Core Insights - The aviation and airport sector experienced a 2.16% increase on September 17, with China Eastern Airlines leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13215.46, up 1.16% [1] Stock Performance - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 4.20, up 4.48% with a trading volume of 2.43 million shares and a turnover of 1.007 billion [1] - Xiamen Airport (600897) saw a slight decline of 0.14%, closing at 14.70 with a trading volume of 29,500 shares [2] - The highest gainers included China Eastern Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, and Southern Airlines, with respective increases of 4.48%, 3.03%, and 2.98% [1][2] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net inflow of 106 million in main funds, while retail funds had a net inflow of 103 million [2] - The main funds showed a net outflow of 210 million, indicating a mixed sentiment among institutional investors [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - China Eastern Airlines had a net outflow of 50.94 million from main funds but a net inflow of 34.51 million from retail investors [3] - China Southern Airlines experienced a net inflow of 6.64 million from main funds, indicating positive retail sentiment despite overall mixed capital flow [3] - Xiamen Airport faced a significant net outflow of 15.59 million from main funds, suggesting weaker institutional interest [3]

智通财经9月17日讯（编辑 胡家荣）港股三大指数集体走强。截至收盘，恒生指数涨1.78%，报26908.39点；科技指数涨4.22%，报6334.24点；国企指数涨 2.24%，报9596.77点。 注：恒生指数的表现 | . I | | --- | | 0001 F 122 173183 27111. 0213.22 B23.24 | | 6322. 65 | | 6261. 40 | | 1 6200. 16 | | 6138.91 | | 6077.66 | | 6018. 77 | | 5957.52 | | 5896. 27 | | 5835.02 | | -4-00 | 注：科技指数的表现 对于今日市场表现，美联储降息预期成为市场核心驱动力量。据CME FedWatch工具，市场对美联储9月重启降息的预期概率超过90%。降息预期促进了全球 资金流动性释放，推动了中国资产相对收益。 恒生科技指数成为市场领头羊，涨幅超4%，其点位创近四年新高。截至收盘，该指数成份股中，百度集团-SW(09888.HK)、阿里巴巴-W(09988.HK)、京东 集团-SW(09618.HK)分别上涨15.72%、5.2 ...

港股三大指数全天呈现单边上涨行情，市场做多情绪尤其高涨。在权重科技股的助力下，恒生科技指数 大幅收涨4.33%报6334.24点，恒生指数涨1.78%逼近27000点大关，国企指数涨2.24%，三者均刷新阶段 新高价。盘面上，大型科技股强势带动大市造好，自研芯片业务获看好，百度飙涨近16%、阿里巴巴涨 超5%，京东、美团、腾讯、小米均走强；报道称中芯国际据正在测试中国首款国产DUV光刻机，半导 体芯片股全天维持强势行情，龙头中芯国际劲升超7%创历史新高价；国庆中秋日均机票预订量增长超 25%，航空股拉升，中国国航涨超7%，苹果概念股、风电股、家电股、光伏股、内房股、重型机械 股、濠赌股、纸业股纷纷上涨。另一方面，分析师称黄金处于超买区间，警惕短期回调风险，黄金股领 衔有色金属股走低，生物医药股普遍回调走弱，建材水泥股、钢铁股、香港本地银行股多数表现低迷。 (格隆汇) ...

Group 1 - China National Airlines (601111) shares increased by over 5%, currently up 5.73% at HKD 5.72, with a trading volume of HKD 349 million [1] - The company announced that by August 2025, the combined passenger turnover (measured in revenue passenger kilometers) is expected to rise year-on-year [1] - Passenger capacity input (measured in available seat kilometers) is projected to increase by 2.3% year-on-year, while passenger turnover is expected to grow by 3.2% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Domestic passenger capacity input is expected to decline by 1.2% year-on-year, with passenger turnover remaining flat [1] - International passenger capacity input is projected to rise by 12.6% year-on-year, with passenger turnover increasing by 12.9% year-on-year [1] - Regional passenger capacity input is expected to decrease by 5.7% year-on-year, with passenger turnover declining by 2.2% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - The average passenger load factor is 83.7%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Domestic routes are expected to see a load factor increase of 1.1 percentage points, while international routes are projected to rise by 0.2 percentage points, and regional routes by 2.9 percentage points [1] Group 4 - Huatai Securities reported that the summer travel season has seen strong demand for leisure travel, supporting high load factors for airlines, although business travel remains constrained, affecting overall ticket prices [1] - Demand for business travel is expected to recover in September, with a lower base, potentially improving airline ticket pricing data [1] - The combined National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in 2025 is anticipated to drive high tourism market activity, supported by policy, capacity assurance, and upgraded demand, benefiting the accommodation and transportation sectors [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the aviation industry is experiencing low growth in supply, while passenger load factors have improved significantly month-on-month in August [3][12] - The cautious approach of airlines towards capacity deployment is influenced by the unsatisfactory load factors in July and the ongoing trend of industry self-regulation [4][5][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining supply constraints to achieve a balance between supply and demand, which is crucial for alleviating operational pressures on airlines [5][21] Summary by Sections Domestic Routes - In August, the capacity deployment for domestic routes by listed airlines increased by approximately 1.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month, indicating a slowdown in growth [4][17] - The overall passenger load factor for listed companies improved by about 0.9 percentage points year-on-year and 3.3 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting a recovery in demand during the peak season [4][35] - Airlines are shifting their focus from maximizing load factors to balancing pricing and volume, prioritizing profitability over market share [4][42] International Routes - For international routes, capacity deployment increased by approximately 14.6% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month in August, with load factors remaining stable [6][57] - Notably, airlines based in Shanghai, such as Spring Airlines and Eastern Airlines, saw significant improvements in load factors, exceeding 4% month-on-month [6][59] - The report indicates that the demand in the Shanghai region is relatively strong, as evidenced by the higher growth rates in international passenger throughput compared to other major airports [6][71] Industry Policy Changes and Investment Recommendations - The publication of the "Self-Regulation Agreement for Air Passenger Transport" by the China Air Transport Association in August is seen as a foundational step towards curbing market chaos and improving revenue levels [7][16] - The report suggests that the ongoing self-regulation efforts are essential for achieving long-term balance in the industry, with larger airlines expected to benefit more significantly from these changes [7][16]

消息面上，中国国航发布公告，2025年8月，公司及所属子公司(以下简称"集团")合并旅客周转量(按收 入客公里计)同比上升。客运运力投入(按可用座位公里计)同比上升2.3%，旅客周转量同比上升3.2%。 其中，国内客运运力投入同比下降1.2%，旅客周转量同比持平;国际客运运力投入同比上升12.6%，旅客 周转量同比上升12.9%;地区客运运力投入同比下降5.7%，旅客周转量同比下降2.2%。平均客座率 83.7%，同比上升0.8个百分点。其中，国内航线同比上升1.1个百分点，国际航线同比上升0.2个百分 点，地区航线同比上升2.9个百分点。 华泰证券发布研报称，暑运整体来看，因私出行较为旺盛，支撑了航司较高的客座率，但公商务受限， 拖累了整体票价表现。9月公商务出行需求或将回暖，且基数下降，航司票价数据或有改善。此外， 2025年国庆中秋假期合并，中航证券指出，在政策支持、运力保障与需求升级三重驱动下，今年十一黄 金周旅游市场有望延续高景气，带动住宿、交通等链条全方位释放。 智通财经APP获悉，中国国航(00753)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.73%，报5.72港元，成交额3.49亿港元。 ...

Core Insights - The airline industry is experiencing high passenger load factors and a slowdown in capacity growth, with a focus on increasing international routes [1][4] - Domestic flight turnover has shown steady growth, while international turnover has significantly recovered to pre-pandemic levels [1][4] - Average ticket prices have seen a narrowing decline, indicating potential improvements in revenue per seat for airlines [2][5] Supply and Demand - The industry passenger load factor remains high, with a year-on-year capacity growth slowdown. As of July 2025, the industry’s ASK and RPK increased by 5.5% and 6.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a load factor of 84.5%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Domestic flight turnover increased by 3.9% year-on-year, while international and regional flights have returned to 100.3% of 2019 levels [1] Ticket Pricing - Average ticket prices for the year-to-date (as of September 15, 2025) are 864 RMB, down 8.8% year-on-year. The average ticket price during the summer travel period in July and August fell by 8.8% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively, with a narrowing decline in August [2] Fuel and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation fuel in Q3 decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with the domestic aviation fuel price dropping to 5545 RMB per ton in September, down 7.6% year-on-year [3] - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, with the exchange rate moving from 7.1884 RMB at the end of 2024 to 7.1027 RMB by September 16, 2025 [3] Operational Performance - From January to August 2025, most airlines saw slight increases in domestic capacity, with Spring Airlines showing a growth rate of 4.7%. The passenger load factor for major airlines has shown significant year-on-year increases, with Eastern Airlines up by 3.5 percentage points [4] - In August, Air China had the highest net increase in aircraft, adding six planes, while other airlines also reported net increases [4] Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to see improvements in unit revenue due to high passenger load factors and narrowing ticket price declines. The implementation of measures to reduce price competition may further support ticket price recovery [5] - Airlines such as China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines are recommended for investment focus [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a divergence in the Hong Kong stock indices, with a high probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][6] - The Hong Kong stock market saw mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.03%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 0.02%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.56% [2] - The report highlights a significant increase in market turnover, reaching HKD 294.07 billion, with short-selling accounting for 12.75% of total trading volume [2] Group 2 - The report anticipates a 7.0% year-on-year increase in domestic tourism revenue per person during the National Day holiday, with an 8.3% increase in the number of trips [9] - It notes that the average spending per trip is expected to decline slightly by 1%, a reduction from earlier quarters [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of customer spending recovery as a key indicator for the tourism sector's performance [8] Group 3 - The report identifies strong performance in the consumer sector, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Ctrip Group (up 4.09%) and Meituan (up 3.03%) [4] - The report also highlights a robust performance in the robotics sector, driven by the announcement of an open-source architecture by Yush Robot, leading to significant stock price increases for companies like DCH Holdings (up 16.74%) [4] - Conversely, the internet healthcare sector experienced declines, with stocks like Ping An Good Doctor down by 5.44% [5] Group 4 - The report indicates that the U.S. stock market experienced a collective decline, with the S&P 500 down by 0.13% and the Nasdaq down by 0.07% [6] - It mentions strong retail sales data in the U.S., with a 0.6% month-on-month increase in overall retail sales, which alleviated recession concerns [6] - The report notes that the market is anticipating a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation transportation industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor since the beginning of 2025, with a low growth rate in domestic capacity and a focus on increasing international routes. The net growth rate of airline fleets is below 3%, indicating a tight supply situation. The passenger load factor has improved compared to the same period last year and 2019, particularly in domestic routes. Domestic turnover has shown steady growth, while international turnover has significantly recovered to levels close to 2019 [13][14] - During the summer travel season, the industry experienced a high passenger load factor, and the decline in ticket prices has narrowed. This is expected to lead to a significant improvement in airlines' unit revenue. Additionally, the implementation of measures to curb "involution" and the "Self-Regulation Convention" by the China Air Transport Association is anticipated to reduce malicious price competition, potentially leading to a recovery in ticket prices and further boosting airlines' unit revenue [3][14] - The average ticket price in China for 2025 has been 864 yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year. The average ticket prices during the summer travel season in July and August were down 8.8% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively, with a narrowing decline in August compared to the previous month [4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for airlines, particularly focusing on Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [3][14] 2. Capacity Growth and Passenger Load Factor - The industry has seen a high passenger load factor with a slowdown in capacity growth. In July 2025, the industry’s ASK and RPK increased by 5.5% and 6.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a passenger load factor of 84.5%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [18][22] 3. Ticket Prices - The decline in ticket prices has narrowed, with the average ticket price in September showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%. The average ticket price for the first half of September was down 3.8% year-on-year [4][30] 4. Fuel Prices and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation fuel in Q3 decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with the domestic aviation fuel price in September dropping to 5545 yuan per ton, down 7.6% year-on-year. The exchange rate of the RMB has appreciated since the beginning of 2025 [5][42]

智通财经APP获悉，航空股继续走高，截至发稿，中国国航(00753)涨4.99%，报5.68港元；南方航空 (01055)涨3.88%，报4.02港元；东方航空(00670)涨2.29%，报3.13港元。 消息面上，据央视网报道，2025年国庆中秋假期合并，10月1日至10月8日放假八天，今年假期旅游热度 高涨。据航旅纵横数据，截至9月13日，今年中秋国庆假期国内航线机票预订量超452万张，日均机票预 订量较去年同期增长超25%。截至9月13日，今年中秋国庆假期的出入境航线机票预订量已超129万张， 日均机票预订量比去年同期增长约14%。 申万宏源指出，8月迎来暑运旺季高峰，航空市场运力运量稳步增长。继续看好航空板块，供给逻辑确 定性强，预计未来3-5年行业机队供给增速趋缓，需求端具备弹性，客运量和客座率持续增长均已在相 对高位，可关注后续民航"反内卷"下票价回暖信号及趋势。同时，在外部油汇变化配合下，航空公司能 够释放较大业绩提升空间。 ...