证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 美元债双周报（26 年第 6 周） 弱于大市 景气回升难掩财政忧虑，美债曲线陡峭化博弈加剧 美国 1 月 ISM 数据显示，制造业与服务业景气度同步回升，经济动能明显改 善。制造业 PMI 从 47.9 大幅跃升至 52.6，显著高于预期，重返扩张区 间并创近几年新高，新订单与产出强劲反弹是主要拉动因素，显示企业 补库存与需求修复加快。不过，就业指数仍低于荣枯线，制造业用工恢 复偏慢，叠加物价支付指数回升，反映成本压力再度抬头。服务业方面， PMI 维持在 53.8 的阶段性高位，扩张态势稳健，商业活动表现较好，但 新订单增速放缓，就业几乎停滞于荣枯线附近，显示需求与用工修复并 不同步。同时，价格指数走高，提示服务业通胀压力有所回升。整体而 言，美国经济开年景气度改善明确，但就业恢复偏弱、成本压力上行， 结构性特征依然突出。 市场避险情绪升温，但美债需求并不强劲。在上周市场对美联储换帅导致 的流动性冲击以及 AI 对软件的替代影响的担忧而出现抛售时，美债价 格上涨幅度却相当温和，而且收益率曲线显著趋陡，10 年-2 年期限利 差逼近多年高位。这表明尽管市场存在避险情绪 ...

近日，人力资源社会保障部会同中央社会工作部、中央网信办、交通运输部、市场监管总局、国家邮政 局、全国总工会，就维护新就业形态劳动者权益，对美团、淘宝闪购、京东秒送、闪送、顺丰同城、盒 马、滴滴、T3出行、曹操出行、货拉拉、满帮、圆通速递、申通 快递、中通快递、韵达快递、极兔快 递等16家企业开展用工行政指导。会议要求有关企业全面落实用工主体责任，持续改进劳动管理，切实 保障好新就业形态劳动者权益。（新华社） ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 美元债双周报（26 年第 6 周） 弱于大市 景气回升难掩财政忧虑，美债曲线陡峭化博弈加剧 美国 1 月 ISM 数据显示，制造业与服务业景气度同步回升，经济动能明显改 善。制造业 PMI 从 47.9 大幅跃升至 52.6，显著高于预期，重返扩张区 间并创近几年新高，新订单与产出强劲反弹是主要拉动因素，显示企业 补库存与需求修复加快。不过，就业指数仍低于荣枯线，制造业用工恢 复偏慢，叠加物价支付指数回升，反映成本压力再度抬头。服务业方面， PMI 维持在 53.8 的阶段性高位，扩张态势稳健，商业活动表现较好，但 新订单增速放缓，就业几乎停滞于荣枯线附近，显示需求与用工修复并 不同步。同时，价格指数走高，提示服务业通胀压力有所回升。整体而 言，美国经济开年景气度改善明确，但就业恢复偏弱、成本压力上行， 结构性特征依然突出。 市场避险情绪升温，但美债需求并不强劲。在上周市场对美联储换帅导致 的流动性冲击以及 AI 对软件的替代影响的担忧而出现抛售时，美债价 格上涨幅度却相当温和，而且收益率曲线显著趋陡，10 年-2 年期限利 差逼近多年高位。这表明尽管市场存在避险情绪 ...

麦格理发表研报指，中通快递去年末季表现强劲，增长领先同业。根据其初步业绩，其中业务量按年增 9%；营收介乎按年增8%至19%之间，毛利率则在23%至28%的区间内。该行认为，在物流行业"反内 卷"的政策环境下，结合中通高质量且具性价比的价值定位，集团在捕捉客户价格偏好转移方面处于有 利地位。展望2026年，该行预测中通总包裹量将年增8%，而预期的行业增速为7%；在行业定价复苏及 其关键客户与退件零售策略利好下，平均单价预计将按年提升2分，至1.28元；又相信去年触底后，受 规模效应扩大与平均单价提升双重推动下，单位经济效益应持续改善。该行将中通美股目标价从18.4美 元一举升至26.6美元，评级上调至"跑赢大市"。 来源：滚动播报 ...

展望2026年，该行预测中通总包裹量将年增8%，而预期的行业增速为7%；在行业定价复苏及其关键客 户与退件零售策略利好下，平均单价预计将按年提升2分，至1.28元；又相信去年触底后，受规模效应 扩大与平均单价提升双重推动下，单位经济效益应持续改善。该行将中通美股目标价从18.4美元一举升 至26.6美元，评级上调至"跑赢大市"。 麦格理发表研报指，中通快递去年末季表现强劲，增长领先同业。根据其初步业绩，其中业务量按年增 9%；营收介乎按年增8%至19%之间，毛利率则在23%至28%的区间内。该行认为，在物流行业"反内 卷"的政策环境下，结合中通高质量且具性价比的价值定位，集团在捕捉客户价格偏好转移方面处于有 利地位。 ...

Group 1 - The discussion around whether express delivery services will be operational during the Spring Festival has garnered attention, with major companies like China Post, SF Express, and JD Logistics confirming they will maintain services during this period [1][2][3] - China Post will continue to provide services from February 15 to 23, allowing users to submit collection requests through various online channels, although there may be delays in collection and transportation times due to the holiday [2] - SF Express will implement a resource adjustment fee for certain shipments during the Spring Festival, charging between 0.1 to 1.5 yuan per kg for shipments over 20 kg from January 19 to February 15, and additional fees during the holiday period [2][4] Group 2 - YTO Express has announced it will ensure delivery services during the Spring Festival, with normal operations in most regions except for areas affected by third-party logistics disruptions or weather conditions [3] - JD Logistics is committed to providing stable logistics support during the Spring Festival, with its smart industrial park operating around the clock and a promise of same-day and next-day delivery services [4] - Other companies like Shentong Express and Zhongtong Express have also indicated they will adjust their operations based on local conditions, with Shentong suggesting users confirm specific delivery times to avoid disruptions [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On February 6, the overall capital situation was loose, with major repurchase rates declining; the bond market continued its positive trend; the main indices of the convertible bond market closed higher, and most convertible bond issues rose; yields on U.S. Treasuries of various maturities generally increased, and the yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [2] Summary by Directory I. Bond Market News (1) Domestic News - Premier Li Qiang chaired the tenth plenary meeting of the State Council, emphasizing promoting effective investment, using various funds and tools, and promoting major projects in key areas [4] - As of the end of January 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the 6th consecutive month to $3399.1 billion, and gold reserves increased for 15 consecutive months to 74.19 million ounces. The increase in foreign exchange reserves was due to factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset price changes [5] - Eight departments jointly re - emphasized the ban on virtual currency in China and put forward policy requirements for related businesses [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a regulatory guideline for the overseas issuance of asset - backed security tokens of domestic assets to prevent speculation risks [6][7] - The first meeting of the China - UK Financial Working Group was held in Beijing, reaching many practical cooperation results [7] (2) International News - In February 2026, the preliminary reading of the U.S. consumer confidence index was 57.3, higher than the January final value. The short - term inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, while the long - term inflation expectation rose slightly to 3.4% [8] - The U.S. and India reached a temporary trade framework. The U.S. will impose a 18% tariff on Indian goods, and India will purchase $500 billion of U.S. products in five years [9] - On February 6, international crude oil futures prices rose, with WTI March crude oil futures up 0.41% and Brent April crude oil futures up 0.74%. COMEX gold futures rose 1.96%. The NYMEX natural gas price fell 3.16% [10] II. Capital Situation (1) Open Market Operations - On February 6, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations of 31.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations of 300 billion yuan. With 477.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net capital withdrawal was 146 billion yuan [12] (2) Capital Interest Rates - On February 6, the capital situation was loose, and major repurchase rates declined. DR001 dropped 4.41bp to 1.275%, and DR007 dropped 2.08bp to 1.461% [13] III. Bond Market Dynamics (1) Interest - rate Bonds - Spot Bond Yield Trends: On February 6, the bond market continued its positive trend. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250016 dropped 0.60bp to 1.8020%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250220 dropped 1.55bp to 1.9625% [15] - Bond Tendering Situation: The 3 - year 25Jinchujin13 (Increment 10), 1 - year 26Fuxiguozhai01 (Re - issue), and 30 - year 26Fuxiguozhai02 (Re - issue) were issued, with their respective issuance scales, winning bid yields, full - field multiples, and marginal multiples provided [16] (2) Credit Bonds - Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies: On February 6, the trading price of one industrial bond, "23Chanrong11", deviated by more than 10%, falling more than 17% [16] - Credit Bond Events: Multiple companies announced events such as debt repayment issues, mergers and reorganizations, and bond issuance cancellations [19] (3) Convertible Bonds - Equity and Convertible Bond Indices: On February 6, the three major A - share indices fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index down 0.25%, 0.33%, and 0.73% respectively. The convertible bond market rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index up 0.75%, 0.56%, and 1.02% respectively [18][20] - Convertible Bond Tracking: On February 7, Shenergy Co., Ltd.'s convertible bond issuance was approved by the exchange. On February 6, some convertible bonds announced adjustments to conversion prices, early redemptions, or approaching redemption conditions [24] (4) Overseas Bond Markets - U.S. Bond Market: On February 6, yields on U.S. Treasuries of various maturities generally increased. The 2 - year yield rose 3bp to 3.50%, and the 10 - year yield rose 1bp to 4.22%. The 2/10 - year and 5/30 - year yield spreads narrowed by 2bp. The 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury (TIPS) break - even inflation rate rose 2bp to 2.34% [23][25][26] - European Bond Market: On February 6, the yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends. The German, French, and Italian yields rose 1bp, the Spanish yield remained unchanged, and the British yield dropped 5bp [27] - Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds: As of the close on February 6, the prices of some Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds rose or fell, with details on the daily and monthly changes, credit subjects, bond balances, and yields provided [29]

Group 1: Company Overview - Nanya Technology (688519.SH) is expected to achieve revenues of 49.48 billion, 61.75 billion, and 73.41 billion CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.24 billion, 5.11 billion, and 7.83 billion CNY respectively, leading to a target market value of 229.80 billion CNY and a target price of 97.88 CNY for 2026, receiving a "Buy" rating [2][7]. - Shunxin Agriculture (000860.SZ) is projected to have revenues of 72.6 billion, 79.6 billion, and 86.7 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of -1.5 billion, 0.6 billion, and 1.7 billion CNY, reflecting a significant decline in 2025 but recovery in subsequent years, and is rated "Accumulate" [4][21]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The demand for high-end CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 40% from 2024 to 2027, driven by AI and high-frequency applications, although the market is currently dominated by a few key players [8][9]. - The white liquor industry is facing significant pressure, with production showing negative growth and a shift in consumer preferences towards quality over quantity, leading to intensified competition and a focus on value rather than scale [20][21]. - The asset tokenization market is entering a new era of compliance management, providing more diverse financing channels for companies with quality underlying assets, which may optimize their financing structures and enhance compliance credibility [15][17].

Group 1: Domestic News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, emphasized the importance of promoting effective investment to stabilize economic growth and enhance development momentum during the 10th plenary meeting on February 6 [2] - The meeting discussed innovative policy measures to optimize the use of central budget investments, ultra-long special bonds, and local government special bonds, focusing on key areas such as infrastructure and emerging industries [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange and Monetary Policy - As of January 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $339.91 billion, up by $41.2 billion from December 2025, while gold reserves rose to 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces [3] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 31.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40% and a 14-day reverse repo operation of 300 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 146 billion yuan on February 6 [8][9] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed positive sentiment with a decline in yields; the 10-year government bond yield fell by 0.60 basis points to 1.8020% and the 10-year policy bank bond yield decreased by 1.55 basis points to 1.9625% [10][11] - The secondary market for credit bonds experienced significant price deviations, with one industrial bond, "23产融11," dropping over 17% [12] Group 4: Equity and Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market saw major indices rise, with the China Convertible Bond Index increasing by 0.75% and trading volume reaching 88.755 billion yuan, up by 14.689 billion yuan from the previous trading day [20][21] - Notable individual convertible bonds included 泰瑞转债, which rose over 10%, while 新致转债 fell over 9% [21] Group 5: International Trade Developments - The U.S. and India reached a temporary trade framework, reducing tariffs on Indian goods to 18% and committing to a $500 billion purchase of U.S. products over five years [6] - The U.S. consumer confidence index slightly increased to 57.3 in February 2026, while long-term inflation expectations rose marginally to 3.4% [5]

Macro Research - The recent significant drop in gold prices is primarily due to previous irrational surges, high leverage, and crowded trading conditions, which does not alter the long-term bullish trend for gold. Mid to long-term investment opportunities in gold should still be considered [2][3] Social Services Industry Research - The optimization of vacation systems, improvement in cultural tourism supply, and acceleration of local asset securitization are expected to create investment opportunities in the scenic area sector. Three main lines for investment are suggested: focus on transportation improvements, resource integration expectations, and new project launches [3][4] Cosmetics Industry Research - The cosmetics market is expected to continue steady growth in 2026, driven by product innovation and the rise of domestic brands. It is recommended to selectively invest in high-growth companies and those with recovery potential due to product and channel changes. Specific companies to consider include 若羽臣, 倍加洁, 毛戈平, 林清轩, and 上美股份 for strong fundamentals, and 贝泰妮, 珀莱雅, and others for recovery potential [6][7][8]