Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that SJM Holdings (00027) experienced a 14% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3, reaching HKD 12.163 billion, which is 96% of the same period in 2019 [1] - Adjusted EBITDA also rose by 14% year-on-year to HKD 3.341 billion, achieving 81% of the same period in 2019, aligning with market expectations of HKD 3.321 billion [1] - The report highlights that SJM's performance is impacted by increased operating expenses due to intensified market competition and the normalization of VIP room win rates [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue increased by 14% year-on-year to HKD 12.163 billion [1] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 14% year-on-year to HKD 3.341 billion [1] - Revenue for Q3 is 96% of the same period in 2019 [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 is 81% of the same period in 2019 [1] Forecast Adjustments - CICC has revised down its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for SJM by 1% and 3% for this year and next year, respectively, to HKD 14.031 billion and HKD 14.923 billion [1] Rating and Target Price - CICC maintains a "Outperform" rating for SJM Holdings [1] - The target price is set at HKD 44.8 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that SJM Holdings (00027) experienced a 14% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3, reaching HKD 12.163 billion, which is 96% of the same period in 2019 [1] - Adjusted EBITDA also rose by 14% year-on-year to HKD 3.341 billion, equating to 81% of the same period in 2019, aligning with market expectations of HKD 3.321 billion [1] - The firm notes that SJM's performance is impacted by increased operating expenses due to intensified market competition and the normalization of VIP room win rates [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue increased by 14% year-on-year to HKD 12.163 billion [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 also rose by 14% year-on-year to HKD 3.341 billion [1] - The performance metrics are 96% and 81% of the figures from the same quarter in 2019, respectively [1] Forecast Adjustments - CICC has revised down its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for SJM by 1% and 3% for this year and next year, now projecting HKD 14.031 billion and HKD 14.923 billion, respectively [1] Rating and Target Price - CICC maintains a "Outperform" rating for SJM Holdings with a target price set at HKD 44.8 [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC reports that Galaxy Entertainment's Q3 revenue increased by 14% year-on-year to HKD 12.163 billion, which is 96% of the same period in 2019 [1] - Adjusted EBITDA also rose by 14% year-on-year to HKD 3.341 billion, reaching 81% of the same period in 2019, aligning with market expectations of HKD 3.321 billion [1] Financial Performance - The increase in revenue and EBITDA is attributed to heightened market competition leading to increased operating expenses and the normalization of VIP room win rates [1] - CICC has revised down its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for this year and next year by 1% and 3% to HKD 14.031 billion and HKD 14.923 billion, respectively [1] Investment Rating - CICC maintains an "outperform" rating for Galaxy Entertainment with a target price set at HKD 44.8 [1]

Macro Insights - Core inflation in China rebounded in October 2025, with CPI rising 0.2% year-on-year compared to a previous decline of 0.3%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus expectation of -0.1% [2] - The global manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery in October, remaining above the threshold for the third consecutive month, indicating resilience in the global manufacturing cycle despite a marginal decline in new export orders [2][3] - The U.S. employment data showed mixed results, with ADP employment figures exceeding expectations, while uncertainty around tariff policies increased due to potential legal challenges [3] Industrial Production and Exports - High-frequency indicators from ports showed a slight year-on-year recovery, suggesting a marginal improvement in export sentiment for November, while industrial production remained resilient [4] - October exports experienced a short-term disturbance, declining to -1.1% year-on-year from a previous 8.3% [4] Investment Strategy - The A-share market showed a rebound, led by manufacturing and cyclical sectors, while technology stocks continued to adjust [5] - The report suggests a shift in focus towards profit-driven investment strategies, with an emphasis on advanced manufacturing and consumer sectors as signs of economic recovery emerge [5] - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on dividend stocks and small-cap stocks, while maintaining a balanced sector allocation [7] Commodity Market - Commodity strategies showed a slight increase of 0.57% over the past two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 3.17% [8] - The report highlights a strong performance in the commodity term structure simulation, particularly in agricultural products and industrial metals, while energy and chemical sectors faced declines [8] Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market is experiencing a tug-of-war at key levels, with expectations of a narrow trading range in the short term due to concerns over AI bubbles and year-end profit-taking [13] - The report notes a seasonal effect in the bond market, with expectations for a year-end rally despite pressures from rising interest rates and market dynamics [14] Transportation Sector - The transportation sector showed strong profitability in Q3 2025, with airports, oil transportation, and railways performing well, while logistics and express delivery exhibited mixed results [17] - The report recommends specific stocks in the transportation sector that are expected to benefit from ongoing profitability improvements [17] Energy and New Power - The recent white paper on carbon neutrality emphasizes the importance of new energy storage and grid upgrades, indicating a favorable outlook for related sectors [18] - The report identifies three key areas for investment: new energy and storage, grid upgrades, and traditional power sources [18] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is undergoing transformation, with opportunities arising from supply innovations and changing consumer preferences [19] - The report highlights trends in various consumer segments, including beauty and lifestyle products, indicating potential for growth in these areas [19] Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in product demand due to supply-side reforms and improved pricing dynamics [27] - Specific companies within the chemical sector are recommended based on their potential to benefit from these trends [27][30]

Core Viewpoint - The closure of the Emperor Palace Casino in Macau, owned by entertainment tycoon Yang Shoucheng, highlights the challenges faced by satellite casinos amid regulatory changes and financial difficulties within the Emperor Group [4][7][22]. Summary by Sections Casino Closure - The Emperor Palace Casino has ceased operations, with its signage changed from "casino" to hotel promotions, reflecting its transition [6][10]. - The closure is part of a broader trend where many satellite casinos in Macau are set to stop operations by the end of the year due to regulatory changes [7][19]. Financial Impact - The casino's closure is significant for the Emperor Group, which is currently facing a debt crisis. The casino was a stable source of cash flow, contributing significantly to the group's finances [7][14]. - Prior to its closure, the casino had already reduced operations, with only slot machines remaining active, generating limited revenue compared to table games [9][12]. Historical Context - The Emperor Palace Casino opened in 2006 and quickly gained popularity, generating approximately 1.2 billion HKD in revenue in its first fiscal year [11]. - Despite its initial success, the casino's performance declined, especially during the pandemic, leading to consecutive years of losses [14][15]. Regulatory Environment - The Macau government has mandated that all satellite casinos must either cease operations or be acquired by licensed operators by the end of 2025, impacting the future of many such establishments [19][22]. - Other satellite casinos, including those owned by major operators, have also begun to close, indicating a significant shift in the Macau gaming landscape [20][21]. Market Trends - Despite the closures, reports indicate that Macau's gaming industry is experiencing a resurgence, with potential revenue growth expected in the coming months [22]. - Analysts predict that October's gaming revenue could reach between 23.3 billion to 24.1 billion HKD, marking a six-year high [22].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on cloud vendors and companies with exceeding expectations in the current market environment [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in market performance, with consumer companies facing pressure while AI technology companies continue to show mixed results. Concerns about AI valuation bubbles persist, but leading tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Meta maintain strong cash flows, suggesting a stable outlook for cloud vendors [3]. - The gaming demand remains robust, although there is a short-term lack of new game releases. Attention is drawn to the progress of key game tests and launches, which could drive revenue growth for related companies [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring quarterly reports from major Chinese companies like Tencent, JD, Baidu, and Alibaba, as well as the ongoing value in sectors like PDD and the gaming industry [3]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - **Education**: The education index fell by 3.59%, with notable performance differences among companies. The implementation of a spring and autumn break system in Sichuan is expected to impact the sector positively [11][18]. - **Luxury & Gaming**: The luxury goods and gaming sectors are closely tied to macroeconomic conditions. Recent Q3 earnings from major gaming companies exceeded expectations, benefiting from a longer holiday schedule in 2026 [19][24]. - **Coffee & Tea**: The coffee sector remains vibrant, while the tea sector faces challenges due to reduced delivery platform subsidies and seasonal competition [3][27]. - **E-commerce**: The e-commerce sector is under pressure, with a lackluster performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival [3][35]. 1.2 Platform & Technology - **Streaming Platforms**: The streaming sector is driven by domestic demand, with platforms like Spotify reporting better-than-expected earnings [3][42]. - **Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers**: The cryptocurrency market is experiencing volatility, with a significant drop in global market value. However, there are potential buying opportunities following recent corrections [3][43]. - **Automotive Services**: The automotive aftermarket is projected to decline, with a year-over-year decrease of 4% expected by October 2025 [3][61]. 1.3 Media - The media sector is experiencing mixed performance, with streaming services facing challenges but also opportunities for growth through strategic partnerships and content offerings [3][41].

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Entertainment reported strong financial results for 3Q25, with net revenue and adjusted EBITDA both increasing by 14% year-over-year, aligning with expectations. The company maintains a positive outlook with a target price of HK$50, indicating a 30% upside potential, and continues to hold a Buy rating [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company's rolling chip volume increased by 46% year-over-year, mass gaming revenue rose by 13% year-over-year, and slot revenue grew by 14% year-over-year. Total gross gaming revenue, mass market revenue, slot machine revenue, and VIP rolling chip volume have recovered to 90%, 138%, 125%, and 41% of 3Q19 levels, respectively. EBITDA has recovered to 81% of the 2019 level [2]. New Developments - The majority of Capella at Galaxy Macau and Horizon Plus have opened, with all facilities expected to be fully operational by early next year. The upgrade program for StarWorld is anticipated to be completed by 2026, while the construction of Galaxy Macau Phase 4 is expected to finish in 2027, featuring several high-end hotel brands, a theater with approximately 5,000 seats, green gardens, a water resort deck, and a casino [3]. Non-Gaming Initiatives - In the first nine months of 2025, the company hosted around 260 entertainment, sports, arts and culture, and MICE events, leading to a 41% year-over-year increase in foot traffic at Galaxy Macau. Additionally, the company has established a four-year strategic partnership with the Ultimate Fighting Championship, renewed a three-year strategic partnership with Tencent Music, and renewed a three-year cooperation agreement with Damai Entertainment under Alibaba Group and Macau Pass for event ticketing [4].

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Entertainment's Q3 2025 performance aligns with market expectations, showing a revenue of HKD 12.163 billion, a 14% year-on-year increase and a 1% quarter-on-quarter increase, recovering to 96% of Q3 2019 levels [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for the company was HKD 3.341 billion, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase but a 6% quarter-on-quarter decline, recovering to 81% of Q3 2019 levels, closely matching Bloomberg's expectation of HKD 3.321 billion [1] - The increase in operational expenditure and normalization of VIP business win rates are identified as key factors affecting performance [1] Development Trends - Galaxy aims for a total gaming revenue market share of 20-22%, with strong performance noted in October 2025 due to higher VIP business win rates [1] - Management observed an improvement in demand in the last weeks of October 2025, with expectations for a strong finish in Q4 2025 [1] - One-time marketing expenses during the summer led to a 300 basis point decline in profit margins, while average fixed operating costs remained stable compared to Q2 2025 [1] - The company plans to host large concerts and sports events in Macau, having signed partnerships with UFC, Tencent, and Damai for various events and services [1] - Galaxy intends to relocate some gaming tables from Galaxy Macau to the StarWorld Hotel, anticipating demand from existing satellite casino customers after the satellite casino's closure at the end of 2025 [1] - Phase 4 of Galaxy is expected to be completed by 2027, with Broadway potentially serving as future land reserves for redesign or reconstruction for Phase 5 expansion [1] - Despite delays in the legalization of Thai gambling, Galaxy remains interested in investment opportunities in Thailand [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to increased operational expenditures, the adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 1% and 3% to HKD 14.031 billion and HKD 14.923 billion, respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to 9 times the 2026 EV/Adjusted EBITDA, with a maintained "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 44.80, indicating a 16% upside potential based on an 11 times 2026 EV/Adjusted EBITDA valuation [2]

Simon：大家好，這一節我們來看一些關於窩輪產品方面的情況。和之前一樣，我們會提到幾只個股，都是大家比較關注或者有過點評的股票。之後，我們 也會和大家一起看看這些個股對應的衍生品情況。 第一只個股：泡泡瑪特（09992）。我們先來看它今天的股價走勢。股價方面，其實今天這只股票算不上讓大家開心的一只。雖然之前也提到過，今天大盤 其實是有所回升的，但泡泡瑪特的走勢相對來說，並沒有特別大的漲幅。當然，今天還是有輕微的小幅上漲，以收盤價計算，來到了217.6元。不過在今天 的盤中，它曾經觸及過低點，去到209元附近。所以整體來說，只能用謹慎樂觀來形容。 所以今天的股價走勢，我相信確實讓不少投資者捏了一把汗，畢竟曾經跌到過這樣的低位。但還是有投資者始終保持樂觀的看法，認為它有機會漲到220 元，甚至230元這樣的水準。其實這種樂觀，從技術信號總結來看，暫時也是可以得到印證的。技術信號方面，目前買入信號是占多數的。所以從市場氣氛 來看，雖然這一波跌得比較厲害，但會不會在下跌一段之後出現技術性調整，進而回升呢？這是大家可以思考的一個問題。從技術信號總結來看，目前買入 信號暫時略占上風。 接下來我們看看相關產品情況，比如9 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Galaxy Entertainment (00027) achieved an EBITDA of approximately HKD 3.3 billion in Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 14% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6% [1] Financial Performance - EBITDA of HKD 3.3 billion aligns with UBS and market expectations, even when adjusting for VIP room win rate impacts [1] - Mass gaming revenue increased by 6% quarter-on-quarter, driven by the normalization of mass table win rates, outperforming the industry’s quarter-on-quarter growth of approximately 2-3% [1] - VIP gaming revenue grew by about 17% quarter-on-quarter; however, due to a win rate of only 3.1%, VIP revenue experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 15% from a high base [1] Operational Insights - The operation of the Capella Hotel is gradually stabilizing, leading to increased costs, with average daily operating expenses and reinvestment rates rising by 9% and 110 basis points quarter-on-quarter, respectively [1] - The luck-adjusted EBITDA margin (excluding construction business) remains around 27.5% [1] Investment Rating - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Galaxy Entertainment with a target price of HKD 46.9 [1]