国际金价站上历史之巅，伦铜价格强势叩响万元大关，白银则以惊人的弹性展开补涨……近期，一场 关于有色金属的"热浪"正在席卷全球。 资本市场对此反应热烈，Wind数据显示，有色金属相关ETF成为近期资金追捧的焦点，仅在近一个月便获 得超200亿元的资金净流入，紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、兴业银锡等板块内龙头个股的股价更是屡创新高。 这究竟是一场由短期情绪驱动的"周期狂欢"，还是一轮由底层逻辑重构引爆的"超级周期"？为此，券商中 国记者采访了多位公募基金经理，力图解码本轮有色金属强势行情背后的深层逻辑与未来图景。 "美元锚"松动重塑有色金属定价 与以往由单一经济复苏驱动的周期性行情不同，受访基金经理普遍认为，本轮有色金属牛市的根基，深植 于一个更为宏大的宏观背景——全球货币体系与美元信用的长期重估。 汇添富指数分析师狄则徐及有色50ETF（159652）基金经理孙浩指出，本轮行情的中长期逻辑根植于有 色金属的货币属性。他们认为："美国财政与货币纪律的双重松动趋势已定，美元信用的边际贬损是驱动 有色金属长期强势表现的底层宏观逻辑。在此背景下，商品本身就是对抗货币贬值的硬通货。" 这一观点得到了多位业内人士的认同。万家基金权益 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in prices of precious and non-ferrous metals is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply constraints, and new demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy [2][4][9]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The current bull market in non-ferrous metals is rooted in a long-term reassessment of the global monetary system and the credit of the US dollar, with a weakening dollar driving demand for metals as a hedge against currency devaluation [4][5]. - The price of gold, which recently surpassed $4000 per ounce, is seen as a leading indicator for other metals, with copper and silver also experiencing significant price increases [5][11]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The supply side is facing long-term constraints due to declining ore grades and high costs of new capacity, which require optimistic price expectations to stimulate investment [7][8]. - There is a notable reduction in high-quality mines and an increasing strategic value of resource commodities, as countries implement measures to enhance resource value [8]. Group 3: New Demand Drivers - The demand for non-ferrous metals is being significantly boosted by AI and renewable energy sectors, with AI-related infrastructure and electric grid upgrades driving copper demand [9]. - The share of demand from the renewable energy sector in traditional cyclical industries is expected to grow, with projections indicating that it could account for over 20% of demand for metals like aluminum and copper [9][12]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The recent volatility in metal prices reflects market skepticism about the sustainability of high prices, but there is potential for a "Davis Double Play" where earnings and valuations could rise simultaneously if high prices are accepted as a new norm [11][12]. - The overall outlook for non-ferrous metals remains positive, with expectations of sustained high demand and supply constraints leading to a "slow bull" market over the next one to two years [12].

黄金后市怎么看？美银技术分析师Paul Ciana表示，今年以来，黄金已上涨近50%，创下自1979年以来 的最佳年度涨幅。今年的反弹可能是黄金牛市的信号。如果当前的牛市反弹能达到2015年后400%的涨 幅，黄金价格有望突破5000美元/盎司。如果能复制2000年时期的牛市，黄金价格可能接近7000美元/盎 司。 对于黄金价格的未来走势，Augmont的Renisha Chainani给出了非常激进的预测，他认为，黄金价格在经 历短期盘整后，可能在2026年升至4200美元/盎司以上的新高。印度黄金会议上的绝大多数行业参与者 都预计，受美国降息、强劲投资需求和地缘政治风险驱动，黄金的牛市或将持续到2026年。 业内人士指出，历史上黄金大牛市前，往往会出现短期获利了解的情况。从技术角度看，金价在突破 4000美元重要心理关口后，本身也存在技术性回调压力。与其押注黄金这单一赛道，不如放眼布局有色 金属整个板块。 2、铜方面，长假期间大宗商品价格持续上涨。铜价暴涨点燃资本热情，迎来"铜博士"的春天。南华期 货指出，节前全球第二大铜矿（印度尼西亚Grasberg铜矿）事故，或导致今明两年的全球铜矿供应预期 急剧收紧 ...

细分方向来看，稀土龙头方面，中国稀土涨停，盛和资源涨逾9%；黄金龙头方面，中金黄金、西部黄 金涨超4%；铜业龙头方面，江西铜业涨近7%，洛阳钼业涨超4%。 1、稀土方面，工业和信息化部等三部门日前发布稀土开采和冶炼分离总量调控管理办法，意味着行业 供给端的调控力度进一步升级，有望进一步推动稀土价格上涨。此外，行业龙头北方稀土上半年归属于 上市公司股东的净利润同比大增1951.52%，表现亮眼。 周五（8月29日）有色金属板块涨幅居前，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）场内涨幅 盘中上探3.25%，收涨2.98%，上探阶段高点！迎着火热上涨的行情，资金进场抢筹，有色龙头ETF （159876）获资金实时净申购1320万份！ 消息面上，重点关注稀土和黄金方向： 未来产业'金属心脏'，现代工业'黄金血液'！按照申万三级行业口径，截至7月底，有色龙头ETF （159876）及其联接基金（A类：017140，C类：017141）被动跟踪的中证有色金属指数中，铜、铝、 黄金、稀土、锂行业权重占比分别为24.5%、15.3%、14.4%、11.5%、8.2%，相对于投资单一金属行 业，能够起到分散风险的作 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant gains, with the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) reaching an intraday increase of 3.25% and closing up 2.98%, indicating strong market interest and capital inflow, with a net subscription of 13.2 million units [1] - In the sub-sectors, rare earth leaders such as China Rare Earth and Shenghe Resources hit the daily limit, while gold leaders like Zhongjin Gold and Western Gold rose over 4%, and copper leaders like Jiangxi Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum increased by nearly 7% and over 4% respectively [1] Group 2: Rare Earth Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has introduced stricter regulations on rare earth mining and separation, which is expected to drive up rare earth prices further. Northern Rare Earth reported a staggering 1951.52% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year [2] - According to Everbright Securities, the clarity and strictness of rare earth supply-side policies, combined with the continuous rise in light rare earth prices, suggest that the rare earth sector may have further upward momentum [2] Group 3: Gold Sector - Shandong Gold and Western Gold reported significant profit increases, with Shandong Gold's net profit reaching 2.808 billion yuan, up 102.98%, and Western Gold's net profit soaring 131.94% to 154 million yuan [2] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that the easing geopolitical situation and expectations of a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy could support gold prices, making gold a tactical investment with a favorable risk-return profile [2] Group 4: Future Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - CITIC Construction pointed out that the current monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, along with domestic policies aimed at optimizing production factors, is likely to enhance profitability across the metal sector and improve market expectations [3] - The industrial metals sector is currently undervalued, indicating potential for upward correction, with a bullish market for non-ferrous metals beginning to take shape [3] Group 5: Macro Drivers and Strategic Insights - The macro drivers for gold include expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions increasing demand for safe-haven assets, and central bank purchases [4] - Strategic metals like rare earths, tungsten, and antimony are expected to benefit from global geopolitical dynamics, while lithium, cobalt, and aluminum are influenced by domestic "anti-involution" policies leading to valuation recovery [4] - The supply-demand dynamics for copper and aluminum are characterized by limited supply growth against rising demand from emerging industries, maintaining a tight balance [4] Group 6: Investment Composition - As of the end of July, the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, with weightings of copper (24.5%), aluminum (15.3%), gold (14.4%), rare earths (11.5%), and lithium (8.2%), providing a diversified investment approach [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in the non-ferrous metals sector is attributed to increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to significant market activity and investment inflows [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a strong performance, with the leading non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) opening higher and closing up 4.25%, attracting a net subscription of 17.4 million units [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Northern Copper and Northern Rare Earth, experienced substantial gains, with Northern Copper hitting the daily limit and others like Jiangxi Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum rising over 9% and 8% respectively [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks have led traders to increase bets on a potential interest rate cut in September, with expectations of two rate cuts by the end of the year [3]. - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to benefit the non-ferrous metals sector through mechanisms such as dollar depreciation, economic stimulus, and improved profitability [3]. Group 3: Domestic Policy and Price Trends - The recent release of the "Interim Measures for Total Quantity Control Management of Rare Earth Mining and Separation" by three Chinese ministries highlights the strategic importance of rare metals [3]. - Analysts from CITIC Securities suggest that the expectation of downstream inventory replenishment will support rare earth prices, with historical trends indicating that high overseas prices often lead to domestic price increases [3]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from both the Federal Reserve's monetary easing and domestic policies aimed at optimizing production factors and improving profitability [3]. - The current valuation of the industrial metals sector is considered low, indicating potential for upward correction, with a bullish market for non-ferrous metals beginning to take shape [3][5]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown the highest cumulative increase of 24.91% year-to-date, outperforming other sectors [4]. - As of the end of July, the price-to-book ratio of the non-ferrous metals index was at a historical low of 2.36, suggesting room for valuation recovery [5]. - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) and its associated funds provide diversified exposure to various metals, reducing investment risk [7].