（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁产业指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及普钢、特钢 及其他钢铁产品等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映钢铁行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 光大证券指出，钢铁行业供给侧在中短期展开的概率有所加强。一方面，2025年四季度上市钢企的亏损 情况已接近于2024年Q3/Q4；另一方面，2026年初以来，钢铁出口政策缩紧，而直接/间接出口是2025年 钢铁业效益的支柱，这一块在2026年势微，也需要供给侧的政策来对冲。2025年12月中央经济工作会议 再提深入整治"内卷式"竞争及深入推进重点行业节能降碳改造，2025年12月底发改委强调继续实施粗钢 产量调控。中长期来看，钢铁板块供给或将得到合理约束，板块盈利有望修复到历史均值水平。 ...

钢铁板块迎估值修复，2月26日，钢铁ETF（515210）盘中涨超1%，上一交易日净流入超8000万 元。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁产业指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及普钢、 特钢等不同领域业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映钢铁产业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。指 数成分股覆盖行业内的主要领域，其中普钢占据主导地位，其样本定期进行调整以保持对行业的代表 性。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的 ...

光大证券指出，钢铁行业供给侧在中短期展开的概率有所加强。原因在于：一方面，四季度上市钢企的 亏损情况已接近于2024年Q3、Q4，形势比人强，这增强了必要性；另一方面，2026年初以来，钢铁出 口政策缩紧，而直接/间接出口是2025年钢铁业效益的支柱，这一块在2026年势微，也需要供给侧的政 策来对冲。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁产业指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及普钢、特钢 等子行业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映钢铁产业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 2月24日，钢铁ETF（515210）涨超2%，钢铁板块迎"开门红"。 消息面上，近期多家钢铁企业公布2026年首月生产"开门红"业绩。阳春新钢铁1月主要指标圆满完成， 产销率达101%并成功开拓海南市场；芜湖新兴多项指标创历史新高，优特钢发运量达近年最好水平； 方大达钢铁、钢、材产量均超额完成计划，自发电率稳定在95%以上。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][10] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 835-998 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 236.90%-302.67%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be 705-868 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 299.87%-392.32% [1][5] - The significant growth in performance is attributed to increased production and sales volume, along with a decline in raw material costs. The company has effectively managed costs and improved efficiency through refined management practices and the construction of two 65MW ultra-high temperature subcritical power generation projects [1][2] - The company has also capitalized on market opportunities by optimizing its product mix to increase the sales volume of high-margin products, which has positively impacted its performance [1] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit of 918 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 270.2%. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.40 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 [4][9] - The forecast for 2026 and 2027 shows EPS of 0.46 yuan and 0.52 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14 and 12 [4][9] Financial Data - The company's revenue for 2025 is estimated at 20.458 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 5.1% from the previous year. The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 248 million yuan, a decrease of 64% [4][9] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve to 8.8% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 4.6% [9] Market Position - The steel industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-end, green, and intelligent production, with a focus on supply-side reforms. The company is well-positioned to benefit from these trends due to its strong internal incentives and effective cost control [2][4]

Group 1 - The company announced an expected increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 835-998 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 236.90%-302.67% [1] - The growth in performance is attributed to increased production and sales volume, along with a decrease in raw material costs, aligning with expectations [1] - The company is implementing refined management practices and cost reduction strategies, including the construction of two 65MW ultra-high temperature subcritical power generation projects to enhance energy efficiency [1] Group 2 - The steel industry is experiencing weak downstream demand and fluctuating steel prices, but upstream raw material prices have significantly decreased, leading to a recovery in steel profits [2] - The company is focusing on internal incentives and effective cost control, with a strong likelihood of asset injections from the group, enhancing growth prospects [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 0.40, 0.46, and 0.52 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 14, and 12 times, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

公司点评 | 方大特钢 产销量增长+原燃料成本下降，业绩高增符合预期 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 30 日 方大特钢（600507.SH）2025 业绩预增点评 事件：公司公告业绩预增，预计 2025 年归母净利润为 8.35-9.98 亿元，同 比增长 236.90%-302.67%；扣非后归母净利润为 7.05-8.68 亿元，同比增长 299.87%-392.32%。 产销量增长+原料成本下降，业绩高增符合预期。我们按照业绩预告中值可 以测算出 2025Q4 单季度归母净利润为 1.28 亿元，同比增长 116.10%；扣 非后归母净利润为 1.32 亿元，同比增长 471.74%，根据业绩预增公告内容： 1）业绩增长方面，2025 年钢铁行业下游需求仍偏弱运行，钢材价格呈震荡 下行态势，但同期上游主要原燃料价格也显著回落，钢材利润得到一定修复。 在生产端，公司持续推进精细化管理，大力降本增效；建设两套 65MW 超高 温亚临界发电项目，提升能源利用效率。在销售端，公司抢抓市场机遇，通 过优化品种结构，提高高效益产品产销量，有力推动了业绩增长。 2）非经营性损益方面，2025 年公司非经常性损 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hualing Steel reported a 12.6% year-on-year decline in steel sales volume for the first half of the year, with expectations for production and sales to align for the full year [1] Company Summary - In the first half of the year, Hualing Steel achieved a steel sales volume of 11.1 million tons, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year; when excluding steel billets sold directly in the domestic market, the decline is approximately 10% [1] - The company indicated that production and sales in the third quarter showed little fluctuation compared to the second quarter, and it plans to adjust production pace based on downstream order demand and profitability [1] Industry Summary - The steel industry is expected to continue experiencing supply-side contraction due to strict policies controlling crude steel production and self-discipline among steel enterprises [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics announced the formation of 12 inspection teams to oversee statistical inspections in six provinces and six ministries, which may help enforce industry policy requirements [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)," which aims to promote high-quality development in the steel sector by focusing on advanced, intelligent, green, efficient, safe, and specialized management practices [1] - The 2025 edition is seen as a tool to optimize supply in the steel industry, eliminate outdated production capacity, and further regulate industry order, potentially alleviating long-term structural contradictions within the sector [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually bottom out, and supply-side market clearing has begun, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction of supply may accelerate, leading to quicker industry recovery [3][8]. - The report highlights a week-on-week increase in steel consumption and a decrease in inventory levels, suggesting a positive trend in demand recovery post-holiday [5][12]. - Profit margins for steel production have decreased, with average gross margins for rebar and hot-rolled coils declining significantly [5][42]. Summary by Sections Steel Prices and Inventory - Last week, the price of Shanghai rebar fell by 50 CNY/ton to 3210 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. Hot-rolled coil prices dropped by 120 CNY/ton to 3280 CNY/ton, a decline of 3.53% [8]. - Total inventory of major steel products decreased to 15.82 million tons, down 1.15% week-on-week [12]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased by 10 CNY/ton to 780 CNY/ton, while futures prices fell by 24.5 CNY/ton to 771 CNY/ton [51]. - Iron ore port inventory rose to 142.78 million tons, an increase of 1.81% [53]. Production and Profitability - The total steel production last week was 8.57 million tons, a decrease of 6.36 million tons week-on-week [36]. - The average gross margin for rebar was 111.6 CNY/ton, down 34.3 CNY/ton, while for hot-rolled coils, it was 21.6 CNY/ton, down 67.6 CNY/ton [42]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the demand for steel will stabilize, with a gradual recovery expected in the construction and manufacturing sectors, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate market [5][8]. - The steel industry is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing inefficient production capacity and promoting high-quality development [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has faced a decline of 2.62% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel down 4.47% and long products down 2.47% [10] - Despite current challenges, including supply-demand imbalances and declining profits, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is expected to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3][10] - The report suggests that the steel industry is likely to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with potential for value recovery in undervalued companies, especially those with high gross margins and strong cost control [3] Supply Situation - As of October 17, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 90.3%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [24] - The average daily pig iron output is 2.4095 million tons, down 0.59 tons week-on-week but up 78,700 tons year-on-year [24] - The total output of five major steel products is 7.489 million tons, a decrease of 45,200 tons week-on-week [24] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.754 million tons as of October 17, an increase of 123,980 tons week-on-week, representing a 16.50% rise [33] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 97,000 tons, down 1.24 tons week-on-week [33] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 11.258 million tons, a decrease of 23,200 tons week-on-week, but an increase of 28.51% year-on-year [41] - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.564 million tons, down 161,400 tons week-on-week [41] Steel Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,415.7 yuan/ton, down 44.57 yuan/ton week-on-week, and down 11.93% year-on-year [47] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is -66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton week-on-week [55] - The profit for electric arc furnace construction steel is -146 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton week-on-week [55] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 781 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton week-on-week [69] - The price of coking coal at the port is 1,690 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week-on-week [69] - The average profit for independent coking enterprises is -13 yuan/ton, down 22% week-on-week [69] Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on regional leading companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those with strong growth potential and cost control capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing improved profitability due to supply-side exit expectations and rising steel prices, with a notable increase in profit margins for steel mills in Q3 compared to Q2 [1]. Group 1: Profitability Analysis - Steel mill profitability increased from 59% in late June to 64% by the end of August, with an average profitability of 62% in Q3, up 4.5 percentage points from Q2 [1]. - The year-on-year profitability for Q3 is expected to show significant improvement due to a low base last year [1]. Group 2: Supply and Policy Outlook - Expectations for reduced steel production capacity are rising, with a focus on eliminating inefficient production [6]. - The "Steel Industry Stability and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes production reduction policies to balance supply and demand, targeting the exit of outdated capacities [6]. Group 3: Cost Dynamics - The commencement of the West Simandou iron ore project is expected to ease iron ore supply, potentially benefiting the steel industry [7]. - Although steel prices may decrease with lower costs, improved supply-demand dynamics could allow profits to flow back to the steel sector and its downstream industries [7]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The steel sector is currently undervalued, with the CSI Steel Index price-to-book ratio at 1.11, within the 54.71% percentile over the past decade [8]. - The steel ETF (515210) has seen significant inflows, exceeding 10 billion since September, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [8].