1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market may maintain high - level volatility in the short term. Supply - side factors such as the resumption of mine shipments and high domestic smelting capacity release pose pressure, but export diversion and the commissioning of bonded mixed ore support domestic spot premiums. On the demand side, the continuous decline in the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises restricts the upside space, and the weakening of the US dollar provides short - term bullish support [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Changes - On June 30, the main contract of SHFE copper closed at 79,800 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 0.08% from the previous day. The LME copper price slightly declined from $9,896/ton to $9,879/ton, maintaining a high - level volatility pattern. The premiums of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper in the spot market all increased, and the basis strengthened overall [1]. - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 650 tons to 90,625 tons, with two consecutive weeks of destocking. LME copper inventory continued to increase by 505 tons to 25,851 tons. The holding volume of the LME 0 - 3 copper contract increased by 4,590 lots to 292,214 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: Overseas mine disturbances eased, and the domestic smelting sector showed differentiation. The spot supply in Jiangsu was tight due to export plans, while the warehouse receipts in Shanghai and Guangdong increased, and the smelting plant operating rate remained high [3]. - Demand side: The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises continued to decline. During the week from June 20th to 26th, it decreased by 1.81 percentage points to 74.01%, and some enterprises planned further production cuts and inventory reduction at the beginning of July. Downstream buyers showed obvious high - price aversion, with weak spot trading in North China [4]. - Inventory side: The pressure of overseas visible inventory increased, with the LME inventory increasing by more than 2,000 tons in two consecutive weeks to 25,851 tons, and the COMEX inventory also increasing to 209,281 short tons. The destocking pace of domestic SHFE inventory slowed down, and there was a risk of spot market liquidity after export diversion [5]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of SMM 1 copper decreased by 210 yuan/ton to 80,090 yuan/ton on June 30, a decrease of 0.26%. The premiums of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper all increased, with increases of 11.11%, 35.29%, and 83.33% respectively. The LME (0 - 3) price decreased by 59 dollars/ton to 182 dollars/ton, a decrease of 24.51%. The SHFE price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 79,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08%. The LME price decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 9,878 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.01% [8]. - LME inventory increased by 505 tons to 25,851 tons, an increase of 1.99%. SHFE inventory decreased by 650 tons to 90,625 tons, a decrease of 0.71%. COMEX inventory increased by 1,928 short tons to 211,209 short tons, an increase of 0.92% [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On June 30, SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 505 tons, with 399 tons in Shanghai and 401 tons in Guangdong, and a decrease of 295 tons in Jiangsu. The continuous decrease of warehouse receipts in Jiangsu was due to the export plans of local smelters [9]. - On June 30, First Quantum Minerals' Cobre Panama copper mine started to transport copper ore, which may increase supply [9]. - From June 20th to 26th, the weekly operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises decreased to 74.01%, a decrease of 1.81 percentage points, lower than the expected value by 2.22 percentage points, and an increase of 4.99 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected that the operating rate will further decline to 73.48% in the week from June 27th to July 3rd [9]. - On June 25th, the copper concentrate mixing project of Zhongtong (Tangshan) Mineral Products Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation, marking the full - scale smooth operation of the bonded mixed ore business process [10]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts of China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [11][12][13]

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 投资策略 | | 变量名称 | 2025-06-30 | 2025-06-27 | 2025-06-20 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 79870 | 79920 | 77990 | -50.00 | | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 成交量(手) | 100845 | 131756 | 65822 | -30,811.00 ~~~ | | | | 持仓量(手) | 212911 | 215705 | 166882 | -2,794.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 25851 | 25346 | 33882 | 505.00 | | | | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 79990 | 801 25 | 78400 | -135.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | 沪铜基差 | 120 | 205 | 410 | -85.00 | | | (现货与期货) | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | 65 | 95 | 9 ...

Investment Ratings - The report provides a "Buy" rating for First Quantum Minerals and Ero Copper, while Capstone Copper, Antofagasta, and Codelco are rated as "Neutral" [9][12][18][21][26][35]. Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing ongoing cyclical and structural bullishness regarding supply and demand dynamics [2]. - The consensus incentive price for copper is projected to be above $4.5/lb, with some major projects requiring prices between $4.75-$5/lb to incentivize capital returns [2][22][45]. - Cost inflation in the industry has peaked, and the regulatory environment is improving, which may support future project developments [2][22]. Summary by Company Antofagasta - Antofagasta is a pure-play copper producer with a market cap of $24.7 billion, targeting copper production of approximately 750ktpa in 2024 [9]. - The company is focused on brownfield project development, with major growth projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres progressing on schedule [10]. - The 2025 copper production guidance is set at 660-700kt, with net cash costs expected between $1.45-1.65/lb [11]. Capstone Copper - Capstone Copper, with a market cap of $4.7 billion, has a production guidance of 220kt-255kt for 2025 [14]. - The company is focusing on deleveraging and smaller expansion projects before a significant growth phase with the Santo Domingo project [15]. - The management anticipates a financing gap of $200-300 million for the Santo Domingo project, which they aim to address through internal cash flow generation [16]. Codelco - Codelco, a state-owned enterprise, aims for a copper production target of 1.7Mt by 2030, with significant projects at Chuquicamata and El Teniente [21][24]. - The company is exploring public-private partnerships to enhance copper production and smelting capacity [23]. - Codelco's capital allocation strategy includes a focus on internal cash flow to fund growth, with an available capital of $4 billion [25]. Ero Copper - Ero Copper, with a market cap of $1.8 billion, is expected to reach commercial production at its Tucumã operation soon, with a production capacity of 85ktpa of copper [26]. - The company aims to maintain C1 cash costs below $2.00/lb, leveraging high-grade zones at its Caraíba mine [27]. - Ero Copper has a 12-month price target of $18.0 based on DCF methodology [28]. First Quantum Minerals - First Quantum Minerals, with a market cap of $14.7 billion, has a production capacity of 820ktpa and is focused on strong physical demand and tight inventories [30]. - The company is excited about the Furnas project, which is expected to deliver high-grade deposits [31]. - First Quantum has a 12-month target price of C$22.0/share based on an EV/EBITDA multiple-based valuation [35]. Foran Mining - Foran Mining is the only single-asset developer constructing a copper mine in North America, targeting commercial production by mid-2026 [37]. - The company has cleared permitting and funding hurdles, with surface construction approximately 35% complete [38]. Freeport-McMoran - Freeport-McMoran, the largest publicly traded pure-play copper producer, is focused on improving efficiencies and reducing costs [39]. - The company has a large project pipeline representing an annual capacity of 2.5 billion lbs [40]. Hudbay Minerals - Hudbay Minerals has a market cap of $4.2 billion and is advancing its Copper World project, which is fully permitted for 85ktpa production [41]. - The company is optimistic about the regulatory environment in the US and Peru, which supports its project developments [42]. Teck Resources - Teck Resources is focused on responsible growth and value creation, with a strong portfolio of world-class assets [44]. - The company believes that copper incentive prices will need to be above $5/lb to generate adequate returns [45]. Vale Base Metals - Vale Base Metals is undergoing significant restructuring, with a focus on maximizing brownfield opportunities and improving project economics [48]. - The company aims for a copper production guidance of 700kt by 2035, with potential to exceed this figure [48].

Investment Rating - The report rates the following companies as "Buy": BHP.AX, RIO, GLEN, LUN, FM, CMOC, MMG, Zijin, S32, and Vale [4][25][47] Core Insights - The all-in marginal cost for the top 20 copper producers is estimated at approximately US$4.3/lb for 2024, indicating a broad support for a long-run copper price of around US$4.6/lb [1][8] - The top 20 copper producers are projected to spend over US$30 billion in capital expenditures (capex) in 2024, with Codelco and Freeport leading with approximately US$4.5 billion each [2][25] - Copper demand is expected to rise by 4 million tonnes by 2030, necessitating higher prices to support growth in mine and scrap supply to prevent market deficits [3] Summary by Sections Cost Analysis - The report presents a global copper cash cost curve, with the marginal cash cost of production estimated at approximately US$3.1/lb, influenced by various factors including inflation and ore grade decline [16][24] - The five companies with the highest all-in costs for 2024 are KGHM, Capstone, Codelco, Ivanhoe, and Teck, with Codelco's Chuquicamata mine being the most costly at around US$5.9/lb [2][12] Production and Demand Forecast - Refined copper production is projected to increase from 26,015 thousand tonnes in 2023 to 27,061 thousand tonnes in 2024, while consumption is expected to rise from 25,954 thousand tonnes in 2023 to 26,712 thousand tonnes in 2024 [31] - The report indicates a potential market balance shift, with a forecasted surplus of 349 thousand tonnes in 2024, followed by a deficit of 120 thousand tonnes in 2026 [31] Company-Specific Insights - Codelco aims to recover production volumes to 1.7 million tonnes per annum over the next 4-5 years, with significant investments in modernization and expansion [27] - Freeport's Grasberg operations in Indonesia are highlighted for their industry-leading cash cost of negative ~US$0.3/lb, despite high capex spending [27] - BHP's Escondida mine is projected to see a decline in production due to grade decline, but growth is expected to accelerate post-2030 [28]

根据最近批准的一项维护保养计划，First Quantum Minerals将每月花费约2,000万美元来维护其闲置的 Cobre Panamá铜矿。 巴拿马矿业商会会长Roderick Gutiérrez表示，将通过出售储存在矿场的铜精矿来支付成本。该公司目前 拥有12.1万吨精矿，尽管在近两年的闲置后，一些精矿已经变质。Gutiérrez在接受当地媒体采访时指 出，重新处理这些降级的材料在经济上可能不可行。 该矿的维护计划包含了最新的环境和法律规范，并预计需要六到十二个月的时间来实施，具体时间取决 于设备状况。监督工作将由十个政府部门负责，其中包括巴拿马环境部。 Cobre Panamá是一个投资达100亿美元的露天矿场项目，于2023年末因总统下令而关闭。在关闭之前， 该矿约占巴拿马GDP的5%，并为First Quantum公司贡献了约40%的年收入。该矿场的关闭对该公司以及 国家经济都造成了严重的影响。 现任总统José Raúl Mulino表示有兴趣在优先考虑国家所有权的模式下重新谈判该矿的未来。 Mulino在5月份表示："咱们要聪明些，从我们已经拥有的矿场中获取最大收益，这对我们巴拿马人来说 ...

Company Overview - Solis Minerals Limited is focused on advancing its portfolio of high-priority copper-gold targets in the Southern Coastal Belt of Peru, holding 81 exploration concessions covering a total area of 69,200 hectares [3][5][52] - The company has appointed Mitch Thomas as Chief Executive Officer, who brings extensive experience in South America and project development [4][48] Financial Highlights - Solis successfully completed a placement raising A$4.5 million to support drilling activities in Peru [7][42] - The company had a cash balance of A$0.8 million as of February 28, 2025, with additional funds raised post-reporting period [40][42] Project Developments - Significant progress was made in advancing permits and refining high-priority copper targets, with drilling at Chancho al Palo and Ilo Este expected to begin in May 2025 [8][16] - The Chocolate Project has revealed multiple copper-gold targets, with notable geochemical assay results including 0.71% Cu and 0.60 g/t Au for Porphyry Target 1 [27][26] Market Conditions - The copper market is experiencing strong momentum, with prices recently surpassing US$10,000 per tonne due to supply constraints and robust demand, particularly linked to the global energy transition [13][15] - Gold prices have reached record highs above US$3,000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and central bank purchases [14][15] Exploration Activities - Extensive copper porphyry mineralization has been identified at the Cinto Project, with significant channel sampling results indicating 23.4m @ 0.88% Cu [21][23] - The company is planning Induced-Polarisation (IP) surveys to define drill targets at Cinto, with drilling anticipated in the second half of 2025 [25][20] Corporate Strategy - Solis is evaluating options to simplify its listing structure, potentially delisting from the TSXV and establishing the ASX as its primary listing [41] - The company is actively reviewing potential acquisitions in various jurisdictions, focusing on copper and gold projects that are drill-ready [39]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - Copper inventory is continuously increasing, which restricts the price rebound [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Price and Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 75,870 with a daily decline of 0.58%, and the night - session closing price was 75,830 with a decline of 0.05%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,137 with a decline of 0.91%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 87,809, a decrease of 22,039 from the previous day, and the position was 150,069, a decrease of 2,954. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 8,366, an increase of 742, and the position was 293,000, an increase of 2,002 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 92,209, an increase of 2,840 from the previous day. The inventory of LME Copper was 212,475, an increase of 4,650, and the注销仓单 ratio was 43.82%, a decrease of 0.25% [1] - **Price Spreads**: The LME copper spread decreased by 14.73 to - 44.74. The spread between spot and the near - month futures contract increased by 40 to 40. The spread between the near - month contract and the next - month contract decreased by 100 to - 40 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US launched an investigation into the national security risks posed by key minerals and their derivatives that rely on imported processing. Canada will suspend tariffs on some US goods for 6 months and conditionally exempt some counter - measures against imported US cars. Mexico strengthened inspections, and fuel imports from the US Texas border were halted. The EU expects US tariffs to continue [1] - **Micro News**: Panama's government announced that Canada's First Quantum Minerals has withdrawn an international arbitration request against the country. In March 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 239.4 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to March were 710.8 million tons, a 1.8% increase from the previous year. Canada's Hudbay Minerals reached an agreement with seven industry unions to support the construction of the Copper World copper mine in Arizona, with an annual copper production capacity of 8.5 million tons and an expected mining life of 20 years [3]

Company Overview - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) shares increased by 15.5% to close at $33.74, following a notable trading volume, contrasting with an 18.6% loss over the past four weeks [1] - The company is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.26 per share, reflecting an 18.8% year-over-year decline, with revenues projected at $5.6 billion, down 11.4% from the previous year [2] Earnings Estimates and Trends - The consensus EPS estimate for FCX has been revised 9.4% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a potential for price appreciation [3] - A positive trend in earnings estimate revisions is typically associated with stock price increases, suggesting that FCX may experience further strength [3] Industry Context - FCX operates within the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry, where First Quantum Minerals (FQVLF) also resides, having closed 14% higher at $12.01, despite a -12% return over the past month [3] - For First Quantum Minerals, the consensus EPS estimate has decreased by 37.5% to -$0.07, but represents a 65% change from the previous year's report [4]

Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The financial data for February 2025 shows an increase in social financing and new loans, indicating a potential recovery in economic activity [2][11][13] - The oil market is under pressure due to recession fears in the US, but there are opportunities for recovery as the US plans to replenish its strategic oil reserves [17][18][19] - The express delivery sector has shown strong growth in early 2025, with a 22.4% year-on-year increase in package volume [21][22] - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with increased ticket bookings for domestic and international flights [20][23][24] Summary by Sections Fixed Income - New loans in February 2025 amounted to 1.01 trillion yuan, with social financing reaching 2.24 trillion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase in social financing growth to 8.2% [2][11][13] - M2 growth was stable at 7.0%, and M1 growth is expected to rise further throughout the year [12][14] Transportation - The oil price has declined significantly, with Brent crude at $69.28 per barrel, creating opportunities for refiners to improve profit margins [17][18] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from supply tightness and geopolitical uncertainties, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [19][30] Express Delivery - The express delivery industry reported a strong performance in January and February, with a total of 284.8 billion packages delivered, reflecting a 22.4% increase year-on-year [21][22] - The sector is expected to see continued demand, with major players like ZTO Express and SF Express positioned for growth [29] Aviation - The aviation sector is experiencing a rebound in ticket bookings, with domestic flight reservations up 24% year-on-year for the Qingming Festival [20][23] - The industry is expected to benefit from a long-term supply-demand imbalance, with a focus on companies like China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines [20][29] Metals and New Materials - Copper prices are anticipated to rise due to supply disruptions from smelting plants reducing output [30] - The demand for copper is supported by recovering downstream industries, with expectations of a bullish trend in copper prices [30] North Exchange - The North Exchange is seeing new financing projects and a stable market environment, with a focus on companies that can provide consistent dividends and growth potential [10][30]

Group 1 - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) shares increased by 9.3% to close at $38.16, following a notable trading volume compared to typical sessions, despite a 4.3% loss over the past four weeks [1] - The rally in FCX's stock is attributed to a surge in copper prices due to President Trump's suggestion of a 25% tariff on copper imports, alongside a weaker dollar and China's stimulus measures [2] - FCX is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.29 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 9.4%, with revenues projected at $5.54 billion, down 12.3% from the previous year [2] Group 2 - The consensus EPS estimate for FCX has been revised down by 11.9% over the last 30 days, indicating a negative trend in earnings estimate revisions, which typically does not lead to price appreciation [4] - FCX holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook [4] - First Quantum Minerals (FQVLF), another company in the non-ferrous mining industry, saw its stock rise by 10.4% to $12.89, but has returned -11.6% over the past month [4]