Group 1 - Renowned investor Lin Yuan led a team to Guizhou Zhenjiu for an inspection and participated in the Wan Shang Alliance Wealth Creation Forum and the "Zhen Enterprise Meeting" [1][2] - The Wan Shang Alliance is a core strategy for Zhenjiu to address industry changes, focusing on a super product model to reach middle-class consumers and resolve channel pricing issues [2][4] - The "Zhen Enterprise Meeting" aims to create a high-end entrepreneur community that combines commercial value and cultural heritage, enhancing cooperation among members [6][8] Group 2 - Lin Yuan shared investment insights and trends in the liquor industry, emphasizing a demand-driven investment philosophy and the cultural attributes of liquor [12] - He believes that the liquor industry, being cyclical, has shown a long-term upward trend and views the current market conditions as an opportune time for investment in Zhenjiu [12]

Group 1: Industry News - The Sichuan Super League has officially launched, with local liquor companies like Langjiu and Shede participating as sponsors and partners [1][3] - Langjiu has become the chief partner of the Sichuan Super League, planning to launch over 20 co-branded products and engage in extensive marketing across 21 cities in Sichuan [3] - Shede has named itself the sponsor of the Suining team, while Luzhou Laojiao has sponsored the Luzhou team, which will compete under the name "Luzhou Laojiao Team" [3] Group 2: Company Developments - Zhenjiu Li Du Group announced that its new product "Dazhen Zhenjiu" has achieved a revenue of 370 million yuan through a group purchasing model [6][8] - The company has attracted over 7,000 clients to its "Wanshang Alliance," with more than 2,860 clients signing contracts and sales exceeding 100,000 boxes [8] - Baijiu company Yingjia Gongjiu has set a revenue target of 7.6 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.49%, despite facing a decline in the first half of the year [10][11] Group 3: Market Outlook - The general manager of Laobai Ganjiu expressed optimism about improved market demand during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, highlighting significant market potential for family gatherings and celebrations [12] - Xiaohutuxian reported a 15% growth in the third quarter, focusing on banquet and group purchase channels, with banquet sales showing nearly 20% growth year-on-year [14] - Guizhou Moutai's deputy general manager is under investigation for serious violations, which may impact the company's operations [15]

机构：方正证券 研究员：王泽华/卢潇航 事件：1、9 月10 日公司发布公告，通过全资附属公司珍酒商贸采纳联盟商权益支付计划，旨在激励合 资格联盟商，促进公司长期可持续增长及发展。 2、9 月7 日万商联盟计划第二季正式启动。 公司目前初步设定，在未来5 年内，以合计不超过1.69 亿股股份（占总股本5.0%），通过设立境内信托 的形式设立权益支付计划，后续董事会可根据公司需求及市场状况酌情调整期限。授予股份将以"经济 受益单位"形式授予，不附带集团股东大会表决权。符合资格的联盟商将在7-10 年的锁定期后，在完成 对应业绩目标的情况下，得到结算分配。首次授予预期将于2025 年9 月进行。 收回机制：在发生合同违约行为或其他违反情况时，授出的经济受益单位可被收回。 "万商联盟"着力破解当下渠道核心痛点重构行业生态，建立可持续的竞争壁垒，第二季启动有望延续强 劲势头。首季在100 多天内实现签约2418家联盟商、发货1182 家的亮眼成绩，覆盖全国30 个省212 个城 市，推动战略单品大珍珍酒广泛动销。该计划以"万商联盟+大珍珍酒"为核心，通过产品、渠道与收益 机制深度融合，直击行业消费转型、渠道混乱、经销 ...

Group 1 - The core announcement from Zhenjiu Lidu (6979.HK) is the launch of the "Alliance Merchant Equity Payment Plan," which sets an initial economic benefit right corresponding to no more than 169 million shares for the Wan Shang Alliance [1][4] - The company initiated the Wan Shang Alliance plan in May, with 6,414 customers participating in the forum in the first quarter, and currently, 2,418 customers have signed up as alliance merchants [4] - The equity grant period for the "Alliance Merchant Equity Payment Plan" is set for five years, with the board having the discretion to adjust it based on various factors such as procurement scale, compliance records, cooperation duration, and contributions [4][7] Group 2 - The Wan Shang Alliance represents a new business model launched by Zhenjiu Lidu, focusing on deep collaboration between manufacturers and merchants to create a super product, Dazhen Zhenjiu, and to open up a golden sales track in the liquor market [7] - The company aims to establish a short, medium, and long-term revenue system to effectively promote the formation of a community of interests and a community of destiny among manufacturers and merchants [7] - Zhenjiu Lidu plans to launch the second season of the Wan Shang Alliance from September to December [8]

Company Overview - On August 26, the company held a semi-annual performance briefing where the chairman shared the "Wanshang Alliance" plan and interacted with investors [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 44.8% year-on-year, primarily due to adjustments in its flagship products, with expectations of slight declines in the high-end liquor division and old products [1] - The company aims to maintain a clearance strategy in the second half of the year, with overall inventory expected to remain low [1] Product and Market Strategy - The newly launched "Dazhen" product has significantly contributed to growth, with over 50 "Wanshang Alliance" meetings held and more than 2000 distributors signed since its launch on June 17 [2] - The company anticipates signing around 3000 distributors by the end of the year, which is expected to be a core growth driver for the second half [2] - The flat model of "Dazhen" is believed to have strong penetration potential, which could enhance the number of alliance merchants and ensure stable, sustainable profits [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company expects a narrowing of revenue decline in the second half of 2025, with absolute revenue potentially decreasing slightly [2] - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable or slightly increase, while the management expense ratio is expected to rise due to reverse scale effects [2] - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been lowered by 8.3% to 1.1 billion HKD, while the 2026 forecast has been raised by 5.4% to 1.44 billion HKD [2] - The target price has been increased by 27% to 11.2 HKD, reflecting a 31x/24x P/E ratio for 2025/26 adjusted net profit, with a potential upside of 16.8% from the current price [2]

Core Insights - The "Wanshang Alliance" model addresses four major channel pain points: price chaos, high pressure on distributors' funds, profit dilution, and high inventory levels, potentially becoming the company's third growth curve [1] - The Dazhen product will play a strategic role in the product matrix, targeting the 600 yuan price range, aiming to capture both consumption upgrade and downgrade demands, while avoiding direct competition with ultra-high-end products [2] - The company aims to create a natural demand for products through consumer cultivation and atmosphere building, transforming group buyers into hybrid distributors, thus rapidly expanding sales volume [3] Financial Projections - The company expects revenues of 5.666 billion yuan and 6.074 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 19.8% in 2025 and a growth of 7.2% in 2026 [3] - Non-IFRS adjusted net profits are projected to be 1.312 billion yuan and 1.443 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.7% in 2025 and an increase of 10.0% in 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to fully deplete channel inventory this year, with a potential recovery in growth for old products next year, driven by the revenue contribution from the "Da Zhen" product line [1] Group 1: Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been lowered by 8.3% to HKD 1.1 billion, while the forecast for 2026 has been raised by 5.4% to HKD 1.44 billion [1] - The target price has been increased by 27% to HKD 11.2, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 31x for 2025 and 24x for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 16.8% from the current price [1] Group 2: Performance Insights - In the first half of 2025, the revenue for Zhenjiu decreased by 44.8% year-on-year, primarily due to adjustments in Zhen 30 and Zhen 15, while Li Du's revenue fell by 9.4%, the smallest decline among four brands [2] - The company is expected to maintain a clearing strategy in the second half of 2025, with overall inventory likely to remain low [2] Group 3: Product Development - The "Da Zhen" product line has significantly contributed to revenue growth, with over 50 "Wan Shang Alliance" meetings held and more than 2000 distributors signed since its launch on June 17 [3] - The company anticipates signing around 3000 merchants this year, which will be a core growth driver for the second half of the year [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company expects a narrowing of the revenue decline in the second half of 2025, with stable gross margins and slight increases in management expenses due to reverse scale effects [4] - For next year, the revenue from old products is expected to stabilize and slightly increase, with "Da Zhen" continuing to contribute significantly [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the company expects to fully deplete channel inventory this year, with a potential recovery in sales for old products next year, and significant revenue contribution from the "Da Zhen" recruitment initiative [1][2] - The company has adjusted its 2025 net profit forecast down by 8.3% to HKD 1.1 billion, while raising the 2026 forecast by 5.4% to HKD 1.44 billion, leading to a target price increase of 27% to HKD 11.2 [1] - The current price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 27x for 2025 and 21x for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 16.8% [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 44.8%, primarily due to adjustments in its premium products, but channel inventory has significantly decreased to a reasonable level [3] - The company is expected to maintain a clearing strategy in the second half of 2025, with a further narrowing of revenue decline anticipated [3] - The "Da Zhen" product, launched on June 17, has already signed over 2,000 distributors and is projected to sign around 3,000 by the end of the year, becoming a key growth driver [4] Group 3 - The company anticipates a reduction in the revenue decline in the second half of 2025, with stable gross margins and slight increases in management expenses due to reverse scale effects [5] - Looking ahead to next year, the company expects stable growth for old products and continued significant contributions from "Da Zhen," with Li Du projected to achieve steady growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhenjiu Lidu, is navigating industry challenges by implementing a dual innovation strategy in products and business models, aiming to find new growth points amidst market fluctuations [5][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Zhenjiu Lidu achieved a revenue of 2.497 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 613 million yuan [2]. - The company's gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 59%, while the adjusted net profit margin remained stable compared to the previous year [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company launched the "Super Product" Dazhen Zhenjiu, targeting the mid-range market with a price point of 600 yuan, which is positioned against products priced at 3000 yuan [5]. - The "Wanshang Alliance" initiative aims to recruit thousands of alliance merchants to create a nationwide distribution network, addressing industry challenges such as profit compression and price discrepancies [5][6]. Market Positioning - Dazhen Zhenjiu is expected to tap into the growing middle-class and small business owner demographic, which is seen as the future consumer base [5]. - The product has already gained significant traction in key cities like Beijing, Zhengzhou, and Qingdao, becoming a phenomenon in the market [6]. Investor Engagement - The company expressed gratitude to investors for their long-term support and highlighted the importance of adapting to macroeconomic uncertainties and industry adjustments [2][5]. - During the investor meeting, representatives from various investment institutions acknowledged the company's proactive measures in enhancing product, business model, and communication strategies during the industry downturn [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to high base effects, cyclical downturns, and market disruptions, while maintaining operational control and cost management [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 570 million RMB, down 23.5% year-on-year, while the non-IFRS net profit was 610 million RMB, reflecting a 39.8% decline [1] - The adjusted net profit margin for H1 2025 was 24.6%, showing a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating strong cost and expense control [2] Group 2: Brand and Product Performance - Revenue from the brands Zhenjiu, Lidu, and others fell by 44.8%, 9.4%, and 47.9% respectively, with Lidu managing to achieve some growth through enhanced marketing strategies [1] - The company’s gross profit margin improved by 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to an increase in Lidu's revenue share [2] - The number of cooperative distributors decreased by 516, or 6.8%, as part of the company's strategy to stabilize channels [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to launch a new flagship product, Dazhen Zhenjiu, to drive sales growth and enhance market presence [3] - There is a focus on deepening the penetration of existing core products and strengthening the layout of mid-to-high-end products to capture dining demand [3] - The innovative "Wanshang Alliance" channel model for Dazhen aims to boost merchant confidence and drive sales through low entry barriers and high returns [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a narrowing of revenue decline in H2 2025, supported by the launch of Dazhen and a recovery in demand [2][3] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are set at 1.27 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.97 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding non-IFRS PE ratios of 24.0, 19.0, and 15.5x [3]