2月11日，社交媒体网络上广泛流传一张截图，称光模块公司订单路径发生改变，CSP绕过公司（如中际 旭创），通过下单给 上游的 激光设备公司 Lumentum，再经Lumentum指定模组/组装厂的方式，跳过 中间层下单，从而压缩中国模组厂的毛利。 截至2月11日收盘，中际旭创下跌4.28%， 报收531.91元/股。 综合自：中际旭创等 责编：刘珺宇 校对：高源 百万用户都在看 中际旭创在互动平台表示，光模块产品由光模块厂商按照CSP客户对数据中心网络的需求进行定制化开发 和设计，需要光模块厂商拥有高效的研发技术能力和成熟的制造工艺、充足的产能和大规模制造与交付能 力，且经过CSP客户严格的产品送测、资格认证和审厂后才能成为CSP客户供应链上的合格供应商。因 此，CSP客户会直接下订单给公司，由公司制造后直接交付给CSP客户，这个商业模式并没有改变。不存 在所谓的CSP客户下订单给上游光芯片厂，跳过公司等中间层再转单给光芯片指定的模组/组装厂生产的 情形。 利好来了！刚刚，福建重磅发布！ 央行，重磅发布！商业航天，大消息！算力，利好！脑机接口，重大突破！影响一周市场的十大消息 重大信号！49万亿巨头，批量减持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CPO (Optical Module) concept has experienced a significant decline, particularly with leading companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, which saw drops of 5.46% and 4.28% respectively, resulting in a combined market value loss of nearly 50 billion [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The immediate trigger for the decline in the CPO concept was a widely circulated claim on social media that order paths for optical module companies had changed, allowing CSPs to bypass companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and place orders directly with upstream laser equipment companies like Lumentum, thereby compressing the gross margins of Chinese module manufacturers [1][8] - Following the rumors, Zhongji Xuchuang issued a statement denying the existence of such order bypassing scenarios [8] Group 2: Industry Trends - The CPO sector is no longer the main focus of the market or the AI computing industry in 2023, as the explosive growth seen in previous years has subsided [3][10] - The primary driver for the CPO industry's past success was the rapid growth of AI computing infrastructure in the U.S., where Chinese optical module companies became key players in the supply chain [3][10] - Current market sentiment indicates a shift in focus from North American AI computing prospects, which are now viewed with skepticism, to domestic developments in AI computing, particularly with the anticipated entry of NVIDIA's H200 and the ramp-up of domestic AI chips [3][10] Group 3: Future Projections - Morgan Stanley has projected a staggering increase in China's AI inference token consumption, estimating it will grow from approximately 10 trillion in 2025 to about 3,900 trillion by 2030, representing a growth of around 370 times with a compound annual growth rate of 330% [4][11] - With strong policy support, domestic AI computing infrastructure is expected to accelerate, leading to increased orders and performance for companies focused on the domestic market [6][13] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The CPO industry faces challenges due to its previous high performance and large market capitalization, which makes it difficult for domestic growth to significantly impact their valuations [7][13] - The focus for investment in the AI hardware sector is shifting towards areas beyond CPO, such as the domestic chip supply chain, advanced packaging technologies, and cooling solutions, which are essential for managing the higher power consumption of domestic chips compared to NVIDIA's [7][13]

Group 1 - The core concern raised by investors is that CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) may bypass the company by placing orders directly with upstream suppliers like Lumentum, which could undermine the company's position in the supply chain [2][3] - Following the news, shares of major optical module companies, including the company in question, experienced declines, with the company’s stock dropping by 4.28% [3] - The company responded to investor concerns by clarifying that its business model remains unchanged, stating that CSPs directly place orders with them after rigorous qualification processes, and there is no scenario where CSPs would bypass them [4]

划重点 ① 2026 年，全球算力基建正式跨入"连接为王"的通信大年。当 AI 集群规模冲向更大级别，1.6T 速率让传统铜缆因电阻热效应撞上物理天花 板，光电转换从备选项跃升为唯一解。这场由大模型迭代倒逼出的"光速互联"革命，正开启一场比 2000 年光纤时代更具实力的价值重估。 ② LITE 靠垂直整合实现从"零件差价"到"系统溢价"的跨越；COHR 通过精简业务、聚焦核心资产以收割 AI 最肥美的利润；黑马 AAOI 则凭 借 LPO 方案的成本优势与微软深度绑定，展现极高弹性。硅光子、CPO 与 LPO 三线并进，核心目标只有一个：消灭能耗与延迟，重塑 1.6T 时代的定价权。 ③ 不同于 2000 年的供给泡沫，2026 年是需求倒逼下的刚需基建。虽然估值波动与技术更迭仍是变量，但投资逻辑已发生质变：核心不再是算 力多强，而是连接能效多高。拥有芯片自研能力与巨头订单的厂商，正接过 GPU 的火炬，点亮 AI 时代的下半场红利。 站在 2026 年来看，全球算力基建的叙事正发生一场深刻的权力交接。如果说 2024 至 2025 年是属于英伟达和芯片代工厂的"GPU 盛世"，那么 2026 年则 正式开 ...

有投资者问，近日有新闻说CSP绕过公司，通过下单给Lumentum上游，再经Lumentum指定模组/组装厂的方式，跳过中间层下单，请董秘尽快出来 辟谣，给投资者以信心。 中际旭创在互动平台表示，光模块产品由光模块厂商按照CSP客户对数据中心网络的需求进行定制化开发和设计，需要光模块厂商拥有高效的研发技 术能力和成熟的制造工艺、充足的产能和大规模制造与交付能力，且经过CSP客户严格的产品送测、资格认证和审厂后才能成为CSP客户供应链上的 合格供应商。因此，CSP客户会直接下订单给公司，由公司制造后直接交付给CSP客户，这个商业模式并没有改变。 不存在所谓的CSP客户下订单给 上游光芯片厂，跳过公司等中间层再转单给光芯片指定的模组/组装厂生产的情形。 小财注： 2月11日，社交媒体网络上广泛流传一张截图，称光模块公司订单路径发生改变，CSP绕过公司（如中际旭创），通过下单给上游的激光设 备公司Lumentum，再经Lumentum指定模组/组装厂的方式，跳过中间层下单，从而压缩中国模组厂的毛利。CSP是指大型云服务提供商（Cloud Service Provider），如谷歌、亚马逊、微软、Meta等科技巨头。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the machinery equipment industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The machinery equipment sector is experiencing significant growth driven by increased demand for efficient cooling solutions in data centers and AI infrastructure [3][22] - Major companies like Trane Technologies and Johnson Controls are reporting strong order growth, indicating a robust market environment [9][15] - Google's substantial capital expenditure plans for 2026 highlight the increasing investment in AI and cloud infrastructure, which is expected to further boost demand for related equipment [21] Summary by Sections 1. Trane Technologies Financial Review - Trane Technologies reported Q4 2025 revenue of $5.1 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EPS of $2.86, up 10% [9] - The company saw a 24% increase in new orders, with a record backlog of $7.8 billion, indicating strong future revenue potential [10] - The commercial HVAC business is a key growth driver, with orders up over 35% in Q4 2025 [10] 2. Johnson Controls Performance - Johnson Controls achieved Q1 2026 revenue of $5.8 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year, with a 39% rise in self-owned business orders [15] - The company has raised its adjusted EPS guidance for FY 2026 to approximately $4.70, reflecting a 25% year-over-year growth [15] - The introduction of new products like the YORK YDAM chiller is aimed at enhancing data center cooling solutions [20] 3. Google's Cloud Business - Alphabet reported Q4 2025 revenue of $113.8 billion, an 18% increase, with cloud revenue growing 48% due to AI infrastructure demand [21] - The company plans to invest $175 to $185 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, nearly doubling its previous year's investment [21] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the growth in data centers will create opportunities for Chinese cooling equipment manufacturers, such as Ice Wheel Environment and Linde Co., to capitalize on the demand for cooling solutions [22] - Companies like Invek, which provide comprehensive liquid cooling solutions, are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of this trend [22] 5. Caterpillar Financial Review - Caterpillar reported 2025 revenue of $67.6 billion, a 4% increase, with Q4 revenue reaching a record $19.1 billion [28] - The power and energy segment saw a 23% increase in sales, driven by demand from data centers [29] - The construction machinery segment also grew, but profit margins were pressured by rising costs [29]

中际旭创在互动平台表示，光模块产品由光模块厂商按照CSP客户对数据中心网络的需求进行定制化开 发和设计，需要光模块厂商拥有高效的研发技术能力和成熟的制造工艺、充足的产能和大规模制造与交 付能力，且经过CSP客户严格的产品送测、资格认证和审厂后才能成为CSP客户供应链上的合格供应 商。因此，CSP客户会直接下订单给公司，由公司制造后直接交付给CSP客户，这个商业模式并没有改 变。不存在所谓的CSP客户下订单给上游光芯片厂，跳过公司等中间层再转单给光芯片指定的模组/组 装厂生产的情形。 CSP是指大型云服务提供商（Cloud Service Provider），如谷歌、亚马逊、微软、Meta等科技巨头。 这一网络"小作文"，引发市场对光模块龙头企业的担忧，2月11日收盘，中际旭创、新易盛、光库科技 等光模块概念股的股价均有不同程度下跌。其中，"被点名"的中际旭创下跌4.28%。 就此，有投资者问在互动易向中际旭创提问，请董秘尽快出来辟谣。 2月11日，社交媒体网络上广泛流传一张截图，称光模块公司订单路径发生改变，CSP绕过公司（如中 际旭创），通过下单给上游的激光设备公司Lumentum，再经Lumentum指定 ...

Investment Rating - The communication industry is rated as "Cautiously Optimistic" with a focus on operators with sustained profit growth and enhanced network value, as well as companies benefiting from traffic growth and continuous technological innovation [6][41]. Core Insights - The communication sector experienced a decline of 6.73% from February 2 to February 6, 2026, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.39 percentage points [3][13]. - The sector's cumulative decline for 2026 is 1.63%, ranking it 27th among 30 sectors [3][14]. - The TTM PE ratio for the communication industry is 26.41, placing it in the 36.08 percentile [3][14]. - The smartphone market in China saw a total shipment of 307 million units in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, with 5G phones accounting for 86.9% of shipments [4][36]. - Global smartphone shipments grew by 2% in 2025, reaching 1.25 billion units, marking the highest level since 2021 [4][38]. Summary by Sections Communication Industry Market Review - The communication sector's performance was notably poor, with a significant drop in stock prices and a low ranking among other sectors [3][13]. - A total of 119 companies are listed in the communication sector, with 30 companies seeing stock price increases and 88 experiencing declines during the review period [3][14]. Industry News - As of December 2025, China has built 4.838 million 5G base stations, with internet penetration exceeding 80% [17]. - The number of internet users reached 1.125 billion, with a significant increase in generative AI users [17][20]. - The production of optical cables in China decreased by 5.3% in 2025, although the decline rate has slowed compared to previous years [20]. Weekly Focus: Consumer Electronics Data - The smartphone market in China is experiencing structural adjustments, with a notable decline in December 2025 shipments [5][40]. - Despite the overall decline, the proportion of 5G phones continues to rise, indicating a maturation of 5G technology [5][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious optimism for the communication industry, emphasizing the importance of profit growth and technological innovation for future investments [6][41].

我们1月6日开始独家挖掘，近期获得市场逐步认可上涨接近40%，但科瑞技术作为全市场唯二光耦合设备供应 商，估值与市值较罗博特科仍有较大空间，公司26年3.5亿利润，对应当前市值仅36倍PE，估值水平仍低，逢低继 续关注，有同学关心科瑞技术和罗博特科在光模块设备的异同，昨天我们已发过文件整理，核心有3点： 1、二者供应的设备种类类似，包括耦合、共晶、光纤打磨、AOI检测等，价值量占到光模块整线投资的60%以 上。 2、目前罗博特科在CPO和OCS等新技术设备的进度可能领先于科瑞，Ficontech作为老牌光模块设备厂商，布局新 技术更早，但是科瑞与HW在光模块领域的合作接近10年，积累了大量的技术，随着光模块的放量，科瑞凭借过去 十年的经验迅速进入海外龙头客户如Lumentum及Finisar，现在是800G和1.6T设备放量初期。 科瑞技术看好逻辑再更新： 昨晚美股光通信概念股延续强势，光模块巨头Lumentum再创历史新高，得益于OCS和CPO的强劲需求，Lumentum 不仅交出了一份营收利润双超预期的成绩单，Q2营收同比暴增65%，AI业务订单积压超4亿美元，更给出了高达 85%同比增长的下季度指引，光 ...

Core Insights - By 2026, global computing infrastructure will enter a "connection is king" era, driven by the limitations of traditional copper cables and the necessity for optical solutions to meet the demands of AI clusters [3][5][6] - Companies like LITE, COHR, and AAOI are leveraging vertical integration and strategic focus to transition from component pricing to system premium, aiming to eliminate energy consumption and latency [3][6][20] - Unlike the supply bubble of 2000, the 2026 infrastructure is driven by demand, with a shift in investment logic focusing on connection efficiency rather than raw computing power [3][28] Group 1: Physical Limits and Optical Solutions - The physical limitations of copper cables become apparent as signal rates reach 1.6T, leading to significant energy loss and heat accumulation in large AI clusters [9][10] - Optical technology is no longer an option but a necessity, with AI architects prioritizing connection density over raw computing power [11][12] - The share of connection components in total capital expenditure for data centers has surged from 15% to over 30% in three years [12] Group 2: Key Technologies and Innovations - Silicon photonics has crossed the 50% market share threshold in optical transceivers, becoming a critical weapon for cost reduction and production efficiency [14][15] - CPO technology aims to reduce energy demands by integrating optical engines directly with GPU or switch chips, potentially lowering energy needs by 50%-65% [16][17] - LPO technology offers a transitional solution for companies seeking cost-effective options without immediately switching to expensive CPO systems [18][19] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - LITE has transformed from a component supplier to a system provider, with 60% of its revenue linked to AI infrastructure and a revenue growth rate of 65% [23] - COHR is focusing on dual development in AI communication and power semiconductors, having divested non-core assets to concentrate on AI data centers [24] - AAOI, benefiting from deep ties with Microsoft and a flexible LPO approach, is positioned as a strong competitor in the mid-market segment [25] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The current market dynamics differ fundamentally from the 2000 bubble, as the 2026 scenario is characterized by demand-driven infrastructure rather than supply chasing demand [28] - Investment focus is shifting from who has the strongest computing power to who can connect the most computing power with the least energy consumption [30]