Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has a strong foundation built over 20 years, with a new strategic plan aimed at achieving a "new Mengniu" under the leadership of the new president [1] - The company is well-positioned in the dairy industry with a solid supply chain, marketing strategies, and a focus on product innovation [1] - Short-term benefits are expected from the liquid milk segment, while long-term growth will focus on structural upgrades and international expansion [1] Summary by Sections 1. Company Development - Established in 1999 and listed in 2004, the company has undergone several management changes and strategic evolutions, with a focus on traditional strengths and international innovation [1][26] - The company has diversified its product offerings across various categories, including liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, and cheese [1][26] 2. Competitive Position - The company has strengthened its control over high-quality milk sources through strategic partnerships and acquisitions, maintaining a significant market share in fresh milk [1][39] - Marketing efforts have been enhanced through a dual-brand strategy, leading to a strong brand presence in the industry [1] 3. Liquid Milk Growth - The company is expected to benefit from an upward cycle in the dairy price and a potential turning point in profitability due to improved supply-demand dynamics [1] - Long-term focus includes upgrading the product structure, particularly in high-end milk products and yogurt [1] 4. Strategic Layout and International Expansion - The company is expanding into cheese and ice cream markets, with significant growth potential in Southeast Asia through acquisitions [1][39] - The international strategy is supported by strong partnerships and acquisitions that enhance the company's competitive edge [1] 5. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to increase its dividend payout and share buyback programs, enhancing shareholder returns [1] - The report anticipates improved cash flow and operational efficiency, leading to a sustainable increase in shareholder value [1] 6. Earnings Forecast and Investment Advice - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 927.4 billion, 955.4 billion, and 980.6 billion respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 43 billion, 48.4 billion, and 53.2 billion [1] - The company is expected to maintain a lower P/E ratio compared to peers, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on EDA Group Holdings with a "BUY" rating, setting a target price of HK$3.57 per share, indicating a potential upside of 53.2% from the current price of HK$2.33 [2]. Core Insights - EDA Group is positioned as a leading provider of end-to-end supply chain solutions for B2C export e-commerce, leveraging its proprietary EDA Cloud platform to enhance operational efficiency and customer connectivity [13][25]. - The B2C export e-commerce supply chain solutions market is projected to grow significantly, with a market size of RMB402.4 billion in 2022 and an expected CAGR of 9.1% from 2022 to 2027, driven by the increasing adoption of pre-sale stocking models [8][39]. - EDA's technology capabilities and asset-light model, which includes self-operated and partnered warehouses, provide a competitive edge, allowing for scalable growth and improved profitability [10][24]. Company Overview - EDA Group Holdings is a comprehensive supply chain solutions provider for e-commerce vendors, offering services that include cross-border logistics, overseas warehousing, and fulfillment delivery, all integrated into the EDA Cloud platform [13]. - The company primarily utilizes a pre-sale stocking model, which allows e-commerce vendors to store products in overseas warehouses, facilitating faster and more reliable delivery to end consumers [34][39]. Financial Performance - EDA's revenue for FY22 was RMB709 million, with a projected revenue growth of 70.6% to RMB1,209 million in FY23, and further growth to RMB2,776 million by FY26, reflecting a CAGR of 31.9% [4]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow from RMB36.8 million in FY23 to RMB222.6 million by FY26, indicating a CAGR of 34.3% [4]. Market Analysis - The B2C export e-commerce market in China has seen rapid growth, with a GMV of RMB3.2 trillion in 2022, and is expected to reach RMB6.0 trillion by 2027, driven by improved payment systems and increased online shopping habits [30]. - The supply chain solutions market is fragmented, with over 4,000 players, and EDA ranks seventh among providers utilizing the pre-sale stocking model, holding a market share of approximately 0.4% [9]. Competitive Advantages - EDA Cloud platform serves as a key competitive advantage, providing a seamless supply chain experience and enabling efficient resource allocation among logistics and supply chain service providers [10][25]. - The company has established long-term relationships with high-quality customers, with an average business relationship duration of four years with its five largest customers, enhancing customer retention and satisfaction [12][26]. Growth Catalysts - Key growth catalysts for EDA include the mitigation of geopolitical risks, expansion of partnerships with leading e-commerce platforms, and stronger-than-expected earnings growth [8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on EDA Group with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HK$3.57, representing a 53.2% upside from the current price of HK$2.33 [1]. Core Insights - EDA Group is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth of the B2C export e-commerce market, with a projected revenue CAGR of 31.9% from 2023 to 2026 and an adjusted net profit CAGR of 34.3% [1][2]. - The company ranks seventh among B2C export e-commerce supply chain solution providers in mainland China, with a market share of approximately 0.4% as of 2022 [1][6]. - EDA's cloud platform is a key competitive advantage, enhancing operational efficiency and enabling seamless integration of logistics and supply chain services [1][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - EDA Group provides end-to-end supply chain solutions for e-commerce vendors, integrating cross-border logistics, overseas warehousing, and fulfillment services into its proprietary EDA Cloud platform [10][15]. Market Analysis - The B2C export e-commerce supply chain solutions market experienced a CAGR of 28.8% from 2017 to 2022, reaching a market size of RMB 402.4 billion in 2022, with expectations to grow to RMB 621.3 billion by 2027 [5][27]. - The market is characterized by a shift towards pre-sale inventory models, which are expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.5% from 2022 to 2027, driven by improved shopping experiences and faster delivery times [5][27]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for EDA indicate growth from RMB 709 million in FY22 to RMB 2,776 million by FY26, with a significant increase in adjusted net profit from RMB 36.8 million in FY22 to RMB 222.6 million by FY26 [2][4]. Competitive Advantages - EDA's cloud platform is highlighted as a critical asset, facilitating efficient connections between logistics providers and B2C e-commerce platforms, thus improving operational efficiency [7][20]. - The company maintains long-term strategic partnerships with major clients, enhancing its ability to deliver differentiated value and ensuring stable revenue streams [8][22]. Customer Base - EDA has served over 850 clients, with a growing number of core customers contributing significantly to its revenue, indicating a robust and expanding customer base [8][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has a strong foundation built over 20 years, with a new strategic plan aimed at achieving a "new Mengniu" under the leadership of the new CEO [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in the dairy industry, with a solid supply chain and marketing strategy that enhances its competitive edge [1] - Short-term benefits are expected from the liquid milk segment, while long-term focus is on structural upgrades and diversification into multiple product categories [1] Summary by Sections 1. Company Development - Established in 1999 and listed in 2004, the company has undergone five management changes, with the latest CEO taking office in March 2024 [1][26] - The company aims to leverage its traditional strengths while expanding internationally and innovating [1] 2. Competitive Position - The company has strengthened its control over high-quality milk sources through strategic partnerships and acquisitions, maintaining a significant market share in fresh milk [1] - The marketing strategy includes a dual-brand framework that enhances brand power and market presence [1] 3. Liquid Milk Growth - Short-term performance is expected to improve as the industry moves towards supply-demand balance by 2025, with the company poised to benefit from this shift [1] - Long-term growth is anticipated through upgrades in high-end products and expansion in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt segments [1] 4. Diversification and Internationalization - The company is expanding into cheese and ice cream markets, with significant potential in Southeast Asia through recent acquisitions [1] - The strategic focus on multiple product categories is expected to enhance overall growth and market presence [1] 5. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to increase its dividend payout and has initiated a share buyback program, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [1] - The report forecasts a steady improvement in cash flow and operational efficiency, supporting the anticipated increase in dividends [1] 6. Earnings Forecast and Investment Advice - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at 927.4 billion, 955.4 billion, and 980.6 billion respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 43 billion, 48.4 billion, and 53.2 billion [1] - The company is expected to maintain a lower P/E ratio compared to peers, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 80.00, indicating a potential upside of 59.8% from the current price of HKD 50.05 [1][4]. Core Insights - The core education business remains robust, with a revenue of USD 1.44 billion for Q1 FY2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.5%. Excluding Dongfang Zhenxuan, revenue grew by 33.5% [1]. - Adjusted operating profit reached USD 300 million, a 23% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted operating margin of 21% [1]. - The company is expected to maintain a revenue growth of 30% for the fiscal year 2025, with an operating profit margin of 13% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, revenue is projected to reach USD 5.235 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 21.4% [3]. - Net profit is expected to be USD 563 million, with an EPS of USD 3.40, reflecting a growth of 49% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 1.9 for FY2025, indicating attractive valuation [3]. Business Segments - Traditional business segments such as study abroad preparation and consulting showed year-on-year revenue growth of 18.8% and 20.7% respectively, contributing approximately 50% to total revenue [1]. - New business segments experienced a 50% year-on-year revenue increase, contributing about 24% to total revenue [1]. - The number of teaching points increased to 1,089 as of August 31, 2024, with a management target of 20-25% expansion for FY2025 [1]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that New Oriental remains a leading player in the education training industry, with opportunities to adjust its product structure in response to market demand [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from scale effects due to last year's expansion of teaching points, which will enhance profitability [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Pop Mart International (9992 HK) with a current price of HK$75.20 and a target price of HK$80.90 [2][9]. Core Insights - Pop Mart's third-quarter performance significantly exceeded expectations, with revenue growth of 120%-125% year-on-year, driven by a 55%-60% increase in mainland China and a remarkable 440%-445% growth in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets [8][12]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, bolstered by enhanced IP operations and new product launches, alongside strong overseas demand contributing to domestic sales [8][12]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at RMB 12.42 billion, RMB 16.21 billion, and RMB 19.97 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 2.85 billion, RMB 3.88 billion, and RMB 4.95 billion [9][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: - **2024E**: Revenue of RMB 12,420 million (+97% YoY), Net profit of RMB 2,851 million (+139% YoY) [5][9]. - **2025E**: Revenue of RMB 16,206 million (+30% YoY), Net profit of RMB 3,879 million (+36% YoY) [5][9]. - **2026E**: Revenue of RMB 19,966 million (+23% YoY), Net profit of RMB 4,951 million (+28% YoY) [5][9]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 61.3% in 2023 to 67.1% by 2026, indicating strong operational efficiency [5][11]. Market Performance - The stock has shown impressive absolute returns of 51.3% over the past month, 87.1% over three months, and 238.0% over the past year, significantly outperforming the MSCI China index [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education & Technology Group (09901) [1][3] Core Insights - The company reported a strong revenue growth of 30.5% year-on-year for Q1 FY25, reaching USD 1.435 billion, driven primarily by its non-academic training business [2][3] - Non-GAAP net profit for the same period was USD 265 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.8% [2][3] - The company’s new business segment, which includes non-academic training, saw a revenue increase of 50% year-on-year, contributing USD 350 million [2][3] - The number of users for learning machines grew by 78.5% year-on-year, reaching 323,000 [2][3] - The total number of teaching points increased by 37.3% year-on-year to 1,089, indicating a robust demand for training services [2][3] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY25 are estimated at USD 5.438 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 43.89% [3][5] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to be USD 493 million for FY25, with a growth rate of 47.20% [3][5] - The report anticipates continued growth in the non-academic training sector, with a projected training participant count of 3.82 million for FY25, compared to 12 million prior to the "double reduction" policy [2][3] - The target price is set at USD 109.5, indicating a potential upside of 63.1% from the current price [3][5] Key Performance Indicators - The report highlights a projected EPS of USD 2.98 for FY25, increasing to USD 5.38 by FY27 [3][8] - The net asset return rate is expected to rise from 6.17% in FY23 to 14.22% in FY27 [3][8] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 52.98% in FY25 to 57.29% in FY27 [3][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (0388.HK) with a target price of HKD 377.3, compared to the current price of HKD 314.8 [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited achieved a revenue of HKD 15.993 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 9.270 billion, up 0.1% year-on-year [1]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of increased market activity on trading and settlement fees, which have risen as a proportion of total revenue [1]. - The report notes that the trading fees for the cash segment reached HKD 2.196 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, indicating a recovery in trading activity [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of HKD 5.372 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, and a net profit of HKD 3.145 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year [1]. - The average daily trading value of stock products on the exchange increased by 5% year-on-year to HKD 1,027 billion for the first three quarters, with a significant jump of 23% in Q3 [1]. Revenue Structure - The revenue structure shows that trading and transaction system usage fees, along with settlement and clearing fees, accounted for 56.6% of total revenue, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Listing fees from the exchange accounted for 6.8% of total revenue, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while investment income netted 23.3% of total revenue, a decline of 1.5 percentage points [1]. Market Activity - The report indicates that the cash segment's trading fees have shown signs of recovery, with the average daily trading value in Q3 reaching HKD 1,072 billion, marking a significant increase [1]. - The report also highlights the positive effects of favorable policies from mainland China, which have boosted trading activity and the performance of the Hang Seng Index [1]. Investment Outlook - The report projects an increase in earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026, estimating EPS at HKD 9.84, HKD 10.78, and HKD 11.78 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 32, 29, and 27 times [1]. - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to benefit from improved market conditions and increased trading activity, particularly as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may enhance market liquidity [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 6.58 [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in its main brand, with a year-on-year revenue increase in the third quarter of 2024, although the growth rate has slowed due to pressure on customer traffic and attachment rates [1]. - The subsidiary Saucony showed a strong performance with a 50% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2024, continuing its robust growth trajectory [1]. - The ongoing divestiture of KP Global is progressing well, which is expected to reduce losses and enhance profitability, allowing the company to focus on its core brands [1][2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The main brand's revenue growth was driven by e-commerce and children's segments, with online and children's businesses achieving high double-digit and low double-digit growth, respectively [1]. - The retail discount for the main brand was approximately 25%, and the inventory turnover ratio was about four months, indicating stable operational levels [1]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit growth of 25.3% in 2024, reaching RMB 1.291 billion, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.49 [2][3]. - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are RMB 15.085 billion, RMB 15.621 billion, and RMB 17.309 billion, respectively, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [3][9]. Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 10.7x for 2025, with a target price adjustment of 4.6% to HKD 6.58 based on its market position and operational stability [2][6]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in the industry is 11.6x, indicating a favorable valuation for the company [2][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 29.70 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported strong earnings in Q3, with revenue increasing by 19.2% year-on-year to USD 2.11 billion, and a significant rise in container volume and freight rates [1][2]. - The outlook for Q4 remains positive, driven by seasonal demand in Southeast Asia, with expectations for further increases in both volume and freight rates [1][2]. - The report highlights a structural shift in the industry, with more trade and supply chain activities moving to the Asian region, particularly Southeast Asia, due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of USD 2.11 billion, with a 19.2% year-on-year growth, and a container volume of 2.55 million TEU, up 11.1% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue reached USD 810 million, reflecting a 56.6% quarter-on-quarter increase, while the average freight rate rose to USD 809 per TEU, a 44.1% increase from the previous quarter [1][2]. Market Trends - The shipping market has seen a significant increase in freight rates, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) and Southeast Asia Freight Index (SEAFI) rising by 212% and 317% year-on-year respectively in Q3 [2]. - The report anticipates continued growth in freight rates and volumes in Q4 due to the traditional peak season in Southeast Asia [2]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing transformation in the industry, with a shift of low-end manufacturing from China to Southeast Asia, enhancing regional supply chain collaboration and increasing trade volumes [3]. - It is projected that the supply of small to medium-sized vessels will grow at a slower pace than demand, leading to tighter supply conditions in the coming years [3]. Earnings Forecast - The net profit forecast for 2024 has been raised by 31% to USD 1.02 billion, with target prices adjusted to HKD 29.70 based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.1x for 2024 [4]. - Long-term profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have also been increased by 8% and 15% respectively, reflecting positive market conditions and company performance [4].