信达证券（601059）发布研报称，2025年初至今，行业客座率高位持续，国内外航线出行两旺。淡季不 淡，客座率高位、票价有所回正，该行认为航司单位座收或显著修复。同时，随着"反内卷"措施及《中 国航空运输协会航空客运自律公约》的落实，行业恶意低价现象有望消减，或也能带动票价有所修复， 进一步推动航司单位座收回升。叠加油价下行带来的成本下降，航司盈利或能进一步增长。该行看好航 司座收回升带来的盈利修复弹性。该行予行业看好投资评级。 信达证券主要观点如下： 淡季客座率持续高位、票价略有回落 1)供需：运力增速回升，客座率高位提升。根据民航局公布的2025年10月行业最新数据，2025年10月行 业ASK、RPK同比分别+6.2%、+8.9%，较2019年同期+17.3%、+23.4%，相应客座率达到87.4%，同比 +2.2pct，较2019年同期+4.3pct。 根据六大航司(国航、南航、东航、春秋、吉祥、海航)披露的11月运营数据合计情况看，六家航司11月 ASK、RPK同比分别+7.0%、+10.3%，客座率达到85.6%，同比+2.6pct。其中，国内线/国际及地区线 ASK同比分别+4.2%、+13. ...

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines will launch a direct round-trip flight route from Shanghai Pudong to Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, starting on March 3, 2026, marking a significant expansion in its international operations [1] Group 1: Route Details - The new route will operate twice a week, specifically on Tuesdays and Fridays [1] - The outbound flight (9C7057) will depart from Shanghai Pudong at 08:00 Beijing time and arrive in Ulaanbaatar at 12:00 local time [1] - The return flight (9C7058) will leave Ulaanbaatar at 13:00 local time and arrive back in Shanghai at 16:45 Beijing time [1] - The weekly seating capacity for this route is set at 740 seats [1] Group 2: Sales Information - The ticket sales for the new route have already commenced [1]

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines will launch a direct round-trip flight route from Shanghai Pudong to Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, starting on March 3, 2026, as part of its efforts to enhance Shanghai's international aviation hub and expand its "Belt and Road" route network [1][3]. Group 1: Route Details - The new route will operate twice a week, on Tuesdays and Fridays, providing a total of 740 seats weekly [3]. - The outbound flight 9C7057 will depart from Shanghai Pudong at 08:00 and arrive in Ulaanbaatar at 12:00 local time, while the return flight 9C7058 will leave Ulaanbaatar at 13:00 local time and return to Shanghai at 16:45 Beijing time [3]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The direct flight will efficiently connect the East China region with the Mongolian plateau, filling a critical gap in Shanghai's international aviation network and enhancing its hub function for the Yangtze River Delta, nationwide, and global connectivity [3]. - The low-cost operating model of the new route will significantly reduce travel costs and time for passengers, converting potential demand into actual passenger flow and stimulating tourism and business exchanges between the two locations [3]. Group 3: Tourism and Cultural Exchange - Ulaanbaatar serves as the political, economic, and cultural center of Mongolia, providing travelers with access to unique cultural experiences such as the Terelj National Park and the Genghis Khan statue [3]. - Shanghai, as a major entry point in China, offers attractive urban resources and cultural tourism facilities for international travelers, while the new route provides Mongolian travelers with convenient access to China's Yangtze River Delta economic circle [3]. Group 4: Promotional Activities - Spring Airlines has launched the "Taihua Calculation" winter sports theme activity, covering various popular domestic and international snow destinations, allowing travelers to plan their winter trips at a better cost [4]. - From now until March 20, 2026, travelers can obtain a snow travel coupon package worth over 500 yuan through Spring Airlines' official platform, enjoying exclusive benefits at partner hotels in locations like Zhangjiakou and Changbai Mountain [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2][7]. Core Insights - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor during the off-peak season, with both domestic and international travel thriving. The high load factor and slight recovery in ticket prices suggest a significant improvement in airline unit revenue. The implementation of "anti-involution" measures and the self-regulatory agreement by the China Air Transport Association is expected to reduce malicious low pricing, further supporting ticket price recovery and enhancing airline profitability. Additionally, the decline in oil prices is likely to reduce costs, contributing to further profit growth for airlines. Key airlines to focus on include China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [3][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The industry has seen sustained high passenger load factors since early 2025, with both domestic and international routes performing well. The off-peak season is not as weak as expected, with high load factors and a slight recovery in ticket prices, indicating a potential significant recovery in airline unit revenue. The implementation of self-regulatory measures is expected to mitigate low pricing practices, further supporting ticket price recovery and enhancing airline profitability [3][13]. 2. Off-Peak Passenger Load Factor and Ticket Prices 2.1 Supply and Demand - The capacity growth rate has rebounded, leading to an increase in passenger load factors. In October 2025, the industry’s Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) increased by 6.2% and 8.9% year-on-year, respectively, with a load factor of 87.4%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [4][15]. 2.2 Ticket Prices - Ticket prices have weakened in December, with the average domestic ticket price at 839 yuan, down 7.0% year-on-year. The average ticket price for domestic routes, including fuel, was 709 yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year [4][23]. 2.3 Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation fuel has slightly increased in December, with the domestic aviation fuel price at 6045 yuan per ton, up 3.9% year-on-year. The exchange rate of the Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, with the exchange rate at 7.0602 yuan per dollar as of December 16, 2025, down 1.78% from the end of 2024 [5][37]. 3. Airline Capacity and Load Factors 3.1 Operational Status - In November, most airlines maintained stable capacity growth, with significant increases in international capacity. The passenger load factors for both domestic and international routes have shown year-on-year improvements, significantly increasing compared to 2019 levels [4][43]. 3.2 Fleet Expansion - In November, Air China and China Southern Airlines each added 7 aircraft, marking the highest net increase among the six major airlines. From January to November, China Southern Airlines, Air China, and China Eastern Airlines saw net increases of 47, 26, and 21 aircraft, respectively [4][7].

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines is suspending several routes between Japan and China due to market impacts and low passenger load factors, particularly following diplomatic tensions and natural disasters affecting travel sentiment [2][4][14]. Route Suspensions - Spring Airlines will suspend the route between Saga Airport and Shanghai Pudong International Airport starting December 22, with previous reductions in frequency from four to two flights per week [2][4]. - The route from Okayama Airport to Shanghai will be suspended from December 16 to March 28, 2026, with all flights operated by China Eastern Airlines [5][7]. - The Toyama-Shanghai route will also see a suspension from January 3 to March 28, 2026, with a total of 37 round trips canceled due to market issues [8][10]. - The Shizuoka-Shanghai route will be suspended from January 2026 until late March, with a significant impact expected on local businesses due to the high proportion of Chinese tourists [14]. Passenger Load Factors - The load factor for the Saga-Shanghai route dropped from over 90% to around 40% following a travel advisory from the Chinese government and subsequent earthquake alerts in Japan [4]. - The Okayama-Shanghai route had an average load factor of 82.4% in November, but the future operational plans remain uncertain [7]. - The Shizuoka route had a load factor of 67% in October, indicating a decline in demand [14]. Economic Impact - The economic impact of the Shizuoka route is significant, with an estimated economic effect of 35.4 billion yen for the fiscal year 2024, a 30% increase from 2023 [14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [9] Core Insights - The domestic supply-demand relationship continues to improve, with a notable increase in domestic flight capacity and passenger load factors compared to the previous year [10][11] - The impact of the Japan route on international flights is manageable, with overall operational metrics remaining stable despite some route cancellations [3][54] - The implementation of the "Self-Regulation Agreement for Air Passenger Transport" in August 2025 is expected to help stabilize the market and improve profitability [4][15] Summary by Sections Domestic Routes - In November, the capacity for domestic routes increased by approximately 4.2% year-on-year, while it decreased by about 9.8% month-on-month due to seasonal factors [2][16] - The overall passenger load factor for November improved by approximately 2.1 percentage points year-on-year but decreased by 2.5 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting the seasonal downturn [34][44] - Major airlines like Spring Airlines and China Southern Airlines showed significant year-on-year capacity increases, while the decline in capacity for Juneyao Airlines has narrowed compared to previous months [2][18] International Routes - For international routes, capacity increased by about 15.0% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month decrease of 5.1% [3][54] - The passenger load factor for international routes improved by 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, remaining consistent with October's performance [54][56] - The impact of travel advisories related to Japan is limited, as the affected routes constitute a small portion of the overall international operations [58] Industry Trends - The trend of "anti-involution" in the industry is beginning to show results, with a focus on maintaining supply control and improving load factors [4][15] - The convergence of operational metrics among airlines indicates a unified strategic direction, which is expected to alleviate operational pressures [11][21] - The upcoming months are anticipated to see continued low growth in domestic flight capacity, reinforcing the supply constraints necessary for industry rebalancing [21][48]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing the core functions of the Hongqiao Business District to support enterprises in their international expansion during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Group 1: Business Function Enhancement - The primary goal is to develop an internationally competitive central business district, with a focus on attracting new types of trade institutions in digital, service, technology, and green trade [1] - There is a need to accelerate the development of offshore trade models to enhance the business capabilities of the district [1] Group 2: Conference and Exhibition Function Enhancement - The Hongqiao Business District aims to strengthen its role as a core area for international exhibitions, particularly as the permanent venue for the China International Import Expo [2] - There is a focus on increasing the scale and quality of exhibitions and enhancing global supply chain management capabilities [2] Group 3: Legal Function Enhancement - The establishment of the International Central Legal Zone is underway, with a goal to attract more legal service institutions and enhance its market influence [2] - The district aims to align with Shanghai's "Five Centers" initiative to gather global legal service providers [2] Group 4: Financial Function Enhancement - The district plans to establish the Hongqiao International Central Financial Zone to improve financial services, especially for enterprises going global [2] - There is a focus on providing specialized services related to new industry forms, data spaces, and financing models [2] Group 5: Tax Function Enhancement - The article highlights the relatively small scale of the tax service market in China compared to developed countries, indicating a growing demand for tax services as the economy develops [2] - Plans include establishing the Hongqiao International Central Taxation Zone to better meet the needs of enterprises [2] Group 6: Customs Function Enhancement - The Hongqiao Business District is positioned as a new platform for international trade, with initiatives to streamline customs processes and enhance trade convenience [3] - There is a commitment to align with international trade rules to improve import and export efficiency [3] Group 7: Labor Function Enhancement - The district has established a national-level human resources service park and is working on a global service network for human resources [3] - Future plans include transitioning from domestic to global services, addressing various stages of enterprise needs [3] Group 8: Overseas Affairs Function Enhancement - The district aims to become a key hub for returning overseas talent, enhancing collaboration with organizations to support entrepreneurship [3] - There is a focus on improving the attractiveness of the returnee entrepreneurship park [3] Group 9: Government Function Enhancement - The Hongqiao Business District is set to host significant diplomatic events and integrate into national diplomatic strategies [4] - Plans include attracting more international events and fostering exchanges through civil organizations [4] Group 10: Security Function Enhancement - The article stresses the need for improved security measures for overseas investments and interests as more enterprises expand internationally [5] - There are plans to introduce professional security institutions to enhance national security mechanisms [5] Group 11: International Organization Function Enhancement - The district is working on becoming a hub for international economic organizations, with plans to attract more influential international entities [5] - There is a focus on increasing the number and capability of international organizations present in the district [5] Group 12: Aviation Function Enhancement - The Hongqiao Business District is enhancing its aviation capabilities, including the development of low-altitude economic zones [5] - Plans include extending airport services to facilitate business travel across major cities in the Asia-Pacific region [5] Group 13: Medical Function Enhancement - The establishment of the New Hongqiao International Medical Center aims to attract high-level foreign medical institutions [6] - There are plans to create a "medical free trade zone" to facilitate international medical services [6] Group 14: Cultural Function Enhancement - The district is focusing on developing diverse cultural and entertainment venues to cater to changing consumer preferences [6] - Plans include creating new performance spaces and integrating various cultural consumption experiences [6] Group 15: Service Function Enhancement - The article highlights the need to improve public service quality within the district, focusing on community living standards [7] - There are plans to develop a comprehensive service system that enhances living conditions and community integration [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [4]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a recovery, with domestic passenger load factors showing a year-on-year increase. International supply and demand are accelerating [1]. - The overall supply-demand balance is better than in 2019 and 2024, with structural improvements in demand, particularly in business travel and cross-border needs [4]. - Supply constraints are strengthening due to maintenance backlogs and low growth in new aircraft introductions, indicating a potential turning point in the "supply-demand-price" dynamic [4]. Summary by Sections Domestic Operations - In November, the ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates were led by Spring Airlines (15.6%), followed by China Southern Airlines (8.7%) and China Eastern Airlines (6.5%). The RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth was also highest for Spring Airlines (18.0%) [1]. - Cumulative data from January to November shows Spring Airlines leading in both ASK (12.0%) and RPK (12.0%) growth rates [1]. International Operations - For international routes in November, the highest ASK growth was recorded by Juneyao Airlines (26.8%), while RPK growth was led by Juneyao Airlines (38.4%) [2]. - Cumulative data from January to November indicates Juneyao Airlines also leads in ASK (41.5%) and RPK (48.3%) growth rates [2]. Regional Operations - In November, Spring Airlines had the highest ASK growth (20.5%) for regional routes, while RPK growth was also led by Spring Airlines (26.4%) [2]. - Cumulative data shows China Southern Airlines leading in ASK growth (2.8%) and China National Airlines leading in RPK growth (4.7%) [2]. Passenger Load Factor - In November, Spring Airlines had the highest passenger load factor at 92.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points [3]. - Cumulative data from January to November shows Spring Airlines maintaining a load factor of 91.5%, unchanged from the previous year [3]. Fleet Growth - As of November 2025, the five listed airlines collectively added 17 aircraft, with a year-on-year fleet increase of 4.0% [3].

Core Viewpoint - Shijiazhuang Zhengding International Airport has launched eight major action initiatives to promote the integration of aviation, culture, and tourism, aiming to enhance travel efficiency and cultural experiences for passengers [1] Group 1: Action Initiatives - The airport's initiatives include enhancing route networks, improving service efficiency, and innovating diverse products to create a new travel experience [1] - By 2026, the airport plans to expand its passenger routes to 160, achieving over 95% connectivity for trunk routes and over 60% coverage for branch routes [3] - The airport aims to reduce the minimum connection time for transit flights to 40 minutes, making transfers more convenient than taking a taxi [3] Group 2: Service Efficiency - Shijiazhuang Airport maintains a domestic flight check-in time of under 8 minutes for 95% of passengers, with luggage retrieval times of under 3 minutes for the first bag and under 9 minutes for the last bag [3] - The airport has upgraded its intermodal transport services, including dedicated transfer channels and enhanced luggage handling services [3] - New value-added services include off-site check-in and luggage transfer, as well as customized shuttle services to improve the overall travel experience [3] Group 3: Targeted Services - The airport has developed a "one trip, one policy" service system tailored to different traveler demographics, including seniors, families, and international tourists [5] - Specific services include priority assistance for elderly travelers, family-friendly amenities, and specialized services for winter sports enthusiasts [5] - The airport is enhancing its facilities to provide a one-stop service center for tourism, including direct transportation to local attractions and improved accessibility features [5] Group 4: Cultural Integration and Product Innovation - Shijiazhuang Airport aims to become a "Yanzhao Cultural Reception Hall" by incorporating local cultural elements into the travel experience [7] - The airport will feature local cuisine and cultural exhibitions, as well as hands-on experiences with traditional crafts [7] - New product offerings include bundled travel packages and themed travel routes that highlight regional cultural resources [7][8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The industry is experiencing a robust supply and demand growth, with November data showing a year-on-year increase in both supply and demand. The passenger load factor has improved, particularly in domestic routes, which have seen a significant increase compared to 2019 levels. In November, the total supply and demand for six listed airlines increased by 7.1% and 10.3% year-on-year, respectively, reaching 110.4% and 116.7% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019. The passenger load factor rose by 2.5 percentage points to 85.6%, which is 4.6 percentage points higher than in November 2019 [6][6][6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - In November, domestic routes saw supply and demand increase by 4.2% and 6.8% year-on-year, respectively, achieving 113.3% and 118.2% of the levels from 2019. The passenger load factor for domestic routes improved by 2.1 percentage points to 86.6%, which is 3.6 percentage points higher than in 2019. International routes experienced a more significant increase, with supply and demand rising by 15.0% and 20.7% year-on-year, reaching 104.8% and 113.5% of 2019 levels. The passenger load factor for international routes increased by 3.9 percentage points to 83.4%, which is 6.4 percentage points higher than in 2019 [6][6]. Airline Performance - Performance among airlines varied, with Spring Airlines and Eastern Airlines leading in passenger load factors. In November, the three major airlines reported a year-on-year increase in supply and demand of 6.7% and 10.3%, respectively, continuing their recovery trend. Domestic routes for these airlines have returned to 111.6% and 116.6% of 2019 levels. Eastern Airlines had the highest passenger load factor, increasing by 3.0 percentage points to 87.4%, while China National Airlines showed the fastest recovery, with a 3.9 percentage point increase to 83.3% [6][6]. External Factors - External events continue to disrupt demand, particularly on the China-Japan route, which is experiencing short-term weakness. However, the long-term recovery trend for international routes remains intact. Recent policy changes have extended the free cancellation and modification policy for flights on this route until March 28, 2026. Despite the current challenges, the demand for international flights is expected to recover in the medium to long term, supported by resilient ticket prices [6][6].