2 月销售量价齐升，优质资产率先修复 ——华润置地点评报告 事件 2025 年 3 月 13 日，华润置地发布 2025 年 2 月经营数据情况。 投资要点 ❑ 销售额同比高增，印证核心地段核心资产价格率先修复 2025 年 1-2 月，公司累计销售额 251.0 亿元，同比增长 21.8%；销售面积 107.3 万平方米，同比增长 8.7%；销售均价 23392 元/平，同比上涨 12%，与 2024 年销售均价相比上涨 1.5%。2 月单月来看，公司销售额 135 亿元，同比增 长 46.9%；销售面积 58.5 万平，同比增长 28.1%；销售均价 23077 元/平，同 比增长 14.6%。2025 年 1-2 月公司全口径销售金额位列克而瑞排行榜第 3 位， 与 2024 年相比排名保持稳定，公司销售金额同比增幅亮眼，显著优于百强房企 平均表现（百强 2 月增幅 1.2%，1-2 月增幅-1.2%），彰显了公司城市深耕的优 势，我们认为在市场企稳修复期的，公司的销售弹性更加值得关注。 ❑ 经常性收入稳健增长，2 月单月增幅扩大 2025 年 1-2 月公司经常性业务收入 83.9 亿元，同比增长 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q4 performance met expectations with a delivery of 159,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.8% [1] - The revenue for Q4 was 44.27 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year and 3.3% quarter-on-quarter, with the automotive business contributing 42.64 billion yuan [1] - The company expects a delivery of 88,000 to 93,000 units in Q1 2025, which represents a year-on-year increase of 9.5% to 15.7% [3] - The company is facing short-term pressure in 2025 due to increased competition in the extended-range vehicle segment, particularly from the AITO M8 model [3] - The company has strong product development capabilities and strategic management, which are expected to support long-term growth despite short-term challenges [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Sales - Q4 sales reached 159,000 units, with a breakdown of models sold: L6 (78,000), L7 (36,000), L8 (21,000), L9 (20,000), and M (3,000) [1] - The average selling price (ASP) for Q4 was 269,000 yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year [1] - For the full year 2024, total sales were 500,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%, with total revenue of 144.46 billion yuan, up 16.6% year-on-year [1] Costs and Expenses - R&D and SGA expenses for Q4 were 2.41 billion and 3.08 billion yuan, respectively, with a decreasing expense ratio [1] - The gross margin for Q3 was 20.3%, with a slight decline attributed to one-time settlements with suppliers [2] Profitability - Non-GAAP net profit for Q4 was 4.04 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 9.1% [2] - The company expects net profits of 12.49 billion, 17.32 billion, and 24.58 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.2, 13.8, and 9.8 [4] Market Outlook - The company is entering a high-pressure period for new electric vehicle launches in 2025-2026, with a focus on the upcoming i8 and i6 models [4] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with market demand not meeting expectations [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (1164 HK) is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 2.00 [7][8]. Core Views - The company has issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit of HKD 317 to 367 million for 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 26% to 35%. This is primarily due to the accrual of dividend withholding tax and losses from the termination of operations related to the Fission acquisition. However, the tax-adjusted operating profit is expected to grow by 41% to 50%, reaching HKD 790 to 840 million, driven by rising uranium prices [1][2]. - The report expresses optimism regarding the recovery of uranium prices, supported by policies promoting nuclear energy in the US and Europe, which are expected to create a supply-demand gap that will drive prices upward in the medium to long term [1][3]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 has been revised down by 35% to HKD 0.05 per share, while the EPS for 2025 and 2026 remains at HKD 0.10 and HKD 0.14 respectively. The target price is set at HKD 2.00, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20x for 2025 [4][12]. Revenue and Profitability - The projected revenue for 2024 is HKD 9,919 million, with a year-on-year growth of 34.72%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be HKD 364.07 million, reflecting a decrease of 26.76% compared to 2023. The company anticipates a recovery in profitability with a projected net profit of HKD 764.89 million in 2025 [6][17]. Uranium Market Outlook - The spot price of uranium is expected to stabilize, having dropped from USD 76 to USD 65 per pound, while long-term contract prices have increased to USD 81 per pound, indicating ongoing supply-demand tensions in the industry. Key drivers for future uranium demand include regulatory changes in the US and potential shifts in Germany's nuclear policy [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [5][21]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant growth over the past 15 years, with total sales revenue increasing by 300 times and tax contributions growing by 340 times since its restructuring in 2009 [2]. - The company aims to become a world-class liquor enterprise in the next 50 years, leveraging its strong brand heritage and innovative product offerings [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on dual-channel marketing, targeting both traditional and emerging markets to enhance brand influence among high-net-worth individuals [3]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 5,856 million yuan in 2022 to 9,254 million yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.8% [1]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to fluctuate, with a peak of 2,327 million yuan in 2023, followed by a decline to 1,592 million yuan in 2024, before recovering to 2,414 million yuan by 2026 [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.30 yuan in 2022 to 0.71 yuan in 2026, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [1]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 24.9 in 2022 to 10.6 by 2026, indicating improved valuation attractiveness [1]. Industry Insights - The report notes a turning point in the liquor industry, particularly in the sauce-flavored liquor segment, with a projected reduction in overall production capacity by approximately 100,000 tons in the upcoming production seasons [4][9]. - Despite the overall adjustment in the liquor market, the sauce-flavored liquor segment is expected to continue growing, capturing a larger market share [9][10].

证券研究报告 友邦保险 (1299 HK) 版 服 酒 2024: NBV 稳健增长,回购小幅延续 | 华泰研究 | | --- | | 2025 年 3 月 14 日 中国香港 | 友邦保险 2024年EPS USD0.62，高于我们的预测 USD0.56, 主要因投资 收益超预期:24年友邦新业务价值同比提升 18%(不变汇率),表现稳定; 每股营运利润同比提升 12%（不变汇率），表现较好。维持"买入"。 假设调整影响大陆市场 NBV 增速 2024 年友邦新业务价值(NBV)同比提升 18%(不变汇率,下同),主要 由大中华市场的高速增长带动。2024年中国香港市场 NBV 同比增长 23%， 其中内地访客和本地居民分别+22%/24%,在高基数下展现出增长韧性。中 国大陆市场 NBV 同比增长 20%,公司下调了大陆市场长期利率假设,在不 调整基数的情况下 4Q24 大陆市场 NBV 下滑 9%。考虑到友邦经营地域持 续扩张,我们看好友邦中国未来的增长潜力。此外,东南亚市场也保持稳健 增长,2024 年友邦泰国/新加坡/马来西亚 NBV 分别同比增长 15%/15%/10%。我们预计 2025年 N ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [4] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 10.07 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.6%, with a net profit of 1.15 billion RMB, also up by 19.5% [1] - The gross margin is reported at 41.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, while the net profit margin remains stable at 11.4% [1] - The company has established a leading position in children's sportswear, leveraging professional layouts and product innovations to achieve resilient growth [2] - The offline retail performance is strong, with a high double-digit growth in Q1 and a steady 10% growth in subsequent quarters [1][2] - E-commerce sales reached 2.61 billion RMB, marking a 12.2% increase, with online exclusive products accounting for 83.6% of total retail [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.07 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.15 billion RMB, both reflecting a growth of approximately 19.6% and 19.5% respectively [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected at 0.556 RMB, with a dividend payout of 0.265 HKD, representing a payout ratio of 45% [1] Product and Market Development - The children's segment generated 2.34 billion RMB, accounting for 23.2% of total revenue, with children's footwear and apparel growing by 17.4% and 22.6% respectively [2] - The company has expanded its product line to cater to the 16-year-old demographic and has launched a children's racing series to meet market demands [2] Channel Optimization - The company operates 5,750 stores with an average size of 149 square meters, focusing on expanding in lower-tier cities [3] - The introduction of the 361º Super Store format aims to enhance customer experience and capture new market opportunities [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (01299.HK) [8] Core Insights - AIA Group reported a strong performance with a 18% year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) and announced a new share buyback plan of $1.6 billion [8] - The company achieved a net profit of $6.84 billion, reflecting an 84% year-on-year growth, with a significant increase of 133% in the second half of the year [8] - The embedded value reached $69 billion, up 4% year-on-year, with an operating return on embedded value increasing by 2.0 percentage points to 14.9% [8] - The expected final dividend per share is 130.98 Hong Kong cents, a 10% increase compared to the previous year [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total insurance revenue for 2023 was $17.514 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.32% [8] - After-tax operating profit for 2023 was $6.213 billion, showing a decline of 3.24% year-on-year [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was $0.35, with projections for 2024 at $0.64 [8] New Business Value (NBV) - The annualized new premium (ANP) for 2023 was $8.61 billion, up 14% year-on-year [8] - The total NBV for the year was $4.71 billion, reflecting an 18% increase [8] - The NBV margin improved by 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [8] Regional Performance - NBV in Hong Kong increased by 23% to $1.76 billion, accounting for 34.8% of the total [8] - NBV in mainland China reached $1.22 billion, up 20% year-on-year [8] - The "New Malaysia Thailand" region also showed positive growth in NBV, with increases of 15%, 10%, and 15% respectively [8] Investment Strategy - The company has shifted its investment strategy, reducing fixed income allocation to 71.1% while increasing equity allocation to 22.3% [8] - The net investment yield for the year was 4.0%, with a total investment return of 4.9% [8] Capital Management - AIA Group has completed its previous $12 billion share buyback program and plans to implement a new $1.6 billion buyback plan within 2025 [8] - The current stock price corresponds to 1.12 times the estimated price-to-embedded value (PEV) for 2025, indicating a low valuation with a high margin of safety [8]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·保险(HS) 友邦保险（01299.HK） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 03 月 15 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 -25% -18% -11% -4% 3% 10% 17% 24% 31% 38% 45% 2024/3/15 2024/7/14 2024/11/12 2025/3/13 友邦保险 恒生指数 市场数据 | 收盘价(港元) | 61.25 | | --- | --- | | 一年最低/最高价 | 45.25/74.60 | | 市净率(倍) | 16.39 | | 港股流通市值(百万港 | 655,019.43 | | 元) | | 2024 年年报点评：NBV 表现出色同比+18%， 加推 16 亿美元股份回购计划 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保险 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [3][14]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 6.646 billion RMB, a decline of 15.8% year-on-year, primarily due to the slowdown in the telecommunications industry and cost-cutting measures by operator clients [1]. - Traditional business revenue, particularly from BSS, is under pressure, with a forecasted revenue of 4.046 billion RMB for 2024, down 18.9% year-on-year [1]. - New business segments (OSS, vertical industries, and smart operations) generated 2.599 billion RMB in revenue, a decrease of 10.3%, but their contribution to total revenue increased by 2.4 percentage points to 39.1% [1]. - The company is focusing on expanding its AI model delivery business, which is expected to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 200-300 million RMB in 2025 [2]. - The company plans to replicate its domestic BSS and OSS experiences in overseas markets, engaging with operators in Hong Kong and the Philippines [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit of 2.484 billion RMB, a decrease of 16.5%, resulting in a gross margin of 37.4% [1]. - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be 545 million RMB, with a net profit margin of 7.8% [1]. - The company anticipates a recovery in net profit to 636 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 16.8% [3]. Revenue Projections - Revenue for 2025 is estimated to reach 7.191 billion RMB, representing an 8.2% increase from 2024 [4]. - The company expects a double-digit growth in OSS business revenue in 2025, driven by trends in operator consolidation and resource integration [1][2]. Dividend Policy - The company has announced a total dividend of 0.412 HKD per share for 2024, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.18 per share [5]. Core Insights - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its core business operations, aiming for high-quality and efficient growth [1][2]. - The deployment of the proprietary "Li Hong AI System" is expected to improve operational efficiency and customer service customization [2]. - The company has shown strong performance in overseas markets, with significant revenue growth, particularly in the overseas segment [3]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of HKD 944.01 million for FY2022, with projected revenues of HKD 1,368.11 million for FY2024 and HKD 2,049.96 million for FY2026, reflecting a growth rate of 15.3% in FY2022 and an expected 23.0% in FY2026 [4][10]. - The net profit for FY2022 was HKD 69.40 million, with projections of HKD 89.05 million for FY2024 and HKD 162.88 million for FY2026, indicating a growth rate of 16.9% in FY2022 and an expected 35.5% in FY2026 [4][10]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to be around 42.6% by FY2026, with a net profit margin of 7.9% [4][10]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 10.90 in FY2022 to 4.76 in FY2026, indicating increasing earnings relative to the stock price [4][10]. Business Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 340 million in the Greater China region for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, while overseas revenue reached HKD 270 million, a significant increase of 47.2% [3]. - The overseas business now accounts for 47% of total revenue, highlighting the company's successful expansion strategy [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand recognition in overseas markets, particularly in Singapore, where it has seen rapid growth [3].