Core Viewpoint - Jinlong Automobile (600686) reported a decline in bus sales for April 2025, indicating potential challenges in the market despite an overall year-to-date increase in sales [1] Sales Performance - The bus sales volume in April 2025 was 3,611 units, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3.91% [1] - Cumulative bus sales for 2025 reached 14,655 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.46% [1] - Large bus sales amounted to 1,421 units, down 19.26% year-on-year [1] - Medium bus sales totaled 598 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.17% [1] - Light bus sales increased to 1,592 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 24.76% [1] Production Performance - The bus production volume in April 2025 was 4,361 units, which is a year-on-year decrease of 5.79% [1] - Cumulative bus production for 2025 reached 15,775 units, indicating a year-on-year increase of 9.38% [1]

头豹市场研读 | 2025/03 观点摘要 近年来，中国客车品牌在海外市场快速扩张，展现出强劲的增长态势。2024年，中国10座及 以上客车出口量同比增长16%，多个品牌在东南亚、中东、非洲等市场占据重要份额。随着全球新能 源化浪潮兴起，中国客车企业凭借技术和成本优势，在国际市场竞争中逐步确立领先地位。然而， 面对复杂的国际形势和各国政策法规要求，中国客车出海之路仍面临诸多挑战。如何在全球化进程 中实现可持续发展？是技术创新还是本土化战略更为关键？ 本报告主要聚焦中国客车品牌的海外市场发展现状，深入分析全球客车市场格局，探讨了中 国客车企业的国际化路径与竞争策略，并对新能源客车出海机遇与挑战进行了系统研究，同时对未 来发展趋势做出预判。 头豹市场研究| 2025/03 www.leadleo.com 2025年中国客车海外市场发展报告： 全球化征程——中国客车品牌出海新 格局与战略机遇 2025 Bus Overseas Market Development Report 2025年中国バス海外市場発展レポー （精华版） 报告标签：一带一路、新兴市场、新能源客车、品牌输出 撰写人：马天奇 报告提供的任何内容（ ...

头豹市场研究| 2025/03 www.leadleo.com 2025年中国客车海外市场发展报告： 全球化征程——中国客车品牌出海新 格局与战略机遇 2025 Bus Overseas Market Development Report 2025年中国バス海外市場発展レポー （精华版） 报告标签：一带一路、新兴市场、新能源客车、品牌输出 撰写人：马天奇 报告提供的任何内容（包括但不限于数据、文字、图表、图像等）均系头豹研究院独有的高度机密性文件 （在报告中另行标明出处者除外）。 ，任何人不得以任何方式擅自复制、再 造、传播、出版、引用、改编、汇编本报告内容，若有违反上述约定的行为发生，头豹研究院保留采取法 律措施、追究相关人员责任的权利。头豹研究院开展的所有商业活动均使用"头豹研究院"或"头豹"的商号、 商标，头豹研究院无任何前述名称之外的其他分支机构，也未授权或聘用其他任何第三方代表头豹研究院 开展商业活动。 头豹市场研读 | 2025/03 观点摘要 近年来，中国客车品牌在海外市场快速扩张，展现出强劲的增长态势。2024年，中国10座及 以上客车出口量同比增长16%，多个品牌在东南亚、中东、非洲等市场占 ...

Group 1: Overall Performance - The overall performance for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with resilience in both domestic and foreign demand[1] - The retail sales of passenger vehicles in Q4 2024 increased by 17% year-on-year, supported by trade-in policies and government subsidies[26] - In Q1 2025, retail, export, and wholesale figures all showed positive year-on-year growth of 3%, 6%, and 13% respectively[26] Group 2: Automotive Sector Insights - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from a potential easing of the US-China trade war, which may alleviate previous concerns regarding external demand[2] - The AI and robotics sectors are prioritized for investment, with companies like Xpeng Motors and Horizon Robotics highlighted as key players[2] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in retail sales showed a slight decline, indicating a need for strategic adjustments[27] Group 3: Company-Specific Performance - Xpeng Motors reported a 23% increase in revenue for Q4 2024, with monthly deliveries exceeding 30,000 units despite seasonal disruptions[5] - BYD's revenue grew by 53% in Q4 2024, with a profit increase of 73%, driven by strong export performance[5] - The gross profit margin for the automotive sector showed mixed results, with some companies experiencing margin pressure due to increased competition and pricing strategies[3] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include the potential escalation of the trade war, lower-than-expected global economic recovery, and uncertainties in geopolitical conditions[2] - The automotive industry faces challenges from rising raw material costs and the need for continuous innovation in L3-L4 autonomous driving technologies[2]

Macro Strategy - The external demand shock on the economy is beginning to manifest, with April manufacturing PMI data showing a month-on-month decline of 1.5 points, significantly exceeding the historical average decline of 0.7 points [1] - The decline in April's manufacturing PMI is the second largest for the same period in the past decade, only behind the declines in 2022 and 2023 [1] Fixed Income - In April 2025, MLF exceeded 500 billion yuan, indicating a loose liquidity stance from the central bank, with monetary policy working in coordination with fiscal policy [3] - The issuance pace of bonds may become a key factor in assessing the monetary easing window, with expectations for a potential reserve requirement ratio cut [3] - The week of April 21-25 saw the issuance of 16 green bonds totaling approximately 36.2 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous week [4] - The same week also saw the issuance of 5 secondary capital bonds totaling 59 billion yuan, with a total trading volume of approximately 136.2 billion yuan [5] Company Analysis Foton Motor (600166) - The Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with a forecasted net profit of 16.66 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a recovery in the heavy truck industry [10] - The company is rated "Buy" due to its low valuation and the industry's potential for recovery [10] KQ Group (873665) - The company reported a revenue of 3.37 billion yuan for 2024, down 3.69% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.62 billion yuan, down 17.50% [11] - The decline in performance is attributed to intensified competition in the photovoltaic industry [11] Shenghui Integration (603163) - The company experienced a significant revenue increase in Q1, supported by a robust order backlog [12] Ganfeng Lithium (002460) - The company adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 8.1 billion yuan, 15.8 billion yuan, and 24.5 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 139%, 95%, and 55% [14] Anker Innovations (300866) - The company maintains a positive outlook with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 24.9 billion yuan and 32.1 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a growth potential despite tariff pressures [15] YTO Group (601038) - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 10.2 billion yuan, 11.2 billion yuan, and 12.5 billion yuan, reflecting a "Buy" rating [16] Silver Capital (603277) - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted to 6.45 billion yuan and 7.70 billion yuan, with a new forecast for 2027 at 8.78 billion yuan [16] Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388.HK) - The exchange reported a record high quarterly performance with revenues of 6.9 billion HKD, a 32% year-on-year increase, driven by improved investment sentiment and increased trading activity [18] Zhongxin Bo (688408) - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 8.3 billion yuan, 10.6 billion yuan, and 12.8 billion yuan, reflecting a growth trajectory [19] Chongqing Beer (600132) - The company forecasts a net profit of 12.66 billion yuan for 2025, with a stable outlook for sales recovery [20] Top Group (601689) - The company reported a Q1 revenue of 57.68 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.65 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline but maintaining a positive long-term outlook [31]

过去一年多来，汽车行业经历了不平凡的一年，电动化、智能化趋势进一步席卷行业，"价格战"一词也频频见诸报端，给产业链不同企业带来不一样的助 力或冲击。 整车企业整体业绩稳健新能源汽车龙头继续领跑 从2024年年报和2025年一季度披露的数据来看，过去的一年多来，整车乘用车企业整体业绩表现稳定。 根据申万行业分类，电动乘用车企业继续保持增长势头，其中行业龙头比亚迪（002594）继续一骑绝尘，持续快速增长。 数据显示，比亚迪2024年营收同比增长29.02%，归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比增长34.00%。比亚迪在2024年年报中提及，根据中汽协数据，2024年 集团新能源汽车销量在高基数的基础上同比增长超40%，市占率进一步提升至33.2%，同比增长1.3个百分点。2024年，集团蝉联中国汽车市场车企销量冠 军、中国汽车市场品牌销量冠军和全球新能源汽车市场销量冠军。 2025年一季度，比亚迪营收和归属于上市公司股东的净利润进一步快速增长，增速分别达到36.35%和100.38%。 其他电动乘用车企业中，赛力斯（601127）2024年营收实现三位数增长，并扭亏为盈，2025年一季度归属于上市公司股东的净利润继续 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 为进一步加强与投资者的互动交流，厦门金龙汽车集团股份有限公司（以下 简称公司）将参加由厦门证监局、厦门上市公司协会与深圳市全景网络有限公司 联合举办的"厦门辖区上市公司 2024 年年报业绩说明会暨投资者网上集体接待 日活动"，现将相关事项公告如下： 证券代码：600686 证券简称：金龙汽车 编号：2025-032 厦门金龙汽车集团股份有限公司 关于参加厦门辖区上市公司 2024 年投资者 网上集体接待日活动的公告 本次活动将采用网络远程的方式举行，投资者可登录"全景路演"网站 （http://rs.p5w.net），或关注微信公众号：全景财经，或下载全景路演 APP, 参与本次互动交流，活动时间为 2025 年 5 月 15 日（周四）15:40-17:00。届时 公司高管将在线就公司 2024 年度业绩、公司治理、发展战略、经营状况、融资 计划、股权激励和可持续发展等投资者关心的问题，与投资者进行沟通与交流， 欢迎广大投资者踊跃参与！ 特此公告。 厦门金龙汽车集团股份有限公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jinlong Automobile (600686) [1] Core Views - The integration of the three subsidiaries is complete, leading to an upward shift in the profit center [7] - The company is expected to benefit from strong growth in both domestic and international sales, with a projected revenue increase to 25 billion yuan in 2025 [7] - The management change is anticipated to enhance internal efficiency and accelerate profit release [7] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 19.4 billion yuan - 2024A: 22.966 billion yuan (YoY +18.38%) - 2025E: 24.987 billion yuan (YoY +8.80%) - 2026E: 26.757 billion yuan (YoY +7.09%) - 2027E: 28.497 billion yuan (YoY +6.50%) [1][8] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 751 million yuan - 2024A: 1.5774 billion yuan (YoY +110.05%) - 2025E: 4.4424 billion yuan (YoY +181.62%) - 2026E: 6.4494 billion yuan (YoY +45.18%) - 2027E: 8.2807 billion yuan (YoY +28.40%) [1][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.10 yuan - 2024A: 0.22 yuan - 2025E: 0.62 yuan - 2026E: 0.90 yuan - 2027E: 1.15 yuan [1][8] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2024A: 59.91 - 2025E: 21.27 - 2026E: 14.65 - 2027E: 11.41 [1][8] Market Data Summary - **Closing Price**: 12.54 yuan - **Market Capitalization**: 8,991.77 million yuan - **Price-to-Book Ratio**: 2.86 [5][6] Operational Highlights - The company achieved a sales volume of 50,000 vehicles in 2024, a 19% increase YoY, with an average selling price (ASP) of 460,000 yuan [7] - Export sales reached 23,000 vehicles in 2024, a 20% increase YoY, with 4,000 vehicles being new energy exports [7] Profitability Metrics - **Gross Margin**: - 2024: 10.2% (YoY +0.5 percentage points) - 2025 Q1: 11.3% [7] - **Net Profit Margin**: - 2024: 0.69% - 2025E: 1.78% [8] Future Outlook - The report projects continued revenue growth with expected revenues of 26.8 billion yuan in 2026 and 28.5 billion yuan in 2027, alongside significant profit increases [7]

| 投资要点 | | --- | 公司公告： 公司发布2024年年报及2025年一季报，业绩符合我们预期。2024年公司营业收入为230亿元， 同比+18.4%，归母净利润1.6亿元，同比+110%，扣非归母净利润-1.6亿元，亏损同比收窄。 2025Q1营业收入49亿元，同环比+23.7%/-42.5%，归母净利润为0.5亿元，同环比+165%/-43%， 扣非归母净利润为-0.1亿元，同环比亏损收窄。 出口外销共同驱动，2024年/25Q1收入高增： n 2024年公司销量5万辆，同比+19%，单车ASP 46万元，同比-0.6%。分车型长度来看，2024年 大中客占总销量比重58%，同比+4pct。分区域来看，根据中客网数据，2024年公司出口销量 2.3万辆，同比+20%，新能源出口销量0.4万辆，同比+10%。25Q1公司营业收入同比+24%，增 速超过2024年全年，总销量1.1万辆，同环比+12%/-35%，其中出口销量0.7万辆，同环比 +101%/-10%，新能源出口销量0.1万辆，同环比+211%/-42%。我们认为，本轮客车周期向上的 核心催化来自于出口客车的销量高增，公司作为国内客车龙 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jinlong Automobile [1] Core Views - The integration of the three subsidiaries is complete, leading to an upward shift in the profit center [7] - The company is expected to benefit from strong domestic and international sales growth, with revenue projections for 2025 raised to 25 billion yuan [7] - The new management is anticipated to enhance internal efficiency, accelerating profit release [7] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: 19.4 billion yuan - 2024A: 22.966 billion yuan (YoY +18.38%) - 2025E: 24.987 billion yuan (YoY +8.80%) - 2026E: 26.757 billion yuan (YoY +7.09%) - 2027E: 28.497 billion yuan (YoY +6.50%) [1][8] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: 751 million yuan - 2024A: 1.5774 billion yuan (YoY +110.05%) - 2025E: 4.4424 billion yuan (YoY +181.62%) - 2026E: 6.4494 billion yuan (YoY +45.18%) - 2027E: 8.2807 billion yuan (YoY +28.40%) [1][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.10 yuan - 2024A: 0.22 yuan - 2025E: 0.62 yuan - 2026E: 0.90 yuan - 2027E: 1.15 yuan [1][8] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratios**: - 2024A: 59.91 - 2025E: 21.27 - 2026E: 14.65 - 2027E: 11.41 [1][8] Market Data Summary - **Closing Price**: 12.54 yuan - **Market Capitalization**: 8,991.77 million yuan - **Price-to-Book Ratio**: 2.86 [5][6] Operational Highlights - The company achieved a sales volume of 50,000 vehicles in 2024, a YoY increase of 19% [7] - Export sales reached 23,000 vehicles in 2024, a YoY increase of 20% [7] - The gross margin improved to 10.2% in 2024, with a further increase to 11.3% in Q1 2025 [7]