Summary of CMOC Research Call Company Overview - **Company**: CMOC (China Molybdenum Co., Ltd.) - **Ticker**: 603993.SS / 3993.HK - **Industry**: Non-ferrous metals, primarily mining and processing - **Key Assets**: Tenke Fungurume Mine (TFM) and Kisanfu Mine (KFM) in DR Congo, leading producer of tungsten, cobalt, niobium, molybdenum, and a major copper producer Key Financial Updates - **Target Price Revision**: - H-share target price raised to HK$28.3 from HK$20.6 - A-share target price raised to Rmb25.5 from Rmb19.0 - Target price implies 16.2x PE for H-share and 16.3x PE for A-share based on DCF valuation [1][5][32] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - Revised net profit estimates for 2025/26/27E increased by 3.8%/34.2%/17.5% to Rmb20.5bn/33.9bn/31.8bn, respectively [1][4][9] - **Earnings Breakdown**: - Expected EBIT from TFM+KFM at Rmb47.2bn in 2026E, covering 82% of total EBIT - Contributions from other segments: Moly and Tungsten (8%), Brazil gold assets (6%), Niobium and Phosphate (3%) [3] Brazil Gold Assets Acquisition - **Acquisition Details**: Completed in January 2026, expected to produce 7.1 tons of gold in 2026E - **Financial Impact**: Anticipated contribution of Rmb2.4bn to net profit, accounting for 7% of total net profit based on a gold price forecast of US$4,600/oz [2][4] Market and Price Sensitivity - **Copper and Cobalt Price Sensitivity**: - Net profit sensitivity analysis indicates significant impact from fluctuations in copper and cobalt prices [10] - **Gold Price Sensitivity**: - Net profit also sensitive to changes in gold prices, with a base case at US$4,600/oz [12] Investment Strategy - **Rating**: Maintained as "Buy" due to positive business fundamentals, including expected output increases from TFM and KFM expansion projects and bullish medium-term copper price outlook driven by renewable energy demand [31][35] Risks - **Key Risks**: - Slowing grid investment in China - Weaker-than-expected real estate investment affecting copper demand - Acceleration of global mine supply could negatively impact prices [33][37] Conclusion - CMOC is positioned for growth with revised profit forecasts and strategic acquisitions, while maintaining a positive outlook on copper prices and operational expansions. However, investors should remain cautious of potential market risks that could affect performance.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the long-term logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid, with gold's role shifting from an inflation hedge to a geopolitical risk and dollar credit weakening hedge [1][22]. - As of the end of January, China's official gold reserves reached 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces compared to December 2025, marking the 15th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the People's Bank of China [1][17]. - The precious metals market is influenced by factors such as global central bank gold purchases, a weakening dollar, and the restructuring of the global monetary system [1][22]. Group 2 - The non-ferrous mining ETF tracks the upstream mining segment of the non-ferrous metal industry, showing strong price elasticity and higher beta values, particularly in commodity bull markets or inflationary environments [2]. - The non-ferrous mining index has achieved a cumulative increase of 279.71% over the past decade, outperforming mainstream non-ferrous indices [2][12]. - The index's annualized return over the past decade is 14.71%, with a volatility of 30.04% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.63, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [15]. Group 3 - The non-ferrous mining index is heavily weighted towards copper, gold, and aluminum, which together account for over 58% of the index [7]. - Key components of the index include Zijin Mining (9.44% weight), Luoyang Molybdenum (9.25% weight), and Northern Rare Earth (5.69% weight) [10]. - The index's performance is characterized by higher elasticity compared to similar indices, reflecting its strategic significance in both industrial development and financial markets [12][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the fluctuations in the rare metals sector, with the China Securities Rare Metals Theme Index experiencing a slight decline of 0.11% as of February 10, 2026, while individual stocks showed mixed performance [1] - The lithium battery supply chain saw a significant price increase from 40,000 yuan/ton to a peak of 600,000 yuan/ton between 2020 and 2022, marking a 14-fold increase, but current expansion intentions are notably lower than in 2021, indicating limited new supply in 2026 [1] - The tungsten market is expected to see continuous price increases due to tight supply and steady demand, with the strategic value of tungsten being reassessed as it is a key metal for export control [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Rare Metals Theme Index account for 59.71% of the index, including companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Ganfeng Lithium [2] - The Rare Metals ETF (562800) serves as a convenient tool for investors looking to gain exposure to the rare metals sector [2] - Investors can also consider the Rare Metals ETF linked fund (014111) to explore investment opportunities in the rare metals sector [3]

Group 1 - Precious metals have regained upward momentum, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.1% to $5084.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 8% to $83.05 per ounce [1] - CITIC Securities indicates that uncertainties driven by the Trump administration's policies and the midterm elections may remain high, but an optimistic outlook for the gold market is still possible, which could positively influence other precious metals [1] - The bullish trend in non-ferrous metals is anticipated to continue into 2026, especially if leading indicators for infrastructure and manufacturing in China and the U.S. show improvement [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the National Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has its top ten weighted stocks including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 49.87% of the index [2] - The Non-Ferrous ETF Penghua closely tracks the National Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector [2]

Group 1 - Industrial metal prices continue to rise, with LME copper up by $182, reaching $13,176 per ton, LME aluminum up by $40 to $3,126 per ton, LME zinc up by $30 to $3,376 per ton, LME lead up by $10 to $1,970 per ton, LME nickel up by $259 to $17,349 per ton, and LME tin up by $2,380 to $49,098 per ton [1] - Zhongyou Securities indicates that copper prices are expected to rebound due to better downstream feedback and lower-than-expected production from overseas copper companies, alongside strong downstream stocking ahead of the holiday [1] - The aluminum market may face demand suppression due to high prices, with some aluminum processing companies planning extended holiday breaks, although there has been some improvement in downstream orders following price declines [1] Group 2 - The Zhongzhong Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) rose by 0.78%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Dongyangguang up by 3.93%, Xiyeshu up by 2.40%, Shenghe Resources up by 1.88%, Luoyang Molybdenum up by 1.74%, and Jiangxi Copper up by 1.53% [1] - The Penghua Industrial Nonferrous ETF closely tracks the Zhongzhong Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, which includes 30 large-cap companies involved in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare earth metals [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzhong Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index account for 55.71% of the index, including companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum [2]

每经AI快讯，洛阳钼业(03993.HK)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.09%，报22.9港元，成交额2.37亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rise in non-ferrous metal stocks on February 10, with notable gains among several companies in the sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Nuclear International (02302.HK) experienced a surge of over 12.7% [1] - China General Nuclear Power Corporation Mining (01164.HK) increased by more than 7% [1] - Jiangxi Copper Company (00358.HK) and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) both rose nearly 4% [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) and Zijin Mining (02899.HK) each saw gains exceeding 2.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 22.9, following the completion of a USD 1.015 billion acquisition of a gold mine in Brazil, which has reserves of 3.87 million ounces at an average grade of 1.45 grams per ton [1] Group 1: Acquisition and Production Plans - The acquisition of the Brazilian gold mine is expected to synergize with the company's existing copper and cobalt businesses, enhancing overall profitability [1] - Management plans to contribute 6-8 tons of gold production by 2026, with a target to increase annual production to 20 tons before 2030 [1] Group 2: Profitability and Production Guidance - Morgan Stanley has raised the company's profit expectations for 2026-2027 by 27%-30%, anticipating over 50% profit growth for consecutive years [1] - The copper production guidance for 2026 is set at 760,000 to 820,000 tons, driven by process optimization and technological upgrades at TFM and KFM mines [1] - The KFM Phase II project is expected to commence production in 2027, adding approximately 100,000 tons of copper capacity annually [1] - The target for copper production in 2028 is set at 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons, with the TFM Phase III project currently undergoing feasibility studies for additional capacity [1] - The company aims to further optimize copper business unit costs by reducing bulk material procurement prices and maintaining leading capital expenditure and operational cost levels globally [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) has seen a stock increase of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 22.9 with a transaction volume of HKD 237 million, following the completion of a USD 1.015 billion acquisition of a gold mine in Brazil, which has reserves of 3.87 million ounces at an average grade of 1.45 grams per ton [1] Group 1: Acquisition and Production Plans - The acquisition of the Brazilian gold mine is expected to synergize with the company's existing copper and cobalt businesses, enhancing overall profitability [1] - Management plans to contribute 6-8 tons of gold production by 2026 and aims to increase annual production to 20 tons before 2030 [1] Group 2: Profitability and Production Guidance - Morgan Stanley has raised the company's profit expectations for 2026-2027 by 27%-30%, anticipating over 50% profit growth for consecutive years [1] - The copper production guidance for 2026 is set at 760,000 to 820,000 tons, driven by process optimization and technological upgrades at TFM and KFM mines [1] - The KFM Phase II project is expected to commence production in 2027, adding approximately 100,000 tons of copper capacity annually [1] Group 3: Cost Optimization - The company aims to further optimize unit costs in its copper business by reducing the procurement price of bulk materials and maintaining leading levels of capital expenditure and operational costs globally [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant performance of rare metal ETFs and the rising prices of rare earth elements, particularly praseodymium and neodymium, driven by supply constraints and increased demand in high-end applications [1][2] Group 2 - As of February 10, 2026, the CSI Rare Metal Theme Index (930632) increased by 0.13%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Shenghe Resources (up 3.94%) and Xiamen Tungsten (up 2.13%) [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metal Theme Index account for 59.71% of the index, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Northern Rare Earth leading the list [1] - The rare metal ETF fund (561800) experienced a scale growth of 9.7447 million yuan in the past week, with a share increase of 10 million units [1] - Over a 21-day trading period, the rare metal ETF fund saw net inflows on 13 days, totaling 45.9237 million yuan [1] Group 3 - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium have surged, with praseodymium oxide and metal prices rising by 7.59% and 6.27% respectively on February 9, 2026, and a year-to-date increase of 34% for praseodymium oxide [2] - A research institution predicts a further decline in praseodymium and neodymium production in February due to tight raw material supply, which may lead to continued price increases [2] - According to Wucai Securities, small metal prices are expected to rise by approximately 78% in 2025, with tungsten leading at a 343% increase and praseodymium oxide at 97%, reflecting a revaluation of strategic resources driven by resource competition and technological advancements [2] - The rare metal ETF fund tracks the CS Rare Metal Index, which primarily allocates to lithium carbonate, small metals, and rare earth sectors, with lithium content between 30% and 40%, making it a top investment tool for rare metal industry exposure [2]