国投证券主要观点如下： 事件 智通财经APP获悉，国投证券发布研报称，中国石化(600028.SH)与中国航油两家企业重组后，将深度 结合在SAF等领域的科技研发、产业化能力、储运加注、国际贸易等优势，促进SAF研发、使用和持续 迭代，推动产业链高质量发展，助力航空业减排降碳,并或有望坚实推动我国SAF从示范飞行走向大规 模商用的进程，建议关注SAF/HVO产能建设进度领先的企业及上游UCO原材料收运处理体系成熟的企 业。 中国航油是亚洲最大的集航空油品采购、运输、储存、检测、销售、加注于一体的航空运输服务保障企 业。中国石化是全球第一大炼油公司和我国第一大航油生产商。本次重组符合近年来国企改革聚焦主责 主业、通过整合提升核心竞争力的政策方向，其目的在于优化国有资本布局，避免同质化竞争。据空天 视角，由于中国航油的业务结构较为单一，作为独立供应商时，需向中石化、中石油等多家采购航油， 再销售给各家航空公司，本质上更接近贸易型企业，业务壁垒较低，长期视角下业务被并入掌握上游石 油供应的大型央企属大概率事件。同时目前国际较大的航空燃料服务商主要为一体化石油化工公司，如 壳牌、BP、埃克森美孚、道达尔等，其规模大、 ...

2026 年 01 月 09 日 基础化工 中石化中航油宣布重组，我国 SAF 产业 或启新篇 事件： 据新华社，国务院国资委 8 日发布消息，经报国务院批准，中国石油 化工集团有限公司与中国航空油料集团有限公司实施重组。 为什么选择重组？ 中国航油是亚洲最大的集航空油品采购、运输、储存、检测、销售、 加注于一体的航空运输服务保障企业。中国石化是全球第一大炼油公 司和我国第一大航油生产商。本次重组符合近年来国企改革聚焦主责 主业、通过整合提升核心竞争力的政策方向，其目的在于优化国有资 本布局，避免同质化竞争。据空天视角，由于中国航油的业务结构较 为单一，作为独立供应商时，需向中石化、中石油等多家采购航油， 再销售给各家航空公司，本质上更接近贸易型企业，业务壁垒较低， 长期视角下业务被并入掌握上游石油供应的大型央企属大概率事件。 同时目前国际较大的航空燃料服务商主要为一体化石油化工公司，如 壳牌、BP、埃克森美孚、道达尔等，其规模大、油品和基础设施保障 能力强、声誉好、网络完善。而我国航空燃料生产、销售、加注等业 务分属不同企业，比较优势不甚突出，或亟需通过头部企业的重组来 对核心竞争力进行重新定位。 重组的战 ...

多家券商发布研报表示，航空板块目前具备较高的投资价值。中泰证券指出，元旦假期灵活拼假模式的 流行延长了实际出行周期，这将对航空运输量形成持续支撑。结合油价下行和人民币升值的双重利好， 航空业量价修复的预期十分明确，短期基本面积极变化有望驱动股价进一步上行。 【环球网消费综合报道】随着2026年元旦假期的到来，资本市场对于航空旅游板块的关注度持续升温。 12月31日早盘，港股航空股表现较好，呈现出普涨态势。截至上午收盘，中国南方航空股份 （01055.HK）上涨4.30%，中国国航（0753.HK）上涨3.65%，中国东方航空股份（0670.HK）微涨 4.52%。A股市场上，中国东航上涨4.06%，中国国航、南方航空、华夏航空等航空股均出现上涨，显示 出资金对于航空业复苏的强烈信心。 据了解，此次航空股的集体走强，直接得益于即将到来的假期出行热潮。据最新预订数据，消费者在元 旦假期（1月1日至3日）的出行意愿显著提升。北京、天津、上海等一线城市飞往三亚、海口、昆明、 广州、长白山及哈尔滨等热门旅游目的地的机票预订量呈现环比大幅增长态势。截至目前，国内航线机 票预订量同比去年同期也大增。 在客流量攀升的同时，票 ...

Core Insights - The aviation industry experienced an expansion in supply and demand growth year-on-year in November, with domestic routes showing significant improvement and international routes surpassing 2019 levels [1][3] - The overall passenger load factor increased by 2.5 percentage points to 85.6%, with domestic routes seeing a 2.1 percentage point increase to 86.6% [1] - Despite short-term demand pressure on China-Japan international routes, the long-term recovery trend remains intact, supported by resilient demand and price elasticity [3] Industry Performance - In November, the total supply and demand for six listed airlines increased by 7.1% and 10.3% year-on-year, respectively, reaching 110.4% and 116.7% of the levels seen in the same month of 2019 [1] - Domestic routes saw supply and demand growth of 4.2% and 6.8%, while international routes experienced a more robust increase of 15.0% and 20.7% [1] - The three major airlines reported a supply and demand increase of 6.7% and 10.3% year-on-year, with Eastern Airlines leading in passenger load factor at 87.4% [2] Airline-Specific Insights - Spring Airlines and Eastern Airlines led in passenger load factors among private carriers, with Spring Airlines achieving a 92.3% load factor [2] - China National Airlines showed the fastest recovery in load factor, increasing by 3.9 percentage points to 83.3% in November [2] - Hainan Airlines and China National Airlines are highlighted as preferred investment choices due to their performance and recovery potential [3]

格隆汇12月19日｜惠誉评级表示，中日航线缩减预计不会在中期内显著拖累中国航空业的复苏进程。鉴 于中国航空业对日本市场的整体敞口不高，且国际客运持续多元化，行业层面的影响有限。惠誉表示， 营运影响在以休闲旅客为主的双城航线中最为明显，尤其是需求结构较不多元的次级枢纽。近期航空公 司削减航班、调整至窄体或更小机型，旅客退改签增加，相关航线的客座率走弱。今年11月，赴日航班 降至2019年水平的82%左右，进一步凸显相关影响主要集中于特定航线。日本市场通常占中国国际航线 运力的10%至15%，因而对行业整体吞吐量和机场生产率的拖累有限。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The industry is experiencing a robust supply and demand growth, with November data showing a year-on-year increase in both supply and demand. The passenger load factor has improved, particularly in domestic routes, which have seen a significant increase compared to 2019 levels. In November, the total supply and demand for six listed airlines increased by 7.1% and 10.3% year-on-year, respectively, reaching 110.4% and 116.7% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019. The passenger load factor rose by 2.5 percentage points to 85.6%, which is 4.6 percentage points higher than in November 2019 [6][6][6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - In November, domestic routes saw supply and demand increase by 4.2% and 6.8% year-on-year, respectively, achieving 113.3% and 118.2% of the levels from 2019. The passenger load factor for domestic routes improved by 2.1 percentage points to 86.6%, which is 3.6 percentage points higher than in 2019. International routes experienced a more significant increase, with supply and demand rising by 15.0% and 20.7% year-on-year, reaching 104.8% and 113.5% of 2019 levels. The passenger load factor for international routes increased by 3.9 percentage points to 83.4%, which is 6.4 percentage points higher than in 2019 [6][6]. Airline Performance - Performance among airlines varied, with Spring Airlines and Eastern Airlines leading in passenger load factors. In November, the three major airlines reported a year-on-year increase in supply and demand of 6.7% and 10.3%, respectively, continuing their recovery trend. Domestic routes for these airlines have returned to 111.6% and 116.6% of 2019 levels. Eastern Airlines had the highest passenger load factor, increasing by 3.0 percentage points to 87.4%, while China National Airlines showed the fastest recovery, with a 3.9 percentage point increase to 83.3% [6][6]. External Factors - External events continue to disrupt demand, particularly on the China-Japan route, which is experiencing short-term weakness. However, the long-term recovery trend for international routes remains intact. Recent policy changes have extended the free cancellation and modification policy for flights on this route until March 28, 2026. Despite the current challenges, the demand for international flights is expected to recover in the medium to long term, supported by resilient ticket prices [6][6].

Core Viewpoint - The rebound in air travel presents investment opportunities in local stocks, particularly comparing SATS Limited and SIA Engineering as potential beneficiaries of this trend [1]. SATS Limited (SGX: S58) - SATS is one of the largest providers of air cargo and handling services globally and Asia's leading airline caterer [2]. - For the second quarter of FY26, SATS reported an 8.4% year-on-year revenue increase to S$1.57 billion, with profit after tax rising 13.3% to S$78.9 million [3]. - Operating cash flow and free cash flow turned positive at S$77.2 million and S$3.4 million, respectively, indicating a recovery post-pandemic with net earnings of S$244 million for FY2025 [4]. - The company is expanding its global reach through the integration of the WFS acquisition, covering 225 stations in 27 countries, with 50% of global air cargo volume flowing through these routes [4][5]. - Future growth is expected from increased cargo volume handling and cross-selling Food Solutions to the WFS network [5]. SIA Engineering (SGX: S59) - SIAEC operates in the maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) space, with a 26.5% year-on-year turnover increase to S$729 million in the first half of FY26, and profit after tax up over 21% to S$83.3 million [7]. - The operating margin improved to 1.8%, up from 0.6% in the previous year [7]. - SIAEC is pursuing strategic joint ventures with global airlines and OEMs, recently expanding its relationship with Safran Aircraft Engines [8]. - Future growth is contingent on the rebound in air travel, which will drive demand for MRO services [9]. Head-to-Head Comparison - SATS has a global revenue growth potential post-WFS acquisition, while SIAEC's revenue is more reliant on steady MRO demand in the Asian region [10]. - SATS has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.4 times with total borrowings of S$2.45 billion, whereas SIAEC has a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05 times and borrowings of S$4.9 million [11]. - SIAEC has a better dividend history, missing only two annual payments in six years compared to SATS's three missed payments [11]. - Both companies have sustainable dividends, with SIAEC's payout ratio at 69% and SATS at around 32% [12]. - SIAEC's MRO services are expected to be more resilient during downturns compared to SATS [12]. Investment Considerations - For investors seeking higher growth potential, SATS may be more appealing, albeit with higher execution risks related to the WFS integration [13]. - Conversely, for those preferring stability, SIAEC offers a better balance sheet, steadier dividends, and cash flows, albeit with slower growth [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Eastern Airlines is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [5]. Core Views - The report indicates that the operating performance of China Eastern Airlines is expected to grow significantly due to the expansion of visa-free policies, leading to a substantial increase in international route business [1][4]. - The international route revenue share increased to 16% in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 22% [1]. - The report forecasts a potential increase in international flight passenger volume by approximately 15% if the current growth trends continue [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, China Eastern Airlines reported operating revenue of 106.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.73% [1]. - Gross profit reached 7.76 billion yuan, up 19.69%, with a gross margin of 7.29%, an increase of 0.97 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The total profit surged from 0.51 million yuan in the same period last year to 2.35 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose from a loss of 138 million yuan to 2.10 billion yuan [1]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the recovery in inbound tourism is expected to drive the aviation industry's revival, with both international and domestic routes anticipated to see revenue growth [3]. - The international route RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) for China Eastern Airlines grew by 24.16% year-on-year, while ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) increased by 20.08% [2]. - The report notes that the domestic flight load factor is expected to rise, leading to potential fare increases [3]. Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards to 1.01 billion yuan and 6.33 billion yuan, respectively, due to slower-than-expected recovery in air travel demand [4]. - The report introduces a profit forecast for 2027 at 11.74 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 119, 19, and 10 times for the respective years [4].

Core Viewpoint - Major domestic airlines in China have collectively turned profitable in the first three quarters of 2023 after five consecutive years of losses, indicating a significant recovery in the industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines achieved profitability in the first three quarters of 2023, marking a turning point in the industry's recovery [1] - Hainan Airlines topped the profitability rankings with a net profit of 2.845 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.93% [1] - China Southern Airlines led the three major airlines with a net profit of 2.307 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.40% [1] - China Eastern Airlines reported a net profit of 2.103 billion yuan, successfully turning around from losses [1] - Air China achieved a net profit of 1.870 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37.31% [1] Group 2: Operational Metrics - International routes have become the core driver of profitability for the three major airlines [1] - Passenger turnover for international routes significantly outpaced that of domestic routes: Air China's international and domestic passenger turnover increased by 14.9% and 1.2% respectively; China Eastern Airlines saw increases of 24.16% and 6.08%; China Southern Airlines reported increases of 19.54% and 4.10% [1] - China Southern Airlines' international business performance is particularly notable, with its international seat occupancy rate and revenue per seat kilometer exceeding pre-pandemic levels in 2019 [1]

Core Insights - The major domestic airlines in China have collectively turned profitable in the first three quarters of 2025 after five consecutive years of losses, indicating a significant recovery in the industry [1][2][4] - Hainan Airlines leads the profitability among private carriers with a net profit of 2.845 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.93% [3] Group 1: Major Airlines Performance - China Southern Airlines reported a net profit of 2.307 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.40% [2] - China Eastern Airlines achieved a net profit of 2.103 billion yuan, successfully turning around from losses [2] - Air China recorded a net profit of 1.870 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 37.31% [2] Group 2: International Routes as Growth Drivers - International routes have become the core driver of profitability for the three major airlines, with passenger turnover growth significantly higher than domestic routes [2] - Air China's international and domestic passenger turnover growth rates were 14.9% and 1.2%, respectively [2] - China Eastern Airlines reported growth rates of 24.16% for international and 6.08% for domestic routes, while China Southern Airlines had 19.54% and 4.10% respectively [2] Group 3: Private Airlines Performance Disparity - Hainan Airlines topped the profitability chart among private airlines, while Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines faced profit declines of 10.32% and 14.28%, respectively [3] - Juneyao Airlines experienced a significant drop in third-quarter net profit, decreasing by over 25% year-on-year [3] - The decline in performance is attributed to increased competition in the domestic market, characterized by rising volume but falling prices [3] Group 4: Industry Supply and Demand Improvement - The overall supply-demand relationship in the civil aviation industry has improved, with a total of 1.51 million flights in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [4] - Passenger transport volume reached 210 million, up 3.9% year-on-year, with international passenger transport volume increasing by 13.3% [4] - The overall passenger load factor reached 85.9%, a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point, with domestic routes achieving a record high load factor of 87.3% [4]