马年首个交易日（2月24日）有色金属板块火力全开，强势上涨，板块热门ETF——有色ETF （159876）场内价格最高涨超3.7%，收涨3.18%。值得关注的是，该ETF全天获资金净申购600万份，反 映资金看好板块后市，积极进场抢筹！ 成份股方面，白银有色、湖南白银双双涨停，钒钛股份、盛新锂能涨超7%，永兴材料、铜陵有色、西 部黄金、兴业银锡等个股大幅跟涨。 综合市场观点来看，近期黄金、白银再度走强，与市场避险情绪升温密切相关，而驱动因素主要来自两 个方面： 1、关税扰动方面，特朗普10%的全球关税生效。美国最高法院裁决特朗普政府大规模关税"越权"、废 除关税权限后，特朗普随即签署行政令，宣布自2月24日起对全球商品加征10%进口关税，并于21日将 税率上调至15%。美国高层在关税政策上的博弈，加大了美国政策与未来经济走势双重的不确定性。 2、地缘政治方面，美伊局势的反复摇摆。当前美伊谈判未有实质性进展且美国不断在伊朗周边"重兵集 结"，此外以色列再度空袭黎巴嫩且试图改变约旦河西岸现状。 瑞银认为，地缘政治风险将持续高企，而美联储宽松周期预计将继续，对实际利率构成压力。2025年全 球黄金需求突破5000吨 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals have regained upward momentum, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.1% to $5084.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 8% to $83.05 per ounce [1] - CITIC Securities indicates that uncertainties driven by the Trump administration's policies and the midterm elections may remain high, but an optimistic outlook for the gold market is still possible, which could positively influence other precious metals [1] - The bullish trend in non-ferrous metals is anticipated to continue into 2026, especially if leading indicators for infrastructure and manufacturing in China and the U.S. show improvement [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the National Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has its top ten weighted stocks including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 49.87% of the index [2] - The Non-Ferrous ETF Penghua closely tracks the National Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector [2]

Group 1: Copper Market - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper fell by 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton [2] - Import copper concentrate processing fee index dropped to -$52.37 per ton; national copper inventory increased by 4.03% week-on-week and by 62,700 tons year-on-year [2] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises is at 66.88%, down by 8.19 percentage points; expected to decline further to 38.36% next week [2] Group 2: Aluminum Market - LME aluminum price fell by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum decreased by 5.07% to ¥23,300 per ton [3] - Domestic aluminum rod inventory increased by 15,000 tons to 258,500 tons; metallurgical-grade alumina total production capacity is 110.32 million tons/year [3] - Aluminum processing comprehensive operating rate recorded at 57.9%, down by 1.5 percentage points week-on-week [3] Group 3: Gold Market - COMEX gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce; SPDR gold holdings decreased by 10.87 tons to 1,076.23 tons [4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield curve reached its steepest level in nearly four years, influenced by rising rate cut expectations and concerns over inflation [4] - Geopolitical risks have led to a strong fluctuation in the gold market [4] Group 4: Rare Earth and Tungsten Markets - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 1.20% this week; December rare earth permanent magnet exports reached a historical high [5] - Tungsten prices rose by 11.98% due to tight supply and increased support for pricing [5] - Tin prices decreased by 15.81%, but the upward trend is expected to continue despite recent volatility [5] Group 5: Lithium and Cobalt Markets - Lithium carbonate average price decreased by 13.3% to ¥148,000 per ton; lithium hydroxide average price fell by 11.6% to ¥150,000 per ton [6] - Cobalt prices decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton; cobalt intermediate prices remained stable [6] - Nickel prices fell by 1.8% to $17,200 per ton on LME [6] Group 6: Nickel Inventory - Port nickel ore inventory decreased by 638,100 tons to 11.08 million tons [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper price on LME decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, while the Shanghai copper price fell by 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton. The copper inventory in major regions increased by 4.03% week-on-week, and total inventory rose by 6,270 tons year-on-year [1][14] - The aluminum price on LME dropped by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum price decreased by 5.07% to ¥23,300 per ton. The aluminum processing industry showed a comprehensive operating rate of 57.9%, down by 1.5% week-on-week [2][15] - The gold price on COMEX increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and rising expectations of interest rate cuts [3][16] - The rare earth sector saw a price increase for praseodymium and neodymium oxide by 1.20%, with expectations of improved demand due to relaxed export policies [4][35] - Tungsten prices rose by 11.98% due to tight supply conditions, while tin prices fell by 15.81% amid inventory depletion [4][38] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, and Shanghai copper price fell by 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton. The processing fee index dropped to -$52.37 per ton. Copper inventory increased by 4.03% week-on-week [1][14] - The operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 60.15%, with an increase of 0.69% week-on-week. The industry maintained stable production due to new orders from State Grid [1][14] Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum price fell by 5.07% to ¥23,300 per ton. The aluminum processing industry showed a comprehensive operating rate of 57.9%, down by 1.5% week-on-week [2][15] - The operating rate for primary aluminum alloy dropped to 57.9% due to holiday impacts and high aluminum prices [2][15] Precious Metals - COMEX gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts [3][16] - SPDR gold holdings decreased by 10.87 tons to 1,076.23 tons [3][16] Rare Earths - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 1.20%. December exports of rare earth permanent magnets showed a year-on-year increase of 7% [4][35] - The sector is expected to benefit from relaxed export policies and increased demand [4][36] Tungsten and Tin - Tungsten prices rose by 11.98% due to tight supply conditions, while tin prices fell by 15.81% amid inventory depletion [4][38] - The supply of tin is expected to remain tight due to lower-than-expected production from Indonesia and Myanmar [4][38] Lithium and Cobalt - Lithium carbonate price decreased by 13.3% to ¥148,000 per ton, while lithium hydroxide price fell by 11.6% to ¥150,000 per ton. The total lithium production was 20,700 tons, down slightly [4][53] - Cobalt price decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, with stable prices for cobalt intermediates [5][54]

Summary of Aluminum Industry and Company Insights Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal bull market is driven by geopolitical factors, a weak dollar, and abundant liquidity, with fundamental aspects being less significant, particularly in precious metals [1][2] - The electrolytic aluminum industry has strong cash flow and high dividend willingness, with a reasonable valuation range of 12-15 times [1][4] - Short-term risks include geopolitical weakening, which may lead to concentrated position releases and increased market volatility [1][7] Key Insights on Aluminum Prices and Valuation - Recent trends show a significant increase in the valuation and space of the electrolytic aluminum sector, with prices nearing 26,000 yuan per ton [2] - The valuation of major electrolytic aluminum stocks is estimated at 8-10 times based on a 24,000 yuan average price, and around 8 times at 25,000 yuan [2] - If aluminum prices remain below 24,000 yuan per ton, there is still over 30% upside potential for non-ferrous metal stocks [8] Company-Specific Developments - Nanhai Aluminum plans to establish a production capacity of 1 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, starting operations in 2027, with a total dividend rate potentially reaching 100% [3][10] - Other companies to watch include Chuangying Industrial, Huadong Line, and Baitong Energy, which are involved in various projects and have growth potential [3][11] Investment Opportunities and Stock Selection - The electrolytic aluminum sector is attractive due to its natural barriers and strong cash flow, requiring minimal capital expenditure [4] - Companies like Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo, and Zhongfu are highlighted for their profit elasticity due to low alumina production capacity [9] - Tianshan, Hongqiao Hongchuang, and Palm are recommended for their stability and dividend potential [9] - Nanhai Aluminum is noted for its growth potential and high dividend characteristics, making it a recommended stock [9][10] Future Outlook - The sector is expected to enter a stable development phase due to tightening supply and improved profitability [5] - The reasonable valuation for the sector is projected to remain between 12-15 times, with potential for higher levels if aluminum prices rise further [6] - Seasonal pressures and insufficient downstream demand may cause short-term volatility, but a post-holiday price increase is anticipated if prices stabilize around 25,000 yuan [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant surge in the performance of the Huabao Nonferrous Metal ETF (159876), which has reached a historical high with a price increase of over 4.2% and a current rise of 3.55% [1] - The Huabao Nonferrous Metal ETF has seen a net subscription of 12.9 million units, with a total inflow of 856 million yuan over the past 20 days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Key stocks within the nonferrous metal sector, such as Silver Nonferrous, Hunan Gold, and Western Gold, have hit the daily limit, while others like Huafeng Aluminum and Tongling Nonferrous have risen over 8% [1][2] Group 2 - International gold prices have reached a new high of $5,220 per ounce, driven by various macroeconomic events and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The World Gold Council reported that international gold prices surged by 67% in 2025, marking the most significant increase since 1979, while domestic gold prices rose by 58% [3] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing bullish sentiment in the gold market may continue, influenced by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and geopolitical uncertainties [3][4] Group 3 - The market is currently witnessing a comprehensive bull market in nonferrous metals, with significant price increases across various metals including gold, silver, copper, and lithium [4] - Investment strategies recommend maintaining a 10%-20% allocation in the nonferrous metal sector within investment portfolios to capitalize on potential price increases while diversifying risk [3] - The Huabao Nonferrous Metal ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of metals, allowing investors to better capture the overall sector's performance [3]

太强了！今日（1月27日）有色ETF华宝（159876）继续逆市活跃，场内价格现涨1.12%，冲击日线7连 阳，再创历史新高！开盘不足一小时，实时成交额1.94亿元，交投火热！ 资金加速抢筹！截至发稿，有色ETF华宝（159876）获资金实时净申购1.42亿份，拉长时间来看，近20 日狂揽10.28亿元！数据显示，截至1月26日，该ETF最新规模21.6亿元，创历史新高！ | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交額 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 湖南黄金 | 10.01% | | 有色金属 | 贵金属 | 黄金 | 434亿 | 5001.62万 | | 2 | 白银有色 | 9.90% | | 有色金属 | 工业金属 | 相 | 929亿 | 64.04亿 | | 3 | 紫金矿业 | 7.16% | Now | 有色金属 | 工业会展 | 报 | 11128亿 | 175.40亿 | | प | 西部黄金 | 6.20% | P ...

仅考虑玉龙三期投产，公司铜（利润 60 亿）+ 铅锌铁等（利润 10 亿），利润体量可达 70 亿以上； 叠加玉龙四期、茶亭带来的成长性，打开估值空间，给 15 倍估值，初步目标市值 1000 亿！ 2. 金徽股份：现有 30 吨白银，成长性开始显现，未来产量能翻倍 2025 年产能规划： 计划产量 10 万吨铅锌 + 30 吨白银，按当前价格计算，铅锌贡献利润 6-7 亿、白银贡献 4 亿 +，利润贡献占比超 4 成，白银属性明显。 1. 西部矿业：恢复成长，估值弹性最大 玉龙三期顺利推进，四期已在规划中： 玉龙三期 2026 年底投产，达产后规模为 3000 万吨 / 年，铜产量 20 万吨； 四期已开始规划，未来总规模将达 4500 万吨 / 年； 尾矿库三期已预留，项目建设预计进展较快，四期预计可新增 5 万吨铜产量。 茶亭资源潜力大，规划 "十五五"末投产： 2026 年 6 月左右预计完成资 1. 西部矿业：恢复成长，估值弹性最大 玉龙三期顺利推进，四期已在规划中： 玉龙三期 2026 年底投产，达产后规模为 3000 万吨 / 年，铜产量 20 万吨； 四期已开始规划，未来总规模将达 4500 ...

伴随火热的行情，资金狂涌！有色ETF华宝（159876）昨天单日吸金1.74亿元，拉长时间来看，近10日狂揽7.17亿元。截至1月26日，该ETF最新规模21.6 亿元，刷新上市以来的高点！ 消息面上，昨日（1月26日）现货黄金首次突破5000美元/盎司的关键心理整数关口，全球金融市场得以见证历史性记录的诞生。华西证券指出，受美联储 降息预期、美元信用不稳、美国中期选举以及地缘政治不确定性的影响，金价有望进一步上涨。 固然市场整体看涨黄金后市表现，东方金诚指出，短期需警惕投机资金获利了结风险，金价波动可能加大*。华泰证券建议，中配有色金属板块*，即在自 己的基金组合中占比10%-20%，既能够分享有色金属上涨红利，还能够分散风险。 昨日（1月27日）有色金属板块逆市领涨全行业，中金黄金、兴业银锡、铜陵有色等11股涨停，有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格暴涨4.77%，全天成交 额2.21亿元，量价齐创历史新高！ *机构观点参考资料来源：①东方金诚2026年1月20日发布的《美联储独立性担忧再起，金价震荡上行》；②华泰证券2026年1月8日发布的《景气拐点初现 的驱动有哪些？——中观景气与战术配置月报》；③ ...

Summary of Conference Call on Metal and Resource Market Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal market is expected to maintain strong growth in 2026, with a baseline increase of 30% to 50% driven by both EPS and PE improvements. The current non-ferrous metal index still has room for growth [1][3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended investment order: 1. Gold 2. Silver 3. Tin 4. Minor metals (Tungsten, Uranium) 5. Basic industrial metals (Copper, Aluminum) - Precious metals are preferred due to their price increase trends and PE expansion potential. Minor metals show good price elasticity, while basic industrial metals have long-term value [1][5] Gold Market Insights - Current gold price is $1,150 per ounce, with an upward trend expected to continue due to geopolitical factors driving safe-haven demand. Related companies have a PE of only 12-13 times, indicating significant investment potential [1][6] - The gold industry is projected to see a PE increase to at least 15 times, suggesting further upside [6][24] Silver Market Insights - Silver price is nearing $30,000 per ton, with significant growth potential. Companies like Shengda Resources show promising prospects. The silver market is expected to present substantial investment opportunities in the next couple of years, potentially reaching ten times the current price by 2027 [1][7][9] Tin Market Challenges and Projections - The tin market faces supply concentration risks, particularly in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The semiconductor industry's rapid growth is creating a supply gap. Tin prices are expected to reach 450,000 yuan by 2027, with related companies' PE potentially reaching 18 to 20 times [1][10] Tungsten Market Dynamics - China controls a significant portion of global tungsten supply, with stable demand from military and nuclear sectors. A global tungsten shortfall exceeding 5% is anticipated from 2026 to 2027, with prices expected to rise to 600,000 yuan [1][11] Copper Market Challenges - The copper market is facing headwinds from high inventories and geopolitical factors. Current copper prices are fluctuating around 100,000 yuan, with a potential decrease in volatility. Companies like Zijin Mining have a market cap of 1 trillion yuan, corresponding to a PE of 16 times, indicating safety in holding or increasing positions [1][4][14] Aluminum Market Overview - The aluminum market is experiencing price increases, currently ranging from 24,000 to 25,000 yuan, with potential to stabilize above 25,000 yuan. Companies like China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum are highlighted for their growth potential [1][15][16] Lithium Market Outlook - The lithium market is seeing strong consumption growth, but supply is not keeping pace, leading to sustained high prices. Regulatory risks are present, but the overall trend remains bullish [1][12] Minor Metals Investment Opportunities - Minor metals like Rhenium and Uranium are highlighted for their investment potential, with Rhenium primarily used in aerospace and Uranium seeing increasing demand in nuclear power [1][13] Conclusion - The overall outlook for the non-ferrous metal market is positive, with various segments showing strong growth potential. Investment strategies should focus on precious metals and minor metals, while being cautious of supply risks in industrial metals.