Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Resources Beer [2][7][24]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 38.635 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, while the attributable net profit was 4.739 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year. Excluding factory impairment and relocation costs, profit growth was approximately 0.2% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has successfully implemented a high-end strategy, with high-end product sales doubling and profits increasing over three times since 2019. The high-end product sales continue to show strong growth [2][7]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.387 yuan per share, with a total dividend of 0.76 yuan per share for the year, resulting in a payout ratio of approximately 52% [2][3]. Financial Summary - Main business revenue is projected to grow from 38.635 billion yuan in 2024 to 41.908 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.5% [3][12]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 4.739 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.134 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 6.9% [3][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.46 yuan in 2024 to 1.89 yuan in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 23 times for 2025 [3][12]. Market Performance - The beer segment's revenue in the second half of 2024 is expected to decline by 0.4% to 13.92 billion yuan, with a volume decrease of about 1.2% due to weak demand and inventory reduction strategies [2][7]. - The company anticipates a recovery in sales in 2025, with a projected single-digit growth in beer sales, particularly for high-end products like Heineken, which is expected to grow over 20% [2][7]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency through the "Three Precision" strategy, which aims to streamline processes, reduce costs, and refine business actions [2][7]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong competitive position in both total and high-end beer markets, with a clear strategic direction for future growth [2][7].

证券研究报告 华润啤酒 (291 HK) 24 年压力中进取，25 年复苏中改善 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 18 日│中国香港 | 食品饮料 | 24 年营业总收入/归母净利 386.4/47.4 亿元，同比-0.8/-8.1%，还原关厂/安 置/补助/卖地等一次性收益，24 年核心归母净利同比+0.2%。对应 24H2 营 业总收入/归母净利 142.3/0.3 亿元，同比-9.0%/-93.3%，H2 啤酒同比走势 较 H1 有所改善、但白酒有所走弱，公司整体利润受政府补助及土地出售所 得减少影响较大（24 年同比减少 6.7 亿）。公司指出 25 年以来受益顺周期 政策拉动消费信心恢复，餐饮整体有所改善，1-2 月公司在高基数下实现销 量/营业额个位数增长，EBIT 增速更快，当前渠道库存低于去年同期，后续 顺周期/低库存/低基数催化叠加公司多项战略落地，有望带动基本面持续向 好。维持"买入"评级。 港股通 24 年啤酒销售承压、升级放缓，白酒聚焦调整 啤酒端，24 年啤酒收入/量/价/EBITDA 同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 16.78 [7][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be HKD 11.80 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 1.30 billion, a decrease of 20.8% year-over-year. This is slightly below previous expectations due to increased sales and R&D expenses, as well as higher tax expenses compared to the previous year [1][4]. - The second half of 2024 shows a recovery in revenue growth, primarily driven by increased demand for closed-system products due to stricter regulations on non-compliant e-cigarettes in the U.S. and bans on disposable e-cigarettes in several European countries. The company's proprietary brand VAPORESSO is also experiencing rapid growth [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 is expected to be HKD 5.04 billion, a decrease of 1.7% year-over-year, while the second half is projected to be HKD 6.76 billion, an increase of 11.2% year-over-year. The net profit for the first half is expected to be HKD 680 million, a decrease of 4.8%, and for the second half, HKD 620 million, a decrease of 33.2% [1][2]. Business Segments - The To B sales revenue for 2024 is projected to be HKD 93.2 billion, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-over-year. The first half is expected to generate HKD 39.2 billion, a decrease of 12.3%, while the second half is expected to recover with HKD 54.0 billion, an increase of 10.7% year-over-year. The U.S. market is expected to see a revenue increase to HKD 21.3 billion in the second half, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14.6% and a year-over-year increase of 5.2% [2][3]. Cost Structure and Margins - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 37.4%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to changes in the business structure leading to increased labor and indirect costs. The selling, administrative, and R&D expense ratios are expected to be 7.8%, 7.7%, and 13.2%, respectively, with the increase in selling expenses attributed to the expansion in international markets and new product promotions [3][4]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be HKD 1.59 billion, HKD 2.21 billion, and HKD 2.85 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.26, HKD 0.36, and HKD 0.46. The HNB business is expected to ramp up significantly by 2026, leading to an adjustment in valuation to a PE of 43 times for 2026 [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][9][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.12 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, while the net loss attributable to shareholders was 210 million RMB, a decrease of 126% year-on-year. The NON-IFRS net profit was 1.14 billion RMB, reflecting a 1% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The company’s strategic focus on IP (Intellectual Property) commercialization is showing significant potential, with a healthy cash flow growth of 123% year-on-year, reaching 2.53 billion RMB in 2024 [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin improved to 48.29% in 2024, up by 0.21 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio increased to 27.84%, up by 3.32 percentage points year-on-year, while the general and administrative expense ratio was well-controlled at 14.08%, down by 2.48 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Revenue breakdown shows that copyright operations generated 4.09 billion RMB, a 33.5% increase year-on-year, while online business revenue was 4.03 billion RMB, a modest increase of 2.1% year-on-year [3]. Business Strategy - The company has implemented a three-step strategy for IP development, achieving breakthroughs in both visualization and commercialization. In 2024, 330,000 new authors were added, and over 650,000 new novels were created, with new authors earning over 500,000 RMB increasing by over 70% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s IP commercialization efforts resulted in a GMV of over 500 million RMB for derivative products, with card products alone exceeding 200 million RMB [4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 81.6 billion RMB, 86.3 billion RMB, and 89.7 billion RMB, respectively. The NON-IFRS net profit is projected to be 1.26 billion RMB, 1.43 billion RMB, and 1.54 billion RMB for the same years [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6][7] Core Insights - The company's revenue and cost dynamics show improvement, with a significant reduction in losses and a substantial increase in operating cash flow, indicating ongoing operational improvement [6][7] - AI has become a core strategic focus for the company, with a full range of AI products launched across all product lines, and a strong customer demand expected to translate into performance [6][7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 6.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, and a net loss of 142 million yuan, down from a loss of 210 million yuan in the previous year [6][8] - Operating cash flow reached 934 million yuan, a 42.9% increase year-on-year, with cloud service revenue accounting for 81.6% of total revenue [6][8] - The gross margin improved to 65%, with a notable increase in productivity and a reduction in operating expenses [6][8] Growth Drivers - Large enterprises continue to be the growth engine, with significant contract growth and a renewal rate of 108%, indicating strong ongoing demand [6][7] - The company has embraced AI in its management solutions, integrating AI across various applications, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency for clients [6][7] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 7.326 billion, 8.700 billion, and 10.241 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 17%, 19%, and 18% [7][8] - The company anticipates a return to profitability with net profits projected at 165 million, 247 million, and 412 million yuan for the same period [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao [1][10] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 156.17 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.37 billion RMB, up 95.2% year-on-year [4][6] - The significant growth in performance is attributed to increased sales volumes and prices of aluminum and alumina, alongside a decrease in procurement costs for coal and anodes [6] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of nearly 63% and a dividend yield of approximately 10.7% [6][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, aluminum alloy product sales were approximately 5.837 million tons, up 1.5% year-on-year, with a unit price of 17,550 RMB/ton, a 6.6% increase, and a unit cost of 13,233 RMB/ton, down 2.7%, leading to a unit gross profit of 4,317 RMB/ton, up 50.8% [6] - Alumina sales reached about 10.921 million tons, a 5.3% increase, with a unit price of 3,420 RMB/ton, up 33.6%, and a unit cost of 2,208 RMB/ton, down 2.9%, resulting in a unit gross profit of 1,212 RMB/ton, up 324.7% [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 156.65 billion RMB, 162.26 billion RMB, and 166.81 billion RMB, with growth rates of 0.3%, 3.6%, and 2.8% respectively [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 25.21 billion RMB, 27.52 billion RMB, and 30.02 billion RMB for the same years, with growth rates of 13%, 9%, and 9% respectively [9] Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a current P/E ratio of 5.23 for 2025, decreasing to 4.39 by 2027, reflecting the company's strong earnings growth potential [9][10] - The projected ROE remains stable at around 22% for the next few years, indicating consistent profitability [10]

2025 年 03 月 19 日 买入（维持评级） 3 月 18 日，小鹏汽车公布 24Q4 及 24 全年财报： 1、营收：24Q4，小鹏交付汽车 91507 辆，同/环比+52.1%/+96.6%， Q4 营收 161.1 亿元，同/环比+23.4%/+59.5%。其中汽车业务营收 146.7 亿元，同/环比+20%/+66.7%；服务及其他业务营收 14.3 亿元， 同/环比+74%/+9.2%。我们计算 Q4 单车 ASP 16 万元，同/环比- 21.1%/-15.2%。24 年全年，公司累计交付 19 万辆，同比+34.2%；营 收 408.7 亿元，同比+33.2%，我们计算全年单车 ASP 18.9 万元，同 比-4.7%。 2、费用：Q4 研发/SGNA 费用分别为 20.1/22.8 亿元，研发/SGNA 费 用率分别为 12.5%/14.2%，环比-3.7pct/-2.0pct。 3、利润：Q4 毛利率 14.4%，同/环比+8.2pct/-0.9pct；其中汽车业 务毛利率 10%，同/环比+6pct/+1.4pct；其他及服务业务毛利率 59.6%，同/环比+21.4pct/-0.5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (291.HK) with a target price of HKD 34.3, representing a potential upside of 20.4% from the current price of HKD 28.5 [3][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the certainty of a performance turnaround in 2025 for China Resources Beer is greater than that of its competitors. The company is expected to achieve positive revenue growth in its beer business for the full year of 2025, supported by a strong start in the first two months of the year [6][10]. - The company's strategy of continuous premiumization is seen as more favorable compared to major competitors, with a projected sales volume decline of only 2.5% in 2024, which is less severe than that of its peers [6][10]. - The management's emphasis on the "Three Precision" strategy aims to streamline operations and reduce costs, which is expected to enhance profit margins in 2025 [6][10]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for China Resources Beer are as follows: - 2023: RMB 38,932 million - 2024: RMB 38,635 million - 2025E: RMB 39,575 million - 2026E: RMB 40,526 million - 2027E: RMB 41,455 million - The year-on-year growth rates are 10.4%, -0.8%, 2.4%, 2.4%, and 2.3% respectively [2][10]. - Core net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 5,259 million - 2024: RMB 4,766 million - 2025E: RMB 5,346 million - 2026E: RMB 5,758 million - 2027E: RMB 6,145 million - The year-on-year growth rates are 16.3%, -9.4%, 12.2%, 7.7%, and 6.7% respectively [2][10]. - Key financial ratios include: - PE ratios for 2025E: 16.1x - ROE for 2025E: 16.3% [2][10]. Market Positioning - The report indicates that China Resources Beer has a competitive edge over Budweiser APAC, with a stable management team and a sustainable strategic plan. The company is also expected to increase its dividend payout ratio from 40% in 2023 to 52% in 2024, with intentions to reach over 60% in the future [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China State Construction International (830 HK) with a target price of HKD 2.10, reflecting a potential upside of 28.8% based on a projected P/E ratio of 6.0 times for FY25 [4][5][14]. Core Views - The company's FY24 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.0% year-on-year to HKD 650 million, although this was below market expectations of HKD 780 million and HKD 770 million, primarily due to a slowdown in the Hong Kong office building curtain wall projects and a decrease in general contracting revenue [1][4]. - Despite a temporary slowdown in profit growth, the long-term development outlook remains solid, with a target to achieve new contract amounts, revenue, and net profit of at least HKD 35 billion, HKD 25 billion, and HKD 3 billion respectively by 2030 [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 total revenue decreased by 6.5% year-on-year to HKD 8.1 billion, with curtain wall revenue in Hong Kong and Macau growing only 8.4% to HKD 4.97 billion, compared to a 27.4% increase in FY23 [1][5]. - New contract value for FY24 fell by 4.2% year-on-year to HKD 11.5 billion, with a significant decline of 28.3% in the Hong Kong and Macau regions, while mainland new contracts rose by 33.2% to HKD 4.2 billion [2][5]. - The company has identified significant growth potential in its BIPV (Building-Integrated Photovoltaics) business, which has begun to generate electricity in various projects, aligning with national carbon reduction goals and international ESG requirements [3][4]. Financial Data Overview - Key financial metrics for FY24 include: - Revenue: HKD 8.1 billion - Net profit: HKD 650 million - Earnings per share: HKD 0.29 - Dividend per share: HKD 0.10, with a dividend yield of 6.0% [5][12]. - Forecasts for FY25 and FY26 project revenues of HKD 9.9 billion and HKD 11.6 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to reach HKD 789 million and HKD 964 million [5][12].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 19 日 华润啤酒（00291.HK） 目标估值：33 港元 当前股价：28.5 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 3244 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 3244 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 92.5 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 92.5 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 11.7 | | ROE（TTM） | 15.0 | | 资产负债率 | 48.7% | | 主要股东 | CRC Bluesky Limited | | 主要股东持股比例 | 51.91% | 股价表现 24 年稳定收官，25 年改善可期 消费品/食品饮料 面对复杂多变的市场环境、天气、低端市场容量收缩及基数影响，公司 24 年啤 酒销量承压但高端化跑赢行业，白酒整合初见成效，摘要大单品快速增长。25 年 1-2 月公司在高基数下取得良好开局，为全年利润恢复较快增长奠定基础。 ❑ 风险提示：极端天气影响、原材料成本上涨、高端化竞争加剧等。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 20 ...