值得注意的是，此前，赣锋锂业董事长李良彬也曾在2025年底公开预测，若2026年需求增速超过30%，碳酸锂价格有望突破15万元/吨甚至20万元/ 吨。 （原标题：瑞银高调唱多 狂拉超10%！碳酸锂期货创历史最大涨幅） 农历新年后的首个交易日，碳酸锂市场迎来强势"开门红"。2月24日，碳酸锂主力期货合约开盘即跳空高开，盘中最高触及165800元/吨，最高涨 幅超11%，截至收盘报164120元/吨，涨幅达10.56%，创上市以来最大单日涨幅。 现货市场同步跟涨。据上海有色网（SMM）数据，当日电池级碳酸锂均价报152000元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨8250元/吨，日内涨幅5.74%；工业 级碳酸锂均价报148500元/吨，环比同样上涨8250元/吨，日内涨幅5.88%，期现货形成联动上涨态势。 资本市场层面，A股锂矿概念亦同步发力。截至收盘，锂矿指数（884785.WI）大涨3.77%，成分股全线飘红，其中盛新锂能（002240.SZ）涨幅达 7.2%，永兴材料（002756.SZ）、盐湖股份（000792.SZ）、赣锋锂业（002460.SZ）等龙头股涨幅均超5%。市场资金对锂矿市场的关注度显著提 升。 此轮 ...

Group 1 - The lithium carbonate market experienced a strong opening after the Lunar New Year, with the main futures contract opening high and reaching a maximum of 165,800 yuan/ton, marking a daily increase of 10.56%, the largest since its listing [1] - The spot market also saw a rise, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 152,000 yuan/ton, up 8,250 yuan/ton (5.74%), and industrial-grade lithium carbonate averaging 148,500 yuan/ton, also up 8,250 yuan/ton (5.88%) [1] - The A-share lithium mining index surged by 3.77%, with major stocks like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Yongxing Materials seeing increases of over 5% [1] Group 2 - UBS raised its lithium price forecast significantly, predicting an average price of 170,000 yuan/ton for 2026, and 200,000 yuan/ton for 2027, driven by increasing demand from electric vehicles and global energy storage [2] - A fire at a lithium salt factory in Jiangxi, a major production area, raised concerns about production stability, contributing to the upward price pressure [2] - The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to eliminate certain tariffs is expected to lower the overall tariff costs for Chinese energy storage products exported to the U.S. by about 5%, positively impacting the profit margins of related companies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market saw a significant rally in lithium mining stocks, driven by a substantial increase in lithium carbonate prices, which rose over 9% to 162,160 yuan per ton [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Hebang Biotechnology, Yuntu Holdings, and Chuanfa Longmang all hit the daily limit with a 10% increase [1]. - Yongxing Materials and Shengxin Lithium Energy rose over 6%, while Ganfeng Lithium and Salt Lake Shares increased by more than 5% [1]. - Other notable performers included Jiangte Motor, Hainan Mining, and Tibet Summit, all gaining over 4% [1]. Group 2: Market Data - The following stocks showed significant price changes: - Hebang Biotechnology: +10.08%, Market Cap: 23.1 billion yuan, YTD Gain: 15.93% [2] - Yuntu Holdings: +10.01%, Market Cap: 19.5 billion yuan, YTD Gain: 36.72% [2] - Chuanfa Longmang: +10.00%, Market Cap: 24.1 billion yuan, YTD Gain: 16.74% [2] - Yongxing Materials: +6.40%, Market Cap: 29.7 billion yuan, YTD Gain: 1.42% [2] - Shengxin Lithium Energy: +6.18%, Market Cap: 38.1 billion yuan, YTD Gain: 20.77% [2] - Ganfeng Lithium: +5.34%, Market Cap: 146.5 billion yuan, YTD Gain: 11.08% [2] - Salt Lake Shares: +5.05%, Market Cap: 187.1 billion yuan, YTD Gain: 25.57% [2]

2026年2月24日早盘，有色金属、小金属涨幅居前，截至11:10，中证稀有金属主题指数强势上涨 3.00%，成分股铂科新材上涨9.34%，永兴材料上涨7.27%，钒钛股份上涨6.69%，中稀有色，株冶集团 等个股跟涨。 稀土价格持续强势上行，国金证券指出，氧化镨钕、氧化铽、氧化镝等主要稀土氧化物价格本期环比分 别上涨13.51%、5.90%、9.02%，创近年新高，主因供给侧改革持续推进叠加中钇富铕矿加工费升至4.1 万元/吨，反映冶炼环节出清与格局优化正加速兑现；同时12月我国稀土永磁出口量同比+7%，单月创 历史同期新高，显示海外补库需求依然旺盛，稀土板块估值与业绩双升逻辑进一步强化。 钨方面，钨精矿及仲钨酸铵价格本期环比分别大涨15.99%和15.11%，银河证券分析认为，海外战略备 库动向显著增强支撑逻辑——美国两党议员提议设立25亿美元"战略韧性储备"，叠加我国对日两用物项 出口管制升级及特朗普政府拟将2027财年军费提至1.5万亿美元，共同推升钨作为关键军工金属的优先 级与长期价格中枢。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证稀有金属主题指数前十大权重股分别为洛阳钼业、北方稀土、华 友钴业、盐 ...

（3）新能源及小金属板块：新能源及小金属受假期效应影响交投平淡。锂板块矿端点价相对活跃，下 游已完成部分节前补库，后续方向有赖于电动车及储能终端增速的验证；镍板块受印尼产业政策落地及 矿端紧缺预期影响，成本重心上移形成底部支撑。稀土市场因节假日询报价热度降低，下游磁材需求偏 弱致成交受限，但随着金融属性对该板块的渗透加深，后续价格波动的弹性或将有所放大。 截至2026年2月24日 10:44，有色金属ETF(512400)上涨3.69%，盘中换手2.13%，成交8.02亿元。跟踪指 数中证申万有色金属指数成分股白银有色上涨10.03%，铂科新材上涨8.23%，铜陵有色上涨7.80%，永 兴材料，兴业银锡等个股跟涨。 有色金属ETF(512400)紧密跟踪中证申万有色金属指数，中证申万有色金属指数从沪深市场申万有色金 属及非金属材料行业中选取50只上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映沪深市场有色金属行业上市公司证 券的整体表现。指数前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、北方稀土、中国铝业、华友钴业、中金 黄金、山东黄金、兴业银锡、赣锋锂业、赤峰黄金。 春节期间海外有色金属市场整体呈现偏强震荡格局，三方面因素共同重塑 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the lithium industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The lithium industry is expected to transition from a state of "realistic oversupply" to "future tightness," marking 2026 as a pivotal year for price recovery [19] - The financial attributes of lithium have strengthened, with market expectations likely to lead pricing ahead of fundamental improvements [20] - The absolute price heights may be difficult to replicate, but a gradual increase in the price floor is more certain [21] Summary by Sections 1. Overall Viewpoint Discussion - 2026 is anticipated to be a turning point for lithium prices, moving from a low base to a higher equilibrium due to limited supply elasticity and sustained demand growth [19] - The demand for lithium is projected to maintain a compound growth rate of over 20%, driven by the expansion of renewable energy installations and AI-related infrastructure [19] 2. 2025 Lithium Price Review - In Q1 2025, lithium prices experienced fluctuations due to supply constraints and strong demand expectations, with prices peaking at approximately 78,500 CNY/ton [22] - Q2 2025 saw a decline in prices due to a supply-demand imbalance, with prices dropping to around 60,400 CNY/ton by the end of June [29] - Q3 2025 marked a recovery in prices, driven by supply-side disruptions and seasonal demand increases, with prices reaching approximately 72,700 CNY/ton by September [36] 3. Demand Analysis - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow significantly, with energy storage becoming a core growth driver, potentially surpassing 30% of total lithium demand by 2026 [8] - The global electric vehicle market is projected to continue its growth trajectory, although at a slightly reduced pace [19] 4. Supply Analysis - Capital expenditures in the lithium sector have decreased significantly, leading to a structural delay in new project approvals and expansions [10] - The report anticipates limited new supply additions in the coming years, with a projected net increase of 448,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2026 [18] 5. Supply-Demand Balance Analysis - The report suggests that the lithium market may not require a complete supply clearing to reverse the current trends, as both supply and demand are expected to increase [38] - Inventory levels are seen as a lagging indicator rather than a decisive factor in price movements [39] 6. Investment Recommendations - Companies with expansion projects in the next three years are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, including Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, and Shengxin Lithium Energy [12] - Companies with diversified business models that can stabilize profits amid lithium price fluctuations are also recommended, such as Zhongmin Resources and Yahua Group [12]

据生意社监测，碳酸锂02月13日最新价格145000.00元/吨，最近5天上涨6.62%，60天上涨50.68%。 相关生产商有：天齐锂业（002466） 赣锋锂业（002460） 西藏矿业（000762） 盐湖股份（000792） 江 特电机（002176） 融捷股份（002192） 雅化集团（002497） 盛新锂能（002240） 藏格矿业（000408） 永兴材料（002756） 中矿资源（002738） 天华新能（300390） 川能动力（000155） 金银河（300619） 宁德时代（300750） 科力远（600478） 芳源股份（688148） 红星发展（600367） 永杉锂业（603399） 等。 【周期股选股方法】 周期股特指原材料生产型的上市公司，该公司的利润高低受原材料价格波动影响；因此利用生意社原材 料价格的涨跌数据，提前于季报与年报，发现周期股买入信号，是投资周期股的重要方法。欢迎使用生 意社股票通。 据生意社监测，碳酸锂02月13日最新价格145000.00元/吨，最近5天上涨6.62%，60天上涨50.68%。 相关生产商有：天齐锂业（002466） 赣锋锂业（002460 ...

2月12日，永兴材料大宗交易成交84.5万股，成交额4193.62万元，占当日总成交额的5.59%，成交价 49.63元，较市场收盘价50.9元折价2.5%。 | 权益类证券大宗交易 (协议交易) | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 买方营业部 | 卖方 | | | | | (元) | (万股/万份) | (万元) | | | | 2026-02-12 | 002756 | 永兴材料 | 49.63 | 84.50 | 4,193.62 发证券股份有限 | | 广发证券胎 | ...

经济观察网 永兴材料（002756）近7天股价呈现波动走势。截至2026年2月11日最新数据，股价报48.69 元，当日上涨2.08%，成交额3.71亿元，换手率1.97%。近7天区间涨跌幅为-1.12%，振幅达7.74%，其中 2月5日单日下跌4.55%，2月6日反弹上涨3.79%，2月10日再次下跌2.07%。资金面上，2月11日主力资金 净流入1831.77万元，但近3日主力净流出2142.65万元，显示短期资金分歧。技术面显示股价处于震荡区 间，20日布林带压力位57.27元，支撑位45.7元，MACD指标偏弱。 近期事件 2026年2月9日，永兴材料在互动平台回应投资者时表示，公司锂离子电池业务专注于钛酸锂电池研发， 主要产品为方形铝壳钛酸锂电池及系统，可应用于电网调频、可再生能源、轨道交通等领域。该回应未 涉及具体财务数据，但强调了业务布局。 机构观点 机构对永兴材料关注度一般，最新综合目标价为56.80元，较当前股价有15.35%的上涨空间。盈利预测 显示，2025年净利润同比预计下滑17.69%，2026年有望实现106.90%增长，主要基于锂价回升预期。近 期机构评级以中性为主，无新增买入或 ...

南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年02月11日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、期货数据 碳酸锂期货价格区间 品种 价格区间预测 当前波动率（20日滚动） 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） 碳酸锂主力合约 支撑位：120000 115.3% 96.5% source： 同花顺,南华研究 碳酸锂期限结构图 source： 同花顺,南华研究 146,860 148,300 150,100 150,260 150,080 150,700 150,100 150,600 150,720 150,600 150,240 150,640 127,600 131,720 132,500 132,920 133,280 133,620 132,060 133,500 131,160 132,680 133,340 133,100 166,000 166,060 166,420 166,280 166,500 166,920 166,600 166,800 166,100 167 ...