机构观点显示，有色金属行业一季度将延续平稳运行态势，全年工业增加值预计增长5%左右，营业收 入和利润有望保持增长。从价格走势看，近期国际金价持续走高，工业金属价格同步回暖，小金属、能 源金属等子板块表现突出。全球流动性改善预期下，叠加美联储降息周期启动，有色金属作为顺周期板 块，在需求端改善与资金流入推动下，具备持续上行动力，行业配置价值显著提升。 有色金属ETF(512400)紧密跟踪中证申万有色金属指数，中证申万有色金属指数从沪深市场申万有色金 属及非金属材料行业中选取50只上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映沪深市场有色金属行业上市公司证 券的整体表现。指数前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、北方稀土、中国铝业、华友钴业、中金 黄金、山东黄金、兴业银锡、赣锋锂业、赤峰黄金。 有色金属ETF(512400)，场外联接(A类：004432；C类：004433)。 截至2026年2月27日 10:16，有色金属ETF(512400)一度涨超3%，现涨2.83%，盘中换手2.37%，成交9.44 亿元。跟踪指数中证申万有色金属指数成分股中钨高新上涨9.04%，厦门钨业上涨8.92%，锡业股份上 涨8.53%，中稀 ...

一、 一键布局有色全赛道 近期有色板块调整并非趋势终结 ：有色金属板块近期出现短期波动，但市场基 本已消化了特朗普提名沃什为下一任美联储主席的冲击，降息仍是大方向，贵 金属根本逻辑并未改变，各金属品种的定价有望回归基本面。 宏观、供需、资金维度均支撑贵金属定价 ：宏观层面，美联储开启降息周期， 全球流动性转向宽松，直接利好有色金属价格；从供需来看，历史上央行购金 与黄金价格存在较强相关性，近年来央行购金快速提升，支撑金价表现；此 外，黄金投资价值的提升吸引了大量投资者涌入以ETF计价的黄金市场。 新兴产业的发展为工业金属提供大量新增需求 ：在产业层面，人工智能、新能 源这些新兴产业的发展远远超出市场预期，新兴领域的发展成为需求增长的新 引擎，比如AI数据中心建设、电网升级、新能源转型等，这为铜、铝等金属带 来了需求弹性、打开长期需求增长空间。 二、 中证申万有色金属指数投资价值分析 中证申万有色金属指数（000819.SH） 发布于2012年5月9日，指数从沪深市场申万有 色金属及非金属材料行业中选取50只上市公司证券作为指数样本，以 反映沪深市场 有色金属行业上市公司证券的整体表现 。指数基本包括了有色金属 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月25日 基金投资价值分析 一键布局有色全赛道——南方中证申万有色金属 ETF 投资价 值分析 一键布局有色全赛道 近期有色板块调整并非趋势终结：有色金属板块近期出现短期波动，但市场 基本已消化了特朗普提名沃什为下一任美联储主席的冲击，降息仍是大方 向，贵金属根本逻辑并未改变，各金属品种的定价有望回归基本面。 宏观、供需、资金维度均支撑贵金属定价：宏观层面，美联储开启降息周期， 全球流动性转向宽松，直接利好有色金属价格；从供需来看，历史上央行购 金与黄金价格存在较强相关性，近年来央行购金快速提升，支撑金价表现； 此外，黄金投资价值的提升吸引了大量投资者涌入以 ETF 计价的黄金市场。 新兴产业的发展为工业金属提供大量新增需求：在产业层面，人工智能、新 能源这些新兴产业的发展远远超出市场预期，新兴领域的发展成为需求增长 的新引擎，比如 AI 数据中心建设、电网升级、新能源转型等，这为铜、铝 等金属带来了需求弹性、打开长期需求增长空间。 南方中证申万有色金属 ETF（512400）是南方基金发行的一只以跟踪中证 申万有色金属指数为目标的 ETF 基金，基金经理为崔蕾女士，是市场上有 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月25日 基金投资价值分析 一键布局有色全赛道——南方中证申万有色金属 ETF 投资价 值分析 一键布局有色全赛道 近期有色板块调整并非趋势终结：有色金属板块近期出现短期波动，但市场 基本已消化了特朗普提名沃什为下一任美联储主席的冲击，降息仍是大方 向，贵金属根本逻辑并未改变，各金属品种的定价有望回归基本面。 宏观、供需、资金维度均支撑贵金属定价：宏观层面，美联储开启降息周期， 全球流动性转向宽松，直接利好有色金属价格；从供需来看，历史上央行购 金与黄金价格存在较强相关性，近年来央行购金快速提升，支撑金价表现； 此外，黄金投资价值的提升吸引了大量投资者涌入以 ETF 计价的黄金市场。 新兴产业的发展为工业金属提供大量新增需求：在产业层面，人工智能、新 能源这些新兴产业的发展远远超出市场预期，新兴领域的发展成为需求增长 的新引擎，比如 AI 数据中心建设、电网升级、新能源转型等，这为铜、铝 等金属带来了需求弹性、打开长期需求增长空间。 中证申万有色金属指数投资价值分析 证券分析师：张欣慰 证券分析师：杨昕宇 截至 2026 年 2 月 11 日，中证申万有色金属指数的市盈率为 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) and the underlying factors driving market sentiment, including U.S. tariff policy changes, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic data affecting interest rate expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) increased by 3.69%, with a trading volume of 8.02 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.13% [1]. - Key stocks in the index, such as silver and platinum, saw significant gains, with silver rising by 10.03%, platinum by 8.23%, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals by 7.80% [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The reversal of U.S. tariff policies, following a Supreme Court ruling, has led to increased market uncertainty, with tariffs raised from 10% to 15% on global goods [1]. - Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have heightened global risk aversion, contributing to a shift in market sentiment [1]. - Strong employment data in the U.S. and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have delayed interest rate cut expectations from June to July [1]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - **Precious Metals Sector**: The geopolitical tensions and tariff policy fluctuations have significantly increased market risk aversion and policy uncertainty premiums. Silver faces delivery concerns due to low inventory levels, while macroeconomic uncertainties support long-term investment value in precious metals [2]. - **Industrial Metals Sector**: This sector is currently in a phase of competition between macro expectations and seasonal fundamentals. Copper is supported by low terminal inventories, while aluminum faces temporary inventory pressures due to holiday shutdowns [2]. - **New Energy and Minor Metals Sector**: This sector is experiencing subdued trading activity due to holiday effects. Lithium prices are active, while nickel is supported by supply constraints from Indonesia. The rare earth market is seeing reduced demand, but financial attributes may increase price volatility in the future [3]. Group 4: ETF Overview - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) closely tracks the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-ferrous Metal Index, which includes 50 listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal industry in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [3]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing short-term pressure due to pre-holiday sentiment, but there are structural opportunities in specific sub-sectors [2] - The global non-ferrous metals industry is expected to enter a "recovery cycle with supply constraints" from 2026 to 2027, with copper and aluminum prices shifting from supply constraints and loose liquidity in 2026 to demand recovery in 2027 [2] - The supply growth of electrolytic aluminum is projected to be only 1.7% in 2026, with a supply gap of over 800,000 tons; electrolytic copper supply growth is 2.4% while demand growth is 3.3%, indicating a shift from surplus to shortage [2] Group 2 - Tungsten is expected to see a continued supply-demand shortage due to China's mining control policies, leading to sustained price increases from 2026 to 2027 [3] - Rare earth permanent magnets are experiencing tightening supply-side integration, with improving demand expectations for exports, indicating a fundamental improvement [3] - Cobalt is projected to face a global shortage due to supply reduction policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with strong upward momentum in the short term [3] Group 3 - Lithium is benefiting from the rising demand for energy storage batteries and domestic supply disruptions, potentially at the bottom of its cycle [3] - Nickel is expected to clear supply issues from the second half of 2026 to 2027 due to Indonesia's quota policies, with prices likely to rise if economic recovery boosts stainless steel demand [3] - Magnesium is gaining traction in the lightweighting sector of new energy vehicles due to its higher cost-effectiveness compared to aluminum, indicating improved industry sentiment [3] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metals ETF (512400) closely tracks the CSI Shenyin Wanguo Non-Ferrous Metals Index, which selects 50 listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, China Aluminum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF and the expected profit growth of Zijin Mining in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1][2] - As of December 31, 2025, the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) rose by 0.31% with a turnover of 3.77%, totaling 784 million yuan [1] - The index tracking the non-ferrous metal sector, the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metal Index, includes key stocks such as Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper, which have shown significant price increases [1][2] Group 2 - Zijin Mining announced an expected net profit of approximately 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, representing an increase of about 59% to 62% compared to the previous year [1] - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring gains is projected to be around 47.5 to 48.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 50% to 53% [1] - The sales prices of gold, copper, and silver are expected to rise year-on-year during the reporting period, contributing to the profit growth [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the supply tightness trend is the fundamental driver for copper price increases, with a positive outlook for the copper sector's mid-term investment value [2] - The Chilean Manto Verde copper-gold mine is facing strike risks, which may increase supply uncertainty in 2026 [1] - The supply-side constraints are expected to continue due to potential disruptions from strikes and other events, while downstream demand for copper is anticipated to grow due to upgrades in electrical grids in Europe and North America, as well as the global transition to clean energy [2] Group 2 - The ETF tracking the non-ferrous metals sector, specifically the CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index, has shown a 2.04% increase with a trading volume of 242 million yuan [1] - Key stocks in the index include Jiangxi Copper, which rose by 9.07%, and other companies like Guocheng Mining and Shengxin Lithium Energy, which also saw significant gains [1] - The index comprises 50 listed companies selected from the non-ferrous metals and non-metallic materials sectors to reflect the overall performance of the industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by macroeconomic benefits, policy support, and supply constraints, leading to optimistic market sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400.SH) rising by 1.76% and Zijin Mining increasing by 2.11% [1] - Precious metals are gaining strength due to a weaker US dollar and escalating geopolitical risks, supported by their financial and safe-haven attributes [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The industrial metals sector is performing strongly, driven by expectations of macroeconomic easing and rigid supply [1] - Policy encouragement for mergers and acquisitions is expected to enhance the bargaining power of leading companies, reinforcing the sector's logic [1] - Copper is driven by expectations of future supply shortages, while aluminum benefits from low inventory and favorable policies, indicating potential for price recovery [1] Group 3: Sub-sector Insights - The performance of new energy metals and minor metals shows divergence, with raw material shortages being a key variable [1] - Cobalt is supported by expectations of overseas supply disruptions, lithium prices are fluctuating at high levels, and rare earths are adjusting in the short term due to demand impacts, with long-term value reassessment driven by policy [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to maintain a strong trend supported by macroeconomic, policy, and supply factors, with a focus on the rigid supply logic of copper and aluminum, as well as the allocation value of precious metals [1]

Group 1: Copper and Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals ETF (512400) surged nearly 2%, aiming for a third consecutive increase, with a trading volume of 119 million yuan as of 10:16 AM on March 26, 2025 [1] - The index tracking the non-ferrous metals sector, the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index, rose by 0.61%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Northern Copper (up 7.02%), Silver Non-Ferrous (up 4.32%), Jiangxi Copper (up 3.62%), and Jinli Permanent Magnet (up 2.76%) [1] - On March 25, 2025, copper futures prices on the New York Commodity Exchange (Comex) reached a historical high of $5.2145 per pound, surpassing the previous record of $5.199 set on May 20, 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Guosheng Securities indicated that expectations of tariffs and current shortages are driving up copper prices, with anticipation of macroeconomic stimulus leading to increased downstream demand [1] - Xinda Futures noted that the demand season supports copper demand, alongside a positive domestic macro sentiment and easing concerns over mining tightness, suggesting that copper prices may maintain a strong trend moving forward [1] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Dongfang Securities reported that the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged during the meeting from March 17 to 23, 2025, aligns with expectations, with guidance indicating two rate cuts within the year [2] - The Fed's decision to reduce the pace of balance sheet reduction starting April 1, 2025, from a monthly cap of $25 billion to $5 billion, signals a loosening of monetary policy, which is expected to positively impact gold prices [2] - The improvement in dollar liquidity and the opening of future rate cut space are seen as favorable for investment opportunities in the gold sector [2]