青岛银行（002948.SZ）2025 年度业绩快报点评 业绩高增，质量优异 glmszqdatemark 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 28 日收盘价） 推荐 首次评级 当前价格： 4.63 元 [Table_Author] | 分析师 王先爽 | | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525120014 | | 邮箱： wangxianshuang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 乔丹 | | 执业证书： S0590526010003 | | 邮箱： qiaodan@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -10% 7% 23% 40% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/1 青岛银行 沪深300 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 13,498 | 14,573 | 16,046 | 17,636 | | 增长率（%） | 8.2 | 8.0 | 10. ...

Market Overview - The market showed significant divergence today, with traditional blue-chip sectors like liquor and real estate surging, leading to a substantial rise in the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, while technology sectors such as semiconductors and chips weakened, resulting in notable declines in the STAR Market and ChiNext Index [1] - The total market turnover reached 3.2 trillion yuan, an increase of over 200 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with more than 3,500 stocks declining [1] Key Signals - Three major changes in the market were noted: 1. The simultaneous rise of real estate and liquor stocks indicates potential structural volatility as the market rotates towards these rebound assets [1] 2. The recent surge in commodities, including gold, reflects liquidity trends, while cryptocurrencies have remained relatively subdued, suggesting inflation expectations may significantly impact AI and computing power [1] 3. The unexpected performance of government bonds, particularly the strong showing of 30-year treasury futures, indicates a complex narrative in the market, suggesting that the rotation is not strictly binary [1] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks, particularly liquor and retail, saw a significant afternoon rally, with Kweichow Moutai rising by 8% and several stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - Precious metals and oil and gas stocks experienced volatility but ultimately rallied, with China Gold achieving five consecutive limit-ups and Hunan Gold four consecutive limit-ups [1] - AI application concepts surged, with multiple stocks like Sai Group and Tiandi Online hitting the daily limit [1] - The banking sector also saw gains, with Qingdao Bank hitting the daily limit, while semiconductor, military, and automotive sectors faced the largest declines [1] Fund Flow - Major funds focused on sectors such as advertising, software development, and liquor, with significant net inflows into stocks like BlueFocus, Kweichow Moutai, and iFlytek [3] Future Outlook - Short-term market trends indicate a continued oscillation, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to maintain an upward trajectory, although space for growth before the Spring Festival appears limited [2][8] - The market sentiment is supported by a weakening US dollar and ongoing monetary easing, which may provide a conducive environment for further capital inflow [7] - The upcoming earnings reports from A-share companies and North American tech giants are anticipated to have a more pronounced impact on market structure [6]

Group 1 - The banking sector experienced an increase today, led by small and medium-sized banks supported by strong earnings [1] - Two main reasons for this rise include the reversal of pessimism in the real estate sector due to regulatory changes and the positive earnings reports from listed banks [1] - The cumulative decline of the banking sector in 2026 reached 6%, marking it as the worst-performing sector, primarily due to capital disturbances rather than a deterioration in fundamentals [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Bank Index accounted for 65.61% of the index, including major banks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [2] - The CSI Bank Index (399986) saw a strong increase of 1.60%, with notable gains from Qingdao Bank (up 9.94%) and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (up 4.03%) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Bank reported a 7.97% year-on-year revenue growth and a 21.66% year-on-year net profit growth for 2025, marking the best performance in nearly three years, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.68%, up 1.17 percentage points year-on-year, indicating continuous improvement in operational efficiency [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for 2025 increased by 7.97%, with a quarter-on-quarter growth rate recovery of 2.94 percentage points, and a year-on-year decline of 0.25 percentage points [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 21.66%, with a quarter-on-quarter growth recovery of 6.12 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.50 percentage points [1] - In Q4 2025, revenue grew by 18.21% and net profit increased by 47.79%, indicating proactive credit deployment for strong quarterly performance [1] Group 2: Asset and Liability Expansion - Total assets at the end of 2025 grew by 18.12%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.68 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 4.63 percentage points [2] - Total loans increased by 16.53%, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.19 percentage points and a year-on-year growth of 3.00 percentage points [2] - Total liabilities at the end of 2025 grew by 18.55%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.68 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 4.99 percentage points [2] Group 3: Asset Quality Improvement - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 0.97%, down 13 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 17 basis points year-on-year, with a total NPL balance of 3.841 billion yuan, a decrease of 32 million yuan year-on-year [3] - The provision coverage ratio was 292.30%, up 22.33 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 50.98 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The loan provision balance increased by 1.909 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating improved asset quality [3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Recommendation - Expected net profit growth rates for 2026 and 2027 are 20.32% and 20.08%, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 1.03 and 1.24 yuan per share [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 4.49X for 2026 and 3.72X for 2027, and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.57X for 2026 and 0.51X for 2027 [3] - The company is recommended for active investor attention, with a reasonable value of 6.14 yuan per share based on the latest financial report [3]

规模增长方面，截至2025年末，青岛银行资产总额8149.60亿元，比上年末增长18.12%，客户贷款总额 3970.08亿元，比上年末增长16.53%；客户存款总额5028.99亿元，比上年末增长16.41%。 1月28日，青岛银行发布2025年度业绩快报。数据显示，2025年，该行归属于母公司股东的净利润51.88 亿元，同比增长21.66%；营业收入145.73亿元，同比增长7.97%；加权平均净资产收益率12.68%，比上 年提高1.17个百分点。 据中国人民银行统计，2025年末金融机构人民币各项贷款余额同比增长6.4%。有业内分析指出，在银 行业普遍面临息差收窄、资产荒与风险暴露多重压力的当下，青岛银行超过16%的信贷增速远超行业平 均水平，显示出该行在资产获取端的强劲动能，同时也意味着在许多同业选择"缩表"或"慢扩表"以规避 风险的周期里，青岛银行选择了相对激进的规模扩张策略。 值得关注的是，青岛银行利润增速与营收增速呈现显著"剪刀差"，21.66%的净利润增速接近7.97%的营 收增速的三倍，这种盈利增长与营收增长的差异化表现，在近期披露财报的上市银行中并不多见。 资产质量方面，截至2025年 ...

Group 1 - Qingdao Bank reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.188 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.66% [1] - Eight listed banks, including China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, and Ningbo Bank, have also reported positive net profit growth for the year 2025 [1] - The China Galaxy Securities noted that the overall market style in the fourth quarter continues from the previous quarter, with relatively low investor preference for the banking sector [1] Group 2 - The China Banking Index (399986) rose by 1.68%, with Qingdao Bank increasing by 9.94%, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank by 3.86%, and Ningbo Bank by 3.70% [1] - The Penghua Bank ETF closely tracks the China Banking Index and serves as an analytical tool for investors [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Banking Index accounted for 65.61% of the index, including major banks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [2]

格隆汇1月29日｜青岛银行H股盘中一度涨8%报4.29港元，A股涨停，报5.09元。消息面上，青岛银行昨 晚发布2025年度业绩快报，营业收入和净利润均实现增长。其中，营业收入达到145.73亿元，同比增长 7.97%；归属于母公司股东的净利润为51.88亿元，同比增长21.66%。此外，该行不良贷款率降至 0.97%，拨备覆盖率提升至292.30%，资产质量显著改善。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Bank, indicating a positive outlook for the stock with a recommendation to actively monitor it [1]. Core Insights - Qingdao Bank reported significant growth in revenue and profit for the year 2025, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 22% and a quarterly increase of 48% in Q4 2025 [6][7]. - The bank's total assets and liabilities grew by 18.1% and 18.5% respectively, with total loans and deposits increasing by 16.5% and 16.4% [6]. - The non-performing loan ratio improved significantly, dropping to 0.97%, which supports the bank's profit growth [6][7]. - The bank is positioned in Shandong, a major economic province, with potential for further growth and improved asset quality [6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 145.73 billion, 160.46 billion, and 176.36 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.0%, 10.1%, and 9.9% respectively [6][37]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 51.88 billion, 59.75 billion, and 67.77 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.7%, 15.2%, and 13.4% [6][37]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.85, 0.99, and 1.12 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 5.4, 4.7, and 4.1 [6][37].

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京1月29日电（王媛媛）市场早盘冲高回落，沪指和创业板指小幅收跌，科创50指数跌超 1%。截至午间收盘，沪指报4147.15点，跌0.10%；深证成指报14344.96点，涨0.01%；创业板指报3322 点，跌0.05%。沪深两市半日成交额2.02万亿元，较上个交易日放量1039亿元。 太空旅游：加快迭代形成亚轨道和轨道太空旅游飞行器产品，完成相关无人或有人飞行验证，建立完善 的太空旅游运营体系，实现亚轨道太空旅游航班化运营，逐步发展轨道太空旅游。 盘面热点 盘面上，贵金属概念反复活跃，西部黄金7天4板，中国黄金5连板，湖南黄金4连板。油气股延续强势， 通源石油涨超10%。AI应用概念表现活跃，浙文互联8天4板，因赛集团、粤传媒涨停。银行板块持续走 高，青岛银行涨停。房地产板块震荡反弹，大悦城、三湘印象、我爱我家涨停。下跌方面，半导体产业 链走势较弱，北京君正、神工股份跌超6%。 个股方面，全市场超2800只个股下跌。 机构观点 中信建投：预计由AI等带来的光纤需求将持续较快增长：一是考虑到全球光模块需求量在2026年仍将 大幅增长，则对应光纤需求也将随之增长（主要为Scale o ...

南方财经1月29日电，三大指数盘中集体翻绿，沪指窄幅震荡，创业板指冲高回落，科创50指数跌超 1%。截至收盘，沪指跌0.1%，深成指涨0.01%，创业板指跌0.05%。沪深两市半日成交额2.02万亿，较 上个交易日放量1039亿。盘面上热点快速轮动，全市场超2800只个股下跌。从板块来看，贵金属概念反 复活跃，西部黄金7天4板，中国黄金5连板，湖南黄金4连板。油气股延续强势，通源石油涨超10%。AI 应用概念表现活跃，浙文互联8天4板，因赛集团、粤传媒涨停。银行板块持续走高，青岛银行涨停。房 地产板块震荡反弹，大悦城、三湘印象、我爱我家涨停。下跌方面，半导体产业链走势较弱，北京君 正、神工股份跌超6%。 相关快讯 A股午评：科创50指数跌超1% AI应用端、资源股持续活跃 21世纪经济报道 21快讯 2026-01-29 11:33 南方财经1月29日电，三大指数盘中集体翻绿，沪指窄幅震荡，创业板指冲高回落，科创50指数跌超 1%。截至收盘，沪指跌0.1%，深成指涨0.01%，创业板指跌0.05%。沪深两市半日成交额2.02万亿，较 上个交易日放量1039亿。盘面上热点快速轮动，全市场超2800只个股下跌。从 ...