证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 22 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月22日 华源晨会精粹 20251222 固定收益 短期制约因素突出，当前经济或仍承压——利率周报：11 月经济数据与财 政收支数据相继披露，当前经济或仍持续承压。我们认为经济运行核心矛盾仍聚焦 于"旧动能调整拖累与新动能成长并存"，消费与投资的短期压力与财政收支的低 增长态势相互呼应。从经济运行基本面看，需求端或仍承压。消费与投资双引擎若 持续乏力，可能直接影响四季度经济增速预期，预计同比增速将较三季度有所放缓。 短期制约因素尤为突出：房地产市场仍在筑底阶段，居民消费短期仍可能保持谨慎 态度。2025 年 1-11 月财政收支情况显示，财政运行呈现"收入低增、支出中央地 方分化"的特征。当前经济与财政的运行态势，与 2025 年中央经济工作会议的政策 部署形成精准呼应。会议强化内需主导作用、突出企业创新主体地位，并新增"加 大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"的表述，为后续政策发力指明了方向。明年经济或呈 现弱修复态势，财政收支平衡压力或将持续。2026 年债市行情可能好于预期 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the event is the announcement of the "Annual Investment Value Award (Large Market Capitalization)" winners, which includes notable companies such as Alibaba, Bosideng, and Ideal Auto [1] - The award evaluates companies based on revenue and net profit growth, considering factors like company size, business model, management capability, and innovation [1] - The selection process involves quantitative data analysis and expert review to determine the final results [1] Group 2 - The "Golden Award" aims to create a valuable reference list of listed companies and unicorns, covering all companies listed on major exchanges including the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, and NASDAQ [2]

12月22日，格隆汇在线上举办"科技赋能·资本破局"分享会。本次分享会，备受瞩目的卓越公司评选榜 单将隆重揭晓，其中格隆汇"金格奖"年度卓越公司评选中，阿里巴巴(09988.HK/BABA.US)、波司登 (03998.HK)、均胜电子(600699.SH/00699.HK)、理想汽车(02015.HK/LI.US)、上美股份(02145.HK)、TCL 电子(01070.HK)、香港中华煤气(00003.HK)、心动公司(02400.HK)、招金矿业(01818.HK)、中国平安 (601318.SH/02318.HK) 10家企业荣获"年度投资价值奖（大市值）"奖项。（排名不分先后，按公司首部字母顺序排列） | | | 2025年度卓越公司评选榜单 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 公司代码 | 公司名称 | 公司代码 | | 阿里巴巴 | 09988.HK/BABA.US | TCL电子 | 01070.HK | | 波司登 | 03998.HK | 香港中华煤气 | 00003.HK | | 均胜电子 | 600699 SH/00699.HK | 心动公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry, but it provides specific recommendations for various sectors within the energy industry, indicating a positive outlook for certain companies and sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in electricity generation growth in November 2025, with total generation at 779.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. The growth was primarily driven by hydropower and wind power, while thermal power saw a decline [5][6]. - Natural gas prices in the U.S. and Europe have shown slight fluctuations, with U.S. Henry Hub spot prices at $3.58/mmBtu, reflecting a 12.1% weekly decline. Northeast Asia's LNG prices have also decreased, reaching $9.50/mmBtu, marking a 5% drop [18][19]. - The report emphasizes the increasing contribution of renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar, to the overall electricity generation mix, with significant year-on-year growth rates [6][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Generation - November 2025 saw total electricity generation of 779.2 billion kWh, up 2.7% year-on-year. Thermal power generation decreased by 4.2% to 497.0 billion kWh, while hydropower increased by 17.1% to 96.7 billion kWh. Wind power grew by 22.0% to 104.6 billion kWh, and solar power rose by 23.4% to 41.2 billion kWh [5][7]. - From January to November 2025, total electricity generation reached 88,567 billion kWh, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from hydropower, nuclear, wind, and solar energy [12][13]. 2. Natural Gas Market - As of December 19, 2025, U.S. Henry Hub spot prices were $3.58/mmBtu, down 12.1% from the previous week. European gas prices showed slight increases, with the Dutch TTF price at €28.10/MWh, up 2.0% [18][19]. - The report notes that the supply of natural gas remains high, with U.S. production at historical levels, contributing to the downward pressure on prices [18][19]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For thermal power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their integrated coal and power operations. For hydropower, companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are highlighted for their potential in the upcoming winter and spring [16][38]. - In the nuclear sector, China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are suggested as key players due to their stable cost structures and growth potential [16][38]. - Renewable energy operators like Xinneng Green Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended as the market for green certificates and environmental values continues to grow [16][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and environmental sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in electricity generation growth in November, with a total generation of 779.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. The contribution from hydropower and wind power is significant, while thermal power shows a decline [7][9]. - Natural gas prices in the US and Europe have shown slight fluctuations, with Northeast Asia's LNG prices continuing to decline, reaching $9.50/mmBtu, the lowest since May 2024 [21][34]. - The report suggests various investment opportunities across different sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and gas companies, emphasizing the importance of diversified revenue streams [19][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: November Generation Growth Slows, Hydropower and Wind Power Contribute Incrementally - November electricity generation totaled 779.2 billion kWh, with thermal power decreasing by 4.2% year-on-year, while hydropower increased by 17.1%, nuclear power by 4.7%, wind power by 22.0%, and solar power by 23.4% [7][9]. - The overall growth rate of electricity generation has slowed compared to the previous month, with hydropower and wind power contributing significantly to the incremental generation [8][9]. 2. Natural Gas: Global Gas Prices Show Minor Fluctuations, Asian and US Prices Continue to Decline - As of December 19, the Henry Hub spot price in the US was $3.58/mmBtu, down 12.10% week-on-week, while the TTF spot price in Europe was €28.10/MWh, up 2.00% [21][22]. - The report notes that the LNG ex-factory price in China was 4030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.70% week-on-week, indicating a trend of declining costs in the natural gas sector [39]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility and electricity sectors underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, while the gas and environmental sectors outperformed [44]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report discusses various company announcements and industry developments, including stable coal production and increased oil production rates, as well as significant investments in energy projects [46][48].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the public utility and environmental protection sectors, particularly in the context of coal-fired power, renewable energy, and waste-to-energy industries [1][6][10]. Core Insights and Arguments Coal-Fired Power Sector - In 2025, the coal-fired power sector is expected to perform well with a growth rate of approximately 13.3%, primarily due to declining coal prices [2]. - The flexibility and scarcity value of coal-fired power are highlighted, especially in regions with a high proportion of renewable energy [2][3]. - By 2026, the power supply-demand relationship is anticipated to shift towards structural looseness, leading to pressure on coal-fired utilization hours and market prices [1][3]. - New coal-fired power units are projected to peak in 2025-2026, with an annual addition of about 70 GW, increasing revenue pressure due to rising renewable energy installations [3]. Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on companies with controllable electricity price declines, new quality asset additions, or high dividend yields, such as Inner Mongolia Huadian and Huaneng International [1][3]. - Recommended stocks include national players like Huaneng International, Datang Power, and local companies like Inner Mongolia Haitan and Shaanxi Energy [3]. Renewable Energy Sector - The renewable energy sector is characterized by low valuations among Hong Kong-listed wind power operators, benefiting from reduced capital expenditure expectations and accelerated government subsidy recoveries [1][4]. - The cancellation of VAT refund policies in 2025 is expected to lead to more cautious capital expenditures among renewable energy operators [16]. - The sector is projected to see a significant increase in installed capacity, with annual additions expected to be between 150-200 GW over the next decade [16]. Waste-to-Energy and Biomass Diesel - The waste-to-energy sector is highlighted as a key emerging area for 2026, with significant growth potential and policy support [1][5]. - The industry has seen a substantial increase in the number of waste incineration facilities, with capacity rising from 25.59 million tons/day in 2016 to 115 million tons/day by 2024 [8]. - The sector's capital expenditure peaked in 2020 at 22.3 billion yuan, declining to 10.742 billion yuan by 2024, while free cash flow turned positive for the first time in 2024 [8]. Financial Performance and Market Dynamics - The public utility sector overall saw a 3.6% increase in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 12.8 percentage points, while the environmental sector rose by 16.1% [6]. - Concerns regarding subsidy delays and accounts receivable are gradually easing, with companies exploring new business models to enhance profitability [7][10]. Other Important Insights - The SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) industry is entering a growth phase, with demand expected to rise significantly due to EU regulations [21][22]. - The supply of Yoko (waste cooking oil) is limited, but its price has stabilized, and demand is expected to increase, benefiting companies with expansion plans [23]. - The waste-to-energy sector is also exploring international opportunities, such as projects in Indonesia, which could provide significant growth avenues for Chinese companies [9]. Recommended Companies - Key companies to watch include: - Waste-to-energy: Weiming Environmental, Huaneng International, and Longyuan Power [10][24]. - Gas sector: Hong Kong gas companies like Towngas and integrated gas companies in A-shares [13][24]. - Biomass diesel: Companies with scarce Yoko resources like Shanhai Environmental and Jiaao Environmental [24].

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 22 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 秦雨茁 qinyuzhuo@huayuanstock.com 投资评级： 看好（维持） 2026 年能源工作会议召开，北美 AI 缺电持续演绎 ——大能源行业 2025 年第 51 周周报（20251221） 投资要点： 电力：2026 年全国能源工作会议召开 多省"十五五"能源建设方向明确 全国能源工作会议召开，2026 年新增新能源装机 2 亿千瓦以上。12 月 15 日，2026 年全国能源工作会议在北京召开。会议肯定了 2025 年的能源保供成绩，预期以火电 为主的调节性电源在"十五五"期间仍将受到重 ...

Group 1 - Towngas and China Resources Land signed a strategic cooperation agreement to leverage Towngas's telecommunications infrastructure and AI solutions with China Resources Land's property management advantages to expand energy services and smart living business [1] - The collaboration will focus on three main topics: green low-carbon transformation, digital construction, and asset investment and industrial synergy, exploring cooperation potential in energy-efficient data center renovations, smart community platform development, and innovative value-added services [1] - The partnership aims to enhance asset operational efficiency and user service experience through resource sharing and technology integration, establishing a new model of cross-industry collaboration to contribute to Hong Kong's economic development [1] Group 2 - Towngas's Executive Director expressed excitement about collaborating with a significant enterprise like China Resources Land, emphasizing the complementary strengths in smart energy and community development [2] - The Chairman of China Resources Land highlighted that this strategic cooperation is a crucial step in fulfilling the needs of the nation, Hong Kong, and the capabilities of enterprises, focusing on technological innovation and green development [2] - Towngas is the oldest public utility in Hong Kong, actively transitioning towards green energy technology, with its subsidiary focusing on providing innovative one-stop solutions using AI and data center infrastructure [2][3] Group 3 - China Resources Land has been operating in Hong Kong for over 40 years, building three core platforms: asset management, comprehensive property management, and ecological services, driven by digital operations and value creation [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power sector, particularly following the increase in coal power capacity pricing in Yunnan, which is expected to stabilize revenue for coal power companies [6][8]. Core Insights - Yunnan has announced an increase in the coal power capacity price recovery of fixed costs to 100%, effective from 2026, which will enhance the stability of coal power revenues and support the integration of renewable energy sources [6][7]. - The report highlights a significant drop in natural gas prices in the U.S. and Northeast Asia, with the latter reaching a 20-month low, indicating a favorable environment for gas companies [10][24]. - The investment analysis suggests a diversified revenue model for coal power companies, transitioning from reliance on electricity sales to a combination of electricity, capacity, and ancillary service revenues [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Yunnan's new policy sets the coal power capacity price at 330 RMB per kilowatt per year, allowing full recovery of fixed costs, which is expected to improve the profitability of coal power plants [6][7]. - The province's total installed power capacity exceeds 168 million kilowatts, with over 90% being green energy, necessitating coal power for peak load support [7]. - The report recommends several companies, including Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian, for their integrated coal power operations [8]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - U.S. Henry Hub spot prices fell to $4.07/mmBtu, a decrease of 21.56% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia LNG prices dropped to $10/mmBtu, down 6.19% [10][11]. - The report notes that strong supply and high inventory levels in Northeast Asia are contributing to the price decline, with expectations of further price sensitivity from buyers as prices approach $10/mmBtu [24][26]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, which are expected to benefit from lower costs and improved margins [31][32]. 3. Market Performance - The report indicates that the power and equipment sectors outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the review period, while the gas and environmental sectors lagged [34]. - It provides a detailed valuation table for key utility companies, highlighting their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [46]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government policies emphasize the development of a clean, low-carbon energy system, with a target of 25% non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 [40][41]. - The report discusses the ongoing transition in the energy sector towards market-driven growth, particularly in new energy storage solutions [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, including China Power Investment Corporation, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Resources Power [48]. Core Insights - Yunnan Province has increased the coal power capacity price recovery of fixed costs to 100%, which is expected to stabilize revenue for coal power companies and enhance their role in supporting renewable energy integration [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant drop in natural gas prices, with Northeast Asia LNG prices reaching a 20-month low, driven by strong supply and mild weather conditions [12][26]. - The investment analysis suggests a diversified revenue model for coal power companies, transitioning from reliance on electricity sales to a combination of electricity revenue, capacity income, and ancillary service income [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Power: Yunnan Increases Coal Power Capacity Price - Yunnan has announced a new mechanism for coal power capacity pricing, allowing for full recovery of fixed costs starting in 2026, set at 330 RMB per kilowatt per year [7][8]. - The province's total installed power capacity exceeds 168 million kilowatts, with over 90% from green energy sources, necessitating coal power for peak load support [8]. 2. Gas: Global Gas Price Trends - As of December 12, the Henry Hub spot price in the U.S. was $4.07/mmBtu, down 21.56% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia LNG prices fell to $10/mmBtu, a decrease of 6.19% [12][13]. - The report notes that the overall supply of natural gas remains robust, contributing to lower prices in Northeast Asia [26][28]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The power and power equipment sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, while the public utility, gas, and environmental protection sectors lagged behind [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government meetings and policy announcements emphasize the importance of a clean, low-carbon energy system and the development of a new energy system by 2030 [40][43]. - The report includes updates on major companies, such as China Resources Power and Longyuan Power, highlighting their financial activities and operational performance [44][46].