盈利预测与估值 考虑到25H2 上市的P7 和X9 增程版产品力强，公司智能化发展顺利，未来公司车型销量提升的可预见 性强，我们上调26-27 年收入预测，预计公司25-27 年收入856/1276/1539 亿元（与此前相比持 在M03、P7+等热销下规模效应增强，25Q2 公司毛利率17.3%，同环比+3.3/1.7pct，其中汽车毛利率 14.3%，同环比+7.9/+3.8pct，连续八个季度改善，我们认为原因或是：①规模效应提升（Q2 交付 10.3w，同环比+242/10%）；②持续降本；③车型结构改善（Q2 G6 和G7 销量占比由Q1的14%提至 25%）。单车收入/毛利分别为16.4/2.3 万元，同比-28%/+63%，环比+7%/+47%。费用管控成效显著， 25Q2 SG&A/研发费用率12%/12%，同比-7/-6pct，环比-0.5/-0.5pct。展望25H2，我们认为随G7、P7 等 车型放量，毛利率有望继续提升。公司预计25Q3 交付11.3~11.8 万辆，营收196~210 亿元。 M03 和P7+销量基础稳固，关注全新P7 同步搭载VLA 上市 25H1 公司累计交付19 ...

机构：平安证券 研究员：王跟海/王德安 受益于汽车毛利率改善，二季度亏损继续收窄。二季度公司整体毛利率达到17.3%，同环比改善显著， 这主要是由于汽车业务毛利率的改善所致。 事项： 公司发布2025 年二季度业绩报告。2025 年二季度，公司实现营业收入182.7亿元，同环比分别增加 125.3%/15.6%，实现归母净利润-4.8 亿元，同环比分别收窄62.8%/28.1%。 平安观点： 二季度单车ASP 环比提升，汽车业务毛利率改善超预期。二季度公司交付量达到103181 台，同环比分 别增长241.6%/9.8%。汽车业务营收达到168.8 亿元，同环比分别增长147.6%/17.5%。单车ASP 为16.4 万 元，环比增加1.1 万元，ASP 改善预计主要是由于低价车型M03 交付量占比下降以及高价车型G6、 G9、X9 交付量提升所致。毛利率方面，公司二季度汽车业务毛利率达到14.3%，环比增加接近4 个百 分点，汽车业务毛利率改善幅度略超预期。公司给出的三季度交付指引为11.3~11.8 万台，对应营收指 引为196 亿~210 亿元，7 月小鹏交付量达到3.7 万台，8、9月份平均月交付量预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the career journey of Wang Fengying, the president of Xpeng Motors, highlighting her significant contributions to the automotive industry and her leadership style, which combines strong decision-making with a focus on quality and customer satisfaction [4][5]. Group 1: Wang Fengying's Career at Great Wall Motors - Wang Fengying joined Great Wall Motors at the age of 21 and quickly rose to the position of assistant manager within two months [6]. - She was a long-distance runner, which contributed to her competitive spirit and strong character, leading her to adopt a decisive management style [6]. - During her 31 years at Great Wall, she focused primarily on sales and strategy, significantly impacting the company's growth [7][9]. - Wang played a crucial role in the development and marketing of various vehicle models, including the successful launch of the Deer pickup truck, which became a national sales champion [11][23]. - She was promoted to sales manager in 1993 and later became the president of Great Wall Motors, making her the only female president in the Chinese automotive industry at that time [12][14]. Group 2: Strategic Decisions and Innovations - Wang Fengying emphasized the importance of quality and customer-centric approaches, which were pivotal in Great Wall's success [5][20]. - She led the company to focus on SUVs, which became a defining strategy after the failure of the first sedan model, "Spirit" [17][18]. - Under her leadership, Great Wall Motors achieved significant milestones, including a record net profit margin that surpassed Ferrari's [41]. - Wang's marketing strategies included adapting sales models from the home appliance industry, which helped reduce financial risks [21]. Group 3: Transition to Xpeng Motors - In January 2023, Wang Fengying joined Xpeng Motors as president, setting ambitious sales targets for the company [53][54]. - She restructured the sales organization to improve efficiency and responsiveness, increasing the number of sales districts from four to 25 [78]. - Wang's leadership style at Xpeng is characterized by decisiveness and a focus on cost control, which has led to significant improvements in operational efficiency [86][90]. - Under her guidance, Xpeng Motors achieved a remarkable sales growth of 34.2% in 2024, with cumulative sales reaching 190,068 vehicles [67].

Core Viewpoint - The sales growth of Leap Motor's B01 model has been significant, driven by high consumer interest and favorable comparisons with competitors like Xiaopeng's MONA M03 [1][2] Sales Performance - The B01 model has shown promising sales since its launch at the end of July, with the store reporting 8 new locked orders and nearly 20 small deposits, accounting for 25% of the store's sales [2] - The sales performance of the B01 has remained stable, with no significant changes in order volume compared to before its launch [9][12] Customer Demographics - The primary buyers of the B01 are young individuals who appreciate aesthetics and are open to new experiences, often comparing it directly with the Xiaopeng M03 [4][7] - Customers purchasing the BYD Qin L EV are predominantly from the 80s generation, focusing on family needs and vehicle replacement [11] Competitive Landscape - The B01 faces competition from established models like the Xiaopeng M03 and BYD Qin L, with customers often prioritizing design and advanced driving capabilities [7][18] - The store's sales data indicates that the M03 maintains a significant market share, accounting for 50% of sales, while the B01's impact on the market remains limited due to its recent launch [6][10] Marketing Strategies - To attract female customers, the store has displayed the B01 in pink, aiming to enhance its appeal among young women [4] - Xiaopeng has initiated promotional activities, including additional benefits for customers, which may influence buyer decisions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent launch of the Leapmotor B01, highlighting its sales performance, customer demographics, and competitive positioning in the electric vehicle market. Sales Performance - The sales of the B01 have seen an increase in foot traffic, with an estimated 35% of customers visiting the store specifically for this model, leading to 8 units sold, predominantly the mid-tier 650 Joy version [2][19]. - The most popular colors for the B01 are Starry Silver and Dawn Purple, accounting for 6 out of the 8 sold units [3][19]. Customer Demographics - Customers interested in the B01 are primarily under 35 years old, with over 60% being female. Male customers tend to be married and focus on practicality, while female customers are often single and prioritize aesthetics and convenience [4][6]. Competitive Analysis - The B01 is frequently compared to models from Xiaopeng, BYD, and other competitors, with 60% of customers having considered Xiaopeng and BYD vehicles [9][10]. - Customers have high expectations for the B01's pricing and intelligent driving capabilities, which has led to some disappointment regarding its performance compared to competitors [10][23]. Pricing and Promotions - The initial deposit for the B01 was 99 yuan, which could be deducted from the final payment, but this promotion has ended. Currently, customers receive a delivery package with plush toys and mats instead of cash discounts [14][19]. - The manufacturer offers a financing option with a 5,000 yuan interest subsidy, allowing customers to borrow up to 83,000 yuan with a two-year interest-free period, which is the most popular choice among buyers [17]. Configuration Preferences - The most popular configuration is the mid-tier 650 Joy version, making up 50% of orders, while the lower-tier 430 Comfort version has seen little interest due to its limited range [19]. - The least popular color is Morgan Pink, which, despite being favored by female customers, is perceived as impractical for purchase [21]. Customer Feedback - Customers have expressed concerns about the B01's intelligent driving capabilities, which they feel do not meet the high expectations set by the manufacturer’s marketing [23]. - There are also concerns regarding the variability of battery cell suppliers, leading to uncertainty about the product's reliability [23]. Maintenance Costs - Regular maintenance costs for the B01 are approximately 150 yuan per service, with intervals set at one year or 10,000 kilometers [24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [9][55]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in the automotive sales structure, with the proportion of vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan declining to 21% in the first five months of 2025, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [9][10]. - The report suggests that while competition has driven down vehicle prices, consumer preferences are shifting towards larger vehicles, indicating a trend of "cars becoming larger but cheaper" [10][9]. - The report anticipates a strong market performance in the second half of the year, despite the traditional off-season in July and August, due to factors such as reduced price war risks and inventory adjustments [10][9]. Summary by Sections Sales by Price Range - The report provides detailed analysis of sales trends across various price ranges, indicating that: - The 0-10 million yuan segment saw a slight increase in market share to 32.7%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The 10-15 million yuan segment increased to 33.8%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by models like Qin L and Galaxy E5 [10]. - The 15-20 million yuan segment decreased to 12.2%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by price adjustments of models like Sea Leopard and Accord [10]. - The 20-25 million yuan segment increased to 9.1%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, supported by consumption upgrades and electric vehicle growth [10]. - The 30-40 million yuan segment saw a decline to 6%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Sales by Vehicle Class - The report categorizes vehicle sales by class, revealing: - In the 0-20 million yuan category, A-class vehicles' market share decreased to 38%, while B-class vehicles increased to 37% [10]. - In the 20 million yuan and above category, C-class vehicles gained market share to 48.9%, while A and B-class vehicles saw declines [10]. - The overall market dynamics indicate a shift towards larger vehicle classes, with a notable increase in the C-class segment [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Jianghuai Automobile, which are expected to perform well in terms of volume and profitability [9]. - It suggests monitoring new models from companies like Li Auto and Xiaomi, as well as traditional automakers like SAIC and Great Wall, which are anticipated to reach profitability this year [9].

Core Viewpoint - The pure electric vehicle (EV) market has regained growth momentum, with significant sales increases and a shift in market dynamics, particularly driven by new entrants like Xiaomi and established players enhancing their offerings [10][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The pure electric vehicle segment is experiencing a resurgence, with sales in the first half of 2025 reaching 4.415 million units, a year-on-year increase of 46.2%, surpassing the growth rates of plug-in hybrid vehicles [8][10]. - Xiaomi's SU7 and YU7 models have demonstrated remarkable market appeal, with YU7 selling 200,000 units in just three minutes, marking a significant shift in market sentiment [6][5]. - The previous dominance of plug-in hybrids, which saw growth rates of 140% to 84.5% from 2021 to 2024, has been overturned, with pure electric vehicles now leading the growth narrative [8][9]. Group 2: Collaborative Efforts - The recovery of the pure electric market is attributed to the collaborative efforts of new car manufacturers, traditional automakers, and joint ventures, creating a comprehensive competitive landscape [11][19]. - New entrants like Xiaopeng Motors are leveraging technological advancements to capture niche markets, with models like the P7+ achieving a range of 700 kilometers and rapid charging capabilities [12]. - Traditional automakers, such as BYD and GAC Aion, are utilizing established supply chains to stabilize growth in the pure electric segment, with BYD's Dolphin model seeing significant sales increases [15][16]. Group 3: Battery Supply Chain - The surge in sales of pure electric vehicles has positively impacted battery manufacturers, with leading companies forming strategic partnerships with popular models to capitalize on market growth [21][22]. - CATL has become a key supplier for Xiaomi, with the latter becoming CATL's largest customer in April 2025, significantly boosting CATL's battery installation volumes [23]. - Firms like Fudi Battery are expanding their market share through both internal supply and external partnerships, with models like BYD's Dolphin and Xiaomi's vehicles driving demand [26][27]. Group 4: Market Positioning - The competitive landscape is further enhanced by joint ventures adapting to consumer preferences and technological trends, with brands like Nissan and Volkswagen successfully re-entering the pure electric market [17][18]. - The overall market for pure electric vehicles is now characterized by a diverse range of participants, which has amplified total market volume and consumer choice [19].

Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on companies with a low-cost strategy and strong product creation capabilities, particularly BYD, Xiaopeng Motors, and Leap Motor, which are expected to exceed performance expectations in 2025 [6]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is characterized by a competition focused on creating blockbuster products, influenced by market competition, brand strength, and cost-performance ratio [2][3][4]. - The current market demands products with high cost-performance, as companies engage in price wars, making consumers more sensitive to pricing [4][5]. - Companies that can effectively reduce costs while maintaining product quality are more likely to succeed in the current competitive landscape [5][6]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Competition in the Automotive Industry - The automotive market is driven by the creation of blockbuster products, leading to cyclical sales fluctuations that impact stock prices [2][15]. - The competition is influenced by three main factors: market competition structure, brand strength, and cost-performance ratio [2][15]. - The industry is transitioning towards a technology-oriented model, with increasing importance placed on software and intelligent driving technologies [17]. Section 2: Product Creation Strategies - Three strategies for creating blockbuster products are identified: emerging market strategy, cost-performance strategy, and brand strength strategy [3][4]. - Companies like Li Auto focus on emerging markets, while others like Geely and Xiaopeng adopt cost-performance strategies to capture market share [3][4]. Section 3: Market Dynamics and Future Trends - The report emphasizes that the market is currently in a price war, with companies needing to enhance their product creation capabilities under cost-performance pressures [4][5]. - Intelligent driving is seen as an inevitable trend, with expectations for consumer recognition to increase in the future [4]. Section 4: Recommended Companies - Companies such as BYD, Geely, Xiaopeng, and Leap Motor are highlighted for their strong product creation capabilities and low-cost strategies, making them attractive investment opportunities [6][4]. - BYD is noted for its technological advancements and cost advantages, while Geely is recognized for its recent successful product launches [6][4].

Group 1: Overall Performance - The overall performance for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with resilience in both domestic and foreign demand[1] - The retail sales of passenger vehicles in Q4 2024 increased by 17% year-on-year, supported by trade-in policies and government subsidies[26] - In Q1 2025, retail, export, and wholesale figures all showed positive year-on-year growth of 3%, 6%, and 13% respectively[26] Group 2: Automotive Sector Insights - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from a potential easing of the US-China trade war, which may alleviate previous concerns regarding external demand[2] - The AI and robotics sectors are prioritized for investment, with companies like Xpeng Motors and Horizon Robotics highlighted as key players[2] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in retail sales showed a slight decline, indicating a need for strategic adjustments[27] Group 3: Company-Specific Performance - Xpeng Motors reported a 23% increase in revenue for Q4 2024, with monthly deliveries exceeding 30,000 units despite seasonal disruptions[5] - BYD's revenue grew by 53% in Q4 2024, with a profit increase of 73%, driven by strong export performance[5] - The gross profit margin for the automotive sector showed mixed results, with some companies experiencing margin pressure due to increased competition and pricing strategies[3] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include the potential escalation of the trade war, lower-than-expected global economic recovery, and uncertainties in geopolitical conditions[2] - The automotive industry faces challenges from rising raw material costs and the need for continuous innovation in L3-L4 autonomous driving technologies[2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resurgence of automobile consumption in Shanghai and other cities during the May Day holiday, driven by promotional activities and government subsidies, indicating a potential recovery in the automotive market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Shanghai Auto Show and Consumer Trends - The Shanghai Auto Show attracted over a million visitors, becoming a significant driver of automotive consumption during the holiday [1][3]. - Various car manufacturers implemented substantial discounts and promotional offers, with some models seeing price reductions exceeding 10,000 yuan [4]. - The combination of the auto show and the "Five-Five Shopping Festival" led to new subsidy policies in several districts, further stimulating consumer interest [4]. Group 2: Sales Data and Market Performance - In March, Shanghai's automotive market showed a notable recovery, with new car sales increasing by 9.8% month-on-month and 64.8% year-on-year, outperforming national averages [5]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Shanghai reached approximately 58.7%, with sales growth of 59.5% month-on-month [5]. - The expansion of the trade-in subsidy policy to include out-of-province vehicles is expected to enhance market confidence and stimulate further sales [5]. Group 3: Regional Insights - In Xuancheng, the popularity of domestic brands among young consumers is evident, with a focus on aesthetics and technology in vehicle selection [6][7]. - Xuancheng's automotive parts industry has become a crucial pillar of its economy, with over 700 automotive parts companies generating an annual output value exceeding 85 billion yuan [10]. - In Guangzhou, the automotive manufacturing sector saw a 17.7% increase in investment, indicating a positive trend in the automotive market despite a decline in value added [13]. Group 4: Promotional Activities and Consumer Engagement - Various cities, including Guangzhou and Baoding, hosted local auto shows during the holiday, with significant participation from major automotive brands offering combined subsidies [12][15]. - In Baoding, the number of test drives increased by 30% to 40% during the holiday, reflecting heightened consumer interest and engagement [15]. - Traditional sales models adapted by setting up temporary showrooms in shopping centers, showcasing popular models and offering discounts [17].