证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 AI 军备竞赛持续升级，关注高壁垒软件及云服务 计算机周观察 20260208 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 海外互联网大厂发布季报，资本开支持续超预期。过去一周，微软、META、 亚马逊、谷歌等海外科技大厂先后发布季度财报，四家公司明确表示将持续扩 大 AI 领域的相关投资。SaaS 商业模式遭受质疑，关注高壁垒软件及云服务。 ❑ 亚马逊 AWS 超预期大增，资本开支持续扩大影响自由现金流。亚马逊 25 财 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 285 | 5.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | | 3.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | | 3.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 2.2 8.8 26.8 相对表现 5.3 -4.1 6.0 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《板块配置进一步下降，服务器、 智驾获机 ...

Group 1: Revenue Projections and Business Growth - Anthropic has revised its revenue expectations for 2026 and 2027 to $18 billion and $55 billion, respectively, driven by the increased penetration of its Agent product in the B2B sector [1] - The Agent's token consumption is reported to be several times higher than traditional chat models, indicating a significant shift in its utility and market position [1] - The Agent has transitioned from merely reducing costs to actively driving business growth, which is expected to be a key lever for Anthropic's revenue increase [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - As of November 2025, Claude Code's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) has surpassed $1 billion, showcasing the competitive expansion of coding agents into general scenarios [2] - Major tech companies are embedding agents into their platforms to capture traffic, with Google Chrome integrating tools like Gemini and Nano Banana [2] - ChatGPT's global web traffic share has decreased to 64.5% in January 2026, down approximately 20 percentage points from January 2025, indicating a shift in user engagement and market dynamics [2] Group 3: Consumer and Community Engagement - OpenClaw has gained popularity, leading to increased purchases of Macmini, as it enhances user experience with large models in consumer settings [3] - Moltbook, an Agent version of Reddit, allows agents to autonomously interact, although the actual number of functioning agents is only in the thousands out of over 1.5 million created [4] - The social interactions among agents are characterized as mimicking games rather than genuine emotional exchanges, highlighting the nascent stage of agent community dynamics [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Suggested focus on domestic large models such as Minimax-WP and Zhiyu, as well as companies involved in Agent technology and infrastructure, including 合合信息 and 鼎捷数智 [5] - Recommendations also include investments in domestic computing power firms like 芯原股份 and 寒武纪, along with CPU manufacturers such as 澜起科技 [5]

截至2026年2月6日 10点20分，中证信息技术应用创新产业指数下跌0.69%。成分股方面涨跌互现， 格尔软件领涨10.01%，信安世纪上涨2.95%，绿盟科技上涨1.24%；达梦数据领跌2.27%，深信服下跌 2.24%，泛微网络下跌2.14%。信创ETF（562570）下跌0.88%，最新报价1.46元。 流动性方面，信创ETF盘中换手2.26%，成交1047.43万元。规模方面，信创ETF近1周规模增长 2445.71万元，实现显著增长，新增规模领先同类。 资金流入方面，信创ETF近4天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得3000.09万元净流入，合计"吸 金"5230.15万元，日均净流入达1307.54万元。 消息面上，近日，中国科学技术大学一院士团队在量子网络领域取得重要突破，首次实现可扩展量 子中继的基本模块，并在此基础上首次将器件无关量子密钥分发的传输距离突破百公里。相关成果分别 于3日和6日在国际学术期刊《自然》和《科学》发表。 银河证券认为，量子科技产业正从实验室研发迈向产业化应用，当前投资应聚焦技术璧垒高、商业 化路径清晰的上游核心部件与中游系统集成环节，卡位关键核心公司和产业链。 相关E ...

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are experiencing significant turbulence due to fears that AI may disrupt the SaaS industry, leading to a sharp sell-off in SaaS stocks following the release of an AI tool by Anthropic [1][3]. Group 1: Market Impact - On February 3, the combined market value of two S&P indices tracking software, financial data, and exchange stocks dropped by approximately $300 billion [1]. - The Hong Kong SaaS index fell by 6.39% on February 4, resulting in a total market value loss of nearly HKD 150 billion [1]. - Major SaaS stocks in Hong Kong, such as Kingdee International and Kingsoft, saw declines of 12.64% and 5.14%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Broader Market Reactions - The sell-off in the software sector affected the entire Hang Seng Tech Index, which dropped by 1.84%, with notable declines in Tencent (3.96%), Alibaba (0.93%), and NetEase (3.32%) [2]. - The A-share SaaS index also fell by 2.61%, with companies like Sangfor Technologies and Yonyou Network experiencing significant losses [2]. - The U.S. SaaS sector had already begun to decline on February 3, with a drop of 4.12% in the Wind U.S. SaaS index, leading to a total market value loss exceeding $30 billion [2]. Group 3: Causes of Market Sentiment - The catalyst for the sell-off was the introduction of an AI plugin by Anthropic, which automates various legal tasks, raising concerns about the potential obsolescence of traditional SaaS offerings [3][4]. - The term "SaaSpocalypse" was coined by traders to describe the market's reaction to the perceived threat posed by AI to the SaaS business model [3]. Group 4: SaaS Business Model Insights - SaaS operates on a subscription model, providing services like CRM and ERP, which contrasts with traditional software sales [6]. - The low entry barriers and integration of industry best practices are key advantages of SaaS, making it appealing to small and medium-sized enterprises [6]. - While AI can enhance SaaS offerings by providing personalized solutions, it also presents challenges, particularly for smaller businesses that may struggle with AI deployment [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market may be overreacting, as SaaS still holds advantages in the SME sector, and a differentiation within the SaaS market is expected [7]. - Deloitte predicts that the SaaS business model may evolve, with a shift towards hybrid pricing models based on usage and outcomes by 2026 [7]. - Gartner forecasts that by 2030, at least 40% of enterprise SaaS spending will transition to usage-based or outcome-based pricing models [7].

报告导读： 2025 年计算机业绩预告中，正向增长公司占比过半，呈现增长与下滑并存的 两极分化格局，利润端改善强于营收端，高增长主要集中在硬件与 AI 应用相关方向。 中位数数据显示， 2025 年计算机公司 利润表现优于营收 。 根据统计， 238 家发布业绩预告的公司中，仅 70 家发布营收数据，营收增速的中位数为 0.97% 。归母净利润增速的中 位数为 1 7.83% ；扣非净利润增速的中位数为 28.68% 。总体而言，利润增速高于营收增速。此外，大市值公司在业绩区间 统计中更偏向增长端，在四季度业绩确定性相对更强。 2025 年计算机行业业绩正向占比过半， 增长与下滑两极分化 。 根据申万行业分类， 358 家计算机公司中发布业绩预告 238 家，占比达到了 66.5% 。根 据预计归母净利润同比增长中位数划分： 30%+ 共有 103 家，占 42.9% ； 10%~30% 27 家，占 11.3% ； 0~10% 12 家，占 5.0% ； 0~-10% 6 家，占 2.5% ； -10%~-30% 3 家，占 1.3% ； -30%+ 87 家，占 36.3% 。整体呈现"两头大、中间小"的 ...

Core Insights - The firewall market in China is steadily growing, with the market size expected to increase from $1.17 billion in 2016 to $3.02 billion by 2025, and projected to reach $3.156 billion in 2026 [2][7][20] - The growth is driven by policy support, increasing market demand, and technological advancements, particularly with the deployment of 5G, private networks, and industrial internet [2][15] - The rise of edge computing is increasing the demand for lightweight firewalls, and customized firewall products for scenarios like IoT and smart cities are expected to emerge [2][15] Firewall Industry Definition and Classification - A firewall is an access control product that creates barriers between internal networks and insecure external networks, preventing unauthorized access and attacks [3][16] - Firewalls can be categorized based on technology into traditional firewalls, Unified Threat Management (UTM) firewalls, Next-Generation Firewalls (NGFW), and AI firewalls [5][18] - They can also be classified by form into software firewalls, hardware firewalls, and chip-level firewalls [5][18] Current Development Status - The firewall industry is characterized as a critical component of IT infrastructure, acting as a gatekeeper for network security [7][20] - The market is experiencing steady growth due to supportive policies and increasing technological advancements [7][20] Industry Value Chain - The upstream of the firewall industry includes basic hardware (chips, hard drives, network cards, etc.) and basic software (BIOS, operating systems, encryption) [9][22] - The midstream consists of firewall products, while the downstream applications span various sectors including government, finance, telecommunications, energy, education, healthcare, transportation, and aerospace [9][22] Key Companies - Notable listed companies in the firewall sector include Sangfor Technologies (300454.SZ), Tianrongxin (002212.SZ), Hillstone Networks (688030.SH), Deepin Technology (300768.SZ), Ruijie Networks (301165.SZ), Venustech (002439.SZ), Qihoo 360 (688561.SH), and NSFOCUS (300369.SZ) [2][15]

Group 1 - The China Securities Software Service Index decreased by 1.27% as of February 5, 2026, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, where Shiji Information led with a 3.07% increase, and Yuntian Lifeng experienced the largest decline [1] - The open-source AI agent Clawdbot (now OpenClaw) gained significant popularity, surpassing 136,000 stars on GitHub by February 1, 2026, making it one of the fastest-growing open-source projects of the year [1] - In 2025, global large model technology advanced significantly, achieving notable progress in reasoning, programming, agentic capabilities, and multimodal abilities, although challenges remain in stability and hallucination rates [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Software Service Index accounted for 60.27% of the index as of January 30, 2026, with notable companies including iFlytek, Kingsoft Office, and Tonghuashun [2] - The software ETF (159852) tracks the China Securities Software Service Index, serving as a convenient tool for investing in the computer software industry [2] - Investors can also access AI software investment opportunities through the software ETF linked fund (012620) [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference discusses the current state of the AI application and computer hardware industry, highlighting a divergence in stock prices due to performance differences and market concerns, such as AbbVie's market cap decline despite a 68% revenue growth and 82% adjusted net profit margin in Q3 2025 [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - AI applications are expected to see significant growth in 2026, termed the "year of AI applications and intelligent agents," driven by technological breakthroughs and the emergence of new applications like Claude Bot [2]. - Major companies like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent are intensifying their investments in AI, leading to increased competition. ByteDance is leveraging its partnership with the Spring Festival, while Alibaba is integrating its ecosystem, and Tencent is focusing on talent acquisition [7][8]. - Domestic AI application companies face challenges from insufficient domestic demand and slowing growth in traditional businesses. For instance, Salesforce's stock price nearly halved, with Q3 revenue growth at only 8.3% [5]. Performance of Key Companies - Among 238 computer companies, 36% expect positive net profits, with over 60% anticipating profit growth. Leading firms like iFlytek and Deepin Technology are performing well, indicating a positive trend in the AI sector [6]. - Palantir reported Q4 revenue of $1.41 billion, a 70% year-over-year increase, but faced challenges with only 8% growth in overseas B-end revenue, leading to varied market expectations [4]. Emerging Trends and Investment Opportunities - Investors should focus on two main investment themes: clear and actionable super industry trends such as AI programming and personal intelligent assistants, and long-term collaboration opportunities within large tech company ecosystems [9]. - Companies like Zhuoyue Information and Zhiyu Technology are highlighted as core players in the AI programming sector, showing significant progress and growth potential [10]. Importance of Network Services - NetEase Technology's role in the AI era is emphasized due to its low latency, high interaction frequency, and massive data processing capabilities, which are crucial for AI applications [14]. - The demand for CDN services is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating a "volume and price rise" scenario, making it an attractive investment opportunity [15][16]. Multi-modal Development - The development of multi-modal applications, such as AI short dramas and comics, is identified as a key growth area, with companies like Zhaochi and Wanxing Technology leading the charge [12]. Conclusion - The conference highlights the dynamic landscape of the AI and computer hardware industry, with significant opportunities for growth and investment, particularly in AI applications and network services, as major companies ramp up their efforts in this space.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the median data shows that the profit performance of computer companies in 2025 is expected to outperform revenue [1] - Among the 238 companies that released performance forecasts, only 70 provided revenue data, with a median revenue growth rate of 0.97%. In contrast, the median growth rate for net profit attributable to shareholders is 17.83%, and for non-recurring net profit, it is 28.68% [1] - Large-cap companies tend to lean towards the growth side in performance statistics, with stronger certainty in fourth-quarter performance [1] Group 2 - In 2025, over half of the computer industry performance forecasts are positive, indicating a polarization between growth and decline [2] - Among the 358 computer companies, 238 released performance forecasts, representing 66.5%. The distribution of expected net profit growth rates shows that 42.9% (103 companies) expect growth of over 30%, while 36.3% (87 companies) anticipate a decline of over 30% [2] - The high-growth and significant decline segments combined account for 79.2% of the companies, with 60% (142 companies) expecting growth and 40% (96 companies) expecting decline [2] Group 3 - Among companies with a net profit of approximately 100 million and above, significant performance differentiation is observed [3] - Companies with clear improvements in performance and expected year-on-year growth of over 30% include Tonghuashun, Daotong Technology, and iFLYTEK, among others [3] - Conversely, companies facing profit pressure with year-on-year declines include Bosi Software and Keyuan Wisdom, with the latter showing nearly 40% growth when excluding impairment losses [3]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Information Technology Application Innovation Industry Index has decreased by 2.30% as of February 4, 2026, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, highlighting the volatility in the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The leading stock, Borui Data, surged by 12.28%, while other notable gainers included Geer Software with a 6.93% increase and Nasda with a 2.06% rise [1]. - Conversely, Zhuoyi Information led the decline with a drop of 7.05%, followed by Panwei Network at 5.73% and Deepin Technology at 5.20% [1]. - The Xinchang ETF (562570) fell by 2.03%, reflecting the overall downward trend in the market [1]. Group 2: Company Developments - Moore Thread has officially launched the AI Coding Plan, an intelligent programming service based on domestically produced full-function GPU computing power [1]. - This service utilizes the MTT S5000's robust full-precision computing capabilities, integrating a silicon-based flow reasoning acceleration engine and the top-tier GLM-4.7 code model, marking a significant breakthrough in AI coding [1]. Group 3: ETF Insights - The Xinchang ETF (562570) closely tracks the China Securities Xinchang Index, emphasizing domestic full-stack substitution across key areas such as storage, CPU, and AIPC, which accounts for 16% of the ETF [1]. - The ETF actively incorporates the DeepSeek ecosystem (72%) and AI applications (58%), aiming to establish a secure and controllable system from foundational hardware to industry intelligence [1]. - Currently, the Xinchang ETF (562570) is the largest ETF in its category by scale [1].