[Table_Page] 跟踪研究|房地产 证券研究报告 [万Table_Tit科le] A(000002.SZ)/ 万 科 企 业 公[Ta司ble评_Inv级est ] 买入-A/买入-H 当前价格 6.87元/4.16港元 (02202.HK) 合理价值 10.51元/9.82港元 前次评级 买入/买入 经营性业务承压，优化资产负债结构 报告日期 2024-04-28 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 收入下降业绩承压，利润率及减值影响盈利能力。根据公司年报，23 10% 年万科实现营业收入4657.4亿元，同比下降7.6%，归母净利润121.6 -2% 04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 04/24 -15% 亿元，同比下降 46.4%，受表内外利润率下降及资产减值影响，公司 -27% 开发业务盈利能力承压。股东回报方面，受市场景气等因素影响，公 -40% 司判断未来经营不确定性加大，为留足资金应对市场挑战，公司决定 -52% 万科A 沪深300 23年不派发股息、不送红股。 ⚫ 销售仍属第一梯队，拿地力 ...

TikTok 处境愈发危险 TikTok 处境愈发危险 美国众议院上周高票通过了一项包含对外援助和 TikTok "不卖就禁" 的法案，旨在以这种方式施压参议 院审议通过。新法案一共收到 360 张赞成票，只有 58 张反对票和 13 张弃权票。反对的人比 3 月那次更 少了（352-65）。 不过此次众议院通过的法案也有 "相对缓和" 的点：将出售 TikTok 的期限从 165 天延长到 270 天，如果 已经确定买家，总统可以再延期 90 天，理论上最长期限达到一年。 电车降价次数超去年全年 万科连续套现之后，还有哪些可以卖 英伟达一天市值少了 2100 亿美元 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 字节跳动明确反对把修改后的法案与美国对外援助预算案等捆绑在一起。 3 月对 TikTo 法案投了反对票、但这次赞成的众议院议员格雷戈里·米克斯（Gregory Meeks）表示，他之 前担心单独的 TikTok 法案授予了总统过于广泛，且可能遭到滥用的权力，但现在相信新版本的法案只 针对 TikTok。而且，新法案为复杂的剥离程序提供了更现实的时间表。 更长的窗口期很重要。3 月版本的 T ...

Group 1 - Vanke's subsidiary, Huaxia Wanwei, has received an inquiry from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding its closed-end infrastructure securities investment fund, which is expected to enter the pricing stage after the inquiry is resolved [1] - Vanke's commercial REIT has already exceeded public subscription targets, and the long-term rental apartment REIT is actively being applied for, positioning Vanke to potentially become the only company in the industry to achieve breakthroughs in three types of operational REITs [1] - The total number of publicly subscribed shares for the CICC Yingli REIT has surpassed the initial offering, with a total of 1 billion shares at a subscription price of 3.26 yuan per share, raising an estimated total of 3.26 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Vanke's Chairman Yu Liang emphasized the importance of REITs for operational real estate, likening it to mortgage loans for residential development, which can create a closed-loop business model and facilitate the transition from developer to real estate operator [1] - Experts believe that the breakthrough in operational REITs reflects market recognition of Vanke's transformation efforts and will help establish a more efficient and sustainable operational model for real estate assets and funds [1] - If Vanke successfully reduces interest-bearing debt by 100 billion yuan and streamlines the public REIT issuance process, it will transition from relying primarily on real estate development to a dual focus on development and real estate operations [1]

2024年4月16日 公司研究 开发业务表现承压，24 年提升去杠杆力度 ——万科（000002.SZ、2202.HK）动态跟踪 要点 A 股：买入（维持） 当 前价：7.07元 事件：公司发布23年年报、24年3月经营情况及4月投资者关系活动纪要。 H 股：买入（维持） 点评：开发业务承压，资产减值计提增加，24年或加速去杠杆保障财务安全。 当前价：3.87港元 开发业务结算承压，资产减值计提增加：2023年公司实现营收4657亿元，同 比减少7.6%，其中开发业务结算收入同比减少9.6%至4016亿元，主要因前期 销售下滑导致交付规模减少，截至23年末公司表内已售未结算的合同负债为 作者 3604亿元，同比下降32%，预期24年开发收入规模仍将下滑。2023年，公司 分析师：何缅南 综合毛利率为15.2%，同比降低4.3pct，开发业务结算毛利率为15.7%，同比 执业证书编号：S0930518060006 021-52523801 降低4.7pct，仍处于下降趋势中；归母净利润为121.6亿元，同比减少46.2%， hemiannan@ebscn.com 业绩大幅下滑一方面源于开发业务营收与毛利率下滑， ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/房地产/房地产 证券研究报告 万科 A（000002）公司公告点评 2024年04月17日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 坚定经营信心，积极应对阶段挑战 股票数据 [Table_Summary] 0[4Ta月b1le6_日S收to盘ck价（In元fo）] 7.07 投资要点： 52周股价波动（元） 6.91-15.94 总股本/流通A股（百万股） 11931/9717 总市值/流通市值（百万元） 84350/84299  2024年4月14日，公司发布《2024年4月14日投资者关系活动记录表》。 相关研究 积极应对阶段挑战，交付化债双重承诺。公司已制定一揽子稳定经营和降低 [《Ta多b元le业_R务e有p序or展tIn开fo，] 全力守护经营安全》  负债的方案，能够妥善化解阶段性压力，首先立足“自救”，其次是用足现 2024.04.01 有的各类融资工具。公司承诺，今明两年债务规模将下降1000亿元，债务风 《国资助力坚定信心，恪守财务安全底线》 险获得实质性化解；万科集团所有项目，将保证按时高质量交付。 2023.11.0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a downward adjustment [4]. Core Views - In a turbulent environment, a relatively conservative operational approach is a rational choice. The company plans to strengthen bulk and equity trading in 2024, aiming for cash inflows exceeding 30 billion yuan, demonstrating a commitment to cash flow management and enhancing safety margins. The short-term focus is on deleveraging, with plans to reduce interest-bearing debt by 100 billion yuan over the next two years, actively utilizing financing tools such as operational property loans, and fully integrating into the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism to promote a transformation in financing models. In the medium to long term, the company still possesses certain competitive advantages in brand and efficiency, maintaining a relatively stable position in the development business, with considerable value in its existing business. Amid overall industry pressure, the company's core task is to maintain a balanced cash flow, ensuring its survival value remains prominent after navigating liquidity pressures and successfully crossing the cycle [6][7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 465.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.16 billion yuan, down 46.4%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 9.79 billion yuan, a decline of 50.6%. The comprehensive gross margin was 15.2%, down 4.3 percentage points [5][6]. Sales and Investment - The company recorded a sales volume of 376.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.8%, maintaining a leading position in the industry. The total land acquisition investment was approximately 82.8 billion yuan, down 6.5%, with a floor price of 13,899 yuan per square meter, an increase of 13.0%. The investment intensity in terms of amount and area was 22.0% and 24.2%, respectively. The company plans to start construction on 10.72 million square meters and complete 22.06 million square meters in 2024, representing declines of 35.9% and 31.7% year-on-year [6][7]. Operational Resilience - The company's operational service business showed strong resilience, with total revenue reaching 55.81 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9%. The property revenue was 33.42 billion yuan, up 10.2%, and the commercial rental income was 9.11 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6%. The long-term rental apartment business achieved overall profitability for the first time under the cost method, managing 230,000 units and generating rental income of 3.46 billion yuan, up 6.8% [7][8]. Future Outlook - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 10.9 billion, 10.3 billion, and 9.9 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -10%, -5%, and -5%, respectively. The price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 9.8, 10.4, and 10.9 times [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and adjusts the target price to 8.37 yuan [2][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 465.74 billion yuan for 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.16 billion yuan, down 46.4% year-on-year. The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to a decrease in the settlement scale of development business and a drop in gross profit margin [1][5]. - Despite the challenging market conditions, the company demonstrated resilience with a cumulative sales amount of 376.1 billion yuan, ranking second in the industry, and a land acquisition amount of 84.91 billion yuan [1][5]. - The company has a healthy financial position with significant operating assets that provide ample financing space, and a short-term debt credit risk is low [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 465.74 billion yuan, down 7.6% from 2022, and a net profit of 12.16 billion yuan, down 46.4% year-on-year. The gross profit margin decreased to 15.2% [1][4][7]. - The company’s operating profit was 29.25 billion yuan, reflecting a 43.8% decline compared to the previous year [4][7]. Future Projections - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 11.08 billion, 9.25 billion, and 8.31 billion yuan respectively [2][4]. - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 417.96 billion, 369.40 billion, and 356.39 billion yuan, indicating a continued decline [4][7]. Business Operations - The company’s diversified business segments, including property management and logistics, showed stable growth with respective revenue increases of 10.2%, 17.2%, 6.8%, and 4.6% [1][5]. - The issuance of REITs is expected to enhance the value of operating assets and improve the financial structure [1][5].

证券研究报告 | 2024年04月04日 万科 A（000002.SZ） 买入 行业下行期业绩承压，全力保障现金流安全 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 营收相对稳定，但业绩承压。2023全年，公司实现营业收入4657亿元，同 房地产·房地产开发 比-8%；归母净利润122亿元，同比-46%。其中Q4单季度营业收入1754亿 证券分析师：任鹤 证券分析师：王粤雷 元，同比+6%；归母净利润-15亿元，首次出现亏损，主要因为年底计提存货 010-88005315 0755-81981019 renhe@guosen.com.cn wangyuelei@guosen.com.cn 跌价准备48.5亿元（含非并表）导致归母净利润减少35.5亿元。 S0980520040006 S0980520030001 毛利率持续筑底，持续影响归母净利率。2023年，公司综合毛利率15.2%， 证券分析师：王静 021-60893314 同比下滑4.3个百分点；归母净利率2.6%，同比下滑1.9个百分点。其中 wangjing20@guosen.com.cn Q4毛利率仅为11.4%，主要因为地价占售价的比例提升。2023年，公司归 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Accumulate" [3]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 46% year-on-year due to declining gross margins and increased impairment losses. The total revenue for 2023 was CNY 465.74 billion, down 7.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of CNY 12.16 billion [1][2]. - The company plans to reduce interest-bearing debt by CNY 100 billion over the next two years and is transitioning its financing model [1][2]. - The company is facing significant pressure from public debt maturity and needs effective and sustainable credit financing channels [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of CNY 465.74 billion, a decrease of 7.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 12.16 billion, down 46.4% year-on-year. The gross margin for real estate development and related asset operations fell by 4.4 percentage points to 15.4% [1][2]. - The company reported a decrease in sales area of 6.2% to 24.66 million square meters and a sales amount of CNY 376.12 billion, down 9.8% year-on-year [1]. Project Development - In 2023, the company acquired 43 new projects with a planned area of 3.333 million square meters, a decrease of 17.4% year-on-year. The land acquisition cost was CNY 46.32 billion, up 6.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to start and complete 1.0718 million square meters and 2.2057 million square meters of existing projects in 2024, respectively, which is a decrease of 37.2% and 29.6% compared to 2023 [1]. Diversification and REITs - The company's property service segment generated revenue of CNY 33.42 billion in 2023, up 10.2% year-on-year. The logistics business revenue was CNY 4.18 billion, up 17.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company has made progress in issuing public REITs, with a planned fundraising of CNY 3.26 billion for its logistics REIT [1]. Debt Management - As of the end of 2023, the company's total assets were CNY 1,504.85 billion, a decrease of 14.4% year-on-year. The net debt ratio was 54.7%, an increase of 11 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - The company aims to reduce interest-bearing debt by CNY 100 billion over the next two years and is actively utilizing various financing tools [1].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/房地产/房地产 证券研究报告 万科 A（000002）公司年报点评 2024年04月01日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 多元业务有序展开，全力守护经营安全 股票数据 [Table_Summary] 0[4Ta月b0le1_日S收to盘ck价（In元fo）] 8.98 投资要点： 52周股价波动（元） 8.89-16.25 总股本/流通A股（百万股） 11931/9717 总市值/流通市值（百万元） 107138/107073  业务结算规模下行，成本减值影响利润。2023年，公司实现营业收入4657.4 相关研究 亿元，同比下降7.6%；实现净利润204.6亿元，同比下降45.6%；实现归属 [《Ta国b资le助_R力e坚p定or信tIn心fo，] 恪守财务安全底线》 于上市公司股东的净利润 121.6亿元，同比下降 46.4%，主要原因是开发业 务结算规模和结算毛利率均有下降，且对部分开发项目计提了减值；每股基 2023.11.04 《财务稳健现金充裕，经营服务双位增长》 本盈利1.03元，同比下降47.3%；全面摊薄的净资产 ...