上 市 公 司 传媒 证 券 研 究 报 告 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 2024 年 09 月 27 日 快手-W (01024) ——内容驱动商业生态繁荣，投入 AI 提升平台效率 报告原因：有新的信息需要补充 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 26 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 47.95 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7086.7 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 65.70/37.55 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 2,078.58 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 3,585.13 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.1064 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -37% -17% 3% 23% HSCEI 快手-W 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.co ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Views - The company has a broad future growth potential due to its three main business segments: development, operation, and service, which work in synergy [4]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 158.04 billion, 153.30 billion, and 149.14 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -12.6%, -3.0%, and -2.7% respectively [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.8, 6.1, and 5.6 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of experience, focusing on residential development, commercial investment, and property management across major cities in China [14]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the Wu family being the largest shareholder [15]. Business Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 180.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in property development revenue [21]. - The operating and service segments showed resilience, with a revenue increase of 5.7% year-on-year, contributing to 13.8% of total revenue [21]. Financial Health - The company maintains a strong financial position, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.25 and a net debt ratio of 56% as of the end of 2023 [24]. - The company has successfully managed its debt structure, with no foreign bonds maturing before the end of 2026 [26]. Commercial Investment - The company has been actively expanding its commercial investment segment, with a focus on high-energy cities, having entered over 30 cities and opened 88 shopping centers by the end of 2023 [30]. - The company plans to open 14 new shopping centers in 2024, with a total expected area of 951,000 square meters [33].

2024 年 9 月 26 日 公司研究 物管基本盘稳健，聚焦主业回笼现金 ——碧桂园服务（6098.HK）跟踪报告 要点 事件：碧桂园服务出售珠海万达 1.49%股权，回笼现金 31.4 亿元。 9 月 25 日，碧桂园服务发布公告，出售珠海万达 1.49%股权（107,945,650 股）， 对价约为人民币 31.4 亿元（股份于 2021 年 7 月购入，初始购买价为 26.8 亿元）， 出售完成后，碧桂园服务仍持有珠海万达 0.31%的股份（22,109,350 股）。 碧桂园服务 2024 年上半年实现收入 210.5 亿元，同比增长 1.5%，毛利 44.5 亿 元，同比减少 13.7%，归母净利润 14.4 亿元，同比减少 38.7%，剔除商誉减值、 收并购带来的客户关系摊销等影响后的核心归母净利润 18.4 亿元，同比减少 31.7%，经营活动产生现金流净额 2.7 亿元，同比下降 87.7%。 点评：项目储备丰富，物管基本盘稳健，现金流有待改善，关注应收款收缴。 1）聚焦核心业务，经营深度调整。2024H1 公司物业管理/非业主增值/三供一 业/社区增值/城市服务/商业运营分别实现收入 12 ...

朝云集团 [Table_StockNameRptType] （6601.HK） 首次覆盖 家居护理基石稳固，宠物线下实体门店服务业 态助力高增长，高股息率保障股东权益 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO, with a target price raised to $7.0, representing a potential upside of 24% [2][5][12]. Core Insights - NIO is expected to achieve sales of 230,000 electric vehicles this year, driven by the delivery of high-margin "7778" models and the introduction of new sub-brands and models [2][3]. - The company anticipates significant growth in total vehicle sales due to the upcoming launch of the L60 model and other new models, which will enhance its product matrix and pricing coverage [2][3]. - NIO's gross margin improved to 12.2% in Q2 2024, exceeding previous expectations, and is projected to reach 15% in Q4 2024 [2][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 49,269 million in 2022 to RMB 133,560 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36% [4][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 10.4% in 2022 to 14.4% in 2026, reflecting ongoing cost optimization [4][10]. - The net loss is projected to decrease from RMB 14,559 million in 2022 to RMB 8,036 million by 2026, indicating a trend towards improved profitability [4][10]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a sales multiple of 1.2x for automotive sales and 3.8x for other sales, leading to a target price of $7.0 for NIO's U.S. shares [3][12]. - The target price corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of 1.4x for 2024 and 0.9x for 2025, suggesting an attractive valuation [2][3]. Sales and Performance Metrics - In Q2 2024, NIO reported revenue of RMB 17,446 million, a 99% year-over-year increase, with a gross profit of RMB 1,689 million, reflecting a gross margin of 9.7% [9][10]. - Vehicle sales reached 57,373 units in Q2 2024, marking a 144% increase compared to the same quarter last year [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leapmotor (09863 HK) [3] Core Views - Leapmotor has significantly improved profitability and increased R&D investment in new models The company achieved positive gross margin for the first time in Q3 2023 at 1 2% and reached 6 7% in Q4 2023 [2] - The company has optimized its product matrix with a dual powertrain strategy (BEV+EREV) and plans to launch 7 new models by 2026 including B-series and D-series vehicles [2] - Leapmotor's global expansion strategy with Stellantis is expected to drive overseas growth with plans to enter European Middle Eastern and African markets starting September 2024 [2][4] Financial Performance - In H1 2024 Leapmotor achieved revenue of 8 845 billion yuan a 52% YoY increase with a net loss of 2 212 billion yuan mainly due to increased R&D expenses for new models and smart driving technology [2] - The company's gross margin improved to 1 13% in H1 2024 compared to negative margins in previous years [2] - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from 31 796 billion yuan in 2024 to 75 573 billion yuan in 2026 with gross margins expected to reach 13% by 2026 [4][7] Product Strategy - Leapmotor currently offers 5 models priced between 100 000-200 000 yuan with C-series models accounting for 72% of deliveries in H1 2024 [2][18] - The company plans to launch 3 B-series models priced at 100 000-150 000 yuan by 2025 and 3 D-series models around 200 000 yuan by 2026 [2][16] - Leapmotor's C16 model a 6-seat SUV priced under 200 000 yuan achieved over 10 000 orders in its first month of launch [59] Technology and R&D - Leapmotor has developed six core technology platforms including vehicle architecture electronic electrical architecture intelligent powertrain intelligent battery intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving [25] - The company's self-developed CTC 2 0 battery technology achieves a volume utilization rate of 79% and reduces weight by 15% compared to traditional designs [32] - Leapmotor's Leapmotor OS 3 0 intelligent cockpit system is powered by the Qualcomm Snapdragon 8295 chip offering 30TOPS of AI computing power [40] Overseas Expansion - Leapmotor International a joint venture with Stellantis plans to launch C10 and T03 models in 9 European countries starting September 2024 [60] - The company aims to establish 200 sales outlets by the end of 2024 and expand to 500 outlets by 2026 [61] - Overseas sales are projected to grow from 10 000 units in 2024 to 120 000 units in 2026 [7] Market Position - Leapmotor is positioned as a technology-driven new energy vehicle manufacturer with full-stack self-research capabilities [4] - The company's "China market + overseas market + Tier 1" strategy aims to expand from vehicle manufacturing to component supply leveraging its cost advantages and technological capabilities [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 8.43 HKD [1]. Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue growth, with its BaaS (Business as a Service) business performing particularly well. In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.321 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [3]. - The gross margin remains high at 73.19%, reflecting a focus on AI technology research and development [3]. - The company has successfully integrated AI applications with its products, enhancing performance and reducing response times significantly [3]. - The financial forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with expected revenues of 29.55 billion CNY, 32.88 billion CNY, and 36.93 billion CNY respectively, and net profits of 3.05 billion CNY, 3.98 billion CNY, and 4.78 billion CNY [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2022A: 2,062 - 2023A: 2,681 - 2024E: 2,955 - 2025E: 3,288 - 2026E: 3,693 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 26% - 2023A: 30% - 2024E: 10% - 2025E: 11% - 2026E: 12% [1]. - Net Profit (in million CNY): - 2022A: 240 - 2023A: 340 - 2024E: 305 - 2025E: 398 - 2026E: 478 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 107% - 2023A: 42% - 2024E: -10% - 2025E: 31% - 2026E: 20% [1]. - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 15.6, 11.0, 12.3, 9.4, and 7.8 for the years 2023 to 2026 respectively [1].

%% %% 港股研究丨公司深度丨华润建材科技（1313.HK） [Table_Title] 华南水泥翘楚，坐拥反转弹性 丨证券研究报告丨 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | 报告要点 | | | [Table_Summary] 华南区域当前受房地产投资环境影响，水泥需求阶段性承压，但是中周期来看，大湾区建设提 供中期建设动能。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8]. Core Views - CGN Mining is positioned as a leading player in the uranium sector, benefiting from the recovery of nuclear power and the tightening supply-demand dynamics in the uranium market [2][3]. - The company is expected to leverage its strong backing from CGN Group, which holds a significant share of the Chinese nuclear power market, to secure stable and growing demand for natural uranium [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - CGN Mining is the only overseas uranium resource development platform under CGN Group, the largest nuclear power group in China [16]. - The company has a clear focus on uranium resource development and trade, having established a dual-driven business model of "trade + resources" [17][19]. Nuclear Power Recovery and Uranium Demand - The global nuclear power capacity is projected to grow from approximately 396 GW to 524 GW by 2030, leading to an increase in uranium demand by 22,506 tons per year [3][37]. - The report highlights a stable growth in demand for natural uranium driven by the recovery of the nuclear power sector, which has been revitalized since 2019 [28][29]. Supply Dynamics - The report notes a significant supply gap in the uranium market due to a decade of low exploration and production following the Fukushima disaster, leading to a reliance on secondary supply sources [4][40]. - The primary supply of uranium is expected to remain constrained, with the report indicating that the market is entering a long-term bullish phase for uranium prices [4][28]. Competitive Advantages - CGN Mining benefits from its strong relationship with CGN Group, which accounts for 53% of the Chinese nuclear power market, ensuring a reliable demand for uranium [5][57]. - The company holds approximately 39,000 tons of uranium resources, with a cost structure that positions it favorably in the global market, maintaining production costs between $20-$30 per pound U3O8 [6][65]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The report forecasts CGN Mining's revenue to reach HKD 105.35 billion, HKD 130.37 billion, and HKD 142.41 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 5.10 billion, HKD 7.29 billion, and HKD 10.30 billion [7][76]. - A target price of HKD 1.92 per share is set based on a 20x PE valuation for 2025, indicating a potential upside of approximately 29% from the current price [11][76].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 5.98 HKD per share, compared to the current price of 3.52 HKD [2][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% to 4.98 billion RMB, primarily due to the impact of two years of medical insurance settlement differences and a high base from the first half of 2023. However, net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.1% to 434 million RMB [6][12]. - The hospital business revenue also saw a slight decline, with outpatient and inpatient visits increasing, but average revenue per visit decreased. The medical business revenue for the hospitals was 4.60 billion RMB, down 3.0% year-on-year. Excluding the impact of medical insurance settlement differences and the closure of Huaiyin Hospital, revenue remained stable [6][12]. - The company is expected to continue its cost reduction and efficiency improvement strategies, which are anticipated to mitigate the impact of medical insurance settlement differences. For 2024, the company forecasts a stable growth in internal performance, with net profit expected to increase by 8.6% compared to the adjusted figure from 2023 [6][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved an EBITDA of 970 million RMB, remaining stable year-on-year. The proportion of drug and consumable costs in revenue decreased by 0.6 percentage points, helping to offset the impact of medical insurance settlement differences [6][12]. - The forecast for 2024 indicates a slight decline in hospital business revenue, with expectations of a 4-5% growth in 2025-2026 as the impact of medical insurance settlement differences diminishes [12][13]. Hospital Operations - The company operates a total of 127 medical institutions, including 13 tertiary hospitals and 23 secondary hospitals, with a total of 20,845 operational beds as of June 30, 2024. The company is focusing on enhancing the quality and efficiency of its operations through centralized procurement and digitalization [6][12]. - The outpatient revenue was 1.81 billion RMB, up 1.4% year-on-year, while inpatient revenue was 2.70 billion RMB, down 6.1%. The average revenue per outpatient visit decreased by 2.0%, and for inpatient visits, it decreased by 8.8% [6][12]. Profitability and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain a profit margin improvement trend, with net profit projected to grow by approximately 7% in 2025-2026. The reference valuation based on comparable companies suggests a PE ratio of 10 times for 2024, leading to a reasonable value of 5.98 HKD per share [12][13].