机构：中金公司 合并达达即时配送带动公司收入继续稳健增长；但京东零售部分品类销售承压或影响4Q相关内单收 入。公司外卖全职骑手业务有序发展、收购达达本地即时配送业务，均带动4Q收入继续稳健增长。我 们预计4Q25 公司营收同比增长20%至625 亿元，增速较3Q25（同比增24%）略有放缓，主要考虑内单 收入或受京东零售部分品类销售承压影响：由于社零数据及线上电商大盘表现较弱，叠加国补退坡影 响，中金互联网组预计4Q25 京东零售收入同比下滑3%至2979 亿元；我们预计4Q剔除外卖配送后的内 单业务收入增长或亦有承压。 海外仓一次性货损计提、子集团战略调整，或致公司4Q盈利短期承压，但我们仍看好公司中长期增 长。我们预计4Q25 公司或产生一次性货损计提，主要与部分海外仓相关，例如，12 月23日京东物流位 于巴黎的一处仓库遭盗窃（新华社）。结合公司子集团2H25 正进行业务战略调整，我们预计4Q25 盈利 或短期承压，下调4Q25 non-IFRS净利润24%至22.3 亿元、较4Q24 同比持平。但中长期看，我们持续看 好公司一体化供应链业务能力领先、海外业务快速增长、外卖配送及子集团业务与公司内生业务 ...

研究员：韩军/梁骁 风险分析 机构：中信建投证券 核心观点 公司基本面逻辑未改变，能力建设推动新场景业务增长。外卖秒送配送业务催化营收超速预期，但短期 人工成本、行政管理费用及资源投入扩大使利润释放承压。长期看，把骑手管理纳入进来，由京东物流 统一负责"快递+即配"，可以让小哥同时配送"快递、外卖、闪购"等业态，最大程度发挥人效。未来 以"近45 万快递员+15 余万骑手"为运力池，增强京东物流同城配送能力基础。 事件 12 月26 日，京东物流无人机首次完成海外试飞，这也是公司首次在海外使用无人机进行货物运输，成 为"快递出海"的重要实践。 同日，公司首个海外智狼仓在英国正式投用。 1 月1 日起，2026 年消费品以旧换新补贴正式落地，当天，京东物流在全国多地同步完成2026 年"国 补"首单履约。1 月5 日，首单由机器人参与配送完成的国补订单。 简评 公司目前国际业务占营收比大概不到5%，2026 年预计国际业务的收入延续25 年的高速增长趋势。在科 技方面，公司结合机器人和自动化技术的实际落地推广效果，有序推进自动化设备（无人车、无人机） 及各种机器人的规模部署，资本开支规模会呈现逐年缓慢提升的趋势 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in Q4 2025, with projected revenue of 625 billion RMB and adjusted net profit of 22.6 billion RMB. The focus for 2025 will be on revenue growth and investment, particularly in integrated supply chain and instant delivery services [5]. - The management has undergone changes aimed at enhancing high-value business segments, which is expected to drive steady revenue growth and improve profits in 2026 [5]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards to 76.23 billion, 87.76 billion, and 99.45 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a short-term cost increase due to investments in resources [5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 166.625 billion RMB - 2024: 182.838 billion RMB - 2025E: 216.118 billion RMB - 2026E: 243.312 billion RMB - 2027E: 267.780 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at: - 2023: 21.27% - 2024: 9.73% - 2025E: 18.20% - 2026E: 12.58% - 2027E: 10.06% [4][6]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: 2.761 billion RMB - 2024: 7.917 billion RMB - 2025E: 7.623 billion RMB - 2026E: 8.776 billion RMB - 2027E: 9.945 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for adjusted net profit are projected at: - 2023: 218.79% - 2024: 186.75% - 2025E: -3.71% - 2026E: 15.13% - 2027E: 13.31% [4][6].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a resurgence, with prices surpassing 120,000 yuan/ton, indicating a potential new upward cycle after a significant decline [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand structure for lithium carbonate is shifting from oversupply to a balanced state, with a notable improvement in the supply situation expected by mid-2025 [3][4]. - Supply constraints are emerging as high-cost production is being curtailed, leading to a projected shortage of 21,000 tons for the year [4]. - Current inventory levels for lithium carbonate are low, with social inventory at 116,000 tons and upstream lithium salt plant inventory at 5-6 days, indicating tight supply conditions [4]. Demand Growth - The demand for lithium carbonate is being driven by the rapid growth of power batteries and energy storage, particularly in AI data centers and renewable energy storage [5][6]. - China's energy storage battery shipments for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 430 GWh, exceeding 30% of the total for 2024, with an expected annual growth rate of over 75% [6]. Cost and Production Techniques - The lithium carbonate industry is characterized by significant cost differences due to varying extraction techniques, including spodumene, salt lake, and lepidolite methods [9][11]. - Spodumene extraction is currently the dominant method, accounting for approximately 225,000 tons of production in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 74% [11]. - Salt lake extraction has the lowest production costs, around 30,000 yuan/ton, and is expected to increase its market share significantly [13]. Company Performance and Competitive Landscape - Leading companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Salt Lake Industry are positioned to benefit from the price increase, with Ganfeng having the largest lithium salt production capacity [14][16]. - Ganfeng Lithium's diverse business structure includes chemical materials and battery products, but it faces higher production costs and significant debt levels [16][17]. - Tianqi Lithium has a strong cost advantage in its mining operations, but its production capacity is limited compared to Ganfeng [16][18]. - Salt Lake Industry, with its low-cost extraction methods, is expected to gain a competitive edge in the upcoming cycle due to faster production ramp-up [18].

证券日报网12月12日讯中仑新材（301565）在12月12日回答调研者提问时表示，公司生产的PA6切片以 自用为主，核心用于全资子公司厦门长塑、全资孙公司福建长塑及全资三级子公司印尼长塑(2026年首 条产线投产后)BOPA膜材的生产，同时会根据市场需求对外销售部分产品。除了生产BOPA膜材，PA6 切片还有诸多广泛用途，纺丝纤维级的可用于纺织民用丝制作日常服装，也能制成工业丝用于轮胎帘 线、渔网、安全带等；工程塑料级的PA6被广泛应用于电子电器、机械设备、轨道交通装备、航天航空 领域。公司自建的PA6-BOPA膜材一体化供应链优势显著：一是通过上下游毗邻布局与生产协同，省去 中间环节，减少运输、包装等成本，大幅提升成本竞争力；二是可定制化生产适配PA6切片，从源头把 控质量，提升膜材成品率，同时灵活响应订单、缩短生产周期；三是依托一体化研发平台实现上下游协 同创新，快速迭代高性能产品，抢占市场先机；此外，近距离生产保障了产品品质稳定，且降低碳排 放，契合绿色生产趋势，进一步巩固行业竞争力。 ...

Production Capacity and Progress - The first BOPP production line was officially launched in November 2025, with a second line expected to be operational in the second half of 2026. The first line has achieved stable mass production of various thicknesses of BOPP capacitor film products, with thin films entering mass delivery after customer validation [1] - The BOPP production line focuses on thin and ultra-thin film products, with an estimated annual capacity of approximately 2,400 tons per line, depending on product thickness. A total of nine production lines are planned, with two in the first phase and subsequent lines to be added based on market demand [1] Product Applications and Differentiation - The BOPP film is positioned as ultra-thin electrical-grade film, including capacitor film and electrode film, used in the production of thin-film capacitors and battery electrode collectors. It features strong self-healing, high insulation resistance, low dielectric loss, high dielectric strength, and long service life [2] - In contrast, ordinary BOPP packaging materials are typically around 20 microns thick, focusing on basic packaging protection and appearance, with core characteristics including moderate mechanical strength and good transparency [2] Solid-State Battery Developments - The subsidiary, Xiamen Changsu, has pioneered solid-state battery-specific BOPA film, currently in the market promotion phase. The company is also involved in drafting and implementing standards for aluminum-plastic films used in solid-state batteries [3] - As the solid-state battery industry accelerates, the company plans to closely monitor market penetration rates and promote the production and sales of solid-state battery-specific films [3] Existing and Future Capacity for BOPA and PA6 - The current annual production capacity for PA6 (Nylon 6) chips is 145,000 tons, with 210,000 tons of additional capacity under construction, expected to be operational by 2027 [4][5] - The company currently operates 14 BOPA production lines with a total capacity of 145,000 tons, with plans for additional lines in both domestic and international locations, aiming for a total capacity of 275,000 tons upon completion of all projects [5] Utilization of PA6 Chips - The PA6 chips are primarily used internally for the production of BOPA films, with some sales based on market demand. Besides BOPA films, PA6 chips have various applications in textiles, industrial fibers, and engineering plastics [5] - The integrated supply chain for PA6 and BOPA films enhances cost competitiveness, quality control, and innovation capabilities, aligning with green production trends [5]

Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 55.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, while non-IFRS net profit was 2.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21% [1][2] Revenue Growth - Revenue growth was primarily driven by the participation of full-time riders in JD's delivery services and growth in the group's retail business [1] - Integrated supply chain business revenue significantly increased, with Q3 revenue from integrated supply chain clients rising 46% year-on-year to 30.1 billion yuan [1] - Revenue from JD Group increased by 66% year-on-year to 21.2 billion yuan, benefiting from incremental income from delivery services and retail business growth [1] - External integrated supply chain client revenue grew by 13% year-on-year to 8.9 billion yuan, with client numbers and revenue per client increasing by 13% and 1% respectively [1] Cost and Profitability - The company's profit margin was under short-term pressure due to increased upfront resource investments for delivery services, with employee compensation and benefits rising by 50% year-on-year to 21.8 billion yuan in Q3 [2] - Anticipated marginal improvement in profitability as business volume grows and seasonal capacity utilization increases [2] Strategic Acquisitions and Expansion - The company announced the acquisition of Dada's local on-demand delivery business for approximately 270 million USD, expected to enhance the existing product matrix and optimize last-mile delivery capabilities [2] - Rapid expansion of overseas warehouses since 2025, with collaboration with a new energy vehicle company to provide parts warehouse operations and integrated logistics services in the Middle East [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with current stock price corresponding to 8.7x and 8.0x non-IFRS P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - The target price is set at 18.50 HKD, implying a 56.5% upside potential compared to the current stock price [2]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for JD Logistics for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HKD 18.50, indicating a potential upside of 56.5% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 55.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with a non-IFRS net profit of RMB 2.02 billion and a non-IFRS net profit margin of 3.7%, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - Integrated supply chain customer revenue in Q3 increased by 46% year-on-year to RMB 30.1 billion, driven by a 66% increase in revenue from JD Group to RMB 21.2 billion, primarily due to the contribution from JD's delivery services and retail business growth [3] Group 2: Business Expansion - The company announced the acquisition of Dada's local instant delivery business for approximately USD 270 million, which is expected to enhance the existing product matrix and optimize last-mile delivery capabilities [4] - The company's overseas business is rapidly expanding, with significant growth in overseas warehouse scale since 2025, and a recent collaboration with a new energy vehicle company to provide integrated logistics supply chain services in the Middle East [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the profit forecast for JD Logistics for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HKD 18.50, indicating a potential upside of 56.5% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 55.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with a non-IFRS net profit of CNY 2.02 billion and a non-IFRS net profit margin of 3.7%, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - The integrated supply chain customer revenue in Q3 increased by 46% year-on-year to CNY 30.1 billion, driven by a 66% increase in revenue from JD Group to CNY 21.2 billion, primarily due to the contribution from JD's delivery services and retail business growth [3] Group 2: Business Expansion and Strategic Moves - The company announced the acquisition of Dada's local instant delivery business for approximately USD 270 million, which is expected to enhance the existing product matrix and optimize last-mile delivery capabilities [4] - The overseas business is anticipated to become a second growth curve, with rapid expansion of overseas warehouse scale since 2025, including a partnership with a new energy vehicle company to provide integrated logistics supply chain services in the Middle East [4]

Core Insights - In Q3 2025, JD Group achieved revenue of 299.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - The company's non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2025 was 5.8 billion yuan, a decline of 56% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.9%, down 3.2 percentage points [1] JD Retail - JD Retail generated revenue of 250.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year growth of 11.4%, with operating profit of 14.8 billion yuan, up 27.6% [1] - The electronics and home appliances category experienced a slowdown in growth due to high base effects from trade-in programs, but maintained its leading position through supply chain advantages [1] - The daily necessities category saw revenue growth of 18.8%, approximately four times the industry average, with supermarkets maintaining double-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [1] - The number of active users surpassed 700 million in October, with a significant increase in shopping frequency, particularly during the "1111" shopping event [1] JD Logistics - JD Logistics reported revenue of 55.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, with adjusted net profit reaching 2.02 billion yuan [1] - Integrated supply chain revenue grew by 45.8%, leading the industry in growth [1] - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, with localized operations deepening, including the launch of self-operated express services in Saudi Arabia [1] Investment Outlook - The company's penetration rate across all categories is expected to continue increasing, with projected revenues of 1,339.9 billion yuan, 1,463.1 billion yuan, and 1,586.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 15.6%, 9.2%, and 8.4% respectively [1] - Adjusted net profits (non-GAAP) for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 29.1 billion yuan, 42.6 billion yuan, and 55.2 billion yuan [1] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 12, 8, and 6 for the respective years [1]