计算机 上 市 公 司 2025 年 08 月 24 日 虹软科技 (688088) ——收入稳健，利润超预期，汽车板块维持高增 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 53.20 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 57.68/23.18 | | 市净率 | 7.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.75 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 21,342 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,825.76/12,166.06 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.75 | | | | 资产负债率% | | 10.03 | | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 401/401 | | | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | | | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-22 09-22 10-22 11-22 12 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 24 日 恒生电子（600570.SH） 公司受行业需求不振及自身战略调整共同影响，短期成长承压但管理效率持续 提升，UF3.0、O45 等核心产品持续拓展。我们坚持看好公司主业长期发展， 同时香港创新业务有望打开新的成长空间，维持强烈推荐。 ❑ 风险提示：行业竞争加剧风险；技术颠覆风险；海外市场政策风险等。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 7281 | 6581 | 6955 | 7592 | 8292 | | 同比增长 | 12% | -10% | 6% | 9% | 9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1452 | 1062 | 1323 | 1478 | 1643 | | 同比增长 | 29% | -27% | 25% | 12% | 11% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 1424 | 1043 | 1296 | 1448 | 1610 | | 同比增长 | ...

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 01 日 核心结论 分析师 【宏观】7 月 PMI 数据点评：天气扰动生产，价格开始企稳 7 月制造业 PMI 回落，部分受到天气扰动。随着近期产能治理政策持续推进， 制造业价格开始企稳回升。但是物价持续回升，仍然需要进一步扩大内需， 尤其是扩大投资。 【宏观】7 月政治局会议点评：下半年经济工作重在提高政策质效 会议有诸多重要内容值得关注。首先，会议对当前经济形势做出判断，定调 下半年经济工作。其次，会议高度重视政策质效，不仅"落实"还要"落细"。 第三，会议进一步部署反内卷政策，强调面向重点行业、政府企业协同。第 四，会议重视促消费扩内需与稳民生的结合，建议下半年高度关注需求侧政 策。 【固定收益】7 月 PMI 数据点评：供需回落，价格指数延续上涨 PMI 回落、商品权益市场调整和重要会议靴子落地综合作用下，债市延续修 复行情。大涨大跌后债市或又步入窄幅震荡市，建议波段应对。当前资金面 持续宽松，增量政策或较为有限，债市仍具有进一步修复的空间，但破 6 月 低点的难度较大，不确定性仍在于商品与权益市场表现。 【计算机】计算机行业点评：AI 应用持续进展 海 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 61.29 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 47.52 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 15%-20% and a net profit growth of 30%-50% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year [1][2]. - The AI capabilities of the company continue to upgrade, particularly in the education sector, with significant enhancements in AI learning machines and smart blackboards [2][3]. - The company has established a comprehensive product system in smart education, serving over 1.3 billion teachers and students across 32 provinces in China [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a gross profit increase of over 600 million CNY in the first half of 2025, with total sales receipts reaching approximately 10.3 billion CNY, an increase of about 1.3 billion CNY year-on-year [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities has grown by over 700 million CNY, representing a growth of approximately 50% compared to the previous year [1]. Product Development - The AI learning machine has undergone 16 major upgrades, including personalized test paper generation and one-on-one interactive tutoring capabilities [1][3]. - The AI blackboard has been widely adopted across 33 provincial-level administrative regions, empowering over 2.3 million teachers [3]. Market Position - The company’s AI hardware sales during the "618" shopping festival saw a year-on-year increase of 42%, with the AI learning machine maintaining the top sales position on major e-commerce platforms for three consecutive years [2]. - The company is recognized as a leader in the domestic AI industry, focusing on the commercialization of AI technologies across various sectors [10]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 28.34 billion CNY, 32.78 billion CNY, and 37.53 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to reach 870.5 million CNY, 1.28 billion CNY, and 1.69 billion CNY in the same years [10][12].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **cloud computing** and **AI application** sectors, with a focus on **domestic computing power** and **software companies** in China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **AI Application Trends**: The AI application sector is showing a positive trend, which is expected to continue driving the computing industry forward in 2021 and beyond. The computing sector was highlighted as a key recommendation in June [1][3]. 2. **Overseas Performance**: Companies like **NVIDIA** and **Oracle** have reported better-than-expected earnings, indicating a trend that is likely to continue in the second half of the year [2][3]. 3. **Domestic Market Outlook**: The domestic computing power sector is expected to mirror the positive performance seen in overseas markets, with companies like **Guangdian** being highlighted as key players [3][4]. 4. **Cloud Computing Recovery**: The cloud computing market is anticipated to recover, with expectations of a 20% growth in Q2, reaching approximately **2.3 billion RMB** in revenue [6]. 5. **Domestic Computing Power Development**: The introduction of Huawei's **314 system-level computing power** is a significant development, aiming to compete with overseas products [7][8]. 6. **AI Software Growth**: The AI application software sector is expected to see robust growth, particularly in management and office software, driven by domestic demand [11][12]. 7. **Investment Recommendations**: Key companies to watch include **Kingsoft Cloud**, **Hua Da 9000**, and **Da Meng Data**, which are expected to perform well due to their focus on AI and domestic market needs [15][19]. 8. **Market Dynamics**: The overall sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of continued growth in the AI application and cloud computing sectors, driven by both domestic and international demand [9][10]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions**: The inability to import certain overseas products, such as H20 chips, has caused disruptions in the cloud computing supply chain, but recovery is expected in the coming quarters [5]. 2. **Focus on Domestic Demand**: Companies with a strong domestic focus, particularly those meeting local needs for AI applications, are likely to outperform their peers [11][12]. 3. **Long-term Trends**: The shift towards system-level computing solutions is seen as a long-term trend that will continue to shape the domestic computing power landscape [8][9]. 4. **Sectoral Differentiation**: There is a noted differentiation in performance across various sectors, with energy, telecommunications, and military applications showing particular promise [28][29]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the cloud computing and AI application sectors.

Group 1: Non-Bank Financial Sector - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice on July 11 to strengthen the long-term assessment of state-owned commercial insurance companies, adjusting the evaluation method for "return on net assets" and "capital preservation and appreciation rate" to a combination of current year, 3-year, and 5-year indicators with respective weights of 30%, 50%, and 20% [2][6][21] - The new assessment method aims to encourage insurance funds to focus on long-term stable investments, which is expected to enhance the long-term investment returns of insurance companies and alleviate investment pressures [2][9][21] - The insurance sector is anticipated to see an increase in equity asset allocation, while maintaining a generally stable asset allocation style due to the pressure on liability costs and the need for quality assets to achieve incremental investment returns [8][9][21] Group 2: Market Strategy and Performance - The A-share market continued to rise, with the ChiNext index and the CSI 1000 index both increasing by approximately 2.4%, driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" trend and positive changes in domestic policies [3][12] - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: technology growth sectors benefiting from both domestic and external demand, industries likely to improve due to the "anti-involution" trend, and financial sectors with high dividend advantages [3][13] - The real estate sector saw a significant increase of 6.12%, indicating a potential recovery as market sentiment improves ahead of important meetings [18][19] Group 3: AI and Office Software Industry - The AI + office software industry is at a turning point, transitioning from tool intelligence to workflow reconstruction, driven by breakthroughs in large model technology [3][15] - Major players like Microsoft dominate the high-end market, while domestic companies leverage localized data advantages and policy support to rapidly rise in the market [15][16] - Investment opportunities are recommended in companies such as Kingsoft Office, Foxit Software, and others, as the industry is expected to continue expanding due to the deepening of digital transformation and the demand for domestic alternatives [15][16] Group 4: Oil and Petrochemical Sector - The oil and petrochemical sector is supported by seasonal demand for refined oil, with WTI crude oil prices rising by 3.05% recently [24][26] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to provide short-term support for oil prices, while OPEC+ plans to increase production may lead to downward pressure on prices in the medium term [24][26] - The report suggests focusing on domestic oil companies with strong earnings resilience, such as China National Petroleum, China Petroleum & Chemical, and China National Offshore Oil [26] Group 5: Precious and Industrial Metals - The gold market is expected to perform well in the medium to long term due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and a weakening dollar [28][30] - Copper prices may face short-term volatility due to impending tariffs, but medium-term demand is expected to remain strong due to industrialization in emerging markets [28][30] - The aluminum market is anticipated to see upward price movement due to a strong supply-demand imbalance, with recommendations for companies like Tianshan Aluminum [28][30]

Group 1 - The technology growth sector has seen a strong rebound since April 9, with the PCB index rising over 50% and the CPO concept index increasing nearly 40% as of July 3 [1] - Notable companies such as Xinyiseng in the optical module sector and Shenghong Technology, Dongshan Precision in the PCB sector have reached historical stock price highs [1] - Funds heavily invested in the technology sector have also experienced significant net value rebounds, with the Yongying Technology Smart Mixed Fund increasing by 57.77% and the Zhonghang Opportunity Leading Mixed Fund rising by 56.66% from April 9 to July 2 [3] Group 2 - A substantial influx of capital into technology sub-sectors has been observed, with significant net subscriptions for thematic ETFs, including 2.682 billion yuan for the Jiashi Science and Technology Chip ETF and 1.413 billion yuan for the Huaxia Robot ETF since June [3] - The overall valuation of the TMT sector has recovered to historical averages, although there is internal valuation differentiation, particularly in computing, electronics, and media sectors, which may lead to short-term market fluctuations [3] - Institutions have been actively researching technology sub-sectors, with a focus on semiconductor, computer software, and optoelectronic devices, emphasizing performance as a core concern [4]

Group 1 - Significant capital inflow into technology sector ETFs since June, with some ETFs reaching historical highs in shares [1][3] - The technology growth sector is experiencing a positive industry trend, particularly in the AI-related supply chain, with strong performance expected in upcoming half-year reports [1][4] - The PCB index has increased over 50% and the CPO concept index has risen nearly 40% since April 9, indicating a strong rebound in the technology growth sector [2] Group 2 - Major funds focused on the technology sector have seen substantial net value rebounds, with some funds increasing by over 56% since April 9 [2] - Recent data shows significant net subscriptions for various technology-themed ETFs, with notable amounts for the Jiashi Sci-Tech Chip ETF and Huaxia Robot ETF [3] - Institutions are actively researching and seeking investment opportunities in the technology sector, with a focus on performance metrics of relevant companies [4] Group 3 - The AI industry is expected to see continued demand for computing power, with innovations in AI hardware and applications likely to drive growth in the semiconductor cycle [5] - Institutions are increasing allocations in AI-related sectors, including internet applications and hardware supply chains, reflecting a bullish outlook on the technology sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The digital economy theme index and related ETFs are showing positive performance, indicating a growing interest and investment in the digital economy sector, particularly in technology and finance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 19, 2025, the China Securities Digital Economy Theme Index (931582) increased by 0.45%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Northern Huachuang (3.01%) and Mingzhi Electric (2.86%) [1]. - The Digital Economy ETF (560800) rose by 0.27%, with a latest price of 0.74 yuan and a turnover rate of 0.73%, totaling a transaction volume of 550.43 million yuan [1]. - Over the past year, the average daily transaction volume for the Digital Economy ETF was 2,308.89 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Insights - The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the importance of financial services in supporting technological and industrial innovation during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum [2]. - The speech highlighted the need to address three shortcomings in the current financial service system to better support technological innovation and industrial transformation [2]. Group 3: Index Composition - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Digital Economy Theme Index accounted for 50.98% of the index, with companies like Dongfang Caifu and Zhongxin International leading [3]. - The index primarily focuses on the electronics and computer sectors, which together represent 82% of the index's weight, with non-bank financials increasing by 2 percentage points to 10% [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the fintech sector, particularly in stablecoins and RWA (Real World Assets) [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the global regulatory evolution surrounding stablecoins, highlighting the transition from a "grey area" to a "regulatory sandbox" as major economies establish frameworks to support the industry. This regulatory clarity is expected to enhance market acceptance and reduce transaction costs [9][20]. - The report suggests that the RWA market is poised for significant growth, with projections indicating that the on-chain asset scale could exceed $2 trillion by 2030, up from over $23 billion in 2025 [16][30]. - The report identifies key companies to watch in the stablecoin and RWA sectors, including Zhongke Jincai, Jinzheng Co., and Langxin Group, among others, recommending investors to focus on these entities as they navigate the evolving landscape [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Evolution of Stablecoins and RWA - The report outlines the overseas development of stablecoins, noting that major economies are creating regulatory frameworks to facilitate their use in cross-border payments and digital asset transactions. This shift is expected to lead to a more structured and compliant market [9]. - In China, the report discusses the Hong Kong regulatory sandbox for stablecoins, which aims to balance financial stability with innovation, allowing for the issuance of various fiat-backed stablecoins [20][21]. 2. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies involved in stablecoins: Zhongke Jincai, Jinzheng Co., Zhong An Online, Lianlian Digital, China Everbright Holdings, Yuxin Technology, Tianyang Technology, Sifang Chuangxin, and Jingbei Fang [30]. - For RWA, the report highlights Langxin Group, Xiexin Energy, and Jieshun Technology as key players, along with potential RWA assets that could be tokenized [30]. 3. Market Review - The report provides a market review for the week of June 9-13, 2025, noting a slight decline in the CSI 300 index by 0.25% and a 2.25% drop in the computer sector, with specific stocks showing significant gains and losses [38][43].