%% %% %% %% 固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 政策性金融工具，能撬多少倍？——"财政的底 色"系列报告（四） 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BWI629 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 政策性金融工具有显著的"准财政"属性，它能发挥市场化运作优势，撬动更多民间资本参与， 提高投资效率。2026 年 2 月国常会提到"要加力提效用好新型政策性金融工具"，我们预计 2026 年新型政策性金融工具规模或将保持高位，延续"精准支持、高效投放、结构优化"的导 向。随着项目最低资本金比例的结构性调降，理论上政策性金融工具的撬动倍数上升。我们手 工收集并计算了各省、部分披露项目的撬动倍数情况，新型政策性金融工具的撬动倍数集中在 10 倍左右，但在实践中可能存在高估。 %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table ...

固收周报 避险情绪主导债市 美债收益率显著回落 美债收益率明显回落， 10 年期和 2 年期美债收益率上周分别下行 15 个和 10 个基 点至 3.94% 和 3.37% 。虽然近期数据显示美国通胀压力有所回升，但市场情绪被 避险情绪主导，带动美债收益率明显回落。受到美债收益率明显回落的提振，上 周中资美元债表现较佳，彭博巴克莱中资美元债总回报指数全周上涨 0.4% 。上 周末，美以正式对伊朗展开军事行动，伊朗随即反击，并封锁霍尔木兹海峡，带 动原油价格大幅上涨。特朗普称针对伊朗的军事行动可能会持续四星期，短期内 在避险情绪和通胀预期升温的共振下，美债可能维持波动。高于预期的通胀数据 和地缘冲突触发的能源价格上升，也进一步降低美联储于 3 月降息的可能性。在 岸市场方面， 3 年期和 10 年期国债收益率分别较春节假期前持平和上行 2 个基点 至 1.38% 和 1.82% 。周一，境内利率债市同样受到避险情绪提振，各期限国债收 益率普遍有所回落。两会将在本周召开，届时将公布 2026 年经济目标、财政支 持力度等，并可能释放更多货币政策信号，债市料将会有所定价。 离岸市场：美债市场提前定价战争风险 中资美 ...

固 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 28 日 定 收 益 重构信贷收支表：连接货币政策与银行行为 ——解构宏观流动性系列之一 固 定 收 益 近年来债券投资者对于银行债券配置行为的关注度持续提升，但债券 投资并不是银行最主要的业务类型。银行的存款与贷款分别是 M2 与社融 的主要构成部分，而后者又是货币政策的目标，央行本质上也是通过调控 流动性来影响银行的行为，进而实现其货币政策的目标。因此，研究银行 债券配置需要从中观视角连接货币政策与银行行为。而央行每月公布的信 贷收支表为相关行为提供了相对充分的信息。 深 度 考虑 M2 是货币政策的重要中介目标，因此我们的研究以银行行为如 何影响 M2 作为起点。由于银行存款与 M0 都在信贷收支表的资金来源端， 二者又是 M2 的主要组成部分。理论上如果其他因素不变，银行其他资金 来源的下降与资金运用的上升，都会带来 M2 的上升，因此我们既可以根 据信贷收支表上各类机构各类存款的此消彼长分析 M2 的变动，也可以根 据其他科目的变化来反推 M2 变动的原因。但近年来，M2 的变动常常与信 贷、债券投资等科目的变动相背离，如果反推 M2 可以发现其变动常常由 其他 ...

据中国进出口银行人力资源部（党委组织部）微信公众号近日消息，周亮球任中国进出口银行广东省分 行党委书记、行长。作为在中国进出口银行系统内逐步成长起来的干部，周亮球此前曾在该行多家分行 任职，具有丰富的跨区域管理经验。 进出口银行广东省分行迎来新掌舵人 周亮球是一位在中国进出口银行系统内逐步成长起来的干部。 根据国家金融监督管理总局官网此前发布的任职资格批复信息，2013年7月，周亮球中国进出口银行湖 北省分行行长助理的任职资格获得核准；2015年12月，周亮球升任湖北省分行副行长；2018年8月，周 亮球履新中国进出口银行辽宁省分行行长。 另据公开信息，2022年7月，周亮球又调任中国进出口银行天津分行，任党委书记、行长。在掌舵天津 分行时，周亮球曾表示，要立足政策性银行职能定位，聚焦主责主业，紧扣"十五五"规划确定的目标任 务和天津市高质量发展实践，在支持先进制造、研发创新、外贸基础设施建设、服务企业"走出去"等方 面加大支持力度，以高质量履职成效为区域经济发展贡献力量。 广东省分行近期收百万元罚单 中国进出口银行是由国家出资设立、直属国务院领导、支持中国对外经济贸易投资发展与国际经济合 作、具有独立法人地 ...

责任编辑：王馨茹 2月26日金融一线消息，据"口行组轩"微信公众号，中国进出口银行党委决定：周亮球任广东省分行党 委书记、行长。 2月26日金融一线消息，据"口行组轩"微信公众号，中国进出口银行党委决定：周亮球任广东省分行党 委书记、行长。 责任编辑：王馨茹 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.06% as of February 26 [2] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is seeing significant investment, with the Export-Import Bank of China planning to issue 640 billion yuan in new loans by 2025, focusing on trade, infrastructure, overseas investment, advanced manufacturing, green development, and improving people's livelihoods [2] - The total balance of "Belt and Road" loans from the Export-Import Bank has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, covering over 130 countries involved in the initiative [2] Group 2 - In 2025, China's total import and export value with "Belt and Road" countries is projected to reach 23.6 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, significantly higher than the overall growth rate of China's foreign trade [3] - The proportion of trade with "Belt and Road" countries in China's total foreign trade is expected to rise to 51.9% in 2025, indicating that more than 5 out of every 10 yuan in China's foreign trade will come from these partners [3] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is solidifying its role as a cornerstone and main channel for China's foreign trade [3] Group 3 - The E Fund "Belt and Road" ETF (515110) is positioned to capitalize on strategic investment opportunities in "Belt and Road" countries [4]

据新华社电记者24日从中国进出口银行获悉，2025年，进出口银行新发放"一带一路"贷款6400亿元，资 金重点投向贸易进出口、基础设施互联互通、境外投资和产能合作、先进制造业、绿色发展、民生改善 等领域。 截至目前，进出口银行"一带一路"贷款余额超2万亿元，覆盖130多个共建国家。 据介绍，作为专注于支持我国对外贸易投资发展和国际经济合作的政策性金融机构，进出口银行秉承共 商、共建、共享原则，统筹支持重大标志性工程和"小而美"民生项目，深化贸易、投资、产业等方面务 实合作，拓展绿色、科技、健康等领域创新合作，促进"一带一路"共建国家经济社会发展和人民生产生 活改善。 同时，进出口银行积极开展金融同业合作，通过转贷款、银团贷款、联合融资、平行融资等方式，共同 为相关项目提供金融支持，形成服务"一带一路"建设合力。 （文章来源：期货日报网） ...

Core Viewpoint - The former deputy governor of the Xinjiang branch of the China Export-Import Bank, Li Shengye, has been expelled from the Party and public office due to serious violations of discipline and law, highlighting ongoing anti-corruption efforts within the financial sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Violations and Investigations - Li Shengye was found to have lost his ideals and beliefs, resisted organizational investigations, and provided false information during inquiries [2]. - He ignored the central government's eight-point regulations by accepting potentially compromising banquets [2]. - Li engaged in private lending for substantial returns and used his position to assist others in loan processing, illegally accepting large sums of money [2]. Group 2: Disciplinary Actions - The China Export-Import Bank's Party committee decided to expel Li Shengye from the Party and public office, confiscate his illegal gains, and refer his criminal activities to the prosecution [3]. - Li had a long tenure at the bank, with his qualifications as deputy governor approved in April 2024, and he was under investigation for serious violations by November 2025 [3]. Group 3: Broader Context of Corruption - The China Export-Import Bank has been actively addressing corruption, with a focus on cross-border corruption, bidding-related corruption, and monitoring high-risk areas [4]. - The bank's leadership has emphasized a zero-tolerance policy towards corruption, particularly targeting key positions and younger officials [4].

Core Viewpoint - The former deputy governor of the Xinjiang branch of the China Export-Import Bank, Li Shengye, has been expelled from the Party and public office due to serious violations of discipline and law, highlighting ongoing anti-corruption efforts within the financial sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investigation and Findings - Li Shengye was subjected to an investigation by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the Fujian Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection for serious violations of discipline and law [2]. - The investigation revealed that Li Shengye lost his ideals and beliefs, resisted organizational scrutiny, and provided false information during investigations [3]. - He ignored the spirit of the Central Eight Regulations by accepting invitations that could influence the impartial execution of his duties [3]. Group 2: Violations and Consequences - Li Shengye was found to have breached the bottom line of integrity by obtaining large returns through private lending and using his position to assist others in loan processing and issuing financing guarantees, while illegally accepting substantial amounts of money [3]. - The disciplinary actions taken against him include expulsion from the Party and public office, confiscation of illegal gains, and referral of his criminal issues to the prosecutorial authorities for legal review [3]. - The China Export-Import Bank has seen multiple officials disciplined in 2025, indicating a broader crackdown on corruption within the institution [4]. Group 3: Broader Context - In January 2026, the China Export-Import Bank held a conference emphasizing the importance of combating cross-border corruption and thoroughly investigating corruption in bidding processes, particularly focusing on high-risk areas and key positions [4].

2月24日金融一线消息，据"进出口银行"微信公众号消息，中国进出口银行党委决定：黄华丽任金融机 构部（转贷部、外事管理中心）总经理；张炬任天津分行党委书记。 2月24日金融一线消息，据"进出口银行"微信公众号消息，中国进出口银行党委决定：黄华丽任金融机 构部（转贷部、外事管理中心）总经理；张炬任天津分行党委书记。 责任编辑：李琳琳 责任编辑：李琳琳 ...