Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of Maersk in the first week of the second half of July remained unchanged, delaying the previous market expectation that the freight rate would peak in the first half of July. The 08 contract has partially repaired the expected difference, and the market is still searching for the peak [1][5]. - The supply and demand of the US route increased simultaneously in the early stage, and the supply recovered rapidly. The freight rates from the US East and West coasts have declined from their highs but are showing signs of stabilization [3]. - Since the current freight rate is likely to be searching for the peak, the off - season EC2410 contract can be sold for hedging at high prices during the freight rate decline [6]. - The trading strategy includes a volatile main contract and a long - December and short - October spread strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of July 1, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 87,953 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 96,679 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1341.50, 1187.80, 1322.10, 1904.90, 1383.80, and 1538.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary. For example, Maersk's price for week 29 from Shanghai to Rotterdam is 1780/2980; HPL's quotes for the first half of July, the second half of July, and the first half of August are 2035/3235, 2235/3535, and 2235/3535 respectively. Different alliances and shipping companies also have different price quotes [2]. - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) price announced on June 27 was 2030.00 US dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West) was 2578.00 US dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 4717.00 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on July 1 was 2123.24 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1619.19 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In the early stage of the US route, the supply and demand increased simultaneously, and the carriers actively restored capacity in June and July. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the US East and West coasts was 350,000 TEU in June, 243,400 TEU in May, 359,000 TEU in July, and 299,000 TEU in August [3]. - The monthly average weekly capacity from Shanghai to European base ports was 261,900 TEU in July and 269,900 TEU in August. There were 8 blank sailings in July (5 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 2 blank sailings in August (both by the OA Alliance). The capacity in July decreased compared to the previous week's statistics mainly because the MSC (ALBATROS) route skipped Shanghai from week 28 to week 31, with the previously allocated ship capacity being about 15,000 TEU [4]. - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 28, 2025, 135 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. Among them, 41 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 615,000 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [7]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors include Iran's indecision on whether to hold nuclear negotiations with the US and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's meeting with US President Trump at the White House on July 7 [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - There is no specific content directly related to demand and European economy analysis in the provided text other than the above - mentioned freight rate and capacity information which is also affected by demand and economic factors.

黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2508 | 1,904.9 | 7.80% | 68,840 | 40,476 | 1,248 | 1.70 | | 0.83 | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,383.8 | 3.28% | 21,666 | 31,506 | 1,385 | 0.69 | | 0.33 | | | EC2512 | 1,538.0 | 2.67% | 3,471 | 6,186 | 359 | 0.56 | | 0.28 | | | | | 本期 | | 2025/6/30 | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS： 欧洲航线 | | 2, ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2506 had a closing price of 1888.5 with a 0.04% increase, a basis of 234.7, a trading volume of 225, an open interest of 2053, and a decrease of 78 in open interest [2]. - EC2508 had a closing price of 1761.4 with a 2.42% decrease, a basis of 361.8, a trading volume of 32689, an open interest of 39228, and an increase of 168 in open interest [2]. - EC2510 had a closing price of 1339.0 with a 0.99% increase, a basis of 784.2, a trading volume of 10051, an open interest of 30121, and an increase of 401 in open interest [2]. - EC2512 had a closing price of 1500.0 with a 0.33% increase, a basis of 623.2, a trading volume of 1654, an open interest of 5827, and a decrease of 1339 in open interest [2]. - EC2602 had a closing price of 1307.8 with a 0.71% decrease, a basis of 815.4, a trading volume of 564, an open interest of 3757, and a decrease of 101 in open interest [2]. - EC2604 had a closing price of 1169.8 with a 0.07% decrease, a basis of 953.4, a trading volume of 928, an open interest of 5529, and a decrease of 42 in open interest [2]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The spread between EC2506 - 2508 was 127.1 (previous day), 82.7 (two days ago), 126.0 currently, with a month - on - month change of 44.4 and a week - on - week change of 11.0 [2]. - The spread between EC2508 - 2510 was 422.4 (previous day), 479.1 (two days ago), 434.3 currently, with a month - on - month change of - 56.7 and a week - on - week change of - 45.0 [2]. - The spread between EC2506 - 2510 was 561.8 (two days ago), 560.3 currently, with a month - on - month change of - 12.3 and a week - on - week change of - 34.0 [2]. - The spread between EC2510 - 2512 was - 161.0 (previous day), - 169.1 (two days ago), - 163.5 currently, with a month - on - month change of 8.1 and a week - on - week change of - 8.1 [2]. - The spread between EC2512 - 2602 was 192.2 (previous day), 177.8 (two days ago), 171.7 currently, with a month - on - month change of 14.4 and a week - on - week change of 41.3 [2]. Shipping Indexes - SCHIS was updated weekly, with a value of 2123.24 on 2025/6/30, a previous value of 1937.14, and an increase of 9.61% [2]. - SCFI was updated hourly, with a value of 2030 on 2025/6/27, a previous value of 1835, and an increase of 10.63% [2]. - CCFI was updated hourly, with a value of 1640.72 on 2025/6/27, a previous value of 1578.6, and an increase of 3.94% [2]. - NCFI was updated weekly, with a value of 1442.95 on 2025/6/27, a previous value of 1299.58, and an increase of 11.03% [2]. - TCI was updated daily, with a value of 957.21 on 2025/6/30, a previous value of 937.12, and an increase of 2.14% [2]. Capacity Arrangement - In July and August 2025 (tentatively), the average weekly capacity was 299,000 TEU and 305,000 TEU respectively. The first week of July had good cargo intake but no over - booking. The capacity in the second and fourth weeks was neutral, while the third week was high, which could suppress freight rates. In week 33, there was one new blank sailing, and there were ship delays for PA & MSC [2]. Recent European Line Quotations - Shipping companies announced price increases for July. MSK opened at $3400, and others were mostly between $3500 - $4000. In the first week, some shipping companies reduced prices, and MSK dropped to $3100, with the final average price of shipping companies at $3400 (equivalent to 2400 points on the futures market). In the second week, MSK opened at $2900, and the current average quotation of shipping companies was equivalent to 2300 points on the futures market [3]. News - On June 30, the Qatari Foreign Ministry stated that the cease - fire negotiation in the Gaza Strip had not restarted, and relevant parties were in contact to determine the schedule and plan for the new round of negotiation. Qatar was pressuring relevant parties to decouple the cease - fire negotiation from the provision of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip and accused Israel of preventing humanitarian aid from entering the Gaza Strip [4]. - On June 30, the Iranian Armed Forces stated that they were ready to respond to any new acts of aggression [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a clear industry investment rating but offers trading strategies and potential price ranges for specific contracts [14] Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate index SCFIS increased by 9.6% on June 30, exceeding expectations. The current 08 contract is at a discount to the spot freight rate in early July. Ship - owners' pricing strategies vary, with Maersk adopting a low - price strategy, while the OA and PA alliances may raise prices in mid - July. If the spot freight rate rises in late July, the 2508 contract may experience a small subsidy water market; if the price increase fails, the 2508 contract's neutral valuation is around 1750 points. The strategy is to short the 2510 contract at high prices, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points [11][12][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - Yesterday, the container shipping index fluctuated weakly. The main 2508 contract closed at 1761.4 points, down 1.92%; the second - main 2510 contract closed at 1339.0 points, up 0.31%. The EC2506 final delivery settlement price was 1919.3 points [11] 2. Freight Index Data - On June 30, the SCFIS index was reported at 2123.24 points, a 9.6% increase. The index converted to spot freight is about $3050/FEU, corresponding to the average FAK of shipping companies in late June. The FAK of shipping companies in early July is between $2900 - $3640/FEU, with an average of about $3400/FEU, corresponding to an SCFIS index of around 2380 points in early July [11] 3. Spot Freight Data - Maersk lowered its price by $200/FEU in the second week of July, while other shipping companies' list prices did not follow the large - scale price cut. The OA alliance's FAK price is between $3500 - $3560/FEU, the PA alliance's list price is between $3300 - $3400/FEU, and MSC's NAC price in early July is $3640/FEU [12] 4. Fundamental Data - In July, there was 1 additional blank sailing and 1 additional pending voyage compared to last week. In August, the number of blank sailings remains at 4, and the number of pending voyages is revised down from 3 to 1. If pending voyages are not considered, the average weekly capacity in August is 30.6 million TEU/week; if considered, it rises to 31 million TEU/week. It is expected that the space for shipping companies to actively reduce capacity in August is relatively limited [13][14] 5. Market Outlook and Strategy - Due to the incomplete start of Christmas cargo exports and concentrated shipments from long - term contract customers, the cargo volume is expected to have a normal seasonal increase in July, with a possible turning point at the end of July. The increase in capacity in July is roughly equivalent to the historical increase in cargo volume. The strategy is to short the 2510 contract at high prices, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The settlement price for the June contract is determined, and attention should be paid to Maersk's first - week quotation in the second half of July. There is a possibility that the freight rate peaked in the first half of July, and the EC2410 contract in the off - season can be sold for hedging when the price is high [1][3][5] - Geopolitically, China will accelerate rare - earth exports to the US, and the US will cancel a series of restrictive measures against China. The freight rates on the US routes are stabilizing after a decline from their high levels [2] - The freight rates on the Shanghai - Europe routes are in a state of correction in the first half of July, and there is a game about when the freight rate will peak in the August contract [4][5] - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries [7] - The trading strategy includes a volatile main contract in the unilateral market and a long - December, short - October strategy in the arbitrage market [7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of July 1, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 86,515 lots, and the daily trading volume is 46,152 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1307.80, 1169.80, 1888.50, 1761.40, 1339.00, and 1500.00 respectively [6] 2. Spot Price - On the online quotation for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route: Maersk's price in the second week of July is 1740/2900 (down $200/FEU from the previous period and now up to 1770/2960); HPL's quotation for the first half of July is 2035/3235, and for the second half is 2435/3835. Other shipping companies also have corresponding quotations [1] - For the Shanghai - US East and West routes, Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in the second week of the first half of July is 1586/2245 (compared to 4296/5360 in the first half of June), and the Shanghai - New York price is $4120/FEU (compared to $6410/FEU in the first half of June) [2] - The SCFIS on June 16, 23, and 30 are 1697.63, 1937.14, and 2123.24 points respectively, and the June contract settlement price is 1919.34 points [3] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The average weekly capacity on the Shanghai - European base port route in July is 261,900 TEU, and in August is 269,900 TEU. There are 8 blank sailings in July and 2 in August. The decrease in capacity in July is mainly due to the skipping of Shanghai ports by MSC's ALBATROS route [3] - As of June 28, 2025, 135 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. Among them, 41 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 615,000 TEU and 6 ships over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [7] 4. Supply Chain No specific content for in - depth summary is provided other than the list of related figures. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific content for in - depth summary is provided other than the list of related figures.

FICC日报 | 2025-06-26 08合约计价7月上半月运价见顶，关注下周船司7月下半月报 价情况 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹，7月第一周价格1900/3180，7月第二周价格开出为1740/2900（较前期下 降200美元/FEU,目前涨至1760/2940）；HPL 7月上半月船期报价2035/3235，7月下半月船期报价2435/3835。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 上海-鹿特丹7月份上半月船期报价2180/3640；ONE上海-鹿特丹7月上半月船期报价 2914/3343，7月下半月船期报价2914/3343；HMM上海-鹿特丹7月上半月价格1915/3400. Ocean Alliance：COSCO上海-鹿特丹 6月下半月船期报价2625/4225；CMA 上海-鹿特丹7月上半月船期报价 2035/3645；EMC7月上半月船期报价2555/3860；OOCL 7月份第一周船期价格2100/3500。 地缘端：一名以色列官员称，以色列暂缓派遣人质谈判小组前往埃及或卡塔尔与哈马斯进行谈判，因为双方之间 仍然存在根本分歧，阻碍 ...

资料来源：同花顺 iFind，Geek Rate，公司官网，国泰君安期货研究 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2506 | 1,885.3 | -0.21% | 783 | 2,491 | -285 | 0.31 | 0.42 | | | EC2508 | 1,740.2 | -3.07% | 50,789 | 43,528 | -1,263 | 1.17 | 1.60 | | | EC2510 | 1,292.8 | -2.31% | 12,394 | 31,546 | -75 | 0.39 | 0.68 | | | | 本 期 | | 2025/6/23 | | 单 位 | | 周涨幅 | | | SCFIS： 欧洲航线 | | 1,937.14 | | | 点 | | 14.1% | | 运 价 | SCFIS： 美西航线 | | 2,083.46 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 25 日 集运指数（欧线）：偏弱运行，10 空单酌情减仓 止盈 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2506 | 1,888.1 | 0.16% | 1,178 | 2,776 | -585 | 0.42 | | 0.15 | | 期货 | EC2508 | 1,772.0 | -7.00% | 71,614 | 44,791 | -2,262 | 1.60 | | 1.50 | | | EC2510 | 1,304.6 | -5.53% | 21,428 | 31,621 | 107 | 0.68 | | 0.49 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Shipping companies are attempting to increase freight rates in the first half of July, and attention should be paid to the final implementation. The US - China trade route has seen a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with freight rates in the East and West of the US reaching a high and potentially peaking. The European route has a downward pressure on capacity in June, and there is an expectation of price increases in August. Ship delays have a negative impact on the SCFIS, and the Israel - Iran conflict has a relatively small direct impact on container shipping [1][3][4][7]. - The recommended strategy is for the main contract to fluctuate, and for arbitrage, go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 12 contract and short on the 10 contract [9]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Online quotes show that multiple shipping companies have reported higher freight rates for July. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 26 was 1705/2870, and in the first week of July it was 2040/3400 [1]. - Geopolitically, US Vice - President Pence said Trump might take action against Iran's nuclear program, but no specific details were given [2]. - The US - China trade route has seen a rapid increase in demand due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. Carriers are actively restoring capacity, with the average weekly capacity in the remaining two weeks of June being 321,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, and 350,000 TEU in July. However, freight rates in the East and West of the US may have peaked [3]. - In June, the capacity pressure on the European route decreased. The average weekly capacity in the remaining two weeks of June was about 236,500 TEU, and there were 5 blank sailings in July and 1 in August [4]. - Ship delays have dragged down the SCFIS on June 16th and are expected to continue to have an impact on June 23rd. The 06 contract's delivery settlement price is expected to be around 1940 points [5]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has a greater impact on oil transportation and a relatively small direct impact on container shipping [6]. - There is an expectation of price increases in August as it is a traditional peak season and the statistical capacity in July is relatively low. It is recommended to focus on the peak time of European route freight rates in 2025 and the subsequent downward slope of freight rates. Currently, shipping companies are trying to increase freight rates in July and August [7]. Futures Prices - As of June 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 88,862 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 93,114 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied, such as the EC2602 contract at 1430.20, the EC2604 contract at 1243.80, etc. [8] Spot Prices - On June 13, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1844.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 4120.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 6745.00 US dollars/FEU. On June 16, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1697.63 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2908.68 points [8] Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a major year for container ship deliveries. As of June 15, 2025, 126 container ships with a total capacity of 1.004 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 37 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 557,200 TEU and 6 ships above 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [8] Supply Chain - Ship delays have affected the SCFIS, and the conflict between Israel and Iran may have an impact on shipping routes, but the direct impact on container shipping is relatively small [5][6] Demand and European Economy - No specific analysis of demand and European economy is provided in the content other than the potential impact on shipping demand and freight rates due to geopolitical and trade factors [2][3]

发出 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹26周价格1635/2730；HPL 6月下半月船期报价1835/2935，7月上半月船期 报价2635/4435。 FICC日报 | 2025-06-13 马士基6月最后一周价格开出，关注本周是否有7月份涨价函 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价1940/3240；ONE上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价 2571/2937；HMM6月下半月上海-鹿特丹价格1717/3004。 Ocean Alliance：COSCO上海-鹿特丹 6月下半月船期报价2625/4225；CMA 6月上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价 1861/3297，7月份船期报价2385/4345；EMC6月下半月船期报价2555/3610；OOCL 6月下半月报价1850/3100. 部分船司宣布6月份下半月涨价函，MSC 6月份下半月涨价函价格2340/3900（前期6月上半月涨价函价格 1920/3200）。 地缘端：美国总统特朗普：希望避免与伊朗发生冲突。伊朗将不得不进行更艰难的谈判。据AXIOS网站：美 ...