渝农商行（601077.SH） 农商行Ⅱ 渝农商行： "新动能"落地强化银行竞争力，基本面改善空间较大 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 03 月 03 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：戴志锋 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 27,902 | 28,179 | 28,584 | 30,129 | 31,917 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | -3.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 10,900 | 11,513 | 11,963 | 13,153 | 14,514 | | Email：daizf@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 9.9% | 10.4% | | 分 ...

主力资金闻风而动，今日净买入银行板块53.34亿元，在申万一级行业中仅次于石油石化、交通运输。 分析来看，银行走强的核心原因在于"红利+防御"的资产属性，地缘政治风险带动市场避险情绪升温， 防御性资产重获资金关注。 具体来看，一方面，经过此前回调，银行股重回高股息、低估值的高性价比区间。截至3月3日，A股42 只银行股中22股股息率超4.5%，中证银行指数整体股息率达4.74%，估值市净率PB（LF）仅0.64倍，长 期配置价值突出。在无风险利率中枢下行的背景下，高股息资产对长期资金的吸引力增强。 地缘冲突加剧导致全球避险情绪升温，银行股逆市走强。全市场规模最大的银行ETF（512800）场内价 格一度上涨1.67%，收涨0.9%，日线稳步3连阳，收复10日、20日两条重要均线，全天成交额14.5亿元， 创2025年12月以来天量。 个股多数走强，国有大行集体冲高，农业银行涨近4%，交通银行、工商银行、建设银行、中国银行涨 超2%，邮储银行涨1%；城农商行局部强势，重庆银行涨超5%，渝农商行涨超3%。 另一方面，从历史长期表现看，银行板块具备优异的抗风险能力。数据显示，截至2025年末，中证银行 指数自200 ...

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年2月28日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 重慶農村商業銀行股份有限公司 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的確認 足夠公眾持股量的確認(註4) 呈交日期: 2026年3月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03618 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,513,336,041 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 2,513,336,041 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 2,513,336,041 | RMB | | 1 ...

股 当前如何看待银行股投资机会 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 银行周报（2026/02/24-2026/02/27） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 刘源(分析师) | 021-38677818 | liuyuan2@gtht.com | S0880521060001 | 本报告导读： 年初以来银行板块受投资风格转换、宽基指数 ETF大额卖出、基本面缺乏有力催化 等影响跑输大盘，但个股不乏超额收益，2026 年应注重板块内自下而上α收益挖掘。 投资要点： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 商业银行《大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信 贷增长放缓》2026.02.25 商业银行《25 年银行净利润增速回正—25Q4 银 行监管指标》2026.02.23 商业银行《企业短贷回暖，存款搬家趋势持续》 2026.02.23 ...

股 当前如何看待银行股投资机会 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 本报告导读： 年初以来银行板块受投资风格转换、宽基指数 ETF大额卖出、基本面缺乏有力催化 等影响跑输大盘，但个股不乏超额收益，2026 年应注重板块内自下而上α收益挖掘。 投资要点： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 银行周报（2026/02/24-2026/02/27） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 刘源(分析师) | 021-38677818 | liuyuan2@gtht.com | S0880521060001 | 商业银行《大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信 贷增长放缓》2026.02.25 商业银行《25 年银行净利润增速回正—25Q4 银 行监管指标》2026.02.23 商业银行《企业短贷回暖，存款搬家趋势持续》 2026.02.23 ...

银行行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 净利润增速转正，息差阶段性企稳 ——25Q4 银行业监管指标数据点评 核心观点 ⚫ 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 2026 年银行板块有望回归基本面叙事："十五五"开局之年，政策性金融工具加持 下资产扩张仍有韧性；仍处于存款集中重定价周期，支撑净息差有望企稳；结构性 风险暴露仍期待有政策托底。2026 年，保险行业将系统性执行 I9，公募考核新规的 中长期引导效应也有望显现，我们看好 2026 年银行板块绝对收益。现阶段关注两条 投资主线： 1、基本面确定的优质中小行，相关标的：南京银行(601009，买入)、宁波银行 (002142，买入)、渝农商行(601077，买入)； 2、基本面稳健、具备较好防御价值的国有大行，相关标的：交通银行(601328，未 评级)、工商银行(601398，未评级)。 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；房地产等重点领域风险蔓延；流动性环境超预期收紧。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 国家/地区 中国 行业 银行行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the banking sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Lunar New Year misalignment has disrupted the deposit growth rhythm, with a continued trend of personal fixed deposits migrating from small to large banks [2][4]. - On the asset side, credit growth continues to slow down, with a significant increase in short-term loans, particularly among large banks [4]. Summary by Sections Liabilities - The Lunar New Year misalignment has caused disturbances in deposit growth [3]. - Total deposits increased by CNY 3.5 trillion year-on-year, with demand deposits and fixed deposits increasing by CNY 2.5 trillion and decreasing by CNY 912 billion, respectively [5]. Assets - Total loans decreased by CNY 489.3 billion year-on-year, with large banks and small banks seeing decreases of CNY 213 billion and CNY 276.3 billion, respectively [4]. - Short-term loans increased by CNY 347.8 billion year-on-year, while medium and long-term loans decreased by CNY 377.2 billion [4]. - Large banks saw a year-on-year increase of CNY 419.7 billion in short-term loans, while small banks experienced a decrease of CNY 718 million [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment in the banking sector: 1. Identifying targets with expected performance growth, recommending banks like Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Nanjing Bank [6]. 2. Emphasizing banks with convertible bond expectations, recommending Chongqing Bank and Changshu Bank [6]. 3. Continuing dividend strategies, recommending banks such as Bank of Communications and Jiangsu Bank [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [58]. Core Insights - In 2025, the banking sector's asset growth is projected to be 8.01%, an increase from 6.52% in 2024, driven by factors such as fiscal stimulus, cross-border capital inflows, and the activation of maturing deposits [5][13]. - The report identifies two key cycles affecting asset pricing in banking: the bank expansion cycle and the interest margin cycle, suggesting a comprehensive analysis of these cycles [5][13]. - The debt cycle is characterized as a fundamental aspect of the bank expansion cycle, with a model proposed by Dalio outlining seven stages of a typical debt cycle, which can be influenced by external debt reliance [16][19]. - The report anticipates limited upward space for the debt cycle in 2026, with government leverage expected to increase by 5.89%, lower than the 7.6% projected for 2025 [35][36]. - The banking interest margin cycle is expected to stabilize in 2025, following two complete cycles since 2010, with a correlation observed between bank interest margins and the 30Y-10Y government bond spread [41][45]. Summary by Sections Bank Expansion Cycle - The asset growth rates for different types of banks in 2025 are projected as follows: state-owned banks at 11%, joint-stock banks at 4.74%, city commercial banks at 9.68%, and rural commercial banks at 5.17%, all exceeding the average growth rate [5][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the relationship between bank assets and liabilities, highlighting that credit and debt expansion are cyclical and self-reinforcing [15][16]. Debt Cycle Analysis - The report outlines that the current debt cycle, which began in 2022, has lasted 16 quarters, surpassing previous cycles, and indicates a shift in leverage dynamics among enterprises, government, and households [35][36]. - The analysis includes a comparison of deflationary and inflationary debt cycles, noting that the U.S. faces greater inflationary pressures due to higher external debt reliance compared to China [21][19]. Interest Margin Cycle - The report notes that the banking interest margin has experienced significant fluctuations since 2010, with a stabilization phase expected to begin in 2025 [41][45]. - It highlights the impact of loan repricing cycles on interest margins, with a notable decline in loan rates observed in recent years [49][50].

今日，银行板块跌幅为0.34%。渝农商行、重庆银行为该板块跌幅前两名的上市公司。 (责任编辑：田云绯) 中国经济网北京2月24日讯 渝农商行(601077.SH)今日收报6.52元，跌幅1.95%；重庆银行 (601963.SH)今日收报10.05元，跌幅1.57%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital's increased investment in bank stocks aligns with long-term trends, with an estimated total of 400 billion yuan expected to be allocated to bank stocks in 2026 and 2027, starting from Q2 2026 [1] Group 1: Reasons for Increased Investment - Internal drivers include the long-term preference of insurance capital for bank stocks due to high dividends, stable operations, and better capital utilization compared to other stocks [1] - External catalysts involve policy guidance and regulatory changes that expand the investment space for insurance capital, encouraging long-term funds to enter the market [1] Group 2: Methods of Investment - Insurance capital primarily increases its holdings in bank stocks through secondary market acquisitions, with additional methods including agreement transfers and convertible bond conversions [2] - The investment accounting methods for insurance capital include TPL, OCI, and long-term stock investments, focusing on price differences, dividends, and equity returns [2] Group 3: Investment Space Outlook - The estimated new inflow of insurance capital into the stock market is projected to be 1.34 trillion yuan in 2026 and 1.41 trillion yuan in 2027 [3] - It is anticipated that 197.7 billion yuan and 207.6 billion yuan will be allocated to bank stocks in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3] - High-quality regional city commercial banks are expected to be a key focus for insurance capital, with major insurance companies already recognizing these banks as viable investment options [3] Group 4: Monitoring Investment Allocation - The current phase is seen as a reasonable entry point for insurance capital into the banking sector, with attention on upcoming changes in policy and premium growth [4] - The valuation comparison between banks and other asset classes is crucial, with the current PB ratio of the Shenwan Bank Index at 0.51x, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [4] - Key events such as insurance companies' announcements regarding shareholding and approvals will signal potential future increases in insurance capital holdings [4]