【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 7 月 25 日 碳酸锂：供给端扰动加剧，短期或偏强 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 76,680 | 7,300 | 8,720 | 12,500 | 15,980 | 5,060 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 1,770,283 | 436,124 | 943,344 | 1,372,261 | 1,088,536 | 1,766,677 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 436,727 | 74,673 | 73,051 | 113,044 | 93,163 | 413,319 | | | 盘面 | 2 ...

Core Insights - POSCO Future M has signed an agreement with a Japanese battery company to supply natural graphite anode materials for electric vehicle batteries, produced at its Sejong plant [1][6] - This partnership is part of POSCO's strategy to expand its global market presence and diversify its customer base, although specific details about the partner and scale of the agreement remain undisclosed [2][6] - The company is focused on establishing a comprehensive supply chain from raw materials to production, responding to supply chain diversification and trade regulations in the US and EU [3][6] Company Performance - Over the past year, PKX stock has decreased by 7.7%, while the industry has seen a decline of 21.4% [3] - POSCO Future M is actively working on commercializing silicon anode materials and enhancing its technological capabilities to improve competitiveness in the market [2][3]

VANCOUVER, BC, July 23, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Lithium South Development Corporation (the "Company" or "Lithium South") (TSX-V: LIS) (OTCQB: LISMF) (Frankfurt: OGPQ) is pleased to announce the appointment of Claudio C. Zalewski as Director of Development & Construction for the Hombre Muerto North ("HMN") Lithium Project (the "Project") in Argentina's Salta basin. Based in Salta, Mr. Zalewski is a bilingual civil engineer (BSc Civil Engineering, Universidad de Buenos Aires, 1981) with more than forty years of ...

Core Insights - POSCO's unit POSCO E&C has secured a KRW 1.5 trillion contract for the Gulf MTP LNG Terminal project in Thailand, enhancing its position in the global LNG sector [1][7] - The project involves constructing two 250,000 cubic meter LNG storage tanks, unloading facilities, and regasification systems with a capacity to process 8 million tons of LNG annually [1][7] - This terminal marks Thailand's first LNG terminal developed through a public-private partnership, led by Gulf Development and PTT Tank Terminal [2] Company Performance - POSCO E&C has a strong track record in Thailand, having executed over 20 projects since 2002, which distinguishes the company in the local construction industry [3] - The recent contract was won amid competition from major global firms from Japan, China, and Lebanon, highlighting POSCO E&C's extensive experience in LNG terminal projects [4] - In the past year, shares of POSCO (PKX) have decreased by 19.8%, while the industry as a whole has seen a decline of 25% [4]

Core Insights - Posco Holdings (PKX) is developing a trial lithium processing plant in the U.S. in collaboration with Anson Resources, marking the first initiative by a South Korean company to produce lithium directly in North America, aimed at reducing reliance on Chinese suppliers due to new U.S. import limits [1][7] Group 1: Project Details - The two companies have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to construct the pilot plant in Green River City, Utah, next year, which will assess the viability of Posco's Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technology for large-scale production [2] - Anson Resources holds mining rights to a lithium brine location in Utah, providing Posco a competitive advantage over domestic rivals like LG Chem, which relies on local lithium producers instead of direct production [3] Group 2: Technology and Market Strategy - Posco aims to commercialize its DLE technology, developed in 2016, following the successful operation of a demonstration plant in the U.S., with plans to invest in and develop untapped lithium brine lakes across North America [4] - The U.S. is home to some of the world's largest lithium reserves, following Bolivia and Argentina, contained in extensive brine lakes [4] Group 3: Financial Performance - Over the past year, shares of PKX have decreased by 19.8%, while the industry has seen a decline of 25% [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights upcoming volatility events that could significantly impact equity markets, particularly for large-cap, highly liquid stocks in the Asia Pacific region [1][2]. - A tracker of key upcoming events for major companies in the region is compiled, focusing on those with substantial market capitalization and trading volume, as well as smaller stocks known for price volatility in sectors like Healthcare and Materials [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Upcoming Events - Key macro catalysts for Japan are included, indicating a focus on significant market-moving events [2]. - Specific companies and their anticipated catalysts are listed, such as: - ANTA Sports Products (2020.HK) with an operational update expected in early to mid-July 2025, monitoring for faster-than-industry performance [11]. - Fast Retailing (9983.T) with FY8/25 Q4 results due in October 2025, assessing if the bottom of performance in China is confirmed [11]. - Pop Mart International (9992.HK) expected to issue a positive profit alert in early to mid-July 2025 [11]. Sector-Specific Insights - In the Materials sector, companies like Aluminum Corp. of China (2600.HK) are monitored for aluminum demand, particularly from solar applications, with developments expected in the second half of 2025 [23]. - The report also tracks developments in the Semiconductor sector, with companies like Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and TSMC (2330.TW) expected to provide updates on market outlook and revenue guidance in the second half of 2025 [25][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cycle of expanding production capacity is not over, and the pressure on the mining end to reduce inventory has marginally eased. The supply of global primary lithium resources in 2025 is expected to reach 1608,000 tons of LCE, a year-on-year increase of 272,000 tons of LCE. The downstream demand growth rate has been slightly revised down, and attention should be paid to the expected difference in apparent demand. The theoretical cost support in 2025 has dropped to 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton, and the cost curve is becoming flatter. It is expected that the operating range of the main lithium carbonate contract in the second half of the year will be 55,000 - 67,000 yuan/ton [2][3][4][5] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In the first half of the year, the unexpectedly high production in the cathode material and cell sectors in January led to an upward revision of the annual demand growth rate, pushing up the price. After the Spring Festival, the over - supply in the salt sector and the negative feedback loop between ore and salt prices dragged down the price. Although some large salt factories started maintenance in April, the supply in the second quarter still increased month - on - month. The cost support moved down due to the decline in the current cost of enterprises, and the market sentiment became more pessimistic [18] 2. The Cycle of Expanding Production Capacity is Not Over, and the Pressure on the Mining End to Reduce Inventory has Marginally Eased 2.1 The Cycle of Expanding Production Capacity at the Resource End is Not Over - The supply of global primary lithium resources in 2025 is expected to be about 1.608 million tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 272,000 tons of LCE. The increase mainly comes from the resumption of production at Jiuxiawo and the output of Lagucuo and Daoxian Xiangyuan. Some projects' output has been slightly revised down. China, Africa, Argentina, and Chile have contributed significant year - on - year increments, while Australia's output has slightly decreased. The supply structure has become more diversified, and the risk of supply disruption is controllable [24][27][28] 2.2 The Differentiation between the Growth Rates of the Resource End and the Salt End: How Much Pressure is There on the Mining End to Reduce Inventory? - From January to May, the supply of lithium carbonate in the Chinese market increased by 42% year - on - year, far exceeding the resource end growth rate. The difference is mainly due to inventory changes. Overseas non - integrated miners have stable inventory days. African lithium mines have some inventory pressure, but it is controllable. The inventory in China has been decreasing, and the pressure to further reduce inventory is limited. The supply growth rate of lithium carbonate in the second half of the year is likely to approach the resource end growth rate. The inventory of salt lakes in Chile and Argentina is low, and the shipping data can be used as a leading indicator for imports [36][40][51] 3. The Terminal Growth Rate has been Slightly Revised Down, and Attention Should be Paid to the Expected Difference in Apparent Demand 3.1 The Power Terminal Maintains High Growth, and the Uncertainty of Energy Storage has Marginally Increased - In the power terminal, from January to May, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicles in China, Europe, and the United States were 44%, 27%, and 3% respectively. The growth rate in China may slow down in the second half of the year, but the end - of - year demand is still worth looking forward to. In Europe, the growth rate has exceeded expectations. In the United States, the policy pressure in the second half of the year is limited. The annual growth rate of global new energy vehicle sales is expected to be maintained at 20% - 26%. In the energy storage terminal, the demand expectation is pessimistic. Domestically, the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation has increased uncertainty, but the high winning bid volume in the first half of the year supports the demand in the second half. Overseas, the demand for exports to the United States may slow down, but the non - US market is performing well. The global energy storage cell shipments are expected to increase by 30% - 40% year - on - year [58][70][83] 3.2 The Inventory Days of Each Downstream Link Remain Neutral - After two years of inventory reduction, the inventory days of each downstream link have returned to a neutral level. The cathode material sector has maintained a low - inventory strategy, and there is little room for further inventory reduction. The cell sector has also achieved inventory reduction. The new energy vehicle inventory level is neutral, and the inventory pressure of some car companies is a structural problem. There may be trading opportunities due to the expected difference between the off - season and the peak season [84][87][88] 4. How to Understand the Downward Shift of Cost Support? - The updated balance sheet shows that the global lithium resources will have a surplus of 228,000 tons of LCE in 2025. The theoretical cost support in 2025 is 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton, down from the previous range. The cost reduction space of mature Australian mines is limited, while African projects may further reduce costs. The cost curve will become flatter, and the cost support will be marginally enhanced [97][98][102] 5. Investment Suggestions - In the second half of the year, the main lithium carbonate contract is expected to operate in the range of 55,000 - 67,000 yuan/ton. The market is relatively optimistic in the third quarter, and the price may decline at the end of the year. The space for unilateral trading is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the range in early Q3 and short positions at the end of Q3. It is more advisable to focus on the positive spread opportunity of LC2509 - LC2511 [106][107]

Group 1 - POSCO Holdings Inc.'s POSCO Future M unit has completed a precursor plant with an annual capacity of 45,000 tons in Gwangyang, Jeollanam-do Province, enhancing its in-house production capabilities for cathode materials [1][2] - The new plant will enable the production of batteries for 500,000 electric vehicles, contributing to supply chain self-sufficiency and quality control [2] - Korea's dependency on Chinese imports for precursors is being addressed by POSCO Future M, which is enhancing its sourcing capabilities for nickel and lithium from within the POSCO group and other non-Chinese sources [3] Group 2 - POSCO Future M aims to become a global top-tier secondary battery materials company by strengthening supply chain management, developing research capabilities, and expanding its product portfolio [4] - PKX stock has experienced a decline of 28.9% over the past year, slightly worse than the industry's decline of 28.5% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The KOSPI index in South Korea has returned to the 3000-point mark for the first time since early 2022, driven by expectations of increased government fiscal stimulus and strong performance from blue-chip stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 20, the KOSPI index rose by 33.16 points, or 1.11%, reaching 3,010.90 points, with a weekly increase of 4.02% and a year-to-date gain of 25.2% [1]. - Over the past 30 trading days, the KOSPI index has rebounded by more than 16%, outperforming major Asian markets including Japan and India [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The liquidity in the South Korean market remains positive, with the Korean won stabilizing, which has enhanced foreign investors' risk appetite [2]. - On the day of reporting, foreign investors net purchased KOSPI stocks worth 811 billion KRW, indicating a renewed interest in Korean assets [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Stimulus - The South Korean government has approved an additional budget plan totaling 14.9 trillion KRW (approximately 786 billion RMB), aimed at supporting the economy amid weakening growth [3]. - The budget includes various counter-cyclical measures such as cash subsidies for residents and financial restructuring support for struggling SMEs and builders [3]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The South Korean economy is facing challenges, with actual GDP growth hovering around zero for four consecutive quarters, and construction investment remaining sluggish [3]. - The government plans to finance the budget through the issuance of 19.8 trillion KRW in new debt, while maintaining that the fiscal fundamentals remain sound [3]. Group 5: Market Projections - Analysts believe that there is still room for further fiscal expansion and monetary easing, which could support the KOSPI in the future [4]. - The current valuation of Korean stocks is considered low, with about 70% of KOSPI constituents having a price-to-book ratio below 1, indicating significant revaluation potential [5].

Group 1 - The article focuses on the Asia Value & Moat Stocks research service aimed at value investors looking for Asia-listed stocks with significant discrepancies between price and intrinsic value [1] - The service emphasizes deep value balance sheet bargains, such as net cash stocks and low price-to-book (P/B) stocks, as well as wide moat stocks that represent high-quality businesses [1] - The author provides a range of watch lists with monthly updates, particularly targeting investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market [1]