寒武纪-U（688256.SH）2025 年业绩预告点评 国产算力龙头迎来重要业绩拐点 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 01 日 分析师：吕伟 分析师：方竞 执业证书：S0590525110033 执业证书：S0590525120003 推荐 维持评级 当前价格： 1,258.89 元 相对走势 -10% 57% 123% 190% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/1 寒武纪-U 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 [Table_Author] 分析师：郭新宇 执业证书：S0590525110034 邮箱：guoxinyu@glms.com.cn 邮箱：lvwei_yj@glms.com.cn 邮箱：fangjing@glms.com.cn 事件概述：2026 年 1 月 30 日，公司发布 2025 年度业绩预告，预计营收 60 亿 元-70 亿元，同比增 410.87%-496.02%；归母净利润 18.5 亿元-21.5 亿元，实 现扭亏为盈；扣非归母净利润 16 亿元-19 亿元。 业绩大幅增长，收入有望达到预 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a focus on transformation and growth opportunities in the home furnishing sector [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face significant pressure on its short-term performance, with a projected net profit loss of between 1.15 billion to 850 million yuan for 2025, compared to a profit of 769 million yuan in the previous year [1]. - The report highlights a strategic shift towards enhancing quality and efficiency, leveraging AI design to create new traffic channels, and focusing on digitalization and globalization to drive revenue growth [2][3]. - The company has accelerated its overseas expansion, with positive developments in Cambodia and Macau, and plans to continue deepening its core home furnishing business while exploring new consumer scenarios [3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 12.966 billion yuan in 2024 to 11.653 billion yuan in 2025, before recovering to 12.301 billion yuan in 2026 and 12.929 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 5.6% and 5.1% in those years respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -1.004 billion yuan in 2025, with a recovery to 606 million yuan in 2026 and 699 million yuan in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround [4]. - The gross margin is forecasted to decrease to 20.3% in 2025, with a gradual recovery to 23.3% in 2026 and 24.1% in 2027 [4]. Operational Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's leasing and management business revenue was 23.83 billion yuan, down 21.3% year-on-year, while merchandise sales revenue increased by 29.5% to 36.31 billion yuan [2]. - The company is actively transforming its business model, with plans to operate shopping centers and modern department stores in key urban areas, which are expected to contribute to revenue recovery as the macroeconomic environment improves [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Kevin Education (002659.SZ) with a current price of 6.40 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 335 million to 350 million CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.79% to 9.48%. The total profit is projected to be between 1 million and 1.5 million CNY, indicating a turnaround to profitability [9]. - The company has core assets in international schools and is actively developing educational services, quality education, and vocational education. The growth in student enrollment is contributing to a steady increase in revenue [9]. - The establishment of a joint venture, Zhihui Wenhua, with a focus on AI-driven educational products marks a strategic move into the "AI + Education" sector, which is expected to open a second growth curve for the company [9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 320 million, 345 million, 415 million, and 465 million CNY respectively, with growth rates of 25.9%, 8.0%, 20.3%, and 12.0% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -37 million, -19 million, 33 million, and 72 million CNY for the years 2024 to 2027, with growth rates of 25.7%, 47.4%, 267.3%, and 120.0% respectively [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.06 CNY in 2024 to 0.12 CNY in 2027 [2]. Strategic Developments - The company has formed strategic partnerships with major tech firms such as Tencent, Baidu, Huawei, and Xiaomi to enhance its AI training base and promote industry-education integration [9]. - The launch of the Zhihui APP, an AI-assisted learning tool, is currently being tested in various schools, showcasing the company's commitment to integrating AI into its educational offerings [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 3.54 billion to 3.94 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80% to 101%, with a median estimate of 3.74 billion yuan (yoy +91%) [4]. - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for Q4 2025, with estimates ranging from 290 million to 690 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 58% to 1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 76% to 42% [4]. - The decline in Q4 performance is attributed to asset impairment provisions totaling 320 million yuan for certain production facilities, a significant drop in R22 prices, and reduced profitability and sales in petrochemical materials and basic chemical products [4][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 27.96 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.3% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 3.75 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 91.6% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.39 yuan in 2025, increasing to 2.80 yuan by 2027 [5]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 17.5% in 2025 to 22.5% in 2027 [5]. Market and Segment Analysis - The company’s refrigerant sales volume for Q4 2025 is estimated at 112,400 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47.8% [6]. - The average selling price of refrigerants in Q4 2025 is expected to be 37,307 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27% [6]. - The report highlights that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the upward price trend in refrigerants due to a tightening global supply and increasing downstream demand [6].

寒武纪-U（688256.SH）2025 年业绩预告点评 国产算力龙头迎来重要业绩拐点 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 01 日 分析师：吕伟 分析师：方竞 执业证书：S0590525110033 执业证书：S0590525120003 推荐 维持评级 当前价格： 1,258.89 元 相对走势 -10% 57% 123% 190% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/1 寒武纪-U 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 [Table_Author] 分析师：郭新宇 执业证书：S0590525110034 邮箱：guoxinyu@glms.com.cn 邮箱：lvwei_yj@glms.com.cn 邮箱：fangjing@glms.com.cn 事件概述：2026 年 1 月 30 日，公司发布 2025 年度业绩预告，预计营收 60 亿 元-70 亿元，同比增 410.87%-496.02%；归母净利润 18.5 亿元-21.5 亿元，实 现扭亏为盈；扣非归母净利润 16 亿元-19 亿元。 业绩大幅增长，收入有望达到预 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 3.54 billion to 3.94 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80% to 101%, with a median estimate of 3.74 billion yuan (yoy +91%) [4]. - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for Q4 2025, with estimates ranging from 290 million to 690 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 58% to 1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 76% to 42% [4]. - The decline in Q4 performance is attributed to asset impairment provisions totaling 320 million yuan, a significant drop in R22 prices, and reduced profitability and sales in petrochemical materials and basic chemical products [4]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 27.96 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.3% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 3.75 billion yuan for 2025, with a significant year-on-year increase of 91.6% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.39 yuan in 2025, increasing to 2.80 yuan by 2027 [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 17.5% in 2025 to 22.5% in 2027 [5]. Market and Segment Analysis - The average price of R22 has significantly decreased, impacting the company's refrigerant segment, while the prices of mainstream third-generation refrigerants have continued to rise [6]. - The company sold 112,400 tons of refrigerants in Q4 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47.8% [6]. - The sales price for refrigerants in Q4 2025 was 37,307 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13% due to the drop in R22 prices [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 500 million to 550 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 59% to 75% [1] - The growth in net profit is primarily driven by the rapid expansion of the wind power industry, improved order structure, and enhanced cost competitiveness through internal capability building [2][3] - The company is positioned as a leader in high-altitude safety equipment for wind power, with significant growth potential in both domestic and overseas markets [2] - The company is also expanding into multiple sectors, including industrial and construction, emergency rescue, and power grids, with new products expected to drive future growth [3] Financial Summary - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.845 billion, 2.103 billion, and 2.372 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 14%, and 13% [5] - The estimated net profits for the same years are approximately 521 million, 628 million, and 728 million yuan, with growth rates of 66%, 20%, and 16% [5] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 18, 15, and 13 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with a forecasted growth of 59%-75%, translating to a net profit of between 500 million to 550 million yuan [1][2] - The growth is driven by the rapid expansion of the wind power industry, improved order structure, and enhanced customer recognition of the company's products [2] - The company is positioned as a leader in high-altitude safety equipment for wind power, benefiting from both domestic market demand and overseas expansion opportunities [2][3] Financial Summary - The projected net profit for 2025 is approximately 521 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 66% [5] - Revenue is expected to reach 1.845 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 42% increase [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.45 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 [5] Growth Drivers - The company is enhancing its product offerings in response to customer needs, leading to an increase in order size and value [2] - The domestic wind power market is projected to maintain high demand, with new installations expected to reach at least 120 GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - The company is also expanding into multiple sectors, including industrial and construction, emergency rescue, and power grid applications, which are expected to contribute to future growth [3]

[Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 事件：公司发布 2025 年度业绩预告 2026 年 1 月 30 日公司发布 2025 年业绩预告。公司预计 2025 年实现归母净 利润 1.65-2.07 亿元，同比+134%~+194%，中值 1.86 亿元，同比+164%；预计 实现扣非归母净利润 1.60-2.02 亿元，同比+152%~+218%，中值 1.81 亿元，同 比+185%。公司全年业绩实现较快增长，主要受益于 AI 算力建设需求爆发， 服务器代工厂 CAPEX 有较大幅度增长，对公司锡膏印刷设备需求快速提升。 2025 年度公司毛利率相对较高的部分产品销售额增加，产品结构有所优化。 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·专用设备 凯格精机（301338） 2025 年业绩预告点评：25 年利润同比高 增，看好产品结构改善带来盈利能力提升 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·专用设备 凯格精机（301338） 2025 年业绩预告点评：25 年利润同比高 增，看好产品结构改善带来盈利能力提升 买入（维持） ◼ 事件：公司发布 2025 年度业绩预告 2026 年 1 月 30 日公司发布 2025 年业绩预告。公司预计 2025 年实现归母净 利润 1.65-2.07 亿元，同比+134%~+194%，中值 1.86 亿元，同比+164%；预计 实现扣非归母净利润 1.60-2.02 亿元，同比+152%~+218%，中值 1.81 亿元，同 比+185%。公司全年业绩实现较快增长，主要受益于 AI 算力建设需求爆发， 服务器代工厂 CAPEX 有较大幅度增长，对公司锡膏印刷设备需求快速提升。 2025 年度公司毛利率相对较高的部分产品销售额增加，产品结构有所优化。 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 740.02 | 856.60 | 1,190.15 | ...