2026 年 3 月 2 日 生猪：淡季被动累库，肥标驱动将现 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 10980 | | -50 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 10700 | | -100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11410 | | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11485 | | 90 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12510 | | 150 | | | 期 货 | 生猪2609 | 元/吨 | 13495 | | 165 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 ...

2026 年 2 月 27 日 生猪：盘面提前交易累库，但淡季去库难度大 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11030 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 10800 | | -100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11360 | | 50 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 10120 | | -275 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11395 | | -70 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12360 | | 15 | ...

日度报告——综合晨报 芝加哥联储行长：若通胀回落 美联储可能多 次降息 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-27 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 芝加哥联储行长：若通胀回落 美联储可能多次降息 伊朗外长称美伊谈判取得进展，市场风险偏好回落，美元指数 走低。 宏观策略（股指期货） A 股放量震荡整理 综 市场成交逐渐放量，更多流动性回归场内交易，这是我们判断 春季躁动仍未结束的原因之一。海外 AI 泡沫担忧逐渐深化，A 股或受映射。科技股短期回调压力增加，但中期仍看好。 巴西 2 月前两周出口糖和糖蜜 131.38 万吨 本榨季印度糖估产大幅下调 165 万吨至 2930 万吨，这将支撑印 度国内糖价，并限制其出口量，同时也有利于减轻本榨季全球 糖市供应过剩压力。 有色金属（碳酸锂） 芬兰启动欧洲首座商业化锂辉石矿山运营 短周期内仍以偏多思路看待。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 3205 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 稳地产政策可以理解为临时扰动，在其他利空出现之前，债市 难以持续下跌，部分时刻还会存在反弹动力。不过后续潜在的 风险因素仍然存在。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 巴西 ...

唐人神（002567.SZ）2月26日在投资者互动平台表示，剔除外购仔猪影响后，公司第三季度的"公司+农 户"养殖完全成本为13.3元/公斤，其他详细经营数据请及时查阅公司相关公告。目前公司已成立了专项 成本下降小组，从饲料、兽药疫苗、人工薪酬等方面降低养殖成本，力争2026年头均成本下降100元/ 头，公司肥猪完全成本争取控制在12.6元/公斤左右。预计2026年公司外购仔猪占比将逐步减少，自有 仔猪占比逐步提升。公司2026年生猪出栏进度将基于市场行情以及公司生猪生产计划制定。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：当前有部分自媒体说公司生猪成本为13.3元，请问公司 2025年12月或26年1月生猪完全成本是多少？预计什么时候能达到12.6元？2026年新生仔猪自繁比例能 否达到完全自繁？目前有无2026年生猪出栏数量目标？ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The futures market is trading inventory accumulation in advance, but it is difficult to reduce inventory during the off - season [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: - Henan spot price is 10,930 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan spot price is 10,900 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton year - on - year; Guangdong spot price is 11,310 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. - Futures prices:生猪2603 is 10,395 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton;生猪2605 is 11,465 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton;生猪2607 is 12,345 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - For生猪2603, trading volume is 11,725 hands, down 4,001 hands from the previous day, and open interest is 23,819 hands, down 4,193 hands from the previous day [2]. - For生猪2605, trading volume is 92,641 hands, up 14,108 hands, and open interest is 154,544 hands, up 2,011 hands [2]. - For生猪2607, trading volume is 15,839 hands, up 6,257 hands, and open interest is 52,812 hands, up 1,698 hands [2]. - **Spread Data**: - 生猪2603 basis is 535 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton year - on - year;生猪2605 basis is - 535 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton year - on - year;生猪2607 basis is - 1,415 yuan/ton, down 410 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. - 生猪3 - 5 spread is - 1,070 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton year - on - year;生猪5 - 7 spread is - 880 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Guangxi Yangxiang registered 100 hands of 3 - month contract warehouse receipts; Dekang registered 525 hands; Fuyuan registered 22 hands; Muyuan registered 80 hands; COFCO registered 300 hands; Tangrenshen registered 10 hands; Yuexiu registered 99 hands; Tiannong registered 20 hands [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4].

2026 年 2 月 25 日 生猪：现货不及预期，淡季去库难度大 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11080 | | -1300 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11300 | | 450 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11660 | | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 10740 | | -155 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11500 | | -40 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12220 | | -10 | | | | | 单 位 | ...

内容概要：当前，中国正逐步减少在养殖中使用抗生素，养殖企业积极寻找安全高效的替代方案。饲料 酸化剂通过降低消化道pH值、抑制有害微生物、促进营养吸收，成为重要的替代选择。同时，饲料行 业整体向"提质增效"转型，对饲料配方的精细化、专业化要求提高。酸化剂能有效提升饲料蛋白转化效 率，降低饲料成本，符合饲料行业降本增效的核心诉求。此外，国家加强了对饲料投入品的监管，并鼓 励推广新型安全高效添加剂，为酸化剂等合规、安全的产品提供了良好的发展环境。在此背景下，饲料 酸化剂行业市场规模持续上涨。2025年中国饲料酸化剂行业市场规模达到46.12亿元，同比上涨 12.65%。 相关上市企业：美农生物（301156）、大北农（002385）、牧原股份（002714）、温氏股份 （300498）、新希望（000876）、天邦食品（002124）、唐人神（002567）、新五丰（600975）、中牧 股份（600195）等。 相关企业：潍坊加易加生物科技有限公司、生物源生物技术(深圳)股份有限公司、上海正正生物技术有 限公司、河南星汉生物科技有限公司、重庆民泰新农业科技发展集团有限公司、成都大帝汉克生物科技 有限公司、广州市佰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall profitability of the pig industry is expected to decline in 2025 due to fluctuations in the market, with several listed pig companies forecasting significant drops in net profits compared to the previous year [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Muyuan Foods is expected to report a net profit of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.2% to 17.79% year-on-year [1]. - Wens Foodstuff Group anticipates a net profit of 5 billion to 5.5 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 40.73% to 46.12% year-on-year [1]. - New Hope Group forecasts a loss of 1.8 billion to 1.5 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 474 million yuan in the previous year [1]. - Other companies like Tangrenshen and Juxing Agriculture are also expected to see declines in profits from pig farming in 2025 [1]. Group 2: Market Price Trends - In 2025, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) is projected to decrease by approximately 17% compared to 2024, with prices fluctuating from 15-16 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 11-12 yuan/kg in the fourth quarter [1]. - The price of live pigs showed a downward trend throughout 2025, starting from 16.1 yuan/kg in early January and reaching a low of 10.9 yuan/kg by mid-October [2]. Group 3: Supply and Production Capacity - The supply of live pigs is expected to remain ample throughout 2025, prompting authorities to emphasize the need for capacity regulation measures, including the reduction of breeding sows and control of pig weights [6]. - As of the end of Q4 2025, the number of breeding sows was reported at 39.61 million, which is 101.6% of the normal holding capacity, indicating a slight decrease in capacity [7]. - The production efficiency in the pig farming industry has significantly improved, with the number of weaned piglets per sow per year (PSY) increasing to around 26, with some leading companies nearing 29 [7]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Many institutions predict that the supply side may tighten in the second half of 2026, potentially leading to a cyclical rebound in pig prices [7]. - The pig industry may face pressure in the first half of 2026, but this period could also serve as a favorable window for capacity reduction [8]. - The ongoing market dynamics suggest that while there may be a rebound in prices, the extent of this rebound could be limited if capacity reduction is not thorough [9].

证券日报网讯 2月13日，唐人神在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司依据现有会计政策和规则要求 进行信息披露，请及时关注公司公告。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

格隆汇2月13日丨唐人神(002567.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司目前尚无供港和出口生猪业务。 ...