交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游玻璃盘面回升，提振纯碱市场情绪。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修零星启动，供给仍处高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求一 般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1194元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1231元/吨，基差为-37元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存186.34万吨，较前一周增加2.98%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：纯碱 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修零星启动，供给仍处高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求一 般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1168元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1178元/吨，基差为-10元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存180.95万吨，较前一周增加2.41%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 。 2、风险点：下游浮法和光伏玻璃冷修不及预期，宏观利好超预期。 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较 ...

关于参加内蒙古辖区上市公司2025年投资者 网上集体接待日活动的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 为进一步加强与投资者的互动交流，内蒙古博源化工股份有限公司（以下简 称公司）将参加由内蒙古证监局、内蒙古上市公司协会与深圳市全景网络有限公 司联合举办的"2025 年内蒙古辖区上市公司投资者网上集体接待日活动"，现 将相关事项公告如下： 证券代码：000683 证券简称：博源化工 公告编号：2025-056 内蒙古博源化工股份有限公司 本次活动将采用网络远程的方式举行，投资者可登录"全景路演"网站 （http://rs.p5w.net），或关注微信公众号：全景财经，或下载全景路演 APP, 参与本次互动交流，活动时间为 2025 年 7 月 11 日（星期五）16:00-18:00。届 时公司高管将在线就公司 2024 年度业绩、公司治理、发展战略、经营状况、融 资计划、股权激励和可持续发展等投资者关心的问题，与投资者进行沟通与交流。 欢迎广大投资者踊跃参与！ 特此公告。 内蒙古博源化工股份有限公司董事会 二〇二五年七月九日 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Mid - term, the overall downward trend of soda ash remains unchanged, and a bearish approach is still recommended. High upstream inventory and concentrated inventory distribution may lead to short - term price stimulation during the third - quarter maintenance season due to supply - side accidents or macro - policies, but there is limited room for rebound under overall supply pressure. By the end of the third quarter, with the end of annual maintenance, the soda ash industry will face significant inventory pressure, and it may be advisable to short the 01 contract on price rallies, but with light positions due to relatively low absolute prices [2][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In the first half of 2025, the soda ash futures price rose and then fell, with the overall price center shifting down. Pre - holiday stocking in January improved enterprise orders, but price dropped after the holiday due to inventory accumulation. In late February, the price rose on maintenance expectations, then fell again in March due to poor downstream demand. In April, the market showed a negative feedback loop with an enlarged price decline. In May, increased maintenance led to a limited price rebound, and in June, new production capacity and reduced maintenance increased supply pressure and pushed the price down again [6]. - The basis of soda ash strengthened slightly in H1 2025 as the futures price dropped more than the spot price. The registered warehouse receipts of soda ash showed seasonal changes, with an absolute quantity higher than the same period last year. The 9 - 1 spread can be seasonally focused on before the 09 contract delivery [9]. 3.2 Supply - side Analysis - In 2025, new production capacity has been added, including Lianyungang Debang, Lianyungang Alkali Industry, and Hubei Shuanghuan. Future planned capacity includes Yuanxing Phase 2 and Xindu Chemical. The industry supply is still expanding, and there are long - term investment plans [12]. - The maintenance rhythm in 2025 is similar to last year. Maintenance in March and May led to a decline in production, but overall production remained high due to increased total capacity. In June, production was expected to continue increasing. The overall start - up rate in 2025 decreased slightly compared to last year, but the monthly average production exceeded 3 million tons. In July - August, the traditional maintenance season, the industry start - up rate will decline slightly. Attention should be paid to the load reduction of existing capacity under low - profit conditions in the second half of the year [12]. 3.3 Demand - side Analysis - **Float Glass**: In the first half of 2025, the daily melting volume of float glass decreased. As of June 30, it was 157,800 tons, and the glass production was 28.409 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.8%. The glass market was in a pattern of inventory accumulation and price decline. With the current real - estate data, the construction side of the real - estate industry is unlikely to improve glass demand in the second half of the year. The new and cold - repaired production capacities of glass are expected to offset each other, but if demand remains weak, cold - repair willingness will increase. The rigid demand for soda ash from float glass may decrease slightly in the second half of the year, but attention should be paid to the possibility of glass factories restocking at low soda ash prices [26]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: In the first half of 2025, the production capacity of photovoltaic glass increased, but it was still lower than the same period last year. As of June 30, the daily melting volume was 94,000 tons, an increase of 10,250 tons from the beginning of the year. The downstream component factories' rush - to - install behavior in March increased the purchase of photovoltaic glass, but the new ignition speed slowed down later. In June, the daily melting volume began to decline marginally, and leading enterprises planned to cut production in July. The photovoltaic glass industry is expected to face pressure in the second half of the year, and the daily melting volume at the end of the year may return to 83,000 - 85,000 tons or lower. The demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass is expected to decrease year - on - year [34][36]. - **Light Soda Ash**: The downstream of light soda ash is scattered, mainly small factories, with obvious seasonal start - up characteristics. The demand is generally related to economic development, and the actual stocking sentiment is affected by price fluctuations. In the first half of 2025, the light soda ash market performed slightly better than the heavy soda ash market. In the long - term, with the expected macro - economic recovery, the demand for light soda ash may be boosted, but the overall increase may be limited [41]. - **Exports and Imports**: In the first half of 2025, soda ash imports decreased significantly year - on - year, with a cumulative import volume of 16,100 tons from January to May, a decrease of 97.7%. Exports increased significantly, with a cumulative export volume of 835,600 tons from January to May, an increase of 453,300 tons or 118.6%. Exports are mainly concentrated in Asian regions. In the second half of the year, imports are expected to remain low, and exports are expected to remain relatively high, with a significant year - on - year increase for the whole year [47][48]. 3.4 Inventory - side Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the inventory of soda ash factories increased significantly. As of June 30, the inventory was 1.7688 million tons, a significant increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The inventory of middle and downstream is also not low. The inventory in delivery warehouses was about 230,000 tons at the beginning of July, and the inventory days of downstream glass factories were about 22 days, about 29 days including in - transit inventory. The soda ash industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year, with a limited accumulation rate in July - August due to maintenance and possible downstream restocking, but significant inventory pressure after the third quarter [50][51]. 3.5 Cost - profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, although the spot price of soda ash declined, the cost also decreased due to the fall in raw material prices, and soda ash factories still had a small profit, which supported a relatively high start - up rate. In the second half of the year, coal prices are expected to decline slightly, and the price of raw salt is expected to remain stable. The cost of soda ash may decline slightly. With the end of seasonal maintenance, the supply - demand pressure will reappear, and the spot price of soda ash is expected to decline, leading to a further decline in the profit of soda ash factories [62]. 3.6 Summary and Outlook - **Supply**: In July - August, although there is still some maintenance, the industry start - up and production will remain at a high level. In September, with less maintenance, the start - up rate will increase significantly, and the supply pressure will be particularly obvious in the fourth quarter, and the high - inventory problem of upstream cannot be solved [66]. - **Demand**: The profit of float glass is low, and the daily melting volume is expected to decrease slightly in the second half of the year, reducing the demand for soda ash. Photovoltaic glass is also expected to reduce its daily melting volume due to inventory pressure, and the demand for soda ash will decrease year - on - year. The downstream of light soda ash is affected by the macro - economy, and some downstream enterprises face inventory and profit pressure [66]. - **Overall**: The downward trend of soda ash remains unchanged, and a bearish approach is recommended. High upstream inventory and concentrated inventory distribution may lead to short - term price stimulation, but there is limited room for rebound. After the third - quarter maintenance, significant inventory pressure will emerge, and it may be advisable to short the 01 contract on price rallies with light positions [66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has lagged behind the broader market, with a weekly increase of +0.8% compared to +1.4% for the Shanghai Composite Index and +1.5% for the ChiNext Index. Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by +7.3%, outperforming both indices by 3.7% and 6.6% respectively [7][19]. - Recent government policies are aimed at addressing excessive competition and promoting structural improvements in the industry. The focus is on enhancing product quality and facilitating the exit of outdated production capacity [7][8]. - The report identifies five key investment themes within the chemical sector, including battery materials, industrial silicon and organic silicon, polyester filament, polyester bottle chips, and sucralose, highlighting the potential for structural improvements and demand recovery [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the basic chemical industry is entering a phase of structural improvement due to government policies aimed at reducing excessive competition and promoting quality [7][8]. - It suggests that the industry is likely to experience a new long-term growth cycle, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and the exit of outdated production capacity [16][17]. 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has shown a weekly increase of +0.8%, ranking 16th among 31 sectors, while year-to-date performance is +7.3%, indicating a recovery trend [19]. 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 224 stocks rose while 194 fell. The top performers included companies like 凯美特气 (+27.5%) and 科拓生物 (+21.9%) [28][29]. 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report highlights the central government's focus on addressing low-price competition and promoting quality improvements in the chemical industry, which is expected to lead to a more orderly competitive environment [7][8]. 5. Product Price and Price Spread Analysis - The report provides insights into the price movements of various chemical products, indicating significant fluctuations in prices, with some products experiencing notable increases while others faced declines [7][8].

每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修零星启动，供给仍处高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求一 般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1190元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1174元/吨，基差为16元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存180.95万吨，较前一周增加2.41%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。SA2509：1140-1190区间操作 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-7 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产量处于历史 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.6.30-7.4 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 上周纯碱期货低位震荡，主力合约SA2509收盘较前一周下跌1.84%报1174元/吨。现货方 面，河北沙河重碱低端价1190元/吨，较前一周下跌2.70%。 供给方面，前期纯碱企业检修持续，下周个别企业恢复或计划检修，整体对于供应影响 不大，预计下周周度产量接近71万吨，开工率81%。需求端，下游浮法和光伏玻璃需求一般， 按需为主，存货意向不足。目前浮法消费相对稳定，光伏逐步下行，消费下降；周内，浮法 在产日熔量15.78万吨，环比增加1000吨，光伏日熔量9.20万吨，环比降3600吨。截止7月3 日，全国纯碱厂内库存180.95万吨，较前一周增加2.41%，库存仍处于历史同期高位。综合 来看，纯碱供给高位 ...

每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修零星启动，供给仍处高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求一 般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1210元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1183元/吨，基差为17元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存180.95万吨，较前一周增加2.41%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-4 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游玻璃盘面回升，提振纯碱市场情绪。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：纯碱供给 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-3 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修零星启动，供给仍处高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求一 般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1210元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1205元/吨，基差为5元，期货贴 水现货；中性 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存176.69万吨，较前一周增加2.33%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 利多： 1、下游玻璃盘面回升，提振纯碱市场情绪。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：纯碱供给高位，终端需求改 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-2 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修零星启动，供给仍处高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求一 般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1190元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1165元/吨，基差为25元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存176.69万吨，较前一周增加2.33%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今 ...