知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 2025年上半年，天津市工业企业数（以下数据涉及的工业企业，均为规模以上工业企业，从2011年起， 规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收入2000万元）为6263 个，和上年同期相比，增加了254个，同比增长4.23%，占全国的比重为1.2%。 上市公司：渤海化学（600800），桂发祥（002820），力生制药（002393），利安隆（300596），津药 药业（600488），久日新材（688199），赛象科技（002337），长荣股份（300195），建科机械 （300823），津荣天宇（300988），中重科技（603135），恒银科技（603106），广宇发展 （000537），金开新能（600821） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国工业云行业市场深度评估 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日天津国企改革板块主力资金净流出3112.61万元，游资资金净流入1302.93万元， 散户资金净流入1809.68万元。天津国企改革板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603712 | t-= | 20.86 | -1.56% | 13.64万 | 2.85 Z | | 600800 | | 3.96 | -1.49% | 17.23万 | 6865.07万 | | 000652 | 泰达股份 | 4.32 | -1.37% | 16.39万 | 7143.49万 | | 000965 | 天保基建 | 4.13 | -0.48% | 1 32.50万 | 1.35亿 | | 000897 | 津滨发展 | 2.27 | 0.00% | 17.33万 | 3936.60万 | | 002393 | 力生制药 | 23.79 | 0.34% | 11.54万 | 2.76亿 | | 600717 | 天津港 | 4.64 | 0.43% ...

金融界消息 截至2025年7月29日收盘，力生制药（002393）报收于24.34元，上涨2.4%，换手率 10.62%，成交量26.57万手，成交金额6.45亿元。 资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流入7409.39万元，占比成交额11.48%。其中，超大单净流入1977.03万 元、占成交额3.06%，大单净流入5432.35万元、占成交额8.42%，中单净流出流入615.98万元、占成交 额0.95%，小单净流出8025.37万元、占成交额12.44%。 天眼查商业履历信息显示，天津力生制药股份有限公司，成立于1981年，位于天津市，是一家以从事医 药制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本25794.2988万人民币，实缴资本25770.49万人民币。公司法定代表 人为张平。 通过天眼查大数据分析，天津力生制药股份有限公司共对外投资了12家企业，参与招投标项目5000次， 知识产权方面有商标信息57条，专利信息78条，此外企业还拥有行政许可231个。 来源：金融界 力生制药最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入3.70亿元、同比增长1.37%，归属净利 润5527.53万元，同比减少6.56%，扣非净 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [3]. Core Insights - The new centralized procurement regulations emphasize "stability in clinical use, quality assurance, prevention of collusion, and countering excessive competition," which are expected to promote the long-term healthy development of the industry [2][32]. - The report suggests focusing on recently launched innovative products, high-quality raw material suppliers, and key products that have passed the consistency evaluation for generic drugs [2][32]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index increased by 4% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.91 percentage points, ranking second in industry performance [11]. - Year-to-date, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology index has risen by 16.59%, also surpassing the CSI 300 index by 13.45 percentage points [11]. - The chemical pharmaceutical sector showed the highest growth this week at 6.86%, while traditional Chinese medicine had the lowest decline at 0.88% [16][18]. Individual Stock Performance - In the A-share market, 397 out of 474 pharmaceutical stocks rose, with the top five performers being: - Borui Pharmaceutical (+42.35%) - Lisheng Pharmaceutical (+41.68%) - Nanxin Pharmaceutical (+34.95%) - Aosai Kang (+32.77%) - Yipin Hong (+32.13%) [22]. - In the Hong Kong market, 96 out of 106 pharmaceutical stocks increased, with the top performers including: - Clover Biopharma-B (+63.79%) - Lepu Biopharma-B (+62.04%) - Deqi Pharmaceutical-B (+47.04%) [25]. Industry News and Policies - The 11th batch of national centralized drug procurement was officially launched, including 55 varieties across various therapeutic areas, focusing on clinical needs and market realities [28]. - The new procurement rules are more refined, requiring production experience and quality control capabilities from manufacturers, which will help ensure drug quality and promote industry standardization [28]. - The establishment of the "Commercial Insurance Innovative Drug Directory" marks a significant step in building a multi-tiered medical security system, providing new economic support for innovative drug development [28]. Key Company Announcements - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical reported positive results from its GLP-1/GIP dual receptor agonist HRS9531 in a Phase III weight loss study, with an average weight reduction of 19.2% in the treatment group [29][31]. - The report highlights various corporate actions, including stock incentive plans and capital increases by several companies, indicating active corporate governance and strategic investments in the sector [36].

New Stock Issuance - New stock issued by Dingjia Precision at a price of 11.16 on July 22, 2025[1] - ST Kelly's tender offer period is from July 17 to August 15, 2025[1] - ST Zitian and other companies have also announced new stock issuances[1] Market Alerts - Significant abnormal fluctuations reported for several stocks including Guangshengtang and Huayin Power[1] - Multiple companies have disclosed announcements regarding stock performance and market activities[1] - The report includes links to detailed announcements for various stocks, indicating ongoing market monitoring[1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [1][29]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has shown strong performance, with an overall increase of 4.00% in the week from July 14 to July 18, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.91 percentage points [3][11]. - Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 16.59%, ranking third among 31 industries, and has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 13.45 percentage points [3][13]. - The current PE valuation for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector stands at 30.02 times, which is at the historical median level, with a valuation premium of 137% compared to the CSI 300 index [3][17]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's sub-sectors that performed best last week include chemical pharmaceuticals (6.86%), biological products (3.68%), and medical services (3.14%) [3][11]. - A total of 397 stocks (82.88%) in the sector increased in value, while 70 stocks (14.61%) decreased [3][23]. - The top five performing stocks were: - Borui Pharmaceutical (42.35%) - Lisheng Pharmaceutical (41.68%) - Nanxin Pharmaceutical (34.95%) - Aosaikang (32.77%) - Yipinhong (32.13%) [3][24]. Industry News - The 11th batch of national centralized procurement was officially launched on July 15, with 55 drug varieties included, focusing on mature clinical drugs and excluding new drugs from procurement [4][25]. - He Yuan's plant-derived recombinant human serum albumin (HY1001) was approved for domestic marketing on July 18, aimed at treating liver cirrhosis with low albumin levels [4][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector remains a strong investment opportunity, particularly in innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices, traditional Chinese medicine, chain pharmacies, and medical services [5][27]. - Recommended stocks include: - Buy: Betta Pharmaceuticals, Teva Biologicals, Lao Baixing, Huaxia Eye Hospital, Qianhong Pharmaceutical, Baipusais [5][27]. - Focus: Kelun Pharmaceutical, Rongchang Biotechnology, Lizhu Group, Lingrui Pharmaceutical, Kaili Medical, Kangtai Biotechnology [5][27].

New Stock Issuance - The new stock issued by Hanguo Group is priced at 15.43 RMB per share[1] - The subscription period for the tender offer of ST Kelly is from July 17, 2025, to August 15, 2025[1] Abnormal Fluctuations - Several stocks, including ST Zitian and Guangshengtang, have reported severe abnormal fluctuations[2] - The announcement links for stocks experiencing abnormal fluctuations are provided for investor reference[2] Market Updates - A total of 30 stocks have been listed for trading updates, with various announcements made between July 15 and July 21, 2025[1] - The report includes links to detailed announcements for each stock, ensuring transparency and accessibility for investors[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the healthcare sector [7]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index rising by 4.00% from July 14 to July 18, 2025, surpassing the CSI 300 by 2.91 percentage points [2][12]. - Year-to-date, the Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index has increased by 16.59%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 13.45 percentage points, ranking third among 31 Shenwan primary industry indices [2][13]. - As of July 18, 2025, the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector stands at 29.88 times (TTM overall method, excluding negative values), with a premium of 153.54% compared to the CSI 300 [2][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The pharmaceutical sector's performance from July 14 to July 18, 2025, showed a 4.00% increase, ranking second among 31 industry indices [2][12]. - The sector's valuation as of July 18, 2025, is 29.88 times, with a significant premium over the CSI 300 [2][17]. - Top-performing stocks included Borui Pharmaceutical (+42.35%), Lisheng Pharmaceutical (+41.68%), and Nanxin Pharmaceutical (+34.95%) [3][18]. 2. Important Events - On July 15, the National Healthcare Security Administration held a press conference to discuss the optimization of the national drug procurement policy, announcing the selection of 55 drug varieties for the 11th batch of national procurement [4][21]. 3. Industry Perspective - The 11th batch of national procurement will implement a "low-price declaration" system, requiring the lowest-priced selected enterprises to justify their pricing, ensuring it does not fall below cost [5][22]. - The procurement will continue to exclude new drugs and focus on ensuring quality, with enhanced scrutiny on low-priced selected drugs [5][22]. - The overall procurement policy is expected to gradually improve, balancing price reductions with the need to ensure enterprise profits and public healthcare needs [5][22]. - The report expresses optimism about innovative drugs, overseas expansion, and sectors benefiting from procurement reforms, particularly in insulin and orthopedic segments [5][23].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Heston Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, serving as a market fear index. It reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility [7] - **Model Construction Process**: The Heston model is a stochastic volatility model where the variance of the asset price follows a mean-reverting square-root process. The model is defined by the following equations: $$ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW_t^S $$ $$ dv_t = \kappa (\theta - v_t) dt + \sigma \sqrt{v_t} dW_t^v $$ where: - \( S_t \): Asset price - \( v_t \): Variance of the asset price - \( \mu \): Drift term - \( \kappa \): Speed of mean reversion - \( \theta \): Long-term variance - \( \sigma \): Volatility of variance - \( W_t^S, W_t^v \): Two Wiener processes with correlation \(\rho\) [7] - **Model Evaluation**: The Heston model is widely recognized for its ability to capture the stochastic nature of volatility, making it suitable for modeling market fear indices [7] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Multi-Industry Timing Factor (Scissors Difference) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor is based on the difference in the number of stocks with bullish and bearish signals within an industry. It aims to identify timing opportunities by analyzing the divergence between bullish and bearish signals [14] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Define the number of stocks with bullish signals (\(N_{bullish}\)) and bearish signals (\(N_{bearish}\)) in an industry on a given day - If no bullish or bearish signals are present, set the respective count to 0 - Calculate the scissors difference as: $$ \text{Scissors Difference} = N_{bullish} - N_{bearish} $$ - Normalize the scissors difference to obtain a ratio: $$ \text{Scissors Ratio} = \frac{N_{bullish} - N_{bearish}}{N_{bullish} + N_{bearish}} $$ - Use this ratio to construct an industry timing strategy [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: The backtesting results show that the scissors difference timing model outperforms the respective industry indices in all cases, demonstrating excellent historical performance [14] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Heston Model - Implied volatility for major indices: - **Shanghai 50**: 13.5% (down 0.91% from last week) - **Shanghai 500**: 15.29% (down 0.11% from last week) - **CSI 1000**: 16.79% (down 1.3% from last week) - **CSI 300**: 13.65% (down 0.83% from last week) [9] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Multi-Industry Timing Factor (Scissors Difference) - Backtesting results for selected industries: - **Real Estate**: Strategy annualized return 13.18%, maximum drawdown -34.3%; Index annualized return -1.21%, maximum drawdown -75.09% - **Light Manufacturing**: Strategy annualized return 21.84%, maximum drawdown -37.91%; Index annualized return 2.76%, maximum drawdown -67.79% - **Coal**: Strategy annualized return 28.73%, maximum drawdown -24.76%; Index annualized return -0.1%, maximum drawdown -69.7% - **Pharmaceuticals**: Strategy annualized return 19.22%, maximum drawdown -42.71%; Index annualized return 6.69%, maximum drawdown -55.37% [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, with a focus on the recent improvements in the 11th batch of centralized procurement policies [2]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a 4% increase from July 14 to July 18, outperforming the Wind All A index (1.4%) and the CSI 300 index (1.09%). The optimism in the sector continues, with raw materials, chemical preparations, and other biological products leading the gains [2][7]. - The 11th batch of centralized procurement has seen improvements, allowing medical institutions to report quantities based on specific brands rather than just generic names. This change is expected to benefit mainstream pharmaceutical companies with established reputations [2][12]. - The new procurement rules aim to prevent extreme low pricing and enhance the voice of medical institutions, which is anticipated to provide better competitive positioning for mainstream brand pharmaceutical companies [2][12]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector rose by 4%, with raw materials (7.01%), chemical preparations (6.83%), and other biological products (5.85%) showing the highest increases. The only sector to decline was offline pharmacies, which fell by 2.65% [7][8]. - Notable stock performances included BoRui Pharmaceutical (42.3%), LiSheng Pharmaceutical (41.7%), and NanXin Pharmaceutical (35%), while stocks in restructuring faced declines, such as *ST SuWu (-22.3%) and ST WeiMing (-16.8%) [10]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) announced the approval of a recombinant human serum albumin product for treating liver cirrhosis [13]. - On July 15, the National Medical Insurance Administration released guidelines for the 11th batch of centralized procurement, which includes new selection criteria and aims to respect clinical medication choices [12]. - China National Pharmaceutical Group announced a significant acquisition of 95.09% of LiXin Pharmaceutical for approximately 3.5 billion yuan, enhancing its control over the company [15]. - JD Health and Innovent Biologics signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance supply chain and digital marketing efforts [15].