2026年春节A股休市期间，外围海外市场并非风平浪静。 美股科技板块的深度调整，以及港股市场的大跌，使得大家对下周A股的走势捏了一把汗。 虽然展现出相对剧烈的分化、波动，但同时又有各种利好消息对冲，宏观微观都有，情况显得复杂多变。 那到底，下周重开的大A，会给我们什么样的表现？ 01 下跌 先看看春节假期，全球市场的表现是如何分化的？ 美股大型科技巨头走势涨跌不一，有AI相关利好消息出现了企稳反弹，没有的则继续寻底。 原因很简单，一方面，华尔街对AI的投资回报率产生疑虑，同时对AI可能颠覆传统软件业的担忧情绪升温，导致大型科 技股遭到集中抛售； 中概股整体上，则继续弱势。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数在2月13日至2月19日累计下跌0.50%，阿里巴巴、网易、百度等热门中概股均录得下跌，这为港股 节后开市蒙上了一层阴影。 果不其然，2月20日，港股春节后的首个交易日，市场非但没有迎来期盼中的"开门红"，恒指反而低开低走，最终收跌 1.10%，恒生科技指数更是大跌2.91%，科技股则全线下跌。 因此，下周A股重开的时候，需要警惕有可能出现的补跌，尤其是AI科技类。 流动性层面上，这种补跌属于常规，不太可能触发国家稳定资 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index opened high, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.46% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.77% [1] - As of the report, the Hang Seng Tech Index had risen over 3%, currently at 5368.750 points, while the Hang Seng Index was up by 2% [1] Stock Movements - Technology stocks collectively opened higher, with notable increases: NetEase up 3%, Meituan up 2%, Alibaba nearly 2%, Tencent up 1%, and Kuaishou over 3% [3] - Semiconductor stocks also showed strength, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising by 4% and SMIC increasing by over 3% [3] - Gold stocks performed well, with China Gold International up nearly 7% and Shandong Gold up over 5% [3] Individual Stock Performance - Specific stock performances included: - NetEase-S at 186.000, up 3.74% - JD Health at 58.750, up 3.34% - Kuaishou-W at 68.500, up 3.01% - JD Group-SW at 106.500, up 2.60% - Meituan-W at 82.750, up 2.48% - Ctrip Group-S at 424.400, up 2.07% - Tencent Music-SW at 59.650, up 2.05% - Alibaba-W at 149.900, up 1.90% [4] Declines in Specific Stocks - Zhipu experienced a significant decline, dropping over 20% at one point, and MINIMAX also fell over 10%, with Zhipu's decline narrowing to nearly 13% by the time of reporting [4][5] - Zhipu issued an apology letter addressing issues related to the GLM-5 release, including transparency concerns and slow upgrade mechanisms for existing users, and proposed compensation measures [5]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：首席经济学家论坛 李迅雷系中泰国际首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛副理事长 在过去30多年的研究经历中，我一直在与各种数据打交道，因为只有准确的数据及数据之间的相互比 对，得出的结论才能令人信服。在数据面前，所有的形容词、感叹句都显得苍白。 资料来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所（注：2025年为前三季度数据） 为何2025年的外贸顺差超过了1.19万亿美元，而出口金额占全球比重却是下降呢？这是因为我国出口价 格指数（美元）一直在往下走，从2023年至2025年，我国出口价格指数累计下跌了约19%，大大超越其 他发展中国家的跌幅。事实上，我国PPI在过去15年中的涨幅为零，我称之为"失去的十五年"。说明我 国产能过剩的问题在10多年前就非常突出了。 2010年至今：PPI定基指数涨幅为零 市场经济实质上就是供需关系不断变化下的各种交易行为，按我的理解，交易大致可以分两类，一类是 现实经济下商品和服务的交易，另一类是虚拟经济下货币、有价证券及衍生品的交易。透过这些交易行 为和交易数据，可以对国内经济乃至全球经济有一个更深入的认识，或者 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rebound in tech stocks, with notable increases in share prices for major companies such as Meituan, JD.com, Alibaba, Kuaishou, and Tencent [1] - Alibaba's cloud division has announced the launch of an open-source large model, Qwen3.5-Plus, with an API pricing as low as 0.8 RMB per million tokens, indicating a competitive pricing strategy in the AI sector [1] - According to a report from Zhongyin International, the current AI market does not show signs of significant bubble characteristics, and AI investments are expected to enter a new phase by 2026 [1] Group 2 - Open Source Securities emphasizes the importance of AI commercialization and the expansion of application scenarios, suggesting that the demand for AI cloud services will continue to grow as model capabilities improve [1] - The rapid growth of domestic AI chips is noted, with Kunlun Chip officially starting its listing process in Hong Kong, which could further enhance the competitive landscape [1] - Recommended stocks benefiting from these trends include Alibaba, Pinduoduo, Baidu, and Tencent, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the evolving AI market [1]

大型科技股中，阿里巴巴-W涨2.99%，腾讯控股涨2.3%，京东集团-SW涨4.14%，小米集团-W涨 2.88%，网易-S涨3.4%，美团-W涨5.33%，快手-W涨3.38%，哔哩哔哩-W涨2.79%。 港股三大指数高开高走，目前均涨超2%，港股恒生指数涨2.26%，报27009.28点，恒生科技指数涨 3.34%，报5385.68点，国企指数涨2.38%，报9172.42点，红筹指数涨1.28%，报4440.59点。 据广发证券策略团队研究，自2018年之后，港股与美股之间的相关性显著回落，而与A股的相关性走 强，这意味着在内地市场风险偏好明显抬升的背景下，港股存在一定的"被动跟随"上涨可能。如果A股 在春节—两会区间出现强春季躁动，港股也可能会上涨，2024年与2025年，在A股春节后阶段表现较强 的背景下，港股同步出现阶段性上涨的情形。 中国银河证券回顾近十年港股市场春节前后的表现，结果显示：春节前一周，恒生指数、恒生科技指 数、恒生中国企业指数上涨的概率分别为70%、90%、70%；春节后一周，恒生指数、恒生科技指数、 恒生中国企业指数上涨的概率分别为60%、70%、70%。虽然上涨概率仍然较高， ...

腾讯理财通活期+7日年化收益率最高为1.1850%，最低为0.8410%，微信零钱通7日年化收益率最高为 1.0930%，最低为1.0220%，支付宝余额宝7日年化收益率最高为1.0990%，最低为1.0040%。 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index opened high, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.46% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.77% [1] - As of the report, the Hang Seng Tech Index had risen over 3%, currently at 5368.750 points, while the Hang Seng Index was up by 2% [1] Stock Movements - Tech stocks collectively opened higher, with notable increases: NetEase up 3%, Meituan up 2%, Alibaba nearly 2%, Tencent up 1%, and Kuaishou over 3% [3] - Semiconductor stocks also showed strength, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising by 4% and SMIC increasing by over 3% [3] - Gold stocks performed well, with China Gold International up nearly 7% and Shandong Gold up over 5% [3] Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included: - NetEase-S at 186.000, up 3.74% [4] - JD Health at 58.750, up 3.34% [4] - Kuaishou-W at 68.500, up 3.01% [4] - Meituan-W at 87.750, up 7.180% [4] - Other stocks like Tencent Music-SW and Alibaba-W also saw increases of 2.05% and 1.90%, respectively [5] Declines in Specific Stocks - Zhipu experienced significant declines, with a drop of over 20% at one point, and MINIMAX also fell by over 10%, although the declines narrowed by the time of reporting [6] - Zhipu's apology letter addressed issues related to the GLM-5 release, citing problems with transparency and upgrade mechanisms, which contributed to the stock's volatility [6]

Group 1 - The technology stocks showed a significant rebound in early trading, with Meituan-W (03690) rising by 5.26% to HKD 85 [1] - JD Group-SW (09618) increased by 4.53% to HKD 108.50 [1] - Alibaba-W (09988) saw an increase of 3.26%, reaching HKD 151.90 [1] - Kuaishou-W (01024) rose by 3.38% to HKD 68.75 [1] - Tencent (00700) experienced a 2.40% increase, trading at HKD 534.50 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The travel data during the Spring Festival showed strong performance, while the IEEPA tariff ruling and escalating Middle East tensions disturbed risk appetite. The AI competition accelerated, and the resilience of the US economy led to a decline in interest rate cut expectations [1][2][7] Group 1: Major Events and Market Trends - The US Supreme Court ruled the IEEPA tariffs illegal, prompting Trump to invoke the Trade Act of 1974, resulting in an average tariff rate that may not differ significantly from previous levels [2][8] - The technology sector continues to see a high level of interest with new AI and robotics products emerging [2][14] - The US economy remains resilient, with inflation pressures emerging, leading to a decline in interest rate cut expectations [2][23] Group 2: Asset Class Performance - During the Spring Festival, major asset classes showed divergence, with the Nasdaq, Korean index, and European stocks rising by 1.51%, 5.92%, and 2.44% respectively, while Hong Kong stocks weakened due to liquidity and competitive pressures [3][26] - The bond market showed mixed results, with US Treasury yields slightly rising while Japanese and German long-term bond yields fell [3][26] - Precious metals and oil performed strongly due to safe-haven demand, with gold and silver prices reaching $5104 and $84 per ounce, respectively, and oil prices rising to $71 per barrel [3][26] Group 3: Debt Market Outlook - The post-Spring Festival bond market will largely depend on the fundamentals, policy signals, supply and demand, and stock market performance [4][41] - The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile state, with limited space below 1.8% for the 10-year Treasury yield [4][41] - The demand side of the bond market is primarily driven by insurance and bank allocations, with a focus on the potential for structural opportunities in medium to short-term bonds [4][40] Group 4: Stock Market and Convertible Bonds - The stock market is expected to open slightly lower on the first trading day after the holiday, with a focus on tariff and trade issues, the Fed's interest rate decisions, and geopolitical concerns [5][42] - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain positive, with potential for a quick recovery after a slight dip [5][42] - Investors are advised to optimize their positions during the post-holiday low opening, particularly in sectors like AI applications and humanoid robots that may be undervalued due to market sentiment [5][48]

智通财经APP获悉，科网股全线回暖，截至发稿，美团-W(03690)涨5.14%，报84.9港元；京东集团- SW(09618)涨3.56%，报107.5港元；阿里巴巴-W(09988)涨2.65%，报151港元；快手-W(01024)涨 2.63%，报68.25港元；腾讯(00700)涨2.01%，报532.5港元。 开源证券则表示，关注AI商业化及应用场景拓展；开源模型能力持续提升下，AI云需求有望持续验 证，AI应用有望带动推理需求持续增长，国产AI芯片增长迅速，昆仑芯正式启动中国香港上市进程， 推荐阿里巴巴-W、拼多多，百度集团-SW，受益标的腾讯控股。 消息面上，阿里旗下阿里云宣布开源新一代千问Qwen3.5-Plus大模型，其API价格每百万Token低至0.8 元人民币。中银国际发布研报称，本轮AI行情尚未出现明显泡沫化特征，2026年AI投资有望进入产业 趋势下半场。 ...