Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Gushengtang, with a target price of HKD 67.35 per share, reflecting a strong growth outlook [2][5]. Core Insights - The number of medical visits in Q1 2025 increased by 12.7% year-on-year, reaching approximately 1.21 million, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [3][10]. - The company is expected to see significant performance contributions in 2025 from mergers and acquisitions (M&A), artificial intelligence (AI), and in-hospital preparations [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 3.79 billion and RMB 4.63 billion, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 25.3% and 22.2% [5][11]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted at RMB 480 million for 2025 and RMB 580 million for 2026, with growth rates of 20.6% and 21.0% [5][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at 30.1% across the forecast period [5]. Growth Drivers - The company has signed equity transfer agreements with four domestic targets in Q1 2025, with an average valuation of 0.8-1x PS, indicating attractive acquisition opportunities [4][13]. - An AI initiative to launch digital twins of renowned TCM doctors is expected to contribute RMB 30 million in annual performance starting in July 2025 [4][13]. - Plans to introduce 10 new in-hospital preparations in 2025 are anticipated to generate over RMB 50 million in revenue [4][13]. Market Position - Gushengtang is recognized as a leading domestic chain in traditional Chinese medical services, benefiting from strong brand power and resilient performance [5][11]. - The company has a market capitalization of HKD 7.95 billion (approximately USD 1.02 billion) and a free float of 62% [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (06186.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading domestic infant formula producer, with a significant turnaround in performance expected in 2024 due to channel reforms and a focus on high-end products [8]. - The company has a strong cash position and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 76% in 2024, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns [8]. - The infant formula industry is anticipated to rebound, driven by a recovery in birth rates and a sustained trend towards premiumization [8]. Summary by Sections 1. High Dividend and Performance Turnaround - China Feihe is one of the earliest milk powder companies in China, focusing on infant formula and maintaining a leading market share [14]. - The company has experienced a significant decline in performance from 2021 to 2023 but is expected to show improvements in 2024, with revenue and net profit projected to grow by 6.2% and 5.3% respectively [20][19]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio has increased from 40.2% in 2019 to 76% in 2024, indicating a strong focus on returning value to shareholders [32]. 2. Strategic Focus on Premium Products and Channel Management - The company has shifted its focus to high-end products, with the ultra-premium "Xing Fei Fan" series accounting for 75% of its infant formula revenue in 2024, up from 22% in 2016 [8][36]. - Marketing strategies include high-profile promotions and enhanced consumer engagement, leading to a strong brand presence in the market [49]. - The company has improved its channel management, particularly in the maternal and infant sectors, and has expanded its online presence post-pandemic [8]. 3. Industry Demand Recovery and Market Position - The infant formula market in China is expected to see a marginal recovery, with a projected decline of only 1.2% in 2025, influenced by a rebound in birth rates [8]. - China Feihe holds a 17.5% market share in the infant formula sector, indicating room for growth compared to international competitors [8]. - The company is enhancing its channel control and product offerings, particularly with the "Xing Fei Fan" series, which is expected to drive revenue growth and improve profit margins [8]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for China Feihe are projected at 221.7 billion, 236.3 billion, and 251.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 38.7 billion, 43.0 billion, and 47.3 billion yuan [1]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 13x in 2025 to 10x in 2027, indicating a potentially undervalued stock compared to peers [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Tencent Holdings (00700.HK), indicating a potential upside in the stock price of approximately 20%-50% from the current levels, with a target price range of HKD 600-750 [27]. Core Insights - Tencent's Q1 2025 financial results exceeded market expectations, with total revenue reaching RMB 1800.22 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and adjusted net profit of RMB 613.29 billion, up 22% year-on-year [2][27]. - The company's strong performance is driven by its leading position in domestic gaming and significant growth in international markets, alongside robust contributions from high-margin businesses such as advertising and cloud services [2][27]. - Tencent's strategic focus on AI technology is enhancing operational efficiency and driving revenue growth across various segments, including gaming and advertising [27]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Tencent achieved a core net profit margin of 26.5% and a gross profit margin of 56%, both reaching historical peaks [2][5]. - The company reported a free cash flow of RMB 471 billion and maintained a strong cash reserve of RMB 2052.53 billion, reflecting a healthy financial position [5][27]. - Capital expenditures surged by 91% year-on-year to RMB 274.8 billion, primarily for AI-related infrastructure and model development [5][8]. Gaming Business - Tencent's value-added services revenue grew by 17% year-on-year, with domestic gaming revenue increasing by 24% to RMB 429 billion, driven by record-breaking performances of titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [9][10]. - International gaming revenue reached RMB 166 billion, up 23% year-on-year, contributing 27.9% to total gaming revenue [10][27]. - The integration of AI technology in gaming operations has improved efficiency, with a 40% increase in scene building efficiency and enhanced player experiences through AI-driven features [12][15][16]. Advertising Business - Tencent's marketing services revenue rose by 20% year-on-year to RMB 318.53 billion, driven by explosive growth in video account advertising [18][27]. - The advertising segment is transitioning from "traffic monetization" to "technology empowerment," with significant contributions from AI-driven advertising systems [18][20]. - The company is optimizing its advertising structure, leading to improved conversion rates and increased user engagement across its platforms [19][20]. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services reached RMB 549.07 billion, a 5% year-on-year increase, benefiting from a recovery in consumer spending and AI-driven enhancements in enterprise solutions [24][26]. - Tencent's cross-border payment services are expanding, with a 45% year-on-year increase in transaction volume, reflecting strong demand from Chinese tourists in Southeast Asia [25][26]. - The integration of AI in cloud services is driving significant growth, with a 60% year-on-year increase in AI-related cloud revenue [25][26]. Future Outlook - Tencent is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of over 20% in the gaming sector over the next two years, supported by the launch of cross-platform titles and a strategic push for international revenue [17][27]. - The company's AI strategy is anticipated to enhance its long-term growth potential, with a projected revenue growth of 8%-10% for 2025 [27].

丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨港股公司点评丨贝壳-W（2423.HK） [Table_Title] 产能延续扩张势头，费率管控成效显著 ——贝壳-W 2025 年一季报业绩点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 自营平台双轮驱动 GTV 延续较高增速，单季链家与贝联存量房货币化比率均环比提升。盈利 短板家装与租赁贡献利润率均同环比提升，费率管控成效卓著放大潜在盈利弹性。鉴于竞争优 势、相对稀缺、潜在业绩弹性等，短期仍有望享有估值溢价。中长期角度，经纪业务份额仍有 提升空间，家装、租赁可贡献潜在增长，数据资产具备较大价值弹性，后续表现仍值期待。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 袁佳楠 刘义 蔡方羿 米雁翔 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490520070001 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490520070002 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BUV416 SFC：BUV463 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 贝壳-W（2423.HK） cjz ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][24][25] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan for FY25Q4, representing a year-over-year growth of 7%, with notable performance in e-commerce and cloud services [1][8] - The adjusted EBITA for the quarter was 32.6 billion yuan, up 36% year-over-year, driven by revenue growth and improved operational efficiency [1][8] - The company announced a dividend of $0.25 per share for FY25, emphasizing its commitment to shareholder returns [1][8] Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - Taobao Group's revenue reached 101.4 billion yuan, growing 9% year-over-year, with a CMR increase of 12% [2][13] - The adjusted EBITA margin for Taobao Group was 41.2%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points year-over-year [2][14] - The company is focusing on enhancing its instant retail capabilities through the launch of Taobao Flash Purchase [2][14] Cloud Computing - Cloud business revenue was 30.1 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by double-digit growth in public cloud services [3][15] - AI-related product revenue continued to grow at triple-digit rates for the seventh consecutive quarter [3][15] - The company maintained its three-year CAPEX plan of 380 billion yuan, with a CAPEX of 24.6 billion yuan for the quarter, up 68% year-over-year [3][15] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 have been adjusted to 1,052.0 billion yuan and 1,124.6 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a 2% downward adjustment [4][25] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 are 166.9 billion yuan and 182.1 billion yuan, respectively, also reflecting a 3% downward adjustment [4][25] - The company is projected to have a PE ratio of 13 times for FY2026 [4][25] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased approximately $6 billion worth of shares in the quarter, totaling about 119 billion yuan for the fiscal year [1][24] - The total shareholder return for FY25 is estimated at around 16.5 billion yuan, corresponding to a shareholder return rate of approximately 5% [1][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Gushengtang with a target price of HKD 67.35 per share, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 33.10 [2][5]. Core Insights - The number of medical visits in Q1 2025 increased by 12.7% year-on-year, reaching approximately 1.21 million, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [3][10]. - The company is expected to see significant performance contributions in 2025 from mergers and acquisitions (M&A), artificial intelligence (AI), and in-hospital preparations [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 3.79 billion and RMB 4.63 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 25.3% and 22.2% [5][11]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted at RMB 480 million for 2025 and RMB 580 million for 2026, with growth rates of 20.6% and 21.0% [5][11]. - The company maintains a gross profit margin of 30.1% and a return on equity (ROE) projected to increase from 11.0% in 2023 to 15.3% in 2026 [5][9]. Growth Drivers - The company has signed equity transfer agreements with four domestic targets in Q1 2025, with an average valuation of 0.8-1x price-to-sales (PS) [4][13]. - An AI initiative is set to launch in July, expected to contribute RMB 30 million to annual performance by creating digital twins of leading TCM specialists [4][13]. - Plans to introduce 10 new in-hospital preparations in 2025, with anticipated revenue exceeding RMB 50 million [4][13]. Market Position - Gushengtang is recognized as a leading domestic chain in traditional Chinese medical services, benefiting from strong brand power and resilient performance [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (06186.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Views - China Feihe is positioned as a leading domestic infant formula brand, with a significant turning point in performance expected in 2024 due to channel reforms and a focus on high-end products [8]. - The company has a strong cash position and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 76% in 2024, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns [8]. - The infant formula industry is anticipated to rebound, with a sustained trend towards high-end products, benefiting China Feihe's strategic focus [8]. Summary by Sections 1. High Dividend and Performance Turning Point - China Feihe is one of the earliest milk powder companies in China, focusing on infant formula and maintaining the top market share [14]. - The company has experienced a significant decline in performance from 2021 to 2023 but is expected to show improvements in 2024, with revenue and net profit projected to grow by 6.2% and 5.3% respectively [20][19]. 2. Strategic Focus on High-End Products - The company has shifted its focus to high-end infant formula products, with the ultra-high-end product line, Star Flying, increasing its revenue share from 22% in 2016 to 75% in 2024 [8][36]. - China Feihe has implemented a robust marketing strategy, achieving the highest brand recognition in the infant formula sector in China [49]. 3. Industry Demand and Market Position - The infant formula market in China is expected to see a marginal recovery, driven by a rebound in birth rates and supportive policies [8]. - China Feihe holds a market share of 17.5% in the infant formula sector, with potential for further growth compared to international competitors [8]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for China Feihe are set at 221.7 billion, 236.3 billion, and 251.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 38.7 billion, 43.0 billion, and 47.3 billion yuan [1]. - The company is currently undervalued compared to peers, with a projected P/E ratio decreasing from 13x in 2025 to 10x in 2027 [8].

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月19日 贝壳-W（02423.HK） 优于大市 一季度营收同比增长 42%，经调整净利润同比持平 Q1 营收同比增长 42%，主要受益于新房交易回暖和房屋租赁服务业务发展。 2025 年 Q1，公司 GTV 交易总额 8437 亿元，同比+34%；营业收入 233 亿元， 同比+42%，其中，新房业务收入占比为 35%，同比提升 5pct，房屋租赁服务 业务收入占比为 22%，同比提升 6pct。 公司盈利水平略下滑。2025 年 Q1，公司实现经调整归母净利润 13.9 亿元， 同比持平；经调整归母净利率 6.0%，同比下降 2.5pct；毛利率 20.7%，同比 下降 4.5pct；贡献利润率 26.1%，同比下降 5.6pct。盈利水平出现下滑，一 方面是存量房业务收入占比下降且贡献利润率下降，另一方面发展较快的房 屋租赁服务业务贡献利润率较低，预期未来几个季度将逐渐改善。此外，公 司有效控制运营成本，销售、管理、研发费率同比显著降低。 存量房业务货币化率和贡献利润率有所降低。2025 年 Q1，公司存量房交易 总额为 5803 亿元，同比+28%；存量房业务收入 69 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [10][16]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in its financial performance, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching $2.981 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.78%, and net profit of $292 million, up 1.74% year-on-year [4][10]. - The company is focusing on store expansion and innovation, aiming to add 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a long-term goal of reaching 20,000 stores by 2026 [9][10]. - The report highlights the continuous improvement in same-store sales and a significant contribution from the delivery segment, which has seen a 13% year-on-year growth [6][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is HKD 348.00, with a total market capitalization of HKD 1,299.10 billion [3]. - The company has a total of 16,642 stores, with 247 new stores added in Q1 2025, of which 62 are franchise stores [5][9]. - The first major shareholder is JP Morgan Chase & Co. [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a restaurant profit margin of 18.6%, an increase of 100 basis points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and improved operational efficiency [6][10]. - The company expects revenue growth rates of 4.6%, 6.3%, and 5.7% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 2.2%, 11.0%, and 12.4% [10][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $2.49, $2.77, and $3.11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing innovative measures, including menu updates and new business models, to expand its target market and increase market share [9][10]. - The report indicates a strong focus on shareholder returns, with $262 million returned to shareholders in Q1 2025, including $172 million in stock buybacks and $90 million in cash dividends [9][10].

2025 年 05 月 19 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： | | chenmz@g | | --- | --- | | 券分析师: 券分析师: | 陈梦竹 ટા 尹芮 S03 | 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 尹芮 S0350522110001 yinr@ghzq.com.cn ——网易-S（9999.HK）2025Q1 财报点评 最近一年走势 事件: 2025 年 5 月 15 日公司公告 2025Q1 财报，2025Q1 实现营收 288.29 亿 元（YoY+7.4%、QoQ+7.8%）；归母净利润为 103.01 亿元（YoY+34.9%、 QoQ+17.5%），non-GAAP 归母净利润为 112.37 亿元（YoY+32%、 QoQ+16.1%）。 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 [Table_Title] 游戏稳健，降本增效带动利润显著增长 1、主要财务指标分析：网易 2025Q1 实现营业收入 288.29 亿元 （ YoY+7.4% 、 QoQ+7.8% ） ； 归 母 净 利 润 为 ...