected to decline as frontloading of US imports is likely to reverse [1]. - The report anticipates a decline in ocean freight rates driven by reduced Transpacific volumes, with carriers expected to cut capacity by at least 5% globally [2][3]. - The air cargo sector is also projected to experience declining volumes, with significant drops noted in key markets such as Memphis and Europe [18][20][22]. Summary by Sections Freight - Q1 benefited from frontloading, but the outlook is weaker moving forward, with US retailers forecasting a mid-single-digit year-over-year import decline by June [1][13]. - Ocean freight rates are expected to decline further, influenced by the anticipated drop in volumes and subsequent capacity reductions by carriers [2][3]. Air Freight - Air freight volume growth is slowing, with new orders and inventory ratios indicating weaker demand trends [18][20]. - Cargo volumes at major European hubs have decreased year-over-year, reflecting broader trends in air cargo [22][25]. Shipping - The report highlights falling freight rates, particularly in the Transpacific and Atlantic routes, with spot rates expected to continue their downward trend [80][82][88]. - The report notes that charter rates have risen, but scrapping of vessels remains low, indicating a potential buffer for carriers as demand softens [101][103]. Travel - There is uncertainty regarding demand outlook in the travel sector, with a noted decline in foreign arrivals to the US and weaker trends in European short-haul travel [4][9]. - The report suggests that significant declines in travel demand are unlikely unless employment levels fall [9].

2025年4月6日 | 9:03AM HKT 大中华区科技: 关税 - 下调30家企业的盈利预测和目标价格 美国总统特朗普于4月2日签署行政令，对180多个国家加征10%至50%的额外关税 （新闻链接，高盛宏观经济研究报告）。我们预计成本上升可能导致：(1) 需求走弱： 品牌客户通过提高售价将关税转嫁给终端消费者，导致出货量或收入下降；(2) 利润率 承压：品牌客户从其他方面节省成本，致使产品规格升级放缓（这也可能导致需求走 弱）或挤压供应链利润率。我们分析了所覆盖企业，并将30家企业的盈利预测下调了 0.1%至9%，将目标价下调了0.2%至9%，从而反映关税影响。 关税对不同产品板块的影响： 在本报告中，我们重点列出了大中华区科技企业的美国业务收入占比（图表 1）、各 地区产能分布（图表 1）以及30家企业的盈利预测和目标价格调整。更多分析请参见 报告：GC Tech: Tariffs announced on Mexico/ China /Canada。 盈利预测调整框架：(1) 美国终端市场占比：我们估测每家企业最终产品在美国市场上 的收入占比：AI服务器供应链、美国品牌（如苹果、惠普、戴尔）和低地球轨 ...

摘要 问答 高盛：美国关税对亚洲经济的影响：增长、通胀和市场反应 20250403 白宫最近宣布征收关税将对亚洲产生哪些广泛影响？ 白宫最近宣布的关税是近一个世纪以来关税的最大幅度增长，从亚洲的角度来 看，情况比预期的要糟糕。除了遵守与加拿大和墨西哥签署的 USMCA 贸易协定 的国家外，美国政府将对所有国家征收 10% 的关税。此外，关税将根据外国对 美国的贸易顺差计算，这意味着顺差越大，关税就越高。与其他地区相比，亚 洲经济体往往对美国拥有巨大的贸易顺差，因此这些关税对亚洲经济体的打击 更大。虽然大多数人预计关税范围可能在 10-20%，但加拿大和墨西哥面临的关 税低于预期，合规贸易实际上为零。按美国进口加权后，新的平均关税税率增 加了 18.3%，但由于产品排除，实际税率可能在 12.6% 左右。钢铁、铝、汽车、 半导体和药品等某些产品类别有特定的现有关税或即将实施的关税，不会立即 受到这一新公告的影响。例如，中国在今年早些时候已经征收了 20% 的关税， 现在又面临额外的关税。总而言之，除加拿大和墨西哥外，所有国家的关税下 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海 ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on gold while being cautious on oil and copper prices, reflecting a mixed investment rating across commodities [2][3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the direct impact of announced and expected tariffs on US industrial metals and the indirect effect on commodities due to weaker global growth, leading to bearish oil and bullish gold sentiments [2][3]. - It emphasizes that the US reciprocal tariffs will primarily affect commodities through their negative economic growth impact rather than direct tariff imposition [3][6]. - The report suggests that the recent sell-off in gold presents an attractive entry point for long positions, supported by ongoing central bank buying and increased ETF demand amid recession fears [17]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact on Commodities - Tariffs on US imports of steel and aluminum are expected to remain, with copper likely to be included later this year, while energy and gold are exempt from these tariffs [2][3][4]. - The report anticipates that the tariffs will have a significant indirect negative impact on global economic growth, which is expected to weigh on oil demand and prices [2][11]. Oil Market Outlook - The report has lowered its December 2025 Brent/WTI crude oil price forecasts to $66/$62 per barrel from $71/$67 previously, citing a larger-than-expected increase in oil supply from OPEC and reduced oil demand growth expectations [11][12]. - The report indicates that the risks to the oil price forecast are skewed to the downside, particularly for 2026, due to recession risks and increased OPEC+ supply [12]. Industrial Metals Analysis - The report maintains a cautious near-term view on copper prices, with potential for prices to dip below $9,000 per ton in 2Q2025 if retaliatory tariffs escalate [15]. - It notes that existing tariffs on steel and aluminum are likely to keep US industrial metals prices higher compared to the rest of the world, but the overall demand outlook remains weak [15]. Gold Market Insights - Following the recent tariffs announcement, gold prices have seen a modest decline, but the report views this as an opportunity for investors to establish long positions [16][17]. - The year-end forecast for gold is maintained at $3,300 per ounce, with a range of $3,250 to $3,520, indicating upside risks to the forecast [17].

4 April 2025 | 5:59PM EDT US Weekly Kickstart What to watch during the 1Q 2025 earnings season David J. Kostin +1(212)902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ben Snider +1(212)357-1744 | ben.snider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-7744 | kartik.jaya ...

4 April 2025 | 10:51AM EDT Weekly Fund Flows How Brief is the Relief? Global fund flows, week ending April 2 | | | Global Fund Flows Summary | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Millions USD | | % AUM | | | | 4wk sum | 2-Apr | 4wk avg | 2-Apr | | Equity | 33,793 | 2,143 | 0.04 | 0.01 | | Fixed Income | 25,546 | 9,932 | 0.08 | 0.12 | | of which: EM | -1,407 | 1,163 | -0.07 | 0.23 | | Money Markets | 4,821 | 22,536 | 0.01 | 0.23 | | FX Flows* | 23,204 | 11,987 | 0.05 | 0.10 | *Cross-border fund flows, ex ...