Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company reported a robust performance in Q4 2024, with the main brand's offline retail sales growing approximately 10%, children's clothing sales increasing by 10-15%, and e-commerce sales rising by 30-35% [2][3] - The growth in children's clothing and e-commerce has accelerated compared to the previous quarter, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [3][4] - The company continues to launch competitive new products, including winter down jackets and various running shoes, enhancing consumer experience [5][6] - The financial outlook has been slightly adjusted downward for 2025-2026 due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with projected net profits of 1.14 billion, 1.30 billion, and 1.46 billion yuan for 2024-2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18.1%, 14.3%, and 12.4% respectively [3][7] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In Q4 2024, the adult apparel offline sales grew by about 10%, children's apparel by 10-15%, and e-commerce by 30-35%, with both children's and e-commerce sales accelerating compared to Q3 [3][4] Product Development - The company has introduced multiple new products, including the "ULTRA series" down jackets and various running shoes, which have been well-received in the market [5][6] Financial Forecast - The company expects net profits to be 1.14 billion, 1.30 billion, and 1.46 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 18.1%, 14.3%, and 12.4% [3][7] - The target price remains at 4.5-5.1 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 7-8x for 2025 [3][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China Tobacco Hong Kong is the only publicly listed company within the China Tobacco system, with significant potential for resource integration and market expansion [6][29]. - The company is expected to see steady growth in its core business of tobacco leaf imports and exports, with additional upside from cigarette and new tobacco product exports [6][58]. - The financial forecasts predict a substantial increase in net profit from HKD 598.77 million in 2023 to HKD 1,017.50 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 34.68% [1][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Chinese Tobacco Industry - China is the largest producer and consumer of tobacco, with a 36% share of global tobacco leaf production and 45% of global cigarette sales [6][16]. - The industry operates under a unified leadership and exclusive management system, ensuring stable governance and significant contributions to national revenue [19][20]. 2. China Tobacco Hong Kong - The company serves as the sole listed platform for China Tobacco's international trade, with a management team that has extensive experience in the tobacco industry [29][32]. - In 2023, the revenue breakdown shows that tobacco leaf imports account for 68%, exports for 14%, and cigarette exports for 10% of total revenue [34][37]. - The company has a significant margin from its tobacco leaf import/export business, contributing over 71% of its gross profit [37][39]. 3. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts revenue growth from HKD 11.84 billion in 2023 to HKD 15.32 billion by 2026, with corresponding net profits expected to rise significantly [1][6]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024-2026 are 19, 17, and 15 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation for investors [1][6].

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 66 0, implying a potential upside of 23 8% from the current price of HKD 53 3 [1][4] Core Views - The company's management has raised the 2024 full-year performance guidance, expecting revenue growth of around 50% and net profit growth of around 40% [1] - The company's main brand, Kefumei, achieved a GMV growth of 78 1% in 2024, driven by strong performance during the "Double 11" shopping festival and new product launches [1] - The company has raised its 2024 performance guidance three times, reflecting strong confidence in achieving its targets [2] - The company is expected to maintain high growth in 2025, driven by the expansion of key products and improved brand strength of its two major brands, Kefumei and Kelijing [2] - The company's medical aesthetic products are expected to be approved as scheduled, with the injection recombinant collagen product for eye wrinkles expected to be approved in Q1 2025 [3] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is expected to reach RMB 5,377 million, a 52 6% YoY increase, with net profit expected to reach RMB 2,044 million, a 40 8% YoY increase [9] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 82 3% in 2024E, with an operating margin of 42 4% [10] - The company's ROE is expected to be 34 7% in 2024E, gradually declining to 32 4% by 2026E [9] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 24 6x in 2024E to 15 0x in 2026E, reflecting strong earnings growth [9] Product and Brand Performance - Kefumei's GMV grew by 78 1% in 2024, with a growth rate of over 80% during the "Double 11" period [1] - Kelijing's GMV grew by over 150% during the "Double 11" period, driven by core products such as the Pong Pong Essence and Collagen Series [1] - The new product, Focus Cream, launched in 2024, has contributed to Kefumei's growth, providing a new growth driver beyond the Collagen Stick [1] Market and Industry Context - The company's stock price has shown strong performance, with a 52-week range of HKD 28 5 to HKD 58 0, and a current market capitalization of HKD 54,804 million [4] - The company's daily average trading volume over the past three months was HKD 164 2 million, indicating strong market interest [4] - The company is part of the cosmetics industry, with peers such as Proya and Shanghai Jahwa also showing strong performance [15]

Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 7.03, implying a 26.7% upside from the current price of HKD 5.5 [4][7] Core Views - The company's Q4 2024 performance was strong, with Saucony growing 50% YoY [2][7] - Xtep's main brand retail sales grew high single-digit YoY in 2024, while Saucony exceeded expectations with over 60% growth [7] - Full-year 2024 profit is expected to achieve 20% growth target [7] - The company is optimistic about 2025 performance, expecting double-digit growth [7] Financial Performance - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 14,712 million in 2024E to RMB 16,676 million in 2026E, representing a 9.4% CAGR [3] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 1,242 million in 2024E to RMB 1,576 million in 2026E, a 14.1% CAGR [3] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 40.9% in 2022 to 43.8% in 2026 [8] - ROE is forecasted to rise from 11.4% in 2022 to 14.9% in 2026 [8] Business Development - Xtep main brand: - Continuing to open larger stores and close smaller ones to improve store efficiency [7] - Over 60% of stores are 9th generation stores [7] - Expanding internationally, focusing on Southeast Asia, Middle East, Russia, and cross-border e-commerce [7] - Saucony: - Estimated to exceed RMB 1 billion in scale in 2024 [7] - Store efficiency estimated at RMB 300,000-500,000+ [7] - Plans to open flagship stores in tier 1 cities and expand to tier 2-3 cities [7] - Long-term operating margin target of 20%+ [7] Valuation - Current PE ratio: 10.5x (2024E), 9.5x (2025E), 8.4x (2026E) [3] - Target price of HKD 7.03 represents 12x 2025E EPS [7] - Dividend yield expected to increase from 4.8% in 2024E to 6.0% in 2026E [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Tianneng Power (00819) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 10.02, based on a 2025 PE of 6x [5][68] Core Views - Tianneng Power is a leading player in the lead-acid battery market for electric two-wheelers, with a market share exceeding 40% in China [3][12] - The lead-acid battery market is expected to benefit from the recovery of the electric two-wheeler industry, driven by policies such as the new national standard and trade-in programs [1][12] - The report forecasts that the lead-acid battery market for two- and three-wheelers in China will reach 323GWh by 2030, with a market size of RMB 113.1 billion [2][34] - Tianneng Power's lead-acid battery business has a high ROE, and the company is refocusing on this segment after reducing capital expenditure in the lithium battery business [4][56] Industry Analysis - Lead-acid batteries remain the dominant choice for electric two-wheelers due to their safety, economic value, and mature after-sales service network [2][30] - The penetration rate of lithium batteries in new electric two-wheelers is less than 10%, and lead-acid batteries are expected to maintain their leading position [2][29] - The new national standard for electric bicycles may relax weight limits, potentially increasing the battery capacity of lead-acid batteries [26][34] - Trade-in policies encourage the replacement of lithium batteries with lead-acid batteries, with additional subsidies of RMB 100 for such replacements [27][29] Company Strengths - Tianneng Power has a strong distribution network with over 400,000 terminal stores and partnerships with more than 3,000 distributors [4][51] - The company's lead-acid battery business has a high ROE, with historical ROE levels of 25% and 28% in 2019 and 2020, respectively [4][56] - Tianneng Power's lead-acid battery business has a consumer goods attribute, with 75% of its products sold directly to end consumers [4][51] - The company has a significant cost advantage in lead-acid batteries due to economies of scale and efficient production capabilities [49][54] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 88.63 billion, RMB 94.45 billion, and RMB 101.16 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -12%, 14%, and 12%, respectively [5][64] - Net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be RMB 1.39 billion, RMB 2 billion, and RMB 2.38 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -24%, 44%, and 19%, respectively [5][64] - The lead-acid battery business is expected to generate revenue of RMB 37.33 billion, RMB 42.93 billion, and RMB 48.08 billion in 2024-2026, with growth rates of -12%, 15%, and 12%, respectively [66][67] Market Position and Competition - Tianneng Power holds a leading position in the lead-acid battery market for electric two-wheelers, with a market share of over 40% [3][12] - The company's main competitors include Chaowei Power, which has a lower gross margin but higher net margin compared to Tianneng Power [45][46] - Tianneng Power's lead-acid battery business has a higher net margin than Chaowei Power, attributed to better cost control and economies of scale [45][46]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Laopu Gold, indicating strong growth potential and a favorable market position [17][91]. Core Insights - Laopu Gold has demonstrated exceptional performance with a stock price increase of 385% since its listing, significantly outperforming the Hong Kong consumer sector [18]. - The company achieved revenue and net profit growth of 148% and 198% respectively in the first half of 2024, driven by brand recognition and rising gold prices [54][61]. - The report highlights Laopu Gold's unique positioning in the high-end jewelry market, focusing on traditional craftsmanship and emotional value, appealing particularly to younger consumers [13][69]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - Laopu Gold's revenue for 2023 reached 3.18 billion RMB, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 58.6% from 2021 to 2023 [61]. - The company maintained a stable gross margin of approximately 41% over the past three years, indicating effective cost management [61]. - The average single-store revenue in 2023 was 100 million RMB, with a 113% increase in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year [28][61]. Competitive Advantages - Laopu Gold is recognized for its unique product designs and high-end branding, which differentiate it from competitors in the jewelry market [24][69]. - The company operates a self-owned store model, allowing for better control over product quality and customer service, which enhances brand image [77]. - Laopu Gold's focus on high-priced products, with 65% of sales coming from items priced between 10,000 and 50,000 RMB, positions it well in the luxury segment [73]. Market Overview - The Chinese jewelry market has shown robust growth, with a projected CAGR of 6.8% from 2023 to 2028, reaching a total sales revenue of 1.14 trillion RMB by 2028 [37]. - Gold products dominate the market, accounting for 63.2% of the total jewelry market share in 2023, with a market size of 518 billion RMB [37][40]. - Despite short-term demand fluctuations due to rising gold prices, Laopu Gold has managed to sustain strong performance, indicating resilience in its business model [49][54]. Future Growth Potential - Laopu Gold currently operates 36 stores, with significant room for expansion, potentially doubling its store count in the coming years [26][84]. - The company is well-positioned to tap into overseas markets, particularly in regions with significant Chinese populations, such as Singapore and the United States [28][87]. - The report forecasts continued strong growth, with net profit expected to reach 1.1 billion RMB in 2024 and 1.5 billion RMB in 2025 [91].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of HKD 15.48 and a target value of HKD 19.11 [5]. Core Views - The company has partnered with the Chinese Olympic Committee, which is expected to enhance its brand value. It will provide official sportswear for major events from 2025 to 2028, including the Winter Olympics and Asian Games [10]. - The company is anticipated to achieve stable growth in 2025, with improvements in discount and gross margin. Despite increased marketing expenses, the net profit margin is expected to remain above 10% [10]. - The company is focusing on expanding its store network, particularly through direct sales, and is expected to launch more cost-effective products in response to consumer trends [10]. - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is CNY 30.7 billion, CNY 30.4 billion, and CNY 33.7 billion, respectively. The report assigns a PE ratio of 15 for 2025, leading to a target value of HKD 19.11 per share [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from CNY 25.803 billion in 2022 to CNY 30.306 billion in 2026, with a growth rate of 14.3% in 2022, slowing to 6.0% by 2026 [4][14]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from CNY 5.162 billion in 2022 to CNY 6.906 billion in 2026, with a notable dip in 2023 [4][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline from CNY 4.064 billion in 2022 to CNY 3.374 billion in 2026, reflecting a challenging market environment [4][14]. - The company's EPS is projected to decrease from CNY 1.54 in 2022 to CNY 1.31 in 2026, indicating a potential decline in profitability [4][14]. Key Financial Ratios - The report highlights a decrease in ROE from 16.7% in 2022 to 10.1% in 2025, suggesting a decline in return on equity [13]. - The net profit margin is expected to decrease from 15.7% in 2022 to 11.1% in 2026, indicating potential profitability challenges [13]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is projected to improve from 27.7% in 2022 to 23.8% in 2026, reflecting a strengthening balance sheet [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 361 Degrees (01361) [6][7] Core Views - The company is expected to perform well in 2025, with optimistic projections for its future performance [1] - 361 Degrees has shown strong growth in its main brand and children's wear segment, with offline retail sales increasing by approximately 10% and 10%-15% respectively in Q4 2024 [1] - The e-commerce platform recorded a significant year-on-year growth of 30%-35% in overall turnover during Q4 2024 [1] Product Innovation - The company has focused on technology-driven product innovation, launching several new products in Q4 2024, including the "ULTRA Series Extreme Down," "Winter Dry Down Technology Down Jacket," and the "JOKER1" signature shoe for Nikola Jokic [2] - Other notable products include the "361° Yupeng Windbreaker," the "Speed FLOAT2" running shoe with top-tier cushioning, and the "361° x Oee" New Year collaboration series [2] Brand Influence and Professional Positioning - 361 Degrees has expanded its brand influence through strategic partnerships with marathons in cities like Fuzhou, Beijing, and Nanjing, and by hosting the 10KM Speed Series in Nanjing and Xi'an [3] - The company successfully held brand day events, launched new products, and organized the Women's Fitness City Pop-up events in cities such as Suzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu [3] - The brand has also strengthened its professional positioning by becoming the official sportswear provider for the 2025 Asian Winter Games in Harbin and establishing a strategic partnership with Zhengzhou No. 9 High School in football [3] E-commerce Channel Development - The company has deepened its e-commerce channel construction, leveraging the National Day and "Double 11" shopping festivals to enhance brand exposure and product recognition [4] - Key products such as the "Feiran 3.5" and "Feiran 3" running shoes, the "Rain Screen 8th Generation" with FLYTEX waterproof membrane, and the "361° Studio" co-creation series performed exceptionally well during the "Double 11" period [4] Professionalism and Global Strategy - 361 Degrees has emphasized technology as the driving force for its growth, adopting a "technology-first, brand-first" development strategy [5] - The company is increasing its investment in professional sports, aiming to build a resource matrix that includes major sports events, professional teams, elite athletes, and endorsements [5] - With a global strategic vision, the company is working to establish emotional connections with a broader user base [5] Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenues of 10.09 billion RMB, 11.69 billion RMB, and 13.45 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6] - Net profits attributable to the parent company are projected to be 1.11 billion RMB, 1.29 billion RMB, and 1.53 billion RMB for the same periods [6] - The corresponding EPS is expected to be 0.54 RMB, 0.62 RMB, and 0.74 RMB per share, with P/E ratios of 7X, 6X, and 5X respectively [6] Industry and Market Data - The company operates in the non-essential consumer goods sector, specifically in textiles and apparel [7] - As of the report date, the company's total market capitalization on the Hong Kong stock exchange is 8.33 billion HKD, with a total share capital of 2.07 billion shares [7] - The company's net asset value per share is 4.94 HKD, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 27.10% [7]

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (9888 HK/BIDU US) [6] Core Views - Baidu's revenue growth in 4Q24 is expected to face short-term pressure due to a mild macroeconomic environment, AI-driven business transformation, and the exit of the Jiyue business [1] - Baidu Core 4Q24 revenue is projected to decline by 5.1% YoY to RMB 26.08 billion, with non-GAAP operating profit at RMB 4.15 billion, reflecting a 6.6pp YoY decline in non-GAAP operating margin [1] - Key catalysts for future valuation include: 1) AI-driven improvements in search advertising, 2) strong growth in AI cloud revenue, 3) faster-than-expected expansion of the Apollo Go business, and 4) stronger-than-expected shareholder return initiatives [1] Financial Forecasts - Baidu Core 4Q24 advertising revenue is expected to decline by 8.6% YoY to RMB 17.51 billion, driven by reduced ad spending in sectors like real estate, transportation, and healthcare [2] - AI cloud revenue is projected to grow 14.0% YoY to RMB 6.48 billion, driven by increased demand for GPU-related AI cloud services [2] - The exit of the Jiyue business is expected to negatively impact Baidu Core's revenue and adjusted operating profit by RMB 3 billion and RMB 900 million, respectively, in 4Q24 [2] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2024/2025/2026 are revised to RMB 24.6/27.2/30.0 billion, reflecting downward adjustments in iQiyi and Jiyue-related revenue forecasts [3][11] Valuation and Target Price - The SOTP-based target price for Baidu's US shares is adjusted to USD 115.4 (from USD 119.8), and for HK shares to HKD 112.3 (from HKD 116.4) [3][16] - The new target price implies 11.3x and 10.3x 2025/2026E non-GAAP PE, respectively [3] Segment Valuation - Baidu Core advertising business is valued at USD 78.1 per ADS (HKD 76.0 per share), based on 8.0x 2025E PE, reflecting slower-than-expected AI-driven ad revenue growth [16] - Baidu AI Cloud is valued at USD 27.7 per ADS (HKD 27.0 per share), based on 3.0x 2025E PS, reflecting slower-than-expected demand for AI cloud services [16] - iQiyi and other investments are valued at USD 9.6 per ADS (HKD 9.3 per share), with a 30% holding discount applied [16] Key Financial Metrics - Baidu's 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 131.5 billion, a 2.3% YoY decline, with adjusted net profit of RMB 24.6 billion, down 14.3% YoY [5][11] - Non-GAAP operating margin for Baidu Core is expected to decline to 15.9% in 4Q24, down from 22.5% in 4Q23 [14] - Baidu's 2024E adjusted ROE is forecasted at 9.25%, down from 11.86% in 2023 [5] Industry Comparison - Baidu's 2025E PE of 11.3x is below the average of 12.9x for online advertising peers like Alibaba, Tencent, and Google [18] - Baidu AI Cloud's 2025E PS of 3.0x is significantly lower than the average of 7.4x for cloud and AI peers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings with a target price of HKD 5.87 [1][7] Core Views - Tianli International Holdings benefits from clear policy boundaries in private education, stable industry demand, and a competitive landscape [1] - The company has a strong reputation for teaching, highly standardized operational management, and excellent capabilities for regional expansion [1] - It combines growth potential with stable dividend payouts, making it an attractive investment [1] Business Strategy "One Trunk" Business - The company is optimizing its student enrollment structure, aiming to increase the proportion of primary and middle school students to 65% and high school students to 35% by the 2025 academic year [2] - This adjustment is expected to accelerate the full enrollment of self-operated schools and enhance profitability in the core education sector [2] "Multiple Branches" Business - Subsidiary "Qiming Daren" focuses on AI education, with significant results in AI-based college entrance exam preparation, showing strong potential for nationwide expansion [3] - The study tour business has achieved rapid revenue growth through innovative course integration, positioning itself as a leader in the niche market [3] - The competition and foundation strengthening business has gathered top-tier teaching resources, achieving notable results and enhancing brand influence through external collaborations [3] - The托管 business is expanding rapidly, with plans to add 30-50 new school sections by the fall of 2025, further diversifying profit sources [3] Financial Performance and Valuation - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of RMB 771 million, RMB 995 million, and RMB 1.132 billion for FY25/26/27, respectively [5] - Using a DCF valuation method with a WACC of 10.76% and a perpetual growth rate of 1%, the target price is set at HKD 5.87 [5] - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 2.303 billion in 2023 to RMB 5.466 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of 18.67% from 2025 to 2027 [6] - EPS is projected to increase from RMB 0.16 in 2023 to RMB 0.52 in 2027 [6] Shareholder Returns and Capital Planning - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of 30% since its IPO and plans to continue this trend in FY25 [4] - Share buybacks have been actively conducted, reflecting management's confidence in the company's long-term value [4] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio is expected to decline from 21.95x in 2023 to 6.72x in 2027, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [6] - The PB ratio is projected to decrease from 3.58x in 2023 to 1.63x in 2027 [6] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is forecasted to drop from 20.25x in 2023 to 6.83x in 2027 [6]