证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 关注五一旅游出行高峰，景区公司天气全梳 理 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 04 月 28 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600123070017 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -19% -13% -7% -1% 5% 11% 17% 23% 29% 35% 2024/4/29 2024/8/27 2024/12/25 2025/4/24 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究 《酒店集团业绩显著复苏， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [33]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, domestic travel reached 1.794 billion trips, with total spending of 1.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.4% in travel volume and 18.6% in spending [25][33]. - The consumer services industry index fell by 3.86% from April 11 to April 24, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 5.18 percentage points [8]. - The report highlights a recovery trend in tourism consumption, supported by favorable policies such as visa exemptions with Malaysia and Azerbaijan, and a predicted daily cross-regional movement of over 270 million people during the May Day holiday [22][24][33]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The consumer services index experienced a decline, with the tourism and hotel sectors correcting after previous gains. The comprehensive service sector saw a rise of 5.10%, while tourism and hotel sectors fell by 7.28% and 4.38%, respectively [10][13]. - As of April 24, 2025, the overall PE ratio for the consumer services industry was approximately 31.95 times, slightly down from previous levels and below the average valuation of 50.65 times since 2016 [16]. Industry News - Key developments include a significant increase in domestic travel and spending, with Q1 2025 seeing 1.794 billion trips and 1.8 trillion yuan spent, marking increases of 26.4% and 18.6% year-on-year, respectively [25]. - The report notes the extension of visa exemptions with Malaysia and Azerbaijan, which is expected to boost inbound tourism [22]. Company Announcements - Notable company performances include Jiuhua Tourism reporting a 30.13% increase in revenue to 235 million yuan in Q1 2025, driven by a rise in visitor numbers [27]. - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism reported a 19.64% increase in revenue for 2024, while also providing a Q1 earnings forecast [28]. Weekly Perspective - The report suggests focusing on sectors directly benefiting from local tourism development policies, such as scenic spots and online travel agencies (OTAs), while also considering cyclical sectors like exhibitions and education [33].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiuhua Tourism is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit increasing by 30.13% and 31.83% year-on-year, respectively [2][3] - The strong performance is attributed to favorable weather conditions and a robust recovery in the domestic tourism market, with a 5.9% increase in domestic travel during the Spring Festival [3] - Government policies aimed at boosting tourism consumption are expected to support steady and rapid growth in the company's performance throughout the year [4] - The company anticipates a revenue of 840 million yuan and a net profit of 205 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a 10.2% increase in profit compared to 2024 [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing trends in temple tourism and infrastructure improvements, such as the opening of the Pool-Huang High-speed Railway [5] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 841 million yuan and a net profit of 209 million yuan, with an EPS of 1.89 yuan [6][7] - The financial forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are 924 million yuan and 1,008 million yuan in revenue, and net profits of 232 million yuan and 261 million yuan, respectively [9][11] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable around 49.9% to 51.2% over the forecast period [9] - The price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 20.18 in 2025 to 16.20 in 2027, indicating potential value appreciation [11]

近期九华旅游（603199）发布2025年一季报，证券之星财报模型分析如下： 营收与利润 九华旅游在2025年第一季度实现了显著的营收和利润增长。根据财报，公司营业总收入达到2.35亿元， 同比上升30.13%；归母净利润为6865.86万元，同比上升31.83%；扣非净利润为6688.22万元，同比上升 36.44%。这表明公司在该季度内不仅扩大了收入规模，还有效提升了盈利能力。 盈利能力 现金流状况 每股经营性现金流为0.24元，同比增长257.55%，从-0.15元转正。这一变化反映了公司经营活动产生的 现金流量大幅改善，增强了企业的现金流健康度。 资产负债情况 货币资金为2.33亿元，同比增长176.46%；应收账款为2542.66万元，同比增长64.62%；有息负债为34.59 万元，同比增长223.67%。虽然有息负债有所增加，但考虑到货币资金的大幅增长，公司的短期偿债能 力依然较强。 总结 总体来看，九华旅游在2025年第一季度表现出色，营收和利润均实现快速增长，盈利能力增强，费用得 到有效控制，现金流状况明显好转。尽管有息负债有所增加，但整体财务状况稳健。 公司的毛利率为54.6%，同比减少了 ...

旅游及酒店板块反弹，三峡旅游（002627）涨停，华天酒店（000428）涨超5%，祥源文旅 （600576）、九华旅游（603199）、西藏旅游（600749）跟涨。 这几只票暗盘资金正在偷偷流入，立即查看>> ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 235 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.13%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 69 million yuan, up 31.83% year-on-year [1] - The increase in visitor numbers and revenue is attributed to improved weather conditions and an earlier Spring Festival, leading to a longer peak season [1] - The company maintains strong cost control, with a stable gross margin of 54.6% and a net profit margin of 29.3%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [2] - The company is actively pursuing project developments and marketing strategies to capitalize on the growing tourism sector in Anhui Province [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 845 million yuan and net profit of 223 million yuan in 2025, with projected growth rates of 10.5% and 20.1% respectively [5][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 235 million yuan, a 30.13% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 69 million yuan, up 31.83% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 54.6%, while the net profit margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 29.3% [2] Project Development and Marketing - The company is advancing several projects, including the construction of a cable car at Lion Peak and upgrades to existing facilities, while also seeking new investment opportunities [3] - Marketing efforts include enhancing media presence and collaborating with major online travel agencies to boost brand visibility and attract visitors [3] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 850 million yuan in 2025, 930 million yuan in 2026, and 1.04 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to reach 223 million yuan, 263 million yuan, and 304 million yuan respectively [5][4]

证券代码：603199 证券简称：九华旅游 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 重要内容提示 公司董事会及董事、高级管理人员保证季度报告内容的真实、准确、完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈 述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 公司负责人、主管会计工作负责人及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）保证季度报告中财务信息的真 实、准确、完整。 第一季度财务报表是否经审计 □是 √否 一、主要财务数据 (一)主要会计数据和财务指标 单位：元 币种：人民币 ■ (二)非经常性损益项目和金额 √适用 □不适用 单位:元 币种:人民币 ■ 对公司将《公开发行证券的公司信息披露解释性公告第1号一一非经常性损益》未列举的项目认定为非 经常性损益项目且金额重大的，以及将《公开发行证券的公司信息披露解释性公告第1号一一非经常性 损益》中列举的非经常性损益项目界定为经常性损益的项目，应说明原因。 □适用 √不适用 (三)主要会计数据、财务指标发生变动的情况、原因 √适用 □不适用 ■ 二、股 ...

九华旅游（603199）公告，2025年第一季度营收为2.35亿元，同比增长30.13%；净利润为6865.86万 元，同比增长31.83%。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with expectations of an upward movement exceeding 15% in the next 3-6 months [11][48]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant acceleration in the growth of the catering sector, with March retail catering revenue increasing by 5.6% year-on-year, up from 4.3% in the previous month. Notably, revenue from enterprises above a certain threshold rose by 6.8%, marking the first time in 12 months that this segment outpaced overall growth [2][18]. - The "2025 Service Consumption Quality Improvement and Benefit Action Plan" was released, outlining 48 specific measures across six areas to enhance service consumption, including catering, accommodation, and tourism [2][21]. - High booking interest for the upcoming May Day holiday was reported, with hotel and flight searches on Ctrip increasing by 100% and 80% respectively week-on-week, and a year-on-year increase of 200% in hotel searches for inbound travel [3][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Updates - The catering sector continues to show improvement, with March retail catering revenue growth accelerating. The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption policies and the upcoming May Day holiday as key drivers [2][18]. - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management by Tongcheng Travel for approximately 2.497 billion yuan is noted, with an EV/EBITDA valuation of 9.5 times. This acquisition is seen as strategically beneficial for enhancing Tongcheng's hotel supply chain [4][26]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the social service sector has shown a strong performance, with the sector's index rising by 8.64% over the past two weeks, ranking third among 31 major industry sectors [8][29]. - Specific stock performances are highlighted, with notable increases in the catering sector, including a 12.73% rise in A-share catering stocks [8][29]. Company Performance - Action Education reported a revenue of 780 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a 16.5% increase, with a net profit of 270 million yuan, up 22.4% [5][28]. - Jiuhua Tourism is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 69 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a 32% year-on-year growth, driven by strong visitor traffic [4][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the catering sector, particularly on growth-oriented companies and undervalued leaders affected by tariff impacts, with specific mentions of brands like Gu Ming and Da Shi [9][16]. - In the hotel and tourism sectors, attention is drawn to quality scenic spots and hotel stocks, particularly Shou Lv Hotel [9][16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [3][30]. Core Insights - The tourism market is showing significant recovery with three main trends: long-distance travel revival, cross-border travel increase, and county-level market expansion. The proportion of cross-city accommodation orders has exceeded 80%, and inbound travel orders have increased by 173% year-on-year, reflecting a structural upgrade in consumption [2][6][15]. - The government's recent policies, including the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan," aim to boost consumption in sectors like culture and tourism, with measures such as a 30% discount on tickets and subsidies for rural tourism. These initiatives are expected to release regional and structural demand [2][18]. - The report highlights a strong pre-holiday surge in travel interest, with hotel search activity up 100% and flight searches up 80% in the past week. The trend of "low-cost, long-distance" travel is becoming established, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [2][6][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The social service sector index saw a weekly change of 0.14%, ranking 21 out of 31 in the Shenwan industry classification. The hotel and catering sub-sector performed well with a 3.65% increase [5][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in the tourism industry, driven by policy incentives and an upgrade in consumer spending patterns. The market is characterized by long-distance travel recovery, county market expansion, and quality improvement [6][15][21]. - The county-level market is showing remarkable performance, with a 25% increase in tourism heat compared to high-tier cities, indicating a clear trend of consumption upgrading in lower-tier markets [21]. Industry News Dynamics - The report notes the increasing interest in travel among older consumers, with a significant rise in bookings from those aged 60 and above. This demographic is becoming a vital part of the travel market, contributing to the overall growth in tourism [22][23].