根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年9月中国原铝(电解铝)产量为381万吨，同比增长1.8%；2025年1-9月 中国原铝(电解铝)累计产量为3396.8万吨，累计增长2.2%。 上市企业：中国铝业（601600）,南山铝业（600219）,云铝股份（000807）,新疆众和（600888）,神火股 份（000933）,中孚实业（600595）,焦作万方（000612）,东阳光（600673）,天山铝业（002532）,闽发 铝业（002578） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国原铝（电解铝）行业发展战略规划及投资机会预测报 告》 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 2020-2025年1-9月中国原铝(电解铝)产量统计图 ...

截至2025年12月1日15:00，国证自由现金流指数强势上涨1.56%，成分股白银有色、中创物流、洛阳钼业、秦安股份、爱施德等个股领涨。自由现金流 ETF(159201)上涨1.72%，最新价报1.19元。流动性方面，自由现金流ETF盘中换手4.9%，成交3.64亿元。拉长时间看，截至12月1日，自由现金流ETF近1月 日均成交4.56亿元。 从资金净流入方面来看，自由现金流ETF近17天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得2.53亿元净流入，合计"吸金"19.81亿元，日均净流入达1.17亿元。份额 方面，自由现金流ETF最新份额达63.00亿份，创成立以来新高。规模方面，自由现金流ETF最新规模达74.66亿元，创成立以来新高。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。自由现金流ETF前一交易日融资净买额达213.60万元，最新融资余额达1.72亿元。 截至12月1日，自由现金流ETF近6月净值上涨20.02%。从收益能力看，截至2025年12月1日，自由现金流ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为7.00%，最长连涨 月数为6个月，最长连涨涨幅为22.69%，涨跌月数比为7/2，上涨月份平均收益率为3.20%，月盈利百分 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 81, categorizing it as "overheated," suggesting a high level of investor optimism and potential market risks [4][8][20] - Key investment themes identified include non-ferrous metals, banking, and low-altitude economy, each with specific drivers and related stocks [4][8] Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals theme is driven by expectations of demand increase due to potential US interest rate cuts and AI data center growth, leading to a price increase for copper and aluminum [4] - Copper prices are supported by financial attributes, supply constraints, and resilient traditional demand, while aluminum faces tight domestic capacity and limited overseas growth [4][8] Banking Sector - The banking sector is highlighted for its high dividend yield, with the China Securities Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly above the 10-year government bond yield [4] - In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, bank stocks are seen as stable investment options for long-term funds like insurance and social security [4][8] Low-Altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is positioned for growth, with the upcoming Asia General Aviation Exhibition expected to attract over 300 companies from 21 countries, indicating significant international interest [4] - The report emphasizes the vast market potential in this sector, particularly in infrastructure and aircraft manufacturing, enhanced by improved information processing capabilities [4][8] Market Sentiment and Strategy - The report suggests that when market sentiment is above 70, it may indicate resistance, while levels below 30 could provide support, guiding investment strategies [8][20] - Investors are advised to consider reducing positions in an overheated market to avoid potential losses from market corrections [20]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Liquidity Impact Coefficient Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model measures the liquidity impact of index adjustments on individual stocks by calculating the ratio of net fund flows to the stock's recent average daily trading volume[12][13] - **Model Construction Process**: The liquidity impact coefficient for a stock is calculated as follows: $$ impact_{i} = \sum_{k=1}^{N} \frac{\Delta weight_{k,i} \times AUM_{k}}{amt\_avg_{i,20}} $$ - \( \Delta weight_{k,i} \): Estimated weight change of stock \( i \) in index \( k \) - \( AUM_{k} \): Total assets under management of passive products tracking index \( k \) as of the end of November - \( amt\_avg_{i,20} \): Average daily trading volume of stock \( i \) over the past 20 trading days as of the end of November[12][13] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a quantitative framework to estimate short-term liquidity shocks caused by index adjustments, but it is subject to data discrepancies and assumptions, which may lead to deviations from actual results[13] --- Model Backtesting Results Liquidity Impact Coefficient Model - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Positive Impact Coefficients**: - Zhangjiagang Bank (002839 CH): 11.55[15] - Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical (600750 CH): 11.44[15] - Tower Group (002233 CH): 11.04[15] - Jichuan Pharmaceutical (600566 CH): 10.14[15] - Zhengbang Technology (002157 CH): 9.99[15] - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Negative Impact Coefficients**: - Shenzhen Expressway (600548 CH): -24.95[16] - Vanward Electric (002543 CH): -20.90[16] - Aviation Materials (688563 CH): -14.06[16] - Huaxi Biology (688363 CH): -10.81[16] - Ninghu Expressway (600377 CH): -10.54[16] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Net Fund Flow Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor estimates the net fund inflow or outflow for stocks due to index adjustments, based on changes in index weights and the total AUM of passive products tracking the index[9][10] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Outflow Amount: Total AUM of linked products multiplied by the stock's actual weight in the index as of the end of November - Inflow Amount: Total AUM of linked products multiplied by the estimated weight of the stock in the index post-adjustment - Weight estimation is based on free-float market capitalization and index-specific weighting rules, such as dividend yield weighting or market capitalization weighting[9][10] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a transparent and systematic approach to estimate fund flows, but it is sensitive to assumptions about future index weights and AUM changes[9][10] --- Factor Backtesting Results Net Fund Flow Factor - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Net Fund Inflows**: - Victory Precision (300476 CH): 112.61 billion CNY[10] - Dongshan Precision (002384 CH): 99.32 billion CNY[10] - Guangqi Technology (002625 CH): 77.81 billion CNY[10] - Sugon Information (603019 CH): 65.44 billion CNY[10] - Top Group (601689 CH): 53.07 billion CNY[10] - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Net Fund Outflows**: - China Mobile (600941 CH): -40.02 billion CNY[11] - CRRC Corporation (601766 CH): -36.40 billion CNY[11] - Aluminum Corporation of China (601600 CH): -34.29 billion CNY[11] - TCL Zhonghuan (002129 CH): -30.07 billion CNY[11] - Huagong Tech (000988 CH): -27.44 billion CNY[11]

Core Viewpoint - The mining ETF (561330) has surged over 3% today and has increased by over 90% year-to-date, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has significantly increased, rising from below 40% to over 80% this week, following dovish comments from several Fed officials [3]. - Recent economic data, including a lower-than-expected retail sales growth of 0.2% month-on-month in September and a decline in private sector jobs, supports the case for a rate cut [3]. Group 2: Performance of Mining ETF - The mining ETF (561330) has outperformed the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index by over 10% year-to-date, attributed to a more concentrated selection of leading stocks [4]. - The mining ETF tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, which consists of 37 stocks, with the top ten stocks accounting for 56.34% of the index, compared to 47.62% for the CSI Nonferrous Index, which has 60 stocks [4]. Group 3: Composition and Sector Focus - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index has a higher concentration in gold, copper, and rare earths, making up 53.4% of the index, compared to 49.8% in the CSI Nonferrous Index [7]. - The focus on these sectors allows the mining ETF to better capitalize on favorable market conditions [7]. Group 4: Supply Constraints and Market Outlook - Supply constraints are a fundamental driver for the positive outlook in the nonferrous mining sector, with insufficient capital expenditure on global resources over the past decade leading to reduced supply elasticity [12]. - Low inventory levels and increased demand from manufacturing recovery and energy transition are expected to amplify marginal demand improvements [12]. - Prices for copper and cobalt are anticipated to continue rising due to supply tightness, while lithium prices are expected to benefit from unexpected increases in storage demand [12]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The mining ETF (561330) currently has a scale of 826 million yuan, ranking first among similar index ETFs, indicating superior liquidity and investment opportunities in gold, copper, and rare earths [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of cash flow and dividend strategies in investment, particularly highlighting the performance of cash flow ETFs compared to dividend ETFs and the broader market [5][15][21]. Market Performance - On November 21, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.45%, marking a significant single-day decline for many investors [5]. - Since the beginning of April, following the US-China tariff war, the market and most sectors have shown considerable gains until early November, leading to increased risk exposure in investor portfolios [6]. Investment Strategies - A "barbell strategy" combining technology and dividend stocks has been effective, with technology stocks performing well this year and dividend assets providing a buffer during market corrections [7]. - The A-share market has experienced increased volatility since September, with significant declines in the 万得全 A Index during three major adjustment periods [8][9]. ETF Performance - During market corrections, dividend ETFs and cash flow ETFs demonstrated strong defensive characteristics, with dividend ETFs showing smaller declines or even gains [9]. - Cash flow ETFs have outperformed in terms of cumulative return-to-drawdown ratios, with 14 out of the top 20 strategies being cash flow ETFs [12]. Long-term Performance - Since 2014, the 国证自由现金流 index has significantly outperformed both the 深证红利 and 沪深 300 indices, with a cumulative return of 445.14% compared to 139.64% and 91.14%, respectively [14]. - During the market downturn from early 2022 to late September 2023, the 国证自由现金流 index achieved a cumulative return of 36.35%, while the other indices experienced negative returns [14]. Index Composition - The 国证自由现金流 index focuses on companies with positive free cash flow, enterprise value, and operating cash flow, selecting the top 100 stocks based on free cash flow yield [17]. - The index includes a high proportion of state-owned enterprises, with significant market capitalization among its constituents [18]. Market Trends - The current investment climate favors cash flow assets due to rising geopolitical tensions and a shift towards lower-risk investments [20]. - The largest cash flow ETF, 华夏自由现金流 ETF, has over 7 billion yuan in assets, making it a preferred choice for investors [22]. Future Outlook - Historical analysis suggests that market style rotations occur every 2-3 years, with Q4 often being a critical period for portfolio adjustments [23]. - The focus on cash flow aligns with current policy trends aimed at stabilizing the economy, making cash flow-rich sectors attractive for investment [23].

2020-2025年1-9月中国十种有色金属产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市企业：紫金矿业（601899）,洛阳钼业（603993）,中国铝业（601600）,北方稀土（600111）,江西铜 业（600362）,云南铜业（000878）,驰宏锌锗（600497）,中金黄金（600489）,西部矿业（601168）,盛 和资源（600392） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国有色金属冶炼和压延加工行业市场动态分析及未来趋势 研判报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年9月中国十种有色金属产量为695万吨，同比增长2.9%；2025年1-9月 中国十种有色金属累计产量为6124.9万吨，累计增长3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth permanent magnet sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by macroeconomic factors and policy support, indicating a potential new growth cycle for the industry in 2025 [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 1, 2025, the China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index rose by 2.31%, with key stocks such as Northern Rare Earth increasing by 4.80%, and others like Jinchao Wanfang and China Aluminum also showing strong gains [1]. - The overall market sentiment is optimistic due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024 and domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, which are expected to boost the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - Analysts predict that the rare earth sector will benefit from a recovery in macroeconomic expectations post-Geneva Agreement in 2025, alongside supply chain disruptions and liquidity easing, leading to improved metal prices and corporate profitability [1]. - The demand for rare earths is expected to remain stable due to traditional applications, while new demands from humanoid robots and low-altitude economies are anticipated to emerge [1]. Group 3: Policy and Supply Dynamics - Domestic supply control measures are being strengthened, which is likely to enhance industry concentration and solidify China's global monopoly in the rare earth supply chain [1]. - The strategic value of rare earths is increasing, which is expected to elevate industry valuations and improve the profitability of rare earth magnetic material companies [1]. Group 4: Investment Tools - The Jiashi Rare Earth ETF (516150) closely tracks the China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index, providing a convenient investment tool for exposure to the domestic rare earth industry [2]. - Investors can also access rare earth investment opportunities through the Jiashi Rare Earth ETF Connect Fund (011036) [2].

有色ETF基金紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色金属行业上市公 司的整体收益表现，向市场提供细分行业的指数化投资标的。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业 (601899)、洛阳钼业(603993)、北方稀土(600111)、华友钴业(603799)、中国铝业(601600)、赣锋锂业 (002460)、中金黄金(600489)、山东黄金(600547)、天齐锂业(002466)、云铝股份(000807)，前十大权重 股合计占比52.34%。 有色ETF基金(159880)，场外联接(A：021296；C：021297；接I：022886)。 截至2025年12月1日 09:48，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)强势上涨4.20%，成分股白银有色(601212)上 涨9.96%，江西铜业(600362)上涨9.72%，兴业银锡(000426)上涨9.53%，云南铜业(000878)，铜陵有色 (000630)等个股跟涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has significantly boosted the performance of the mining ETF (561330), which has increased over 90% year-to-date, with a recent surge of over 4% [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's dovish comments from multiple officials have led to a notable increase in rate cut expectations, rising from below 40% to over 80% [2]. - Recent economic data, including a lower-than-expected retail sales growth of 0.2% in September and a decrease in private sector jobs, supports the case for a rate cut [2]. Group 2: Mining Sector Performance - The mining sector has experienced a comprehensive rise, with spot gold reaching a two-week high of $4226.56 per ounce and silver hitting a historical record [2]. - The demand for industrial metals is expected to rise due to liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve and increased physical demand from A-shares, particularly for copper and aluminum [2]. Group 3: ETF Performance and Composition - The mining ETF (561330) has outperformed the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index by over 10% year-to-date, attributed to a more concentrated selection of leading stocks [3]. - The mining ETF tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, which has 37 components with the top ten stocks accounting for 56.34% of the index, compared to 47.62% for the CSI Nonferrous Index with 60 components [3]. Group 4: Sector Composition and Trends - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index has a higher proportion of gold, copper, and rare earths at 53.4%, compared to 49.8% in the CSI Nonferrous Index, indicating a stronger response to favorable market conditions [5]. - The supply constraints in the nonferrous mining industry are expected to drive prices higher, with copper and cobalt prices anticipated to continue rising due to supply tightness [11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The mining ETF (561330) currently has a scale of 826 million yuan, ranking first among similar index ETFs, indicating superior liquidity and investment opportunities in gold, copper, and rare earths [11].