消息面上，中国国航公布，预计公司2025年度将出现亏损，归属于上市公司股东的净亏损约为人民币13 亿元到人民币19亿元，归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损约为人民币19亿元到人民币27 亿元。2024年归属于上市公司股东的净亏损为人民币2.37亿元，归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损 益的净亏损为人民币25.40亿元。 西部证券（002673）指出，2025年Q1-Q3中国国航累计实现归母净利润18.70亿元，结合预亏公告2025 全年归母净利润在-19至-13亿之间，由此可以推算公司25Q4亏损在31.7-37.7亿元之间。25Q4较24年同期 亏损幅度扩大。根据公告2024年Q4中国国航归母净利润为-16.00亿元，由此可说明25年Q4公司归母净 利润亏损幅度扩大，原因是公司对递延所得税资产的账面价值进行复核，相应转回部分递延所得税资 产。 中国国航（601111）(00753)盘中跌近3%，截至发稿，跌2.44%，报6.81港元，成交额1.32亿港元。 ...

西部证券指出，2025年Q1-Q3中国国航累计实现归母净利润18.70亿元，结合预亏公告2025全年归母净 利润在-19至-13亿之间，由此可以推算公司25Q4亏损在31.7-37.7亿元之间。25Q4较24年同期亏损幅度扩 大。根据公告2024年Q4中国国航归母净利润为-16.00亿元，由此可说明25年Q4公司归母净利润亏损幅 度扩大，原因是公司对递延所得税资产的账面价值进行复核，相应转回部分递延所得税资产。 消息面上，中国国航公布，预计公司2025年度将出现亏损，归属于上市公司股东的净亏损约为人民币13 亿元到人民币19亿元，归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损约为人民币19亿元到人民币27 亿元。 2024年归属于上市公司股东的净亏损为人民币2.37亿元，归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损 益的净亏损为人民币25.40亿元。 智通财经APP获悉，中国国航(00753)盘中跌近3%，截至发稿，跌2.44%，报6.81港元，成交额1.32亿港 元。 ...

Group 1 - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season will start on February 2 and end on March 13, lasting for 40 days, with a total of 88,800 flights planned at Beijing Capital and Daxing airports, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.67% [1] - Air China plans to increase its fleet by 25 aircraft compared to last year, executing over 70,000 passenger flights during the Spring Festival, a 10.1% increase from 2025, with an average of 1,800 flights per day, an increase of 160 flights [1] - Air China will focus on key routes between major city clusters, maintaining high operational levels and covering nearly 50 domestic routes [1] Group 2 - In the western region, Air China will add over 500 flights covering popular tourist destinations such as Lijiang, Dali, and Xishuangbanna [2] - Eastern Airlines plans to deploy 822 passenger aircraft, including 14 domestic C919 aircraft, executing 125,000 flights during the Spring Festival, a year-on-year increase of about 3.6% [4] - Southern Airlines plans to operate over 126,000 passenger flights during the Spring Festival, with approximately 13,000 additional flights across more than 260 routes [4] Group 3 - Hainan Airlines expects to operate over 33,000 flights, transporting approximately 5.516 million passengers, with increased flight frequencies on major routes and tourist destinations [5] - Hainan Airlines will expand its international route network, adding several new international destinations from Beijing and Haikou compared to last year's Spring Festival [5]

国际地区航线方面，东南亚方向航班增加较为明显。海南航空已加密重庆—曼谷航线至每日1班；重庆航 空自2月起将陆续开通曼谷、胡志明、沙巴、槟城等航线。届时，重庆—曼谷的每日航班最多可达6班。中 国国航加密重庆—首尔航线至每日1班，加密重庆—新加坡航线至每日2班，加密后该航线每日航班最多可 达5班。天津航空也计划于3月1日起将重庆—莫斯科航线加密至每周2班。 目前，重庆江北国际机场在飞国际（地区）客运航线已达38条，每周执行航班约240班，可通达西雅图、 伦敦、巴黎、罗马、布达佩斯、迪拜、新加坡、首尔、普吉、河内等全球众多城市，为广大市民春节期间 出国旅游、探亲提供便利。 重庆江北国际机场提醒广大旅客：春运期间客流量大，建议旅客朋友们预留充足时间抵达机场办理值机手 续。T3航站楼10号线出口层，即B1层办理乘机手续客流小、过检速度快，有助于节约等候时间，提升出行 效率。 2月2日，2026年春运正式开启。重庆江北国际机场发布消息，据初步统计，春运40天预计保障航班起降超 过4万架次，迎送旅客超625万人次，机场在春运期间的客流量将创新高。 重庆江北国际机场T3航站楼 据介绍，春运40天，重庆江北国际机场预计保障航班 ...

春运期间，国航9架C919国产大飞机将全部投入春运航班运行，继续执飞北京至杭州、成都、武汉、西安等航线。此外，国航已完成旗下"快线"产品的整合 升级，"国航快线"覆盖13条航线。 国际方面，国航春运期间运力投入同比增长10.1%，增投航线覆盖悉尼、奥克兰、新加坡、首尔、曼谷等17条热门航线。 北京商报讯(记者关子辰牛清妍)2月2日，记者从国航获悉，春运期间国航计划执行客运航班超过7万班次，同比增长10.1%。在册飞机数量同比增加25架，日 均安排航班约1800班次，同比增加160班次。 国内方面，国航重点聚焦京津冀、长三角、粤港澳、成渝四大城市群间的近50条骨干航线，航线范围覆盖全国，航班保持高位运行。为满足旅客暖冬出行需 求，国航在华南及海南地区持续优化运力，计划执行广深相关航线航班超7000班次，其中宽体机执飞超过3000班次。海南方向，三亚航线已全部由宽体机执 飞；在客流高峰日，海口航线也将在北京、成都等关键航线上启用宽体机。 为更好服务冰雪旅游市场，国航在东北地区运力投入同比增长15%，北京、成都、上海、杭州等地至哈尔滨的航线已陆续投入宽体机运营，每周新增座位超 1.2万个。在西部地区，国航增班超50 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to test the 27,000 point level as 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, with expectations for policy initiatives in the first quarter focusing on expanding domestic demand and achieving technological self-reliance [1] - Despite geopolitical instability affecting risk appetite, the upgrade of AI large models has led to a surge in financing activities within the industry, supporting the AI market [1][7] - The Hang Seng Index reached a high of 27,381 points, but recent developments regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership have led to a rebound in the US dollar index, suggesting a potential decline in the Hang Seng Index [1] Sector Focus - The market is currently focused on manufacturing purchasing manager indices (PMI) from China, Japan, the Eurozone, and the US for January [2] Corporate News - Xiaomi delivered over 39,000 vehicles in January, while sales of the SU7 Ultra model dropped significantly in December [4] - China National Aviation Holdings is expected to report a loss of 1.9 billion RMB for the previous year [5] - The telecommunications sector is facing revenue and profit impacts due to adjustments in the value-added tax scope, with major telecom companies like China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom indicating potential effects on their financials [10] Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in January, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4, the lowest in over three years [9] - The Chinese government is considering issuing special bonds to inject 200 billion RMB into leading insurance companies, marking a significant move to strengthen the sector [9] - The overall public budget revenue in China for 2025 is projected at 21.6 trillion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.7% [9] International Developments - OPEC+ has agreed to continue suspending production increases in March, following a similar decision in January [8] - The US PPI for final demand rose by 3% year-on-year in December, exceeding expectations, indicating inflationary pressures [8]

（王潇雨 摄影） 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者王潇雨 北京报道 全球民航机队规模的迅速扩张，在为飞机制造商带来丰厚订单同时，也为航空产业链带来了更多市场空 间的增长，其中一个最重要的领域就是航空售后服务市场。 在最新发布的《全球航空服务市场预测》（Global Services Forecast，下称"GSF"）中，欧洲空中客车公 司（下称"空客"）方面预测，中国的航空售后服务市场规模预计将从2025年的248亿美元增长至2044年 的638亿美元。 全球最大市场 "全球航空售后服务市场正呈现出明显的重心东移趋势，中国也将成为市场价值最大的市场，"空客中国 副总裁、空客中国客户服务负责人赵辰在1月中旬举行的一次媒体宣讲会上对包括《华夏时报》记者在 内的媒体记者表示，"中国在机场基础设施建设和空中交通管理方面持续投入，在保持高运行效率的同 时，支撑了航空交通量的不断增长。根据空中客车全球市场预测（GMF），未来20年中国预计将接收 约9570架新飞机，这将进一步强化飞机全生命周期内对各类服务的需求。" 对于飞机制造商而言，尽管受益于空中交通运输需求的增长，每年都能够获得大量新飞机订单，且手握 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the non-ferrous metal sector is expected to benefit from the resonance between financial attributes and industrial trends, with short-term adjustments potentially providing mid-to-long-term investment opportunities [11][12] - The report notes that the A-share market is experiencing significant internal differentiation, with a potential shift in rhythm following the spring rally, although a major level switch has not yet occurred [13][14] - The report indicates that the U.S. interest rate cut cycle is not yet over, and after the current risk factors are released, the U.S. Treasury market may return to a downward yield trend [4][18] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI for January indicates a decline in both supply and demand indices, with the manufacturing sector's sentiment falling into contraction territory [21][22] - The report discusses the government's new policy to optimize and expand service supply, aiming to enhance service consumption and support economic growth through structural reforms [29][30] - The transportation sector is projected to gradually enter a profitability cycle, with significant growth expected in air cargo demand and advancements in low-altitude economy initiatives [34][35] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption, which is expected to continue growing, supported by favorable policies and structural improvements in supply [31][32] - The logistics sector is highlighted for its rapid growth, with significant advancements in automated delivery systems and international market expansion opportunities [36] - The report suggests investment opportunities in various sectors, including logistics, aviation, and low-altitude economy, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [36][37]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61% [1] - The market turnover decreased to 82.799 billion, with net inflows of 484 million in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1] - The three major indices in Hong Kong fell collectively, with the Hang Seng Index down 2.08%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 2.47%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.1% [1][5] Sector Performance - Local real estate, software, and 5G concept sectors saw significant declines, while gold stocks performed well against the market trend [1] - Gold stocks faced pressure due to fluctuations in international gold prices, with notable declines in companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (down 14.38%) and Shandong Gold Mining (down 14.31%) [1] - Conversely, education stocks rose, with China Spring (01969.HK) surging by 22.76% [1] US Market Performance - The US stock market closed positively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.73%, marking a nine-month consecutive increase [2] - Notable declines were observed in companies like Salesforce (down 19.86%) and Adobe (down 16.21%), while AMD saw an increase of 10.54% [2] Future Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of technology self-reliance and AI applications as key themes for future growth in the Hong Kong stock market [3] - The report suggests continued focus on sectors supported by policies for "technology self-reliance," including AI, semiconductors, and industrial software [3] - There is a recommendation to pay attention to sectors benefiting from domestic consumption expansion policies, as well as undervalued central state-owned enterprises with high dividends [3] Key Company Insights - China Railway (0390.HK) was highlighted for its strong performance, gaining 11.0% over the past week [3] - The report suggests that companies in the upstream non-ferrous metals sector may benefit from anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [3] Industry Highlights - The report notes that China's shipbuilding industry continues to lead globally, with significant growth in completion and order volumes [9] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the shipbuilding sector, such as China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (0317.HK) and China International Marine Containers (3899.HK) [9]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The records primarily discuss the cyclical sector, including commodities like precious metals, chemicals, oil shipping, and aviation [1][2][12]. Core Insights and Arguments Monetary Policy and Market Impact - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Kevin Walsh's hawkish position as the new Fed Chair has temporarily alleviated concerns about the Fed's independence, but his proposed policies of balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts may not effectively address issues like deficit monetization and government debt financing costs [1][27]. - **Liquidity Environment**: Both domestic and international liquidity conditions are currently loose, supporting price increases in precious and non-ferrous metals. Geopolitical instability and de-dollarization trends provide long-term support for these assets [1][4]. Commodity Performance - **Cyclical Sector Performance**: The cyclical sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance since early 2026, with significant gains in non-ferrous metals, particularly a 60% increase in precious metals in January [2][23]. - **Chemical Sector**: Despite recent price increases, the chemical sector is in a seasonal demand lull, and valuations are no longer attractive. The long-term outlook indicates a decrease in global chemical capacity growth due to reduced capital expenditure in China [5][6]. Oil Shipping Market - **High Demand and Pricing**: The oil shipping market is experiencing high demand due to OPEC+ production increases, with the VLOC freight index showing significant price increases. The market is characterized by limited supply and high demand, indicating a strong bullish outlook [1][13][14]. Aviation Sector - **Valuation and Recovery**: The aviation sector is currently facing short-term losses, but valuations have reached reasonable levels. Ticket prices are expected to recover and potentially exceed 2019 levels, with profit peaks possibly reaching 15 billion to 20 billion yuan [1][15][16]. Highway Sector - **Investment Attractiveness**: The highway sector has become more attractive relative to the broader market, with specific stocks like Sichuan Chengyu and Shenzhen International offering high dividend yields [1][17]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Factors**: The significant rise in non-ferrous metals prices in January 2026 was driven by geopolitical factors rather than traditional supply-demand dynamics, including U.S. interventions in various regions and military demand [23][25]. - **Future Trends in Chemical Industry**: The chemical industry is expected to face challenges due to stricter carbon emission regulations and reduced capital expenditure, leading to a decline in capacity growth [7][8][9]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Despite short-term price corrections, the long-term outlook for various commodities remains positive, with potential for price recovery as supply constraints and demand growth align [11][30][31]. Conclusion The cyclical sector is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by monetary policy, geopolitical factors, and sector-specific dynamics. Investment opportunities exist, particularly in oil shipping, aviation, and select highway stocks, while caution is advised in the chemical sector due to valuation concerns and regulatory pressures.