全球经济分析 n 我们估算，在此前贸易战期间，美国对中国进口商品在产品层面的关税税率每提 高1个百分点已推动进口下降1-2%，这与学术研究显示关税的短期贸易弹性平均为 1.3%一致。在我们对关税的基线预测下，美国进口需求下降可能导致约1,000亿美 元商品重定向至其他经济体。 n 贸易战对通胀的影响将取决于诸多因素，包括其他国家是否采取报复措施、经济 增长放缓的程度以及汇率市场对关税作何反应。我们的估算显示，贸易重定向可 能会对美国以外发达市场的价格构成进一步下行压力，然而，这与我们总体鸽派 的汇率展望一致。 全球经济分析 We expect that the second Trump administration will deliver tariffs that raise the effective tariff rate on US imports from China by 20pp (driven by increases up to 60pp on the list 1-2 items from the 2018-2019 trade war). We also expect an increa ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The sentiment around the health of the US consumer has improved, reaching its highest level in nearly three years, with solid real income growth across various income groups [11][20]. - Companies are planning to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs through strategies such as passing costs to customers, stockpiling goods, and reshuffling supply chains [44][46]. - The labor market appears fully rebalanced, which is putting downward pressure on wage and price growth, with wage growth expectations around 3.5% [25][30]. Summary by Sections Economic Activity - Real revenues excluding energy grew by 4.6% year-over-year in Q3, marking the fastest pace since Q1 2022 [6][10]. - Earnings grew by 8% year-over-year, surpassing consensus expectations of 3% growth [6][10]. Consumer Spending - Consumer spending remains robust, with company commentary indicating that consumers are spending in a healthy manner despite pressures on lower-income households [11][20]. - Real retail spending among lower-income consumers has been positive over the last year, and the spending gap across income levels has narrowed [20][21]. Labor Market - The labor market is described as healthy but cooling, with companies reporting continued hiring and waning wage pressures, especially in lower-skilled service industries [25][30]. - Mentions of labor shortages and costs have decreased, returning to pre-pandemic levels [30][31]. Tariff Impact - Companies are preparing for potential tariff increases by planning to pass costs to consumers, stockpile goods, and adjust supply chains [44][46]. - Anecdotal evidence suggests that US imports from China have increased following the recent elections, indicating companies are already taking steps to mitigate tariff impacts [46][47].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a baseline scenario for China's 2025 economic outlook, with a real GDP growth forecast of 4.5%, down from 4.9% in 2024 [8][9] Core Views - Chinese policymakers are expected to lean against the wind to stabilize domestic consumption and the property market while managing renewed US-China trade tensions in 2025 [6] - The US effective tariff rate on Chinese goods is assumed to increase by 20pp, leading to a 0.7pp drag on China's real GDP in 2025 [7][9] - Policymakers are expected to cut policy rates by 40bp and expand the augmented fiscal deficit by 1.8pp of GDP in 2025 to counteract growth headwinds [9] Economic Growth and Drivers - China's real GDP growth is expected to decelerate from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025, with a shift in growth drivers from exports to policy support [8][9] - Exports, which contributed 70% of GDP growth in 2024, are expected to decelerate sharply in 2025 due to higher US tariffs, with total goods export volume remaining flat [8][50] - Consumption, especially goods consumption, is expected to outperform, while property investment declines continue [9] Inflation and Deflation - CPI and PPI inflation are projected to be 0.8% and 0%, respectively, in 2025, below consensus expectations [17] - Structural factors, including industrial overcapacity and weak consumer confidence, are expected to weigh on inflation [17] Property Market - The property sector is expected to remain a significant drag on growth, with a projected 2.0pp negative contribution to GDP in 2025 [41] - New home starts and government land sales revenue have declined by more than 70% and 60%, respectively, from their 2020-21 peaks [36] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to play a key role in 2025, with the augmented fiscal deficit widening by 1.8pp of GDP to 13.0% [76] - The PBOC is expected to cut policy rates by 40bp in 2025, with two 20bp cuts in Q2 and Q4 [86][100] Trade and Tariffs - Chinese exports to the US are expected to decline significantly in 2025, while exports to other countries may increase modestly [51] - The current account surplus is expected to decline to 1.6% of GDP in 2025 from 2.1% in 2024, driven by a narrower goods trade surplus and a wider services trade deficit [55] Labor Market and Consumption - The labor market remains weak, with youth unemployment reaching 18.8% in August 2024 [30] - Household consumption growth is expected to stay flat at 5.0% in 2025, supported by subsidy programs and potential wealth effects from the stock market [24][25] Long-Term Growth Outlook - China's real GDP growth is expected to average 3.5% from 2025 to 2035, significantly lower than the 9.0% average during 2000-2019 [4][14] - The leadership's focus on technology-driven and high-quality growth is expected to continue, with "technology" and "high-quality" becoming more frequently mentioned in policy speeches [13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - The upcoming US election is pivotal for economic policy, with contrasting views from candidates on tariffs, taxes, and regulation, which could have significant macroeconomic implications [2][5] - Despite differing proposed economic policies, the report suggests that asset impacts may be modest if major policy tail risks are avoided, with a friendly macro outlook being a more significant market driver [2][7] Summary by Sections Economic Policies Overview - The report highlights the stark differences in economic policy approaches between the candidates, particularly in trade and tax policy, with insights from economists on both sides [7][15] - Kevin Hassett emphasizes the need for expanding tariffs on China due to unfair trade practices, while Jared Bernstein advocates for targeted tariffs to protect consumers and domestic producers [11][17] Trade Policy - Hassett supports reciprocal tariffs to ensure fairness in trade relationships, while Bernstein warns against sweeping tariffs that could harm consumers and lead to retaliation [12][17] - The report discusses the potential global inflation and growth impacts of tariffs, particularly on China, and the implications for US monetary policy [7][17] Tax Policy - Hassett argues for extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and maintaining lower corporate tax rates, while Bernstein supports raising the corporate tax rate to 28% to ensure fiscal sustainability [13][18] - The report mentions the proposed global minimum tax of 15% as a means to combat tax avoidance by multinationals, which both economists view as essential [19] Broader Economic Outlook - The report notes a lowered probability of a US recession, with job growth and inflation trends being closely monitored [4] - It highlights the importance of addressing market failures in affordable housing and childcare as key issues for the next administration [16][21]

Research 证券研究报告 | 2024年10月16日 | 12:07AM HKT CHINA RESILIENCE 聚焦中国高韧性企业 –腾讯控股 (0700.HK) 超级应用构筑生态系统，游戏业务布局全球 (摘要) | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report presents three global paths for decarbonization, with the most realistic scenario being aligned with a 2.0°C increase in global temperatures, suggesting a more achievable target compared to the 1.5°C scenario [3][51]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in cumulative emissions, with a 66% rise compared to the 2021 Paris Agreement-aligned scenario, indicating a challenging path to achieving net zero [6][51]. - The energy sector has faced substantial changes since 2021, including the global energy crisis, which has impacted emissions trajectories and necessitated a revised approach to decarbonization [51][52]. - The report emphasizes the need for approximately US$75 trillion in infrastructure investment to achieve carbon neutrality, underscoring the scale of financial commitment required [5][10]. Summary by Sections Emissions Path Developments - Total global CO2 emissions reached a record high of 43.2 Gt in 2023, increasing by 2.2% from 2021-2023, contrary to the initial expectation of a 5% reduction [41][44]. - The power generation sector contributed significantly to the rise in emissions, with a 2% increase instead of the anticipated decrease [41][44]. Changes Compared to 2021 Scenarios - The updated GS 2.0° scenario reflects a more realistic approach to achieving net zero by 2070, contrasting with the previous GS <2.0° scenario aimed at 2060 [51][52]. - The report notes that renewable energy sources, particularly solar and nuclear, have surpassed previous estimates, while the development of wind capacity has been slower than expected [8][12]. Investment Opportunities - The report estimates a cumulative investment opportunity of approximately US$74.6 trillion across various sectors on the path to global net zero by 2070 [10][12]. - Investments in oil and natural gas are projected to remain necessary beyond 2040, indicating a continued reliance on fossil fuels during the transition [36][38]. Sector-Specific Insights - In transportation, the penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) has exceeded expectations, with a 35% share in global passenger car sales in 2023 compared to a projected 13% [44][49]. - The buildings sector has seen a 2% reduction in emissions, driven by the deployment of low-carbon technologies and a shift towards renewable energy sources [45][49].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry but indicates that companies with stronger relative Nature Performance trade at modest premiums to laggard peers [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing focus on Nature and Biodiversity as a critical area for corporate sustainability strategies and sustainable investors, driven by various catalysts such as the need for Nature-based solutions and the physical and financial risks associated with biodiversity loss [5][6][8]. - The GS SUSTAIN Nature Tool is introduced as a framework to measure corporate transparency and performance related to biodiversity, aiming to provide investors with a clearer understanding of companies' impacts on nature [10][33]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Nature is gaining momentum as a focus area for corporate sustainability strategies, with five catalysts identified: the need for Nature-based solutions, efficiency improvements, risks of biodiversity loss, permitting processes for land development, and responses to the Global Biodiversity Framework [5][6][19]. GS SUSTAIN Nature Tool - The GS SUSTAIN Nature Tool measures corporate exposure, transparency, and performance related to biodiversity through a framework that includes assessing business activities, plans, and performance metrics [10][33]. Biodiversity Transparency and Performance - The report emphasizes that while data on biodiversity is scarce, existing data can provide context for company analysis, revealing that few companies have sector-leading plans and performance on relevant indicators [11][12]. - Companies with strong Nature Performance are observed to trade at a premium, while those with strong transparency plans tend to trade at a discount [13][24]. Stock Performance - Nature Performance leaders have underperformed compared to laggard peers and the MSCI ACWI since early 2022, indicating potential discovery value for companies with strong performance-driven outcomes [14][40]. - Nature Plan/Transparency leaders have shown similar stock performance to laggards, with both outperforming the MSCI ACWI in certain sectors [41][44]. Nature & Biodiversity Adopters and Enablers - Investors are likely to focus on sectors with high potential negative impacts on biodiversity, such as Food & Beverage and Metals & Mining [22]. - Companies providing adaptive solutions to mitigate nature-related risks are expected to gain investor favor, highlighting the importance of water resiliency, land management, and technology solutions [23][24]. GS SUSTAIN Nature Framework and Relative Valuation - The report notes that while Nature Performance leaders trade at a premium, Nature Plan leaders consistently trade at a discount, suggesting that the market rewards performance-driven outcomes over mere disclosure [24][35].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhifei Biological (300122.SZ) is Neutral [2][4][16]. Core Views - Zhifei Biological is a major player in the Chinese vaccine market, with core products including the quadrivalent/nine-valent HPV vaccine (in collaboration with Merck), shingles vaccine (in collaboration with GSK), and self-developed vaccines and tuberculosis products. The company is expected to launch several products in the next three years, which should support revenue growth. However, the quadrivalent/nine-valent HPV vaccine may face a decline starting in 2025 due to the latest agreement with Merck [2][4]. - The report highlights key events to watch: the launch of the human diploid cell rabies vaccine, the 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, and the quadrivalent influenza vaccine, as well as new product licensing from multinational companies [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Zhifei Biological, indicating that the current valuation is reasonable compared to the historical average pre-COVID-19 [2][4]. Financial Projections - The 12-month price target for Zhifei Biological is set at RMB 52, based on a two-stage discounted cash flow valuation method, with a discount rate of 9% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [3][4]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 52.92 billion for 2023, RMB 55.59 billion for 2024, RMB 51.37 billion for 2025, and RMB 50.44 billion for 2026 [4]. Key Products and Developments - The report notes that the RSV vaccine developed by GSK has entered Phase III clinical trials in China, with an expected completion date for the primary endpoint follow-up in March 2025. If successful, it may receive approval from the National Medical Products Administration in the first half of 2026 [1]. - The quadrivalent/nine-valent HPV vaccine is expected to face a decline starting in 2025, which is a significant concern for the company's revenue [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Envicool (002837.SZ) [1][8] Core Insights - Envicool reported robust Q2 performance, aligning with its previous earnings forecast, with revenue, gross profit, EBIT, and net profit showing significant year-on-year growth of 36%, 39%, 96%, and 82% respectively [1] - The company anticipates continued strong growth in its data center (liquid cooling) temperature control business, driven by increased orders in June and July, although growth in the energy storage temperature control segment is expected to slow [1][4] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on enhancing product value and expanding its customer base both domestically and internationally, particularly in the CPU server market [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2024, Envicool's financials were as follows: revenue of RMB 967 million, gross profit of RMB 311 million, EBIT of RMB 120 million, and net profit of RMB 121 million, all exceeding prior forecasts [1][4] - The gross profit margin for Q2 was 32%, with EBIT and net profit margins at 12% and 13% respectively, reflecting improvements compared to previous periods [1][4] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2030 slightly upward by 1%, with a new target price set at RMB 33.1, based on a 30x P/E ratio for 2025 [1][8] Business Segment Insights - The data center temperature control revenue grew by 86% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, driven by strong demand from domestic cloud and hosting clients, as well as telecom operators [1][2] - The liquid cooling business maintained approximately 100% year-on-year growth, supported by projects in China and Southeast Asia [1][2] - The energy storage temperature control segment saw only an 11% year-on-year increase, attributed to a high base effect from 2023 and declining prices in temperature control systems [2][4] Strategic Outlook - Envicool aims to maintain a strong R&D focus while improving operational efficiency, with plans to enhance its product offerings and expand into overseas markets [4][7] - The company is also focusing on securing service contracts for energy storage projects to drive sustainable growth [4][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 12-month target price of RMB 26, down from RMB 27, based on a 14x exit P/E multiple applied to the expected EPS for 2026 [1][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain industry-leading performance due to its strong brand, extensive distribution network, and comprehensive product/brand portfolio, despite a slight downward adjustment in EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 by 3-5% due to weak consumer demand [1][6][7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the high-end kitchen appliance market in China, expanding into rapidly growing categories such as dishwashers and integrated cooking appliances, with projected revenue and net profit growth in the high single to double digits from 2022 to 2026 [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are RMB 11,386 million, with a year-over-year growth of 1.6%. The 2025E revenue is projected at RMB 11,998 million, reflecting a growth of 5.4%, and 2026E at RMB 12,653 million, with a growth of 5.5% [3][5]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to be 50.6% in 2024E, slightly decreasing from previous years, while the net income for 2024E is projected at RMB 1,790 million, with a year-over-year growth of 3.3% [3][5]. - The company’s EPS is forecasted to be RMB 1.89 for 2024E, with a growth of 3.3% from the previous year, and is expected to reach RMB 2.15 by 2026E [3][5]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has a dominant position in the high-end range hood and gas hob markets, with stable growth in core products. The focus on independent product development since 2019 has allowed the company to expand its market share in structural growth categories, particularly in dishwashers [6][7]. - Potential short-term catalysts for growth include the successful launch of new products in emerging categories and a rebound in real estate market demand [7][8].