证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源/行业深度报告 领先大市（维持） 2026年电新行业年度策略: 反内卷与科技引领，触底反弹启新篇 分析师：贺朝晖 S0910525030003 周涛 S0910523050001 2025年12月8日 本报告仅供华金证券客户中的专业投资者参考 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 目录 1、行业周期回顾 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 2 2、核聚变：政策支持+资本开支驱动，产业进入加速期 3、AIDC电源：算力需求+SST技术革命引领新趋势 4、锂电：需求增长+固态技术迭代，景气周期开启 5、储能：市场化交易提升需求，有望迎来量价齐升 6、风电：量利持续修复， "两海"主线明确 7、投资建议：细分beta+科技alpha机遇共振 8、风险提示 复盘2025：反内卷加速行业触底反弹 -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% 2010年 2011年 2012年 2013年 2014年 2015年 2016年 2017年 2018年 2019年 2020年 2021年 202 年 2023年 2024年 2025年 2026年 2027年 光 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that A-shares are expected to experience improvements in fundamental expectations, macro liquidity, policy and industry themes, and chip pressure digestion in December, potentially leading to an early start of the spring rally [1][2] - The spring rally is a significant calendar effect in A-shares, characterized by improvements in fundamental expectations, macro liquidity, and policy/industry themes [2][3] - The observation window for the first two points is from early to mid-December, while the third point is around mid-December [3] Group 2 - In terms of structural performance, small-cap stocks have a higher win rate (75% since 2010), with leading sectors typically being cyclical or growth-oriented, both of which have win rates exceeding 80% since 2010 [3] - The cyclical sector is driven by price increase expectations, while the growth sector is driven by industry themes, with a focus on aviation equipment, AI-related energy storage, and power grid equipment for the former, and chemicals and energy metals for the latter [3] Group 3 - ByteDance has launched the "Doubao Phone Assistant," aiming to integrate AI capabilities at the OS level, indicating a shift from being a standalone app to a more integrated approach [4] - The product is still in the early exploration phase, but the partnership with Nubia for high-frequency iterations shows ByteDance's commitment to capturing the AI native entry point in mobile [4][5] - ByteDance's strategy involves open collaboration to provide its AI models as the "brain" for various hardware brands, avoiding supply chain risks and enabling rapid penetration into the Android ecosystem [4] Group 4 - The next key focus for ByteDance is the "Force Byte Original Power Conference" on December 18-19, where new members of its ecosystem may be announced, potentially involving upgrades to multimodal model capabilities or new hardware partnerships [5] - The integration of AI across devices, such as through the Ola Friend AI earphones, creates a closed-loop experience for users, enhancing the functionality of the phone assistant [5] Group 5 - Newray Energy (300593) is positioned to leverage its existing products and technologies in AIDC power systems, with potential breakthroughs in overseas customer bases [7] - The rapid development of AI technology is driving a significant upgrade in data center power supply systems, presenting opportunities for Chinese power electronics companies to enter overseas supply chains [7] - The company has established a comprehensive power supply solution from AC supply to terminal chip levels, and has a strong foundation in serving major international clients like Samsung and Nokia [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its long-term operational potential [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has deepened its focus on the power supply industry for nearly 30 years, specializing in high-efficiency and high-reliability power supply markets. It has established a solid foundation in the telecommunications sector and is now increasing investments in data center power supply as a strategic business [1][7]. - The company is expected to achieve new growth in the AIDC power supply market, with potential strong profitability if it successfully penetrates overseas markets with its new products [1][7]. - The company has a robust research and development (R&D) capability, with R&D expense ratios significantly increasing in recent years due to investments in new fields, which is expected to improve operational performance in the future [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to decline from 1,467 million yuan in 2023 to 922 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 1,729 million yuan in 2026 and 2,327 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 37% in 2025 and 35% in 2027 [2][24]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -501 million yuan in 2024, improving to 132 million yuan in 2026 and 353 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of -25.9 in 2024 and 36.8 in 2027 [2][24]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 13 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 10.8 billion yuan [3]. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leading supplier of high-reliability and high-power density power products, with applications in critical sectors such as telecommunications, aerospace, military, and railways [7][11]. - The company has a diversified product range, including modular power supplies, customized power supplies, and high-power power supply systems, catering to various industries [17][19]. Growth Opportunities - The rapid development of AI is expected to create significant demand for power supply solutions, presenting opportunities for the company to enter overseas supply chains [7][29]. - The company has a strong customer base and has established long-term partnerships with major domestic and international clients, enhancing its market position [35][36]. - The company is strategically investing in AIDC power supply business, which is anticipated to yield breakthroughs in the near future [37][38]. Recent Developments - The company has implemented a new round of employee stock ownership plans and incentive programs aimed at enhancing team motivation and performance [41][42]. - The company has seen initial success in converting R&D efforts into revenue, with a significant increase in revenue in the third quarter of 2025, marking a turning point in its financial performance [23][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.846 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.36%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.347 billion yuan, up 4.79% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 3.311 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.32% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.51%. However, the net profit for Q3 was 825 million yuan, down 17.84% year-on-year but up 1% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Financial Performance - For Q3, the company had operating expenses of 300 million yuan, with an expense ratio of 9.1%, both of which increased quarter-on-quarter. This was primarily due to financial expenses rising from exchange rate fluctuations, with estimated exchange losses around 60 million yuan [11]. - The company is expected to maintain growth in orders from Ukraine, alongside improvements in demand from other markets, leading to a positive operational trend in Q4. The company is positioned as a leader in household and commercial energy storage, benefiting from rapid growth in emerging markets and overseas commercial storage [11]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.3 billion yuan and 4.1 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 23 and 18 times [11].

Core Viewpoint - Yangguang Power, led by billionaire Cao Renxian, has achieved significant financial growth in the first three quarters of this year, with revenue reaching 66.4 billion yuan, a 33% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 11.88 billion yuan, up 56% year-on-year, marking a 68-fold increase since its IPO in 2011 [3][5][11] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Yangguang Power reported a revenue of 66.4 billion yuan, a 33% increase compared to the previous year, and a net profit of 11.88 billion yuan, reflecting a 56% year-on-year growth [3][5] - The company's stock price has surged over 240% in the past six months, closing at 194.68 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 403.6 billion yuan [3][5] - The company's core products include photovoltaic inverters, energy storage systems, wind power converters, electric vehicle power control systems, and hydrogen energy equipment, with energy storage systems becoming the largest revenue contributor [5][6] Business Expansion - Yangguang Power has expanded its business into five core areas: photovoltaic, wind energy, energy storage, electric vehicles, and hydrogen energy [5][6] - The energy storage business has seen a 70% increase in shipment volume in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 17.8 billion yuan, a 127.78% increase year-on-year [7][8] - The company plans to enter the AI Data Center (AIDC) power supply market, which is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 32.2% from 2024 to 2030 [8][10] Market Position and Strategy - Yangguang Power's photovoltaic inverter products have maintained a leading global market share of approximately 25.2% in 2024, with a revenue of 15.33 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 17.06% year-on-year growth [6][7] - The company is focusing on high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technology for AIDC, leveraging its existing expertise in power electronics to meet the evolving needs of data centers [9][10] - Yangguang Power is also planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global presence and diversify its financing channels [11][12]

Core Insights - The report from Ping An Securities highlights that Sunshine Power's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 11.881 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 56.34% [1] - The company experienced strong revenue and profit growth, with an increasing share of overseas energy storage business [1] Business Segments Summary - **Energy Storage Business**: The company's energy storage shipments grew by 70% year-on-year, aligning with the market installation growth rate. The overseas shipment proportion increased significantly from 63% in the same period last year to 83%, which is a key factor in maintaining stable gross margins [1] - **Photovoltaic Inverter Revenue**: Revenue from photovoltaic inverters increased by approximately 6% year-on-year, with gross margins improving due to market structure changes. The domestic shipment proportion decreased from 48% last year to 40% this year, while gross margins across various sub-markets remained stable [1] - **New Energy Investment and Development**: Revenue for this segment was 11.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline, primarily due to the impact of Document No. 136 on household photovoltaic businesses [1] Market Outlook - The global large-scale energy storage market is experiencing high demand, and the company's profitability remains strong. Sunshine Power's energy storage systems and photovoltaic inverter businesses are globally leading, showcasing strong market competitiveness [1] - The company's third-quarter performance was impressive, with enhanced profitability. The global large-scale energy storage market is expected to flourish, and AIDC power supply and energy storage integration are anticipated to become new growth points for the company [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported strong financial performance with revenue of 66.402 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.95%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 11.881 billion yuan, up 56.34% year-on-year [5][9] - The company has seen significant improvement in cash flow, with net cash from operating activities amounting to 9.914 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 1133.14% year-on-year, indicating strong sales collection capabilities [9] - The company is well-positioned in the global energy storage market, with a notable increase in overseas sales, which accounted for 83% of total shipments, up from 63% in the previous year [9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Growth: The company achieved a revenue of 66.402 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 32.95% increase year-on-year. The gross profit margin was 34.88%, up 3.56 percentage points from the previous year [5][9] - Segment Performance: The energy storage segment saw a 70% increase in shipments year-on-year, while the photovoltaic inverter revenue grew by approximately 6% [9] - Cash Flow Improvement: The company reported a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities, with cash received from sales reaching 60.065 billion yuan, a 31% increase year-on-year [9] Future Projections - Revenue Forecast: Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 101.059 billion yuan, 125.902 billion yuan, and 145.952 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.8%, 24.6%, and 15.9% [7][11] - Net Profit Forecast: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 15.858 billion yuan in 2025, 19.847 billion yuan in 2026, and 22.944 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 43.7%, 25.1%, and 15.6% [7][11] - Valuation Metrics: The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 25.0, 20.0, and 17.3, respectively [7][11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the advancements in the AIDC power supply industry, particularly focusing on solid-state transformers (SST) and the implications of NVIDIA's new technologies [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU is projected to achieve total sales of $500 billion, indicating strong market demand which positively impacts the AIDC power supply sector, especially the silicon transformer segment [1][2]. - The introduction of an 800-volt direct current (DC) power supply architecture aims to enhance power efficiency, reduce material usage, and optimize space utilization in data centers [1][4]. - The transition to the 800-volt DC power supply will occur in three phases: retrofitting old data centers, implementing new facilities without UPS systems, and ultimately adopting medium-voltage rectifiers or transformer configurations [4][9]. - Solid-state transformers (SST) offer significant advantages over traditional transformers, including reduced size, higher integration, and improved space utilization through advanced rectification and inversion technologies [5][8]. Important Developments - NVIDIA's recent GTC technology summit revealed that over 6 million Blackwell GPUs were sold in the past four quarters, showcasing robust demand for NVIDIA products [2]. - Jinpan Technology has clarified its research and sales plans for SSTs, boosting market confidence in the application and development of SSTs [2][11]. - The AIDC power supply architecture has undergone notable changes over the past year, with a clear trend towards technological iteration and efficiency improvements [3]. Additional Insights - When selecting A-share targets, companies with channel advantages should be prioritized over those with purely technical strengths. Companies like Jinpan Technology and Sungrow Power are highlighted for their overseas channels and integrated capabilities [10]. - Jinpan Technology has completed the iteration of its SST 2.0 version and plans to release the 3.0 version by 2026, marking its entry into the North American market [11]. - Sungrow Power benefits from a strong overseas market presence and has accumulated significant experience in traditional large storage businesses, positioning it well for growth in the SST market [12][13]. - Sifang Co. and Zhongheng Electric are noted for their potential in the SST field, with Sifang already possessing complete product capabilities and expanding overseas channels [14]. - In the high-frequency transformer segment, Jin Jianhua Company is recommended for its strong channel development and reliability [15].

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 66.402 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 32.95%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 11.881 billion yuan, up 56.34% [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, predicting net profits of 16.15 billion, 20.08 billion, and 22.25 billion yuan respectively, reflecting strong performance driven by global energy storage demand [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 22.869 billion yuan, a 20.83% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 4.147 billion yuan, growing by 57.04% [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was 9.914 billion yuan, showing a substantial increase of 1133.14% year-on-year, indicating improved operational quality [1] Business Segments - The inverter business saw a revenue increase of approximately 6% year-on-year, with domestic shipment proportion decreasing from 48% to 40%, while high-margin overseas market share increased, leading to improved gross margins [2] - The energy storage business performed strongly, with shipment volume increasing by 70% year-on-year, and the overseas shipment proportion rising from 63% to 83%, supporting stable gross margins [2] Product Development - The company is increasing R&D investments, launching new products such as the PowerTitan 3.0 AC storage platform and PowerStack 255CS system to strengthen market competitiveness [2] - The company is advancing the development of AIDC power products, aiming for product rollout and small-scale delivery by 2026, which is expected to become a new growth driver [2] Market Opportunities - The next-generation high-power data centers require solutions for load fluctuations and high electricity costs, creating strong demand for complementary energy storage solutions, presenting new growth opportunities for the company [2]

Overall Viewpoint - The electric new energy sector is experiencing increased volatility due to fluctuating tariff policies. In Q3 2025, China's energy storage lithium battery shipments are projected to reach 165 GWh, with a total of 430 GWh expected from Q1 to Q3, and an annual forecast of 580 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 75%. Energy storage and lithium batteries remain the most prosperous sub-sectors within the electric new energy industry [4]. Group 1: Solid-State Batteries - There are significant advancements in solid-state battery technology, including improvements in interface contact through iodine ions, polymer electrolyte frameworks, and fluorinated polyether materials. The market is shifting from equipment speculation to material speculation, indicating that this trend will likely continue [4]. Group 2: Energy Storage - Due to domestic and international policy factors, energy storage demand is being anticipated earlier. The industry is expected to maintain a favorable outlook through 2025-2026. Current stock prices may continue to experience high-level fluctuations, with investment preferences leaning towards companies that resonate with AIDC power sources and photovoltaic "anti-involution" logic [4]. Group 3: Lithium Battery Materials - According to SMM data, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been rising, reaching an average of 75,500 yuan per ton as of October 17. Some negative electrode companies have increased the prices of graphite negative electrode products by 2,000-3,000 yuan per ton, primarily due to rising petroleum coke prices. Battery manufacturers are still under pressure to lower prices, while leading companies in lithium iron phosphate and separators are maintaining good capacity utilization rates, with orders flowing to small and medium-sized enterprises [4]. Group 4: Power Equipment and Photovoltaics - Currently, the stock prices of power equipment and photovoltaic sectors are relatively low, primarily due to the industry's weaker outlook. Market trends will determine the direction of these two sectors in Q4 2025, influenced by defensive factors and the preliminary results of photovoltaic "anti-involution." There are signs of improvement, but a definitive trend has yet to form, warranting close monitoring [6]. Group 5: Policy Changes - Recent announcements from the Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration regarding adjustments to value-added tax policies for wind power have garnered market attention. The cancellation of the 50% immediate refund policy for land-based wind power is noted, while the benefits for offshore wind power will be retained from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027. This policy change is expected to have a slight impact on the internal rate of return (IRR) of wind power projects, but the overall effect may be less significant than the marketization requirements outlined in document "136" [5].