易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日早参 2025 年 12 月 17 日 宋亭亭 汽车行业首席研究员 邮箱： songtingting021619@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：短期扰动之外美国私人就业维持扩张 概览：11 月美国新增非农 6.4 万，高于彭博一致预期的 5 万，10 月为-10.5 万；11 月失业率较 9 月超预期上行 0.2pp 至 4.6%，劳动参与率也较 9 月上 行 0.1pp 至 62.5%；小时工资环比增速较 10 月回落 0.3pp 至 0.1%，不及预 期的 0.3%；每周工时较 9 月小幅回升 0.1 小时至 34.3 小时，高于预期。由 于政府关门，10 月失业率等家庭调查数据缺失，9 月底 DOGE 买断计划到期 以及政府关门对 10 月新增非农数据也产生较大扰动，剔除政府部门后的私人 部门就业维持一定韧性。失业率上升，叠加此后公布的 12 月 Markit PMI 偏 弱，降息预期小幅升温。截至北京时间 23 点 20 分，相较数据公布前，市场 定价的 2026 年累计降息预期上行 2bp 至 60bp，2 年期美债收益率下行 3b ...

宏观策略 证券研究报告 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观量化经济指数周报 20251214：居民出行数据强于季节性，"冰雪经 济"有望为服务消费注入新动能 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-12-17 利率窄幅波动态势或延续至跨年 海外周报 20251214：11 月非农与 CPI 前瞻：新增就业料疲软，通胀中枢 料维持 3% 核心观点：本周美联储如期降息，叠加鲍威尔在发布会上较为"意外"的 鸽派信号，短端美债利率再度下行；但由于甲骨文和博通再度引发市场对 AI 投资泡沫的担忧，美股下行。本周 FOMC 会议点阵图指引 6 名 FOMC 成员不赞同本次降息，2026 全年降息 1 次，整体偏鹰；但同时美联储超 预期宣布启动轻量扩表，且由于反对票、鹰派点阵图已被市场抢跑预期， 因此 Powell 在发布会上偏鸽派的发言反而助推了市场的宽货币交易。向 前看，下周即将公布的 11 月非农与 CPI 数据料显现出政府停摆给 25Q4 美国经济带来的负面影响。当前分析师一致预期 11 月新增非农就业为 5 万，但预测标准差高达 3.3 万，市场分歧较大，且发布的数据质量仍可能 不佳，劳务市场 ...

今日早参 2025 年 12 月 16 日 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程首席研究 员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 樊俊豪 金控研究部负责人暨可选消费首席研 究员 邮箱：fanjunhao@htsc.com 今日热点 策略：资金透视：逆势资金近期回暖 近期市场在前期回调后再度进入震荡期，A 股日成交额较此前有所回落，对 市场向上动量形成约束，我们关注资金面能否看到积极信号，目前来看： 1）交易性资金内部仍有所分化，融资资金此前杠杆去化或基本到位，上周 情绪有所回暖，私募证券基金备案数目创年内新高，但被动外资、期权市场 仍有待观察；2）逆势资金力度增强，上周主动回购数目增多、宽基 ETF 继 续净流入；3）资金面当前呈现"下有底"状态，增量需进一步观察。 风险提示：估算持仓模型失效；数据统计口径有误；散户资金估算口径偏 误。 研报发布日期：2025-12-15 研究员 何康 SAC:S0570520080004 SFC:BRB318 王伟光 SAC:S05 ...

证券日报网讯12月15日，英科再生在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，英科再生已构建起完善的全球化 营销网络，业务辐射全球约130个国家和地区。公司通过统筹调配国内及海外生产基地的产能，精准匹 配全球各区域市场的差异化需求，可有效平抑单一区域或市场波动带来的经营风险。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Reserve is likely to enter an "observation period" after the recent interest rate cut, amid conflicting inflation and employment indicators [2][3] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes a moderate expansion policy and high-quality development, with a more positive stance on real estate policies [3][4] - Domestic macro data shows active resident travel but subdued industrial production, with a focus on the impact of real estate policies and fiscal measures for the upcoming year [3][4] Group 2: Investment Strategies - A bottom-up approach is recommended for positioning in the spring market, focusing on five structural themes, including AI computing power and lithium battery storage [3][4] - The market sentiment in Hong Kong remains pessimistic, with potential catalysts for future rallies identified, such as RMB appreciation and domestic technological advancements [4] - Investors are advised to adopt a trading mindset in convertible bonds, focusing on short-term opportunities while being cautious of credit events [7][8] Group 3: Sector-Specific Developments - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange launched the HKEX Technology 100 Index, which has outperformed the Hang Seng Tech Index, indicating a broader coverage of tech-related sectors [5] - The energy sector is shifting focus from supply to demand research, with AI infrastructure driving significant growth in electricity demand [12] - The investment focus in the solid-state battery equipment sector is shifting towards production engineering, with expectations for significant growth in the coming years [13]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the investment themes for 2026 in the environmental sector, focusing on overseas expansion, carbon reduction, and pollution control as key strategies under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][6] - The environmental industry is experiencing a transition as domestic infrastructure peaks, with a projected 4.9% year-on-year growth in sector performance for the first three quarters of 2025 [6][28] Policy Guidance - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has not yet met carbon reduction targets, indicating a need for continued efforts in this area, while other environmental goals have been largely achieved [22][24] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to synergize carbon peak and neutrality goals with pollution reduction and green growth initiatives [6][24] Overseas Expansion - The report identifies significant market opportunities in Southeast Asia and Central Asia for waste incineration, with a potential market size in the hundreds of billions [7] - Indonesia's upcoming waste incineration projects are highlighted, with expectations for rapid development starting in Q1 2026, supported by sovereign fund investments [7] - Key companies positioned for overseas expansion include Weiming Environmental, China Everbright, and others [7] Carbon Reduction - The carbon market is evolving, with ongoing improvements in the carbon emission control system and an expected rise in carbon prices [8] - Non-electric green energy sectors, such as renewable energy heating and biofuels, are anticipated to benefit from policy support and growing domestic demand [8] - Companies like Zhuoyue New Energy are noted for their potential in the biofuel sector, particularly in the context of EU anti-dumping influences subsiding [8] Pollution Control - The water and air sectors are expected to see continued investment in pollution control, with companies like Xingrong Environment and Aofu Technology highlighted for their growth potential [9] - The report notes that the implementation of the National VI emissions standards will create opportunities in the automotive emissions control market [9] Diverse Investment Opportunities - The report outlines various investment opportunities arising from new production capabilities, cyclical trends, and debt management strategies within the environmental sector [10] - Companies involved in smart technologies and battery materials are identified as potential beneficiaries of these trends [10]

盘后数据出炉。 12月11日，A股市场主要指数多数下跌。截至收盘，上证指数报3873.32点，下跌0.7%；深证成指报13147.39点，下跌 1.27%；创业板指报3163.67点，下跌1.41%；北证50指数上涨3.84%。A股市场合计成交18854.06亿元，较上一交易日 增加936.25亿元。 1.A股市场主力资金净流出563.42亿元 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | | 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | 2025-12-11 | -563.42 | -129.88 | -111.03 | -332.77 | | 2025-12-10 | -199.82 | -158. 52 | 25. 51 | -58. 52 | | 2025-12-9 | -359.69 | -111.87 | -14.73 | -156. 68 | | 2025-12-8 | 7. 34 | -79.70 | -8. 67 | 59. 68 | | 2025-12-5 | 17. 75 ...

盘后数据出炉。 12月11日，A股市场主要指数多数下跌。截至收盘，上证指数报3873.32点，下跌0.7%；深证成指报13147.39点，下跌1.27%； 创业板指报3163.67点，下跌1.41%；北证50指数上涨3.84%。A股市场合计成交18854.06亿元，较上一交易日增加936.25亿元。 | 行业 | 涨跌幅 | 净流入资金 | 资金流出较多个股 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | | 电子 | -1.63% | -196. 66 | 工业富联 | | 计算机 | -1.81% | -154. 85 | 浪潮信息 | | 机械设备 | -0. 75% | -106. 41 | 华工科技 | | 电力设备 | -0. 44% | -86. 05 | 阳光电源 | | 医药生物 | -1. 19% | -74. 91 | 海王生物 | 1. A股市场主力资金净流出563.42亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出129.88亿元，尾盘净流出111.03亿元，A股市场全天主力资金净流出563.42亿元。 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) ...

南财投研通数据显示，12月10日，券商给予上市公司目标价共9次，按最新收盘价计算，目标价涨幅排名居前的公司有亿联网络、兴福电子、英科再生，目 标价涨幅分别为53.21%、40.35%、35.77%，分别属于通信设备、电子化学品、塑料行业。 首次覆盖方面，12月10日券商共给出了8次首次覆盖，其中贵州轮胎获得环球富盛理财给予"买入"评级，佛塑科技获得招商证券给予"增持"评级，凯众股份 获得东北证券给予"增持"评级，汉得信息获得中信建投证券给予"买入"评级，古麒绒材获得天风证券给予"增持"评级。 | | | 8家最新被首次覆盖的公司 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 机构 | 最新评级 | 行业 | | 000589 | 贵州轮胎 | 环球富盛理财 | 买人 | 汽车零部件 | | 000973 | 佛塑科技 | 招商证券 | 增持 | 塑料 | | 603037 | 凯众股份 | 东北证券 | 増持 | 汽车零部件 | | 300170 | 汉得信息 | 中信建投证券 | 买人 | IT服务 | | 001390 | 古麒绒材 | 天风证 ...

盘后数据出炉。 12月10日，A股市场整体涨跌互现。截至收盘，上证指数报3900.5点，下跌0.23%；深证成指报13316.42 点，上涨0.29%；创业板指报3209点，下跌0.02%；北证50指数下跌0.85%。A股市场合计成交17917.81 亿元，较上一交易日减少1260.88亿元。 1.A股市场主力资金净流出199.82亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出158.52亿元，尾盘净流入25.51亿元，A股市场全天主力资金净流出 199.82亿元。 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | | 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | 2025-12-10 | -199.82 | -158.52 | 25. 51 | -58. 52 | | 2025-12-9 | -359.69 | -111.87 | -14.73 | -156. 68 | | 2025-12-8 | 7. 34 | -79.70 | -8. 67 | 59. 68 | | 2025-12-5 | 17.75 ...