Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while supply-side constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3][5] - The industry has been experiencing prolonged micro-profit conditions, and market-driven supply adjustments have begun to emerge [3][5] - The report highlights that approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating ongoing supply-side challenges [5] Summary by Sections Steel - Steel prices have decreased week-on-week, with the Shanghai rebar price dropping by 20 CNY/ton to 3240 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.61% [8] - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.0174 million tons, down 0.96% week-on-week but up 28.96% year-on-year [21] - The total inventory of steel reached 12.7851 million tons, increasing by 1.70% week-on-week, maintaining a low level [5][12] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills rose to 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week [28] - The average gross profit for rebar was 196.9 CNY/ton, down 11.7 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil profit increased by 2.3 CNY/ton to 46.9 CNY/ton [39] Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased, with the price for PB powder (61.5% iron content) at 792 CNY/ton, down 9 CNY/ton [46] - The port inventory of iron ore rose to 17.022 million tons, an increase of 1.53% [50] - The total shipment volume of major iron ore producers increased, with Brazil's shipment at 4.852 million tons, up 1.06% week-on-week [51] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [5] - It also highlights the potential of upstream resource companies benefiting from demand recovery trends, recommending Hebei Resources and Erdos among others [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that raw material inventory replenishment is nearly complete, with a focus on changes in real estate policies. It notes that steel production and apparent consumption are stabilizing, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in demand [8][32]. - The report anticipates that steel mill profits may continue to recover due to improved margins from raw material cost reductions and potential easing of real estate regulations [8][32]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of January 30, 2026, steel prices have decreased, with rebar priced at 3,240 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY from the previous week. Hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices also saw declines [15][16]. - The total production of major steel products reached 8.23 million tons, with an increase in inventory levels [8][32]. Profitability Analysis - The report estimates weekly gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel to have changed by -17 CNY/ton, +3 CNY/ton, and -19 CNY/ton respectively, indicating fluctuations in profitability [8][32]. Production and Inventory - The total inventory of major steel products rose by 222,100 tons to 8.89 million tons, with a slight decrease in steel mill inventory [8][32]. - Apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 1.764 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 91,200 tons week-on-week [8][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their market position: 1. Leading companies in the general steel sector: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel 2. Specialty steel sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Fangda Special Steel 3. Pipe manufacturers: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Changbao Co. 4. Raw material companies with clear growth: Dazhong Mining (iron ore + lithium) and Fangda Carbon [8][32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][10] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 835-998 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 236.90%-302.67%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be 705-868 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 299.87%-392.32% [1][5] - The significant growth in performance is attributed to increased production and sales volume, along with a decline in raw material costs. The company has effectively managed costs and improved efficiency through refined management practices and the construction of two 65MW ultra-high temperature subcritical power generation projects [1][2] - The company has also capitalized on market opportunities by optimizing its product mix to increase the sales volume of high-margin products, which has positively impacted its performance [1] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit of 918 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 270.2%. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.40 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 [4][9] - The forecast for 2026 and 2027 shows EPS of 0.46 yuan and 0.52 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14 and 12 [4][9] Financial Data - The company's revenue for 2025 is estimated at 20.458 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 5.1% from the previous year. The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 248 million yuan, a decrease of 64% [4][9] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve to 8.8% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 4.6% [9] Market Position - The steel industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-end, green, and intelligent production, with a focus on supply-side reforms. The company is well-positioned to benefit from these trends due to its strong internal incentives and effective cost control [2][4]

Market Overview - The special steel sector experienced a decline of 0.17% on January 30, with Fushun Special Steel leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - CITIC Special Steel (000708) closed at 16.42, up 3.27% with a trading volume of 326,800 shares and a turnover of 531 million yuan [1] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 6.48, up 1.09% with a trading volume of 760,700 shares and a turnover of 494 million yuan [1] - Fushun Special Steel (6652009) closed at 6.54, down 4.11% with a trading volume of 1,332,900 shares and a turnover of 867.1 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net outflow of 196 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 159 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks includes: - Fangda Special Steel had a net inflow of 19.57 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - CITIC Special Steel experienced a net outflow of 21.09 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Shagang Co. (002075) had a net outflow of 5.42 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - The company announced an expected increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 835-998 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 236.90%-302.67% [1] - The growth in performance is attributed to increased production and sales volume, along with a decrease in raw material costs, aligning with expectations [1] - The company is implementing refined management practices and cost reduction strategies, including the construction of two 65MW ultra-high temperature subcritical power generation projects to enhance energy efficiency [1] Group 2 - The steel industry is experiencing weak downstream demand and fluctuating steel prices, but upstream raw material prices have significantly decreased, leading to a recovery in steel profits [2] - The company is focusing on internal incentives and effective cost control, with a strong likelihood of asset injections from the group, enhancing growth prospects [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 0.40, 0.46, and 0.52 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 14, and 12 times, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

公司点评 | 方大特钢 产销量增长+原燃料成本下降，业绩高增符合预期 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 30 日 方大特钢（600507.SH）2025 业绩预增点评 事件：公司公告业绩预增，预计 2025 年归母净利润为 8.35-9.98 亿元，同 比增长 236.90%-302.67%；扣非后归母净利润为 7.05-8.68 亿元，同比增长 299.87%-392.32%。 产销量增长+原料成本下降，业绩高增符合预期。我们按照业绩预告中值可 以测算出 2025Q4 单季度归母净利润为 1.28 亿元，同比增长 116.10%；扣 非后归母净利润为 1.32 亿元，同比增长 471.74%，根据业绩预增公告内容： 1）业绩增长方面，2025 年钢铁行业下游需求仍偏弱运行，钢材价格呈震荡 下行态势，但同期上游主要原燃料价格也显著回落，钢材利润得到一定修复。 在生产端，公司持续推进精细化管理，大力降本增效；建设两套 65MW 超高 温亚临界发电项目，提升能源利用效率。在销售端，公司抢抓市场机遇，通 过优化品种结构，提高高效益产品产销量，有力推动了业绩增长。 2）非经营性损益方面，2025 年公司非经常性损 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report On January 29, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures rebounded significantly, recovering the losses of the previous three trading days. Considering the news factors leading to the recent rebound in steel prices and the supply-demand balance in the fundamentals, it is expected that the market will likely fluctuate with an upward trend in the future. Investors can wait for dips to arrange medium- and long-term hedging or investment positions [6][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: On January 29, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2605 rebounded significantly, recovering the losses of the previous three trading days. The prices of some rebar and hot-rolled coil in the spot market increased [5][6][8]. - **Technical Indicators**: The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2605 contracts both showed golden crosses, and the daily MACD green bars both narrowed [8]. - **News Factors**: The regulatory policy tightening sent a cooling signal to the irrational rise of some metal prices, but failed to stop the continuous increase of some metal prices. The black metal commodity prices generally followed the upward trend of the metal sector. The international energy prices rose due to the tense situation in the Middle East, causing coal and coke prices to stop falling and rebound [9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of the five major steel products has been slightly increasing for five consecutive weeks, while the demand has been declining for two consecutive weeks with a narrowing decline. The total inventory has been accumulating for two consecutive weeks due to the seasonal decline in demand. The spot price of iron ore has rebounded after a significant decline, and the first round of price increase for coke is about to be implemented [10]. - **Raw Materials**: The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased by 13.3% compared with the previous four weeks, but the arrival volume increased by 3.2%. The port iron ore inventory reached a record high of 1.67 billion tons. The independent coking enterprises slightly reduced production after increasing production following steel enterprises. The supply of imported coal has rebounded again, but the supply and demand are still relatively balanced considering the cold weather in most parts of the north [11]. 3.2 Industry News - **National Policies**: The National Development and Reform Commission will strengthen the comprehensive coordination of coal, electricity, oil, and gas during the Spring Festival travel rush. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to promote the photovoltaic industry to return to a healthy and rational development path [12]. - **Enterprise Performance**: Many steel and coal enterprises released performance forecasts. Some enterprises such as Youfa Group, Sansteel Minguang, Fangda Special Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel achieved profit growth or turnaround, while some enterprises such as Lanhua Kechuang, Hengyuan Coal and Electricity, and Liaoning Energy suffered losses [13][14]. - **Industry Developments**: Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Group's annual coal production capacity exceeded 50 million tons, and its coal industry's per capita production efficiency increased. Yunnan Energy Investment disclosed its new energy power generation data, and India set a coal production target for the 2026 - 2027 fiscal year [14][15]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, weekly production of the five major steel products, inventory of steel mills and social inventory, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, national daily average pig iron production, apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai spot and May contracts for rebar and hot-rolled coil [16][18][26][35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry giant, Fangda Special Steel, is expected to achieve a significant turnaround in its financial performance for 2025, with projected net profit growth exceeding 200% compared to the previous years [1][2]. Financial Performance - Fangda Special Steel anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 835 million and 998 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 236.90% to 302.67% [2]. - The company also expects a non-recurring net profit of 705 million to 868 million yuan, which would increase by about 299.87% to 392.32% compared to the previous year [2]. - In the previous three years (2022-2024), the company's net profit had declined significantly, with figures of 1.062 billion, 689 million, and 248 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 61.11%, 35.16%, and 64.02% respectively [2][3]. Operational Strategy - Fangda Special Steel has implemented a strategy focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, which has led to a significant increase in gross margin, reaching 10.44% in the first three quarters of 2025, compared to 4.77% in the same period last year [1][7]. - The company has adopted a differentiated business strategy, combining ordinary and special steel products, and is committed to a "low-cost, differentiated, and specialized" development path [6]. - The company has also focused on optimizing its product structure and increasing the production and sales of high-margin products, which has contributed to its performance growth [5][6]. Market Conditions - The steel market in 2025 is characterized by weak downstream demand and fluctuating steel prices, but a significant drop in upstream raw material prices has helped restore steel margins [4][9]. - Fangda Special Steel has been proactive in seizing market opportunities, particularly in the commercial vehicle sector, which has boosted demand for specific products like spring flat steel [9]. Financial Health - As of September 2025, Fangda Special Steel reported a strong financial position with cash reserves of 6.693 billion yuan and interest-bearing liabilities of only 273 million yuan, indicating a robust ability to withstand market risks [1].

Market Overview - The special steel sector experienced a decline of 0.39% on January 29, with Changbao Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the special steel sector include: - CITIC Special Steel (000708) closed at 15.90, up 1.47% with a trading volume of 265,300 shares and a turnover of 419 million yuan [1] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 6.41, up 0.94% with a trading volume of 678,000 shares and a turnover of 439 million yuan [1] - Fushun Special Steel (600399) closed at 6.82, up 0.44% with a trading volume of 1,043,200 shares and a turnover of 721 million yuan [1] - Changbao Co. (002478) closed at 9.82, down 4.01% with a trading volume of 541,800 shares and a turnover of 546 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The special steel sector saw a net outflow of 82.17 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 84.75 million yuan [2] - Detailed capital flow for selected stocks includes: - CITIC Special Steel had a net inflow of 47.09 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Changbao Co. experienced a net outflow of 21.95 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 50 million yuan to Changbao Co. [3]

本报记者 曹琦 1月29日，方大特钢科技股份有限公司（以下简称"方大特钢"）披露公告称，公司预计2025年度实现归 母净利润为8.35亿元到9.98亿元，同比增加236.9%到302.67%。 在钢铁行业面临强供给、弱需求的复杂环境下，这份业绩的增长得益于原燃料成本下跌幅度大于钢材销 售价格下跌幅度，以及公司精细化管理、科技创新的双重驱动。 多重因素驱动业绩增长 方大特钢表示，上游主要原燃料价格显著回落，钢材利润得到一定修复。在生产端，公司持续推进精细 化管理，大力降本增效，建设两套65MW超高温亚临界发电项目，提升能源利用效率。在销售端，公司 抢抓市场机遇，通过优化品种结构，提高高效益产品产销量，有力推动了业绩增长。 此外，2025年，公司非经常性损益金额约为1.3亿元，主要原因是受资本市场整体上涨影响，公司投资 的信托产品等公允价值变动收益增加。 作为集采矿、炼焦、烧结、炼铁、炼钢、轧材于一体的钢铁联合企业，焦炭是方大特钢高炉炼铁的核心 原料，其质量直接关乎钢铁产品品质与生产效率，而炼焦配煤作为生产焦炭的前置关键工序，对最终焦 炭质量和生产成本起着决定性作用。 "传统炼焦配煤模式多依赖技术人员经验与基础理 ...