Hikvision (002415.SZ): 2Q gradual recovery on overseas and innovative business; Multi-modal AI models to enhance performance; Neutral 13 June 2025 | 9:16PM HKT c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 Goldman Sachs 2Q25 outlook: We expect Hikvision 2Q25 revenues to grow 5% YoY (vs. 1Q25 at 4% YoY), or 33% QoQ to Rmb24.7bn on better seasonality, and on overseas and innovative business expansion. We model 2Q25 GM at 43.9%, improving from 4Q24 GM at 41.6% as the company is focusing on business with higher margin. We e ...

中金公司 5 月金融数据解读 20250613 摘要 5 月新增贷款同比减少，公司贷款少增 2000 亿，反映信贷需求不足， 尤其是中长期对公贷款和零售贷款增速低于 8%，表明实体经济需求恢 复缓慢。LPR 调降未能有效刺激企业贷款需求，2025 年以来企业贷款 需求整体下降。 社融同比多增主要依赖政府债券发行，而非信贷增长，政府成为主要加 杠杆主体。政府债券投向项目收益产生周期较长，导致金融数据与实体 经济景气度存在滞后效应。短期对公、票据贴现和非银贷款支撑社融数 据，但未能完全反映真实需求。 银行负债压力较大，依赖政信类大项目维持稳定，批发、制造业等领域 信贷需求未完全恢复。未来流动性受财政政策和大型项目进展影响，需 关注金融脱媒现象，资金从银行体系转移至其他渠道，增加银行流动性 压力，削弱货币政策传导效果。 居民短期贷款因银行促销力度下降而减少，中长期贷款受益于房贷利率 下调和提前还贷率下降而有所好转，与商品房销售数据基本吻合。对公 贷款受限，绿色普惠金融虽增速下降但仍是重要贡献部分，信贷需求压 力依然存在。 Q&A 目前的信贷需求情况如何？对市场有何影响？ 2025 年以来整体下降，这也一定程度上表明 ...

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10 June 2025 | 11:03AM HKT China Semis: Longsys (301308.SZ): Memory module supplier expanding to enterprise market; Controller IC to ramp up in 2025E We talked to Longsys (301308.SZ, Not Covered) management recently. Longsys is memory module supplier and provides embedded memory, SSD, DRAM modules for consumer, automotive and enterprise clients. Overall, management is positive on company's expansion to enterprise market, driven by rising demand on storage solution with high bandwidth and low latency, with r ...

10 June 2025 | 10:26AM HKT China Semis: Ingenic (300223.SZ; NC): Computing and memory chipsets riding on mix upgrade towards more advanced solutions We talked to Ingenic (300223.SZ, Not Covered) management recently. Ingenic provides computing, memory, and analog chipsets for industry clients (consumer, automotive, industrial etc.). Overall, management is positive on a 2025 growth recovery post a weak 2024, with inventory bottoming and improving demand from automotive and industrial clients. The company is w ...

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen Mindray, setting a target price of Rmb330, which implies an expected return of 44.8% from the current price of Rmb232.50 [4]. Core Insights - Market interest in Shenzhen Mindray has significantly increased, with investors focusing on long-term growth drivers and anticipating an inflection point soon [1]. - Mindray is currently trading at 21x FY25E P/E, which is 2x standard deviation below its five-year mean of 37x, indicating potential undervaluation [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from AI-assisted Intelli-digital solutions, which will enhance market share and improve margins [3]. - Recurring businesses accounted for 44% of Mindray's revenue in FY24, with strong growth expected in various segments, including minimal invasive surgery and IVD [6]. Summary by Sections Investor Day Preview - The 2025 Investor Day will focus on AI solutions and the transformation of recurring business, showcasing Mindray's latest progress in its business strategy [2]. - Key presentations will be made by the Head of R&D and General Managers of Intelli-digital solutions [2]. AI and Digital Solutions - Mindray's "equipment + IT + AI" digital intelligence strategy is expected to differentiate it from competitors and capture market share in high-end hospitals [3]. - The company plans to install IT solutions in over 3,000 tier III hospitals in China within three years, significantly increasing its current installations [3]. - Mindray's overseas business is projected to grow at 15%-20% year-over-year, with current market share in overseas markets being less than 3% compared to approximately 20% in China, indicating substantial growth potential [3]. Recurring Business Growth - The minimal invasive surgery segment recorded a CAGR of 46% from 2019-2024 and is expected to maintain over 30% CAGR going forward [6]. - APT Medical and IVD segments also show strong growth trajectories, with expected CAGRs of over 20% and around 20%, respectively [6].

中金公司 高端装备：近期热点板块观点汇报 20250608 摘要 华为人形机器人战略聚焦云上大脑与边侧小脑协同、云端仿真和数据合 成，以及持续闭环生态，算法研发是核心，通过真机采集和仿真平台合 成数据，华为云承担关键角色，构建全国性生态网络。 华为自 2017 年起深耕 AI 加机器人领域，2023 年加速发展，通过深圳 聚亨智能创新中心落地及频繁路演，并与多家上市公司合作，加快人形 机器人开发步伐，预计 2025 年下半年在算法和仿真环节取得突破。 近期华为生态链发展迅速，开发者大会推动及华为云与上市公司合作加 速，例如与优必选签约，哈勃投资入股千寻智能，表明华为开放芯片、 算法及仿真平台，共同推进人形机器人发展。 物流领域人形机器人应用增加，德玛科技展示人形机器人分拣系统，永 创智能与泡泡玛特代工厂合作引入包装环节，人形机器人导入有望显著 降低占主营业务成本 3-5%的物流成本。 无人物流小车行业受益于政策支持和技术进步，商业模式逐渐成熟，成 本优势显著，顺丰、京东等企业已开始大规模应用，上下游订单增速迅 猛，预计 2025 年为量产落地元年。 Q&A 6 月份以来，人形机器人板块的热点话题有哪些？ 6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Most Preferred" rating for several companies in the APAC Tech sector, including TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics, all rated as "Buy" [11][12]. Core Views - The report highlights the significant impact of tariff outcomes on end-demand, indicating that while the effect is material, the exact degree is difficult to quantify [9]. - AI demand is confirmed to be on track, with Nvidia's supply chain accelerating [9]. - A weakening memory cycle is anticipated, with expectations of oversupply for NAND and DDR DRAM from Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 [9]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The smartphone unit growth forecast has been lowered to flat YoY for 2025-2026, while PC growth is expected at +2% for both years [10]. - The report forecasts that the 3MMA YoY semiconductor revenue growth peaked in April 2025, with the next trough expected in Q2 2026 [10]. Key Stock Coverage - Top picks include TSMC and SK Hynix, both rated "Buy," with price targets indicating significant upside potential [11]. - Other recommended stocks include Samsung Electronics, SEMCO, and LG Innotek, all with favorable ratings and price targets suggesting substantial upside [12]. Sector Preferences - The report categorizes APAC Tech stocks into "Most Preferred" and "Least Preferred," with a clear bias towards value stocks in the technology sector [12]. - The report indicates an overweight position in leading-edge foundries and memory semiconductors, while being underweight in back-end equipment and displays [12]. Model Portfolio Performance - The "Most Preferred" portfolio has shown a year-to-date return of -8.5%, while the "Least Preferred" portfolio has returned 9.0% [13]. - Overall, the portfolio has achieved a significant return since inception, indicating strong long-term performance despite recent volatility [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanghai Putailai New Energy Tech Co Ltd is Equal-weight [5][79]. Core Insights - The price target has been adjusted downwards from Rmb14.00 to Rmb13.50, reflecting a 4% decrease [4][5]. - The bull case price target is now Rmb16.00, down from Rmb17.50, while the bear case target is reduced to Rmb9.70 from Rmb10.00 [4][5]. - The report indicates a 9% reduction in EPS estimates for 2025, 11% for 2026, and 8% for 2027, primarily due to the roll forward of valuation from 2024 to 2025 and a decrease in the target multiple from 15x to 14x [3][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is expected to experience lower revenue forecasts of 22% and 20% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, due to lower-than-expected sales volume of anode materials [8]. - An increase of approximately 2 percentage points in gross profit margin (GPM) and net profit margin for 2025 and 2026 is anticipated, attributed to better-than-expected GPM in 1Q25 and lower SG&A expenses [8][21]. Market Position - Shanghai Putailai has diversified its business across various battery materials, including anodes and separators, but faces challenges due to slower-than-expected global EV demand growth [11]. - The company is currently suffering from impairment losses in its anode materials segment, which is negatively impacting profitability [11]. Valuation Metrics - The valuation of Putailai is based on a P/E ratio of 14x for 2025e, which is considered a historical low, implying a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of approximately 1.4x, higher than its peers in the battery material sector [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for key companies including Inovance, AirTAC, and Leader Drive, reflecting a positive outlook for the sector [12]. Core Insights - The Factory Automation (FA) sector is experiencing a cycle inflection with improving demand trends, particularly in project-based and OEM markets. Companies are reporting positive growth across various sectors, driven by new product rollouts and strategic expansions [2][5]. - The competitive landscape is dynamic, with domestic brands outperforming foreign counterparts, and companies are strategically positioning themselves for long-term success despite initial earnings delivery being muted [2][18]. Latest Demand Checks & Order Trends - The Chinese automation market is recovering, with notable growth in sectors such as wind power and lithium batteries. Inovance targets 20% year-over-year growth in IA sales for 2025, while AirTAC projects low-teens revenue growth supported by 3C electronics and automotive sectors [5][25]. - Estun Automation reports solid demand for industrial robots, driven by investments in lithium battery and 3C electronics sectors, with key clients like CATL and BYD expanding capacity [25]. Pricing & Margin Dynamics - Pricing and margin dynamics are showing signs of improvement, with companies like Yiheda Automation targeting a 1.5 percentage points year-over-year improvement in gross profit margin (GPM) by diversifying its customer base [19][20]. - AirTAC is managing pricing pressures effectively, supported by stable inventory levels and strategic capacity relocation from Taiwan to Ningbo [22]. New Product Initiatives - Companies are focusing on innovation as a key driver for growth. Inovance plans to launch humanoid robots in the second half of 2025, while Estun is advancing AI-driven robotics products for manufacturing scenarios [28][29]. - Yiheda Automation is enhancing its automation components and exploring opportunities in the humanoid robot segment, aiming to standardize non-standard parts [29]. Competitive Landscape & Market Share - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with companies like Inovance targeting competition with industry giants such as ABB and Siemens. Yiheda Automation aims to strengthen its position in the non-core FA components niche market [32][33]. - Leader Drive is leveraging its early-mover advantage in the harmonic drive market, maintaining close relationships with leading industrial robot brands [32]. Strategic Expansion & Global Footprint - Companies are accelerating their overseas expansion to tap into new markets. Inovance is building brand recognition through overseas research centers, while Yiheda plans to increase its overseas sales exposure to over 10% in three years [33][39]. - Estun aims to double its European sales by 2025, and Leader Drive is establishing manufacturing bases abroad to enhance its global footprint [39].